CDS Daily brief (03.06.23) | CDS comments on key events

Snapshot of the day:

General, humanitarian:

• Over the past day, Russian armed forces shelled nine regions of Ukraine, killing and injuring Ukrainian civilians.
• More than 60,000 women are currently defending Ukraine, with over 42,000 of them being servicewomen of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.  
• Cases of people being kidnapped have been significantly increased in the temporarily occupied Melitopol.

Military: 

• The Russian “West” grouping of forces, comprised of approximately 50,000 servicemen, is comparatively the smallest group compared to the “South” and “East” groupings. Only a fraction of the “West” grouping are effectively supplied with armored vehicles, while the units formed during mobilization primarily consist of light infantry.
• The “West” grouping units, currently deployed in the Kupyansk direction, are concentrating their efforts on Hryanykivka – Dvorichna, Masyutivka – Holubivka, Lyman Pershyi – Synkivka, Yahidne – Kyslivka, and Yahidne – Ivanivka directions.
• After the Bakhmut battles, the enemy shifted their focus towards capturing Maryinka.
• The Russian Aerospace Forces employ unconventional tactics to carry out missile and aerial strikes to deceive the Ukrainian Air Defense Forces. The Ukrainian Armed Forces have anti-aircraft missile systems with the capability to intercept nearly all types of aeroballistic targets.
• The Russian military command’s intense focus on minor tactical battles reflects its nervousness and uncertainty regarding the upcoming counteroffensive by the Ukrainian Defense Forces.
• Possible operation situation developments: 
• The enemy’s “West” grouping will attempt to gain control over the R-07 highway between Kupyansk and Novoselivka. The immediate priority is to restore the defensive positions along the Oskil River between Kupyansk and Borova.
• The Russian military command will aim to enhance the resilience of their defense system on the Svatove-Starobilsk direction by utilizing a natural water obstacle and to eliminate the Defense Forces’ strategic foothold for an offensive towards Nyzhnia Duvanka and Svatove.
• It is unlikely that the enemy grouping will undertake a large-scale operation on the Kupyansk direction In the upcoming month due to the absence of strategic reserves.

International:

• Ukraine ruled out the Indonesian Defense Minister’s “peace” plan involving a ceasefire, the establishment of a demilitarized zone, deploying a U.N. peacekeeping force, and a U.N. “referendum.” Ukraine has no disputed territories with Russia, “Russia must withdraw from Ukrainian territories, and Ukraine must restore its territorial integrity within internationally recognized borders,” was Kyiv’s response.
• Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry made a demarche to Hungary for publishing a government-sponsored video in which Ukrainian Crimea was marked as Russian territory on a map. 
• The majority of Russians (76%) support the war against Ukraine and that it’s successful (61%), according to a Levada Centre poll.
• The Economist estimated Russia’s spending on the war at 3% of GDP, which is, by historical standards, a small amount. However, the Soviet Union collapsed with even more modest spending (0.4% of GDP) for its war on Afghanistan, among several other factors.

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Russian attacks

In the past 24 hours, the Russian army has shelled nine regions of Ukraine, according to the consolidated data from regional military administrations.

• The enemy launched six mortar and artillery attacks on the Novhorod-Siverskyi district in Chernihiv Oblast. A forest fire broke out as a result of the shelling.
• In Sumy Oblast, hostile shelling occurred during the night and morning hours. Two explosions and damage to a private house were reported. Yesterday, the Russians carried out 30 shelling attacks along the border of Sumy Oblast. One person was killed and one was injured. Private residences, power lines, vehicles, a pharmacy, and a multi-story residential building were damaged.
• Over the past day, the Russian army conducted 111 strikes on 24 towns and villages in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. During the day, two people were killed and five were injured. 58 cases of destruction of residential buildings and property were documented.
• Yesterday, the enemy shelled Nikopol in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast using artillery. There were no reported casualties.
• In Kharkiv Oblast, the enemy conducted mass shelling on at least 30 towns and villages. On Saturday morning, Russian forces shelled the Ivashki village with mortars, resulting in the death of a civilian. An apartment building, a private house, farm, and utility buildings were damaged. Yesterday, two private homes were damaged due to the shelling of Lyman village, and a fire broke out. The Russians launched a strike with guided aerial bombs on Kivsharivka, killing two people and injuring four, including a 3-year-old boy. Two elderly civilians were wounded due to tank shelling of Dvorichna. A man was killed by an unknown explosive device detonated in the forest. Also, a vehicle with a family inside exploded on an unidentified explosive device, resulting in the death of a woman and injuries to a man and three children.
• Two people were killed, and four were injured during the past day in Donetsk Oblast. 21 residential buildings (including 5 apartment complexes), two vehicles, a power transmission line, and two buildings of the Druzhkivka Porcelain Factory were damaged. 
• Yesterday evening, the Russian army carried out artillery strikes on Ochakiv  in Mykolaiv Oblast Residential buildings and power transmission lines were damaged.
• The enemy conducted 65 shelling attacks (fired 265 shells) on Kherson Oblast, including 5 shelling attacks on Kherson. The Russian military targeted areas of 28 towns and villages; 5 people, including two children, were injured. Farm buildings and agricultural machinery were damaged in Chereshenky village. Enemy aviation once again attacked Odradokamianka; the post office, club, clinic, administrative building, and monument were damaged. In Zahorianivka, two boys were injured due to the explosion of an unknown object. 

Inspections of the bomb shelters

The Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine reported that a check of over 4,800 shelters across the country revealed 252 closed and 893 unusable bomb shelters. 

The large-scale inspection began after the death of three people, including a nine-year-old girl, who couldn’t get into a closed bomb shelter in Kyiv and died as a result of falling debris from Russian rockets. 

The court in Kyiv ordered the pretrial detention of the security guard responsible for locking the shelter at the polyclinic during the shelling on June 1, which resulted in these deaths. As a part of the ongoing case, the court has also ordered the house arrest of the deputy director and director of the polyclinic, along with the deputy head of the administration of Desnianskyi District in Kyiv, where the polyclinic is located. They did not admit guilt.

Occupied territories

According to the Mayor of Melitopol, Ivan Fedorov, cases of people being kidnapped have seen a significant increase in the temporarily occupied city. “We see that every day up to 10 people are taken captive. It includes various categories, from pensioners and journalists to students,” he said. Additionally, there have been reports of people’s phones and tattoos being checked. In light of these circumstances, the mayor advised residents to clean their phones and consider leaving the area for their own safety. “I am grateful to our international partners who organize the evacuation of residents. They even cover the expenses. The journey takes 4-6 days.”

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Operational situation

General conclusion: 

• The enemy is concentrating its main efforts on defensive operations in all directions, attempting to complete the capture of Maryinka and locally improve its tactical position on the Kupyansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, and Maryinka directions.
• The Russian “West” grouping of forces is comparatively the smallest among the enemy’s established groups, comprising approximately 50,000 servicemen. In contrast, the “South” and “East” groupings consist of around 108,000 and 87,000 personnel, respectively.
• An analysis of the equipment provision for the “West” grouping reveals that only a fraction of the troops (regular formations) can be effectively supplied. The units formed during mobilization, including territorial defense units, primarily consist of light infantry equipped with the remnants of the main grouping’s armored vehicles.
• The units of the “West” grouping, currently deployed in the Kupyansk direction, are concentrating their efforts on Hryanykivka – Dvorichna, Masyutivka – Holubivka, Lyman Pershyi – Synkivka, Yahidne – Kyslivka, and Yahidne – Ivanivka directions. Increased activity has been observed near Kamianka, Kolomyichikha, and Raigorodka villages.
• The Russian Aerospace Forces are attempting to carry out missile and aerial strikes using unconventional tactics and unexpected timing in order to deceive the Ukrainian Air Defense Forces. However, the Ukrainian Armed Forces possess anti-aircraft missile systems capable of intercepting almost all types of aeroballistic targets.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense is hyper-focused on minor tactical battles, which underscores the Russian military command’s nervousness and uncertainty regarding the Defence Forces’ upcoming counteroffensive.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

• There were 29 combat clashes on various fronts.
• On June 1st, units of the Russian Volunteer Corps and Legion of Freedom, supporting Ukraine, carried out a raid in Shebekino, Belgorod Oblast. The Russian Ministry of Defense reported that units of the Western Military District of the Russian Armed Forces reinforced the border strip within an hour after the start of the raid and inflicted heavy airstrikes, artillery, and flamethrower attacks on the units of the Russian Volunteer Corps, Legion of Freedom, and their reserves. According to Russian estimates, the raid involved approximately 135 personnel and 35 units of equipment.
• On the Kupyansk direction, the enemy conducted unsuccessful offensive actions west of Masyutivka, near Kuzemivka in Kharkiv Oblast, and near Novoselivka in Luhansk Oblast. They intensified combat operations along the entire front line from Kharkiv to Luhansk. Fierce battles took place near Dvorichna, where Russian units crossed the Oskil River. Units of the 47th Tank Division of the Western Military District attacked the positions of the Defense Forces near Kyslivka. Additionally, the Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear Defense (CBRN) units of the 1st Tank Army of the Western Military District launched strikes on Defense Forces’ positions near Kupyansk using heavy flamethrower systems (TOS-1).
• On the Lyman direction, the enemy conducted unsuccessful offensive actions in the area of Makiyivka and Bilohorivka in Luhansk Oblast, as well as in Spirne in Donetsk Oblast. Units of the “Center” group of forces repelled an attack by the Defense Forces in the area of Serebryansk Forest.
• On the Bakhmut direction, the enemy conducted offensive actions towards Ivanivka but failed to achieve their objectives. The regular units of the Russian Armed Forces, who have replaced the Wagner PMC in Bakhmut, display reluctance to engage in the same protracted battles as their predecessors in the Wagner PMC.
• On the Maryinka direction, the enemy initiated offensive actions using the forces of the 20th and 150th Motorized Rifle Divisions of the 8th Army in the northwestern part of Maryinka. However, Ukrainian defenders successfully repelled all 14 enemy attacks. The enemy suffered significant losses in personnel and equipment. A counter-battle took place near Opytne. Units of the Russia’s 100th separate motorized rifle brigade, the “Sparta” battalion, and detachments of the “Kaskad” and “Rusich” groups of the 1st Army Corps are operating on the outskirts of the settlement.
• On the Shakhtarsk direction, the enemy carried out airstrikes in the Prechystivka area. Russian forces struck Ukrainian positions near Pavlivka and Vodyane.
• On the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson directions, the enemy continues defensive actions and has conducted airstrikes in the areas of Olhivske and Novodanylivka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, as well as Vesele, Kozatske, and Odradokamianka in Kherson Oblast. They have dropped 5 aerial bombs (KAB) on Kozatske and Beryslav in Kherson Oblast.
• The Defense Forces have launched Storm Shadow missiles at the port area in the occupied city of Berdyansk.
• Russian forces may be preparing a provocation at the Armyansk Chemical Plant in occupied Crimea, where unknown chemicals are being transported, posing the risk of causing an explosion that could release various toxic substances into the air.

Change in enemy disposition: 

• On the Kupyansk direction, there are units of the “West” grouping of forces with a total strength of 48,969 military personnel. The group is equipped with approximately 400 tanks, up to 350 armored combat vehicles, 540 artillery guns, mortars, multiple rocket launcher systems, and 8 Iskander missile systems. It is composed of 3 brigades, up to 10 regiments, 11 Territorial Forces regiments, and 8 battalion-level formations. The group’s reserve consists of up to 3 regiments.
• On May 30, special forces units of the “Akhmat” arrived in Maryinka.
• Units of the 3rd-year cadets from military educational institutions, numbering up to 200, are being deployed to the areas near the Ukrainian-Russian border. These units are equipped with light small arms and grenade launchers.
• The “Border Covering Grouping,” which is a part of the “West” grouping and deployed in the Bryansk, Kursk, and Belgorod regions of Russian Federation, comprises nearly 23,000 personnel. The group is equipped with up to 90 tanks, 340 armored combat vehicles, and over 440 artillery guns, mortars, and multiple rocket launcher systems.

Escalation indicators: 

• After the Bakhmut battles, the enemy shifted their focus towards capturing Maryinka.
• On the Kupyansk direction, there has been an increase in the number of troops compared to April, with the number of regiments rising from 6 to 10.

Possible operation situation developments: 

• The Russian forces will try to improve their tactical position on the eve of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, conducting local offensive actions in selected directions;
• The Ukrainian Defense Forces will continue to shape the operational space, preparing favorable conditions for a counteroffensive operation.
• The command of the enemy’s “West” grouping will attempt to gain control over the R-07 highway between Kupyansk and Novoselivka and intensify the pressure on the Defense Forces. Their objective is to disrupt the Defense Forces’ defenses along the Oskil River, stretching from north to south in the region between Dvorichna and Kupyansk. The immediate priority of the grouping is to restore the defensive positions along the Oskil River between Kupyansk and Borova.
• The Russian military command will aim to enhance the resilience of their defense system on the Svatove-Starobilsk direction by utilizing a natural water obstacle. Simultaneously, their objective is to eliminate the Defense Forces’ strategic foothold and operational bases for any offensive towards Nyzhnia Duvanka and Svatove.
• In the coming month, a large-scale operation by the enemy grouping on the Kupyansk direction should not be expected due to the lack of strategic reserves.

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area: 

As of June 3rd, there were 9 enemy ships in the sea. They patrolled areas near Crimea and along the coast of the Taman Peninsula. 2 of them are “Kalibr” missile carriers with a total salvo of up to 16 missiles.

In the waters of Sevastopol bay, there are over 40 combat ships/boats:

• 1 frigate (project 11356)
• 2 patrol ships (project 1135)
• 5 large landing ships (4 – project 775, 1 – project 1171)
• 2 submarines (1 – project 636, 1 – project 877V)
• 2 small missile hovercraft (project 1239)
• 7 small anti-submarine ships (project 1124)
• 6 missile boats (5 – project 12411, 1 – project 12417)
• 4 anti-sabotage boats (3 – project 21980, 1 – project IC16MII)
• 1 patrol boat (project 03160)
• 6 minesweepers (4 – project 266M, 1 – project 12660, 1 – project 12700)
• 3 medium reconnaissance ships (1 – project 18280, 1 – project 861M, 1 – project 864)
• 1 torpedo boat (project 1388)
• 3 landing craft (1 – project 21820, 2 – project 11770)
• 1 border patrol ship (project 22460).

• The enemy aviation continues flights over the sea from the Crimean airfields of Belbek, Saki, Dzhankoy, and Hvardiyske. To control the surface and air situation in the northwestern part of the Black Sea waters, six fighter aircraft were deployed from the Saki and Belbek airfields: two Su-27/30 (Belbek), two Su-30SM, and two MiG-29 UK (Saki).
• The air situation control and operational-tactical aviation management over the Azov Sea waters were carried out by A-50U Airborne Early Warning and Control (AEW&C) aircraft. The Belbek airfield (Crimea) hosts over 60 units of aviation equipment, including 58 aircraft ( 31 Su-27/30, 8 Su-35S, 5 Su-34, 1 Su-30SM, 9 MiG-29) and 4 helicopters. Additionally, air defence systems are deployed at the airfield, including 1 P-37 radar and two 96K6 “Pantsir” missile and gun systems.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 02.06.23 

Personnel – almost 209,470 people (+560);

Tanks – 3,829 (+10);

Armored combat vehicles – 7,502 (+12);

Artillery systems – 3,533 (+32);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 582 (+7);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 342 (+7);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 6,289 (+22);

Aircraft – 313 (0);

Helicopters – 298 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 3,165 (+28);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,132 (+15);

Boats/ships – 18 (0).

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Ukraine, general news

According to the Ministry of Defense, more than 60,000 women are currently serving in the defense of Ukraine, with over 42,000 of them being servicewomen in the Armed Forces of Ukraine. This number is steadily increasing as a significant number of Ukrainian women have joined the Armed Forces in response to the Russian invasion. The ministry also highlighted that changes in Ukrainian legislation have played a role in this trend, enabling women to fully contribute and excel in the military. 

Prior to the start of Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine, the number of women in the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine was approximately 30,000.

International 

The Indonesian Defence Minister has proposed a “peace” plan that involves a ceasefire, the establishment of a demilitarized zone, the deployment of a U.N. peacekeeping force, and a U.N. “referendum” to “ascertain objectively the wishes of the majority of the inhabitants of the various disputed areas.” Ukraine has no disputed territories with Russia, for there was an act of aggression and illegal occupation reflected in the U.N. documents, Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry’s spokesman said. “In the occupied territories, the Russian army commits war crimes, crimes against humanity, and genocide. Russia must withdraw from Ukrainian territories, and Ukraine must restore its territorial integrity within internationally recognized borders. There can be no alternative scenarios,” Oleg Nikolenko stated. 

Prabowo Subianto’s plan is based on the wrong assumption that there was or still is a willingness of Ukrainians on the illegally occupied territories to join Russia. Vladimir Putin, along with his followers and propagandists, admitted that the Russian military had been behind the illegal annexation of Crimea and the proxy war in Donbas from the beginning. The goal of the total war is to destroy Ukraine’s statehood and national identity, which can’t be solved by referenda and a ceasefire that would serve the Kremlin as an opportunity to regroup and reinvade.

Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry made a demarche to Hungary for publishing a government-sponsored video in which Ukrainian Crimea was marked as Russian territory on a map. “Hungary should stop making provocations and adhere to the international obligations undertaken within the framework of membership in the U.N., E.U., and NATO. Playing along with the aggressive policy of Russia does not contribute to the faster restoration of peace in Europe, which the Hungarian government publicly advocates,” the MFA’s statement reads. 

Earlier, Hungary’s Foreign Minister delivered a speech calling for peace talks and a ceasefire in Ukraine while standing in front of a map depicting Greater Hungary, which includes regions now under Ukraine’s sovereignty. The Hungarian leadership suffers from a “Trianon malaise” and can’t accept the fact that the Austro-Hungarian Empire is a thing of the past. The Trianon Treaty of 1920 put an end to the World War I part between the Allies and the Kingdom of Hungary. In the modern context, a Greater Hungary map is a political statement that rejects the U.N.-based international system, the Helsinki Final Act principles, and Hungary’s commitments to the E.U. and NATO. The dusty map is a justified claim of Viktor Orban’s regime of the territories of Austria, Czechia, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Ukraine. 

According to a recent survey conducted by the Levada Centre, most Russians (76%) either fully or partially express their support for the ongoing war against Ukraine. The data shows that this figure has remained relatively stable since April, with a slight decrease of 4% compared to March of the previous year – the beginning of the all-out invasion. 

Only eighteen percent of Russians do not support the war, with the highest level of non-support (21%) observed in September, following Ukraine’s successful liberation of the Kharkiv and Kherson regions. Almost half of Russians (48%) think the war should continue, while forty-five percent support peace talks. Twelve percent of respondents believe in the success of the Russian military actions, and almost half (49%) believe that they are “rather successful”. Only a fifth of responders think that the actions are rather unsuccessful, and eight percent are sure the actions are definitely unsuccessful. Forty-five percent think the war will go on longer than a year, a quarter of Russians believe it will end within a year, and eight percent are sure it will end within half of the year. Although the reliability of opinion polls in totalitarian societies may be questioned, the overall trend indicates that this war is supported by the majority of Russians, not solely by Putin himself.

The Economist estimated that Russia’s annual expenditure on the war amounts to approximately $67 billion (equivalent to 3% of GDP). While this figure may seem modest in historical context, it significantly surpasses the 0.4% of GDP that the Soviet Union spent on its military engagement in Afghanistan, which played a role in the downfall of the Empire of Evil. Among the relatively low spending, the magazine notes economic ones: “Russia would struggle to expand the war effort without costing its citizens dearly: printing money would spur inflation, eroding living standards; loading up banks with public debt might have a similar effect; tax rises or a big shift in public expenditure towards defense would also eat into personal incomes.”

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