CDS Daily brief (02.06.23) | CDS comments on key events

Snapshot of the day:

General, humanitarian:

• During the night, the air defense systems destroyed 15 cruise missiles and 21 kamikaze drones over Kyiv;
• Over the past day, the Russian military attacked 10 Ukrainian Oblasts. 3 people died and 41 were injured;
• The Russian occupation authorities in Crimea are seizing real estate from Ukrainian citizens who do not have Russian passports;
• In Kherson Oblast, residents are required to obtain a Russian passport by September 1, 2023, with a mandatory written refusal of a Ukrainian passport.

Military: 

• Russian forces captured Masyutivka in Kharkiv Oblast;
• Artillery and army aviation of the Ukrainian Defense Forces significantly intensified their activity in Zaporizhzhia Oblast during the last 24 hours;
• In the past month, the Ukrainian Defense Forces successfully neutralized Russian artillery, significantly reducing the strike capability of Russian firepower in anticipation of a counteroffensive.

Sea:

• The Russian naval group will remain positioned beyond the range of the Ukrainian Navy’s strike capabilities; the probability of the enemy operational landing on the Black Sea coast will remain very low;
• There is a high probability of Russian missile and artillery attacks, as well as kamikaze drone strikes, targeting base points, ships, and boats of the Ukrainian Navy.
• The Black Sea Grain initiative has been halted once again as Russia has unreasonably blocked the registration of incoming fleets to all ports in Ukraine.

International:

• DOD awarded a communications services contract to SpaceX to support Ukraine. The U.S. is seeking to secure supplies of Japanese TNT to produce artillery shells for Ukraine. The Swiss Parliament rejected a proposal to authorize the re-export of Swiss-made defense articles to Ukraine.
• Antony Blinken rejects the concept of a ceasefire that merely solidifies existing lines and allows Russia to strengthen its hold on captured territories, preparing for future aggression.
• Lula da Silva slightly changed his rhetorical stance on Ukraine, likely, hoping to get economic benefits from the E.U.
• Viktor Orban called to stop the counter-offensive and “convince the parties of the need for a ceasefire and peace negotiations.” 

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Russian attacks

On the night of June 2, Ukraine’s air defense forces destroyed 15 cruise missiles and 21 kamikaze drones over Kyiv. The attack came in two waves; around 23:00 the Russians attacked Kyiv with Shahed-136/131 kamikaze drones from the south. Then, around 03:00, Tu-95ms bombers with X-101/X-555 cruise missiles entered Ukrainian airspace from the northern direction, attacking Kyiv. They maneuvered, trying to mislead Ukrainian air defense. Several power transmission lines were shut down in Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast due to the night attack. 

The Russian Armed Forces attacked ten regions of Ukraine over the past day.

• During a night attack in Kyiv Oblast, the enemy launched rockets and drones simultaneously. All targets were destroyed, no hits were recorded. At least two people, including a child, were injured by falling debris. Five private houses were damaged by debris.
• Chernihiv Oblast was shelled 10 times and hit with an airstrike from helicopters (unguided aerial missiles). 5 houses and 5 farm buildings burned down. No victims. 
• Sumy Oblast was shelled 6 times (17 explosions) at night and in the morning. 6 communities came under fire. One person was injured as a result of artillery shelling. Yesterday, during the day, the Russians carried out 15 shellings. 100 explosions were recorded. 
• In Zaporizhzhia Oblast, the enemy carried out 111 attacks on 22 towns and villages. A Russian projectile hit a residential building killing a 68-year-old resident of Hulyaipole. A family of two people was injured by the shelling in Plavni. 31 new reports were filed about the destruction of housing and people’s property.
• Artillery fire and two UAV attacks were recorded in the Nikopol district of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Two people were injured. Infrastructure objects, a five-story residential building, 2 private residential buildings, 3 cars, 2 power lines, and a gas pipeline were damaged. A drone attack was recorded in Marhanets. One civilian was injured. 
• A rocket attack was launched on Kharkiv. The enterprise’s building was damaged, and the hardware shop’s building was destroyed. Two people were injured. Three people were injured in Vovchansk, Chuhuyiv district, which was shelled from Russian territory. 
• Russians carried out 94 shellings of Luhansk Oblast, firing 396 shells.
• In Donetsk Oblast, there were 38 attacks on 20 towns and villages, resulting in damage to 22 residential buildings (including three multi-apartment buildings), two power lines, a factory, an agro-firm, seven buildings of the Selydiv penal colony, two farm buildings, a police station, a garage, and a gas pipeline. Three people died and 12 were injured.
• In Mykolaiv Oblast, air defense destroyed a Shahed-136 attack drone. Yesterday, the enemy made two artillery strikes on the water area of the Ochakiv community. Two villages of the Kutsurub community were shelled during the day. Residential buildings were damaged. 
• The enemy carried out 81 shellings of Kherson Oblast, firing 381 shells. Kherson was fired upon 9 times (38 shells). Two men were injured. The enemy continues to destroy Beryslav with guided aerial bombs, once again directing them to residential quarters and a bread factory. Overall, 16 people were injured.

Occupied territories

In the temporarily occupied Crimea, the occupation authorities are confiscating real estate from Ukrainian citizens who do not possess Russian passports, according to the National Resistance Center of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense. The illegally seized properties are being used to accommodate representatives of the occupying forces and collaborators who fled from the occupied southern regions of Ukraine.

According to the Ukrainian General Staff, Russian occupiers persist in pressuring Ukrainian citizens residing in the occupied areas of Kherson Oblast to obtain Russian passports. The occupation administration has established a deadline of September 1, 2023, for obtaining a Russian passport, with a mandatory written refusal of a Ukrainian passport. Individuals who refuse to acquire Russian documents face threats of electricity cutoffs, deportation, property confiscation, and forced eviction from their residences.

According to the State Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s press service, Russian occupiers have severely degraded the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant  emergency preparedness and response system. The occupation administration has issued orders to block the transmission of information from the Automated System for Monitoring the Radiation Situation (ASCRO) at the Zaporizhzhya NPP. Oleg Korikov, the head of the State Atomic Energy Regulatory Commission and the acting head of the IAEA, have confirmed that the IAEA was informed of the incident but did not respond with any measures.

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Operational situation

General conclusion: 

• The Russian military concentrates its main efforts on defensive operations in all directions. They are trying to complete the capture of Maryinka and locally improve the tactical position in the Kupyansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Maryinka directions;
• Russian forces captured Masyutivka in Kharkiv Oblast and are trying to develop success in the western direction;
• The activity of the strike aviation of the Russian Air Force remains high;
• During the past month, the Ukrainian Defense Forces have successfully neutralized enemy artillery (up to 1.5 divisions per day), thereby reducing the enemy’s firepower and offensive capabilities ahead of the counteroffensive.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

• 25 combat clashes took place in different directions.
• In the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked in the areas to the west of Masyutivka, Kharkiv Oblast, near Kuzemivka and in the direction of Stelmakhivka in Luhansk Oblast. Russian troops achieved minor successes southeast of Masyutivka. Units of the 6th Army of the Western Military District of the Russian Armed Forces repelled two Defense Forces’ attacks in the area of the Movchanove railway station. Fighting continues near Dvorichna.
• In the Lyman direction, Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensives in the area of Bilohorivka in Luhansk Oblast and Spirne in Donetsk Oblast. Airborne units of the Russian Armed Forces advanced 2 km near Kreminna.
• In the Bakhmut direction, Russian forces carried out airstrikes in the areas of Khromove, Bila Hora, and Oleksandro-Shultyne of Donetsk Oblast. They conducted unsuccessful offensives in the areas of Orikhovo-Vasylivka and Bila Hora. Russian troops repelled attacks by the Ukrainian Defense Forces near the Berkhiv Reservoir. The Defense Forces maintain control over the southwestern outskirts and the entrance to the city of Bakhmut.
• In the Avdiivka direction, the units of the 1st Army Corps tried to advance in the direction of Severne. They unsuccessfully attempted to storm the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces in the Pobieda and Novomykhailivka areas.
• In the Maryinka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled all attacks by the assault units of the 5th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 1st Army Corps and the “Akhmat” units in the Maryinka area.

Change in enemy disposition: 

• The process of replacing “Wagner” PMC units with units from the 1st Army Corps of the 8th Army of the Southern Military District in Bakhmut is nearing completion, with the announced deadline set for June 5.
• The 10th tank regiment of the 3rd Army Corps of the Western Military District operates in the Avdiivka direction.

Escalation indicators: 

• Over the past 24 hours, the artillery and army aviation of the Ukrainian Defense Forces have significantly increased their activity in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

Possible operation situation developments: 

• The Russian forces will try to improve their tactical position on the eve of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, conducting local offensive actions in selected directions;
• The Ukrainian Defense Forces will continue to shape the operational space, preparing favorable conditions for a counteroffensive operation.

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area: 

• As of June 2, there were 7 Russian ships at sea. They patrol the areas near Crimea and along the coast of the Taman Peninsula (from Novorossiysk to Sochi). 3 of them (a frigate, a corvette and a project 636.3 corvette submarine) are equipped with “Kalibr” missiles, with a total salvo capacity of up to 20 missiles. Naval carriers of Kalibr missiles have not been involved in missile strikes on Ukraine since May 19. They did not participate in the last night’s attacks despite the presence of missile carriers at sea, including the frigate “Admiral Essen,” which completed its dock repairs and set sail. It is possible that the maritime missile carriers have been tasked with preparing to counter a potential Ukrainian counteroffensive and accumulating missiles for that purpose.
• The actions of the enemy’s naval groups are as follows:
  • pr. 11356 “Admiral Essen” frigate – southeast of FEODOSIA;
  • pr. 21631 “Ingushetia” corvette – on the outer raid of NOVOROSISK;
  • pr. 21631 “Grayvoron” corvette – to the northeast of the Bosphorus strait;
  • pr. 864 “Priazovye” reconnaissance ship – near Cape KHERSONES.
• The Russian Navy ships continue their search and rescue operation to locate the debris of the downed Su-35 aircraft.
• Pr. 22160 “Vasily Bykov” patrol boat is positioned north of the Bosporus Strait to provide further escort for the maritime dry cargo transport “Sparta-IV” belonging to the group of companies “Oboronlogistika” of the Russian Federation, bound for the port of Novorossiysk. It is likely that the “Sparta-IV” transport is carrying Iranian weapons to Russia for the war against Ukraine.
• At the main basing points:
  • Sevastopol – over 70 ships and support vessels, including one carrier of “Kalibr” missiles (Project 636.3 submarine) and 4 amphibious ships (3 of which are under repair).
  • Novorossiysk – around 30 ships and vessels, including five missile carriers (2 Project 636.3 submarines, 1 Project 11356 frigate, and 1 Project 21631 corvette) and 6 amphibious ships.

• Russian aviation continues to fly from the Crimean airfields of Belbek, Saky, Dzhankoy and Hvardiyske over the sea. Five fighter aircraft from Belbek and Saki Air Force Bases were involved in monitoring the surface and air conditions in the northwestern part of the Black Sea, namely two Su-27/30 (BELBEK), two Su-30SM and one MiG-29 UK (SAKY). 
• Air situation control and operational-tactical aviation management over the Azov Sea were carried out by the A-50U Airborne Early Warning and Control aircraft.

Possible developments:

• The enemy naval grouping will remain outside the striking range of the offensive capabilities of the combined forces’ grouping of the Ukrainian Navy. The probability of the enemy operational landings on the Black Sea coast will remain very low.
• There is a significant likelihood of enemy attacks targeting Ukraine’s naval bases and fleet using missile and artillery systems, as well as kamikaze drones.
• The probability of intensive enemy actions in the DNIPRO-BUGH, DNIPRO or BUGH estuaries will remain very low and will be limited to fire control of the water area.

The “Grain Initiative”

• The grain initiative has been halted once again as Russia has blocked the registration of incoming fleets to all ports in Ukraine. The Joint Coordination Center (JCC) in Istanbul has announced that due to the groundless refusal of the Russian delegation to register the incoming fleet, it was impossible to create an inspection plan for June 1. On May 30 and 31, Russia only registered one incoming vessel for inspection at the port of Chornomorsk, while the other parties confirmed 10 vessels for three ports of the Black Sea Initiative. Russia’s obstructive stance and the lack of registered vessels for inspection have made it impossible to establish an inspection plan for the current day, as notified by the Secretariat of the JCC to all parties. Currently, 50 ships are waiting in the inspection queue in Turkish territorial waters, carrying approximately 2.4 million tons of food for the world. Some vessels have been waiting for over three months for JCC inspection, resulting in losses of over $1 billion and impacting the final cost of food worldwide. Once again, Russia has found a means to restrict the global food supply. The blocking of the registration of new incoming fleets and the largest port, “Pivdenny,” represents a blatant violation of the terms of the Grain Initiative, to which Russia, the aggressor country, is also a signatory.
• The Ukrainian delegation sent a letter to the JCC Secretariat demanding to resume full-time operations, per JCC procedures, involving three inspection teams and conducting nine inspections per day. Ukrainian inspectors are currently present at the JCC and are prepared to commence their work promptly, contingent upon the re-registration of vessels.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 02.06.23 

Personnel – almost 208,910 people (+540);

Tanks – 3,819 (+15);

Armored combat vehicles – 7,490 (+12);

Artillery systems – 3,501 (+27);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 575 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 335 (+2);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 6,267 (+28);

Aircraft – 313 (0);

Helicopters – 298 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 3,137 (+6);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,117 (+10);

Boats/ships – 18 (0).

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Ukraine, general news

The State Enterprise Multimedia Platform for Foreign Languages of Ukraine has launched The Gaze YouTube channel about Ukraine for English-speaking audiences. The channel introduces the Western audience to “the phenomenon of the countries of the new Europe and Ukraine as its component, with its people, history, nature, culture, politics, economy and influence on the global future,” the Culture and Information Policy Minister Oleksandr Tkachenko said. 

According to the Ukrainian Grain Association (UZA), Ukraine is projected to harvest 68 million tons of grain and oilseeds in 2023. This represents a decrease of 5.3 million tons compared to 2022 and a significant 36% decline compared to the pre-war year of 2021, when the harvest reached 106 million tons. The UZA also estimates that the total sown area will be around 19.5 million hectares, down from the previous years’ 25 million hectares. As of June 1, the Ministry of Agrarian Policy reports that 12 million hectares have already been sown.

International diplomatic aspect

The U.S. DOD has awarded a communications services contract to SpaceX to support Ukraine, which operates over 4,000 Starlink units. In addition, the U.S. is in talks with Japan regarding the supply of TNT for 155mm artillery shells for Ukraine. Despite its evolving security policy, Japan still faces limitations on exporting weapons to foreign nations, although specific components may not be subject to these restrictions. 

German Minister of Defense Boris Pistorius reiterated his cautious stance on providing Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine during a meeting in Cologne. He stated that his position on the matter remains unchanged. The Swiss Parliament rejected a proposal to authorize the re-export of Swiss-made defense articles to Ukraine (98 ayes, 75 nays). Prior to this, the Security Policy Committee had passed two motions to ease re-export rules, which a Senate committee subsequently approved.

“A ceasefire that simply freezes current lines in place,” allowing Vladimir Putin to “consolidate control over the territory he has seized, and rest, rearm, and reattack — that is not a just and lasting peace,” U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said. He emphasized the importance of working towards a just and lasting peace, offering support to any nation, including Brazil and China, that contributes to achieving this goal. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of Brazil reiterated his country’s stance on Ukraine’s territorial integrity and condemned the invasion during a joint press conference with President Sauli Niinistö of Finland. 

Lula da Silva expressed his hopes that the E.U. and MERCOSUR, a Latin American trade bloc, will reach a balanced free trade agreement during the upcoming summit between the E.U. and the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States in July. “China believes that if we really want to put an end to war, to save lives and realize peace, it is important for us to stop sending weapons to the battlefield, or else the tensions will only spiral up,” China’s special envoy for Eurasian affairs Li Hui called on democratic governments to abandon Ukraine.

While leaders of NATO nations, strategists, and experts are working out the right approach for the Vilnius summit in July, there’s a coordinated effort to deny Ukraine a prospect of receiving a tangible promise and pushing for a “ceasefire.” “We must do everything possible, even before the counteroffensive, to convince the parties of the need for a ceasefire and peace negotiations,” the Hungarian PM stated.

Former Ukrainian Defense Minister Andriy Zagorodnyuk (CDS) argued in Foreign Affairs that Ukraine should join NATO without delay but acknowledged that it is unlikely to happen shortly. He called on NATO governments to move beyond vague promises and focus on specific actions to support Ukraine’s membership. He believes that “now is the time for NATO to start strengthening itself and bringing in Ukraine is essential to accomplishing this task. No state, after all, knows more about how to fight back against the Kremlin. In fact, no country has more current experience fighting large-scale wars anywhere. Ukraine’s only peer is Russia itself.”

Russia, relevant news

A significant drop in prices has been recorded in the luxury real estate market in the suburbs of Moscow. Over the past year, prices for real estate have fallen by 45%, Russian Interfax reports. According to the Russian Inkom-Real Estate agency, the average house price decreased from 131.6 million to 72.1 million rubles. The proposition on the market remained practically unchanged. At the same time, in the economy class, which makes up 78% of the market, new housing prices increased by 20% – from 1.7 million to 2.1 million rubles. Comfort-class housing, which accounts for 15% of the market, rose in price by 4% – the average price increased from 8.4 million to 8.7 million rubles.

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