CDS Daily brief (01.06.23) | CDS comments on key events

Snapshot of the day:

General, humanitarian:

• Kyiv was struck by 10 ballistic missiles during a nighttime attack. Explosions occurred 6 minutes after the air raid alert. 3 people were killed, including an 11-year-old girl.
• As a result of the Russian attacks, 484 children were killed, and 992 were injured.
• Ukrainian prosecutors officially charged 35 persons with war crimes against children. Indictments against 30 persons have been sent to the court. 11 people were convicted.

Military: 

• Russian forces aim to capture Khromove to set conditions for future efforts to advance towards Kramatorsk. Intensified artillery fire has been observed in the area to support this objective.
• Chechen units can be used as assault units, but due to their limited numbers, it is not feasible to deploy them simultaneously in multiple directions.
• The Russian military command transfers irregular formations and units of the so-called DNR from the Avdiivka area to the Bakhmut area.
• Russian forces are replacing old and worn-out equipment, including T-72 and T-62 tanks, and air defense systems in southern Ukraine. The equipment is being moved towards Mangush and Berdyansk, fearing Ukrainian strikes on Mariupol.

International:

• Germany has delivered a security package to Ukraine and promised more. The U.S. awarded a contract to purchase and deliver Gepard 35 mm air defense systems to Ukraine. Ukraine’s President met with the informal ‘fighter jet coalition’ leaders, which was joined by Dutch and Polish PMs.
• The European Parliament voted for the Act in Support of Ammunition Production.
• Ukraine’s President called on the NATO leaders for a “clear invitation for membership of Ukraine.” Foreign Affairs Committees Chairpersons’ (from twenty-one countries) called for “Full Implementation of Bucharest NATO Summit Decisions on Ukraine’s NATO Membership.” “NATO Summit at Vilnius in July will be seen as a failure of NATO credibility if there is no clear, concrete message about Ukraine’s eventual membership in NATO,” General Ben Hodges said.
• “Ukraine’s rightful place is in NATO,” British Foreign Secretary James Cleverly stated. Secretary of State Antony Blinken reaffirmed the Bucharest commitment and said that NATO will be “focused intensely on what we can do to strengthen even more the relationship between Ukraine and NATO and to continue to bring Ukraine up to NATO standards, interoperability.”
• Russia relaunched its food blackmail by unilaterally applying unlawful restrictions to registering ships heading to Ukrainian ports under the Black Sea Grain Initiative, demanding facilitation of its fertilizer export.

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Humanitarian aspect

On June 1, Ukraine celebrates International Children’s Day. The Prosecutor General’s Office provides procedural guidance in proceedings regarding more than 2,900 war-related crimes against children: murder and injury, sexual violence, attacks on institutions and institutions for children, deportation, forced transfer, abduction,” the Office of the Prosecutor General said in a statement. 

As a result of the Russian attacks, 484 children were killed, and 992 were injured. 393 children have been considered missing in Ukraine since the beginning of the full-scale war. 13 cases of sexual violence against minors were confirmed. More than 2,500 educational institutions were damaged. 256 of them were completely destroyed. Prosecutors officially charged 35 persons with war crimes against children. Indictments against 30 persons have been sent to the court. 11 people were convicted. 

At least 2,150 children from the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine were forcibly taken to the territory of Belarus, where anti-Ukrainian narratives and the ideology of Ruscism are imposed on them, said the head of the People’s Anti-Crisis Administration, deputy head of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus Pavlo Latushko. He clarified that it was established that these crimes were financed from the budget of the union state of Russia and Belarus in the amount of at least 29 million Russian rubles. The relocation of the children takes place with the help of the Dolphin Foundation from the occupied Donetsk Oblast and the Belarusian Foundation of Oleksiy Talay.

Currently, at least 20,000 children deported by Russia have been identified, more than 4,500 of whom have the status of orphans or are deprived of parental care, Deputy Prime Minister – Minister for Reintegration of the Temporarily Occupied Territories Iryna Vereshchuk said.

Russian attacks

On the night of June 1, Kyiv was once again targeted by Russia in an aerial attack, using 10 ballistic missiles. There was a 6-minute interval between the air alert and the subsequent explosions in the city. The anti-aircraft defense system successfully intercepted all incoming missiles, but falling debris caused damage and casualties. The Kyiv police have reported the death of 3 civilians, including 1 child, and 12 individuals injured. The issue of the availability of bomb shelters has become a hot topic for discussion as at least two people died trying to get into a locked shelter. The national police launched an investigation into the matter. 

The Russian military continued attacking other Ukrainian regions as well. Some consequences of the attacks:

• At night, the Russian army struck the Synelnykove district, and in the morning, it shelled the Nikopol district of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast with heavy artillery. No civilian death or injuries were reported. Civilian homes and a power line were damaged.
• Two people died, and 5 were injured in Donetsk Oblast as a result of Russian attacks. The overall death toll in the Oblast stands at 1,539, with 3,620 individuals wounded. The numbers do not include the exact number of victims in Mariupol and Volnovakha because the exact number is currently impossible to establish.
• The Russian army shelled Kherson Oblast 61 times in the past day (309 shells), targeting residential areas. One person died, five people were injured, one of them a child.
• The Russian army fired 78 times on populated areas of Zaporizhzhia Oblast. 20 towns and villages came under Russian fire. 23 reports of house destruction were filed. There were no casualties.

Occupied territories

According to the Berdyansk city military administration, two Russian ships entered the port of the temporarily occupied Berdyansk of the Zaporizhzhia Oblast, where they are being loaded with grain and metal stolen from Ukrainian owners. The local residents have observed incidents like this in April of this year, the administration said. 

The “primaries” of the Russian ruling party “United Russia” in Kherson Oblast saw minimal participation, primarily involving collaborators and their relatives, stated Yuriy Sobolevsky, the first deputy chairman of the Kherson regional council. Sobolevsky highlighted instances where individuals were coerced into participating. He suggests that the occupiers set a certain plan for local collaborators – how many people should come. And they tried to implement it, threatening that the Russian military and the FSB would arrest locals for refusing to participate as evidence of their a pro-Ukrainian position.

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Operational situation

General conclusion: 

• The Russian military concentrates its main efforts on defensive operations in all directions, trying to complete the capture of Maryinka, locally improve its tactical position in the Kupyansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Maryinka directions;
• Russian forces aim to capture Khromove to set conditions for future efforts to advance towards Kramatorsk. To achieve this objective, they have intensified artillery fire in the area.;
• Chechen units can be used as assault units, but due to their limited numbers, it is not feasible to deploy them simultaneously in multiple directions.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

• 22 combat clashes took place in different directions.
• On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked in the areas to the west of Masyutivka, Kharkiv Oblast and in the direction of Novoselivske and Stelmakhivka, Luhansk Oblast. Russian troops failed to advance near Krokhmalne.
• On the Lyman direction, Russian forces carried out unsuccessful offensive actions south of Bilohorivka. Ukrainian Defense forces slightly advanced to the northeast of the village.
• On the Bakhmut direction, during the past day, the Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive actions in the directions of Orikhovo-Vasylivka and Bila Hora. Fighting continues in-between Ivanivske and Klishchiivka, and positional battles continue near Klishchiivka.
• On the Avdiivka direction, Russian forces made a limited advance to the north of Krasnohorivka, attacked from Kamianka and advanced to new positions northeast of Avdiivka; they conducted unsuccessful offensive actions near Severne. Clashes also continued near Vodyane.
• On the Maryinka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled all attacks by the assault units of the 5th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 1st Army Corps and the “Akhmat” units in the Maryinka area.

Change in enemy disposition: 

• The 1st Subversive and Reconnaissance Brigade “Volky (Wolves),” previously active in the Avdiivka area, is currently operating near Zaliznyanske.
• The artillery of the 127th motorized rifle division and combined detachment “Cascade” operate in the Shakhtarsk direction.
• The Russian military command transfers irregular formations and units of the so-called DNR from the Avdiivka area to the Bakhmut area.
• The Russian battalion “Akhmat-Yug” is operating in the Orikhiv direction.

Escalation indicators: 

• Russian forces are replacing old and worn-out equipment, including T-72 and T-62 tanks, and air defense systems in southern Ukraine. The equipment is being moved towards Mangush and Berdyansk, fearing Ukrainian strikes on Mariupol.

Possible operation situation developments: 

• The enemy will attempt to improve its tactical position ahead of the Ukrainian counteroffensive by conducting localized offensive actions on selected directions.
• Defense forces will continue to shape the operational space, preparing favorable conditions for the conduct of the counteroffensive operation.

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area: 

• As of the morning of June 1, there were 9 Russian ships deployed at sea, primarily conducting patrols near Novorossiysk. Among them are 3 vessels, including a corvette and two project 636.3 submarines, equipped with Kalibr missiles capable of launching up to 16 missiles in total. Notably, these ships have not been involved in missile attacks on Ukraine over the past week. This could suggest that their current objective is to deter any potential counteroffensive by the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
• The activities of the enemy’s naval formations are as follows: In readiness to launch missile strikes on targets in Ukraine’s territory, there are three carriers of Kalibr missiles in the following areas:
  • Project 636.3 submarine located southwest of Novorossiysk.
  • Project 636.3 submarine located northeast of Sochi.
  • Project 21631 corvette “Grayvoron” located north of Sinop. 
• In the areas of deployment and transitions in the Black Sea:
  • Patrol ship of project 22160 “Pavel Derzhavin” with the Tor-M2KM air defense system on board, located southeast of the Taman Peninsula.
  • Project 22870 tugboat “SB-742” located south of the Kerch Strait.
  • Project 22870 tugboat “Kapitan Guryev” located southwest of Novorossiysk. 
• Only one FSB corvette of the “Izumrud” type is at sea near Crimea.

• Russian aviation continues to fly from the Crimean airfields of Belbek, Saky, Dzhankoy and Hvardiyske over the sea. Six fighter aircraft from Belbek and Saki Air Force Bases were involved in monitoring the surface and air conditions in the northwestern part of the Black Sea, namely two Su-27/30 (BELBEK), two Su-30SM, one Su-24M and one MiG-29 UK (SAKY). 
• Air situation control and operational-tactical aviation management over the Azov Sea were carried out by the A-50U Airborne Early Warning and Control aircraft.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 01.06.23 

Personnel – almost 208,370 people (+460);

Tanks 3,804 (+2);

Armored combat vehicles – 7,478 (+6);

Artillery systems – 3,474 (+14);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 575 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 333 (0);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 6,239 (+9);

Aircraft – 313 (0);

Helicopters – 298 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 3,131 (+7);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,107 (0);

Boats/ships – 18 (0).

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Ukraine, general news

For the second month in a row, Ukrainian business maintains an optimistic assessment of their current activity. Construction companies, in particular, are forecasting growth in their sector for the first time in the past year and a half, according to the monthly survey of the National Bank. “The successful restoration of the energy system, the revival of domestic demand, in particular due to the gradual return of Ukrainians from abroad, as well as the strengthening of the hryvnia contributed to positive sentiments regarding the economic results of the respondents in the near future,” the NBU explained.

International diplomatic aspect

Germany disclosed its delivery to Ukraine ammunition for Leopard 1 MBTs, two 8×8 HX81 trucks, and seven remote-controlled THeMIS infantry vehicles. Berlin also announced it would deliver new sixty-four tracked Bandvagn 206 vehicles and sixty-six APCs. U.S. DOD awarded a $118,3 million firm-fixed-price contract for the purchase and delivery of Gepard 35 mm air defense systems to Ukraine. The Dutch and Polish Prime Ministers announced their intentions to launch an F-16 fighter jet training program for Ukraine. 

While in Chișinău, the Ukrainian President met with the leaders of the informal ‘fighter jet coalition’ (Prime Ministers of the U.K., Netherlands, Denmark, Poland, Sweden, and Belgium). Poland announced the delivery of security assistance (two Hercules planes and four CASA planes full of weapons, ammunition, and other equipment) to Moldova, which is under the direct and hybrid threat posed by Russia.

The European Parliament voted (446 aiys and 67 neys) for a draft of the Act in Support of Ammunition Production aimed to accelerate the delivery of ammunition and missiles to Ukraine and to help member states restock their arsenals. It envisages €500 million in financing.

“This year is for decisions. In the summer in Vilnius at the NATO summit, a clear invitation for membership of Ukraine is needed, and the security guarantees on the way to NATO membership are needed,” President Zelenskyy said while attending the European Political Community summit in Moldova. He added that “there should be no place for any frozen conflict and cold war on our continent. When there are no security guarantees, there are only war guarantees.” 

“NATO Summit at Vilnius in July will be seen as a failure of NATO credibility if there is no clear, concrete message about Ukraine’s eventual membership in NATO. Kremlin will celebrate that once again, we wilted under the threat of their aggression. The POTUS leadership is key,” General Ben Hodges twitted. He retweeted Foreign Affairs Committees Chairpersons’ call for “Full Implementation of Bucharest NATO Summit Decisions on Ukraine’s NATO Membership.” “We are confident that Ukraine’s NATO membership would greatly contribute to the Alliance’s security and would help the Russian society to finally get rid of the imperial dreams, which Putin is using to consolidate his regime,” the statement reads. The Chairpersons called on the NATO governments to “make the NATO Vilnius Summit to create a clear path for Ukraine accession to NATO and give clear and strong security guarantees for Ukraine.”

“Ukraine’s rightful place is in NATO,” British Foreign Secretary James Cleverly twitted. “Everyone here stands behind the Bucharest commitment. That hasn’t changed. We’re focused intensely on what we can do to strengthen even more the relationship between Ukraine and NATO and to continue to bring Ukraine up to NATO standards, interoperability,” Antony Blinken said after NATO’s Foreign ministerial in Oslo. “We don’t know when the war ends, but we must make sure that when it does, we have credible arrangements to guarantee Ukraine’s security in the future,” NATO’s Secretary-General said.

Russia relaunched its food blackmail by unilaterally applying unlawful restrictions to the registration of ships heading to Ukrainian ports under the Black Sea Grain Initiative. 50 vessels are awaiting inspection in Turkish territorial waters loaded with 2.4 million tonnes of Ukrainian agricultural commodities ready to be exported to countries in need. Some vessels had been waiting for inspections for more than three months. Moscow demands to facilitate its export of fertilizers via Ukraine’s territory, while it refuses to extend the number of Ukrainian ports and goods for Ukraine to export. Meanwhile, Russia boosted its fertilizers exports to India to over $3 billion (some 34 million tons of fertilizers of 55 million it produces annually) in 2022-2023.

Russia, relevant news

According to the Russian opposition resource “Sirena,” basements of residential buildings in Moscow are being converted into bomb shelters. Instructions for evacuation and the collection of “alarm suitcases” are reportedly placed in these basements. Additionally, a contract for designing a bomb shelter for the Central Clinical Hospital near the Kremlin has appeared on the website of Russian state procurement, with the capacity to accommodate 800 people.

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