CDS Daily brief (04.06.23) | CDS comments on key events

Snapshot of the day:

General, humanitarian:

• Over the past 24 hours, Russian occupying forces shelled 120 towns and villages in nine Ukrainian Oblasts, 92 infrastructure objects, killing 6 civilians and injuring 32.
• On June 4, the Russian forces attacked Ukraine with eight Iranian Shahed UAVs and six Kh-101/Kh-555 air-based cruise missiles; six missiles were shot down, two hit an airfield.
• Russian occupation authorities are withholding insulin from patients with diabetes who do not possess Russian passports (Zaporizhzhia Oblast).

Military: 

• Within the next month, one should not expect a large-scale Russian operation in the Kupyansk direction due to the lack of the enemy’s strategic reserves;
• On June 5, we should expect the Russian forces to resume offensive actions near Bakhmut.

Sea:

• There are 17 aircraft (in particular, 9 Su-25, 7 Su-24, 1 Il-22), 2 air defense systems 96K6 “Pantsir” on the territory of Hvardiyske airfield (Crimea).

International:

• President Zelensky made a rhetorical appeal to Volodymyr Putin, urging him to consider a diplomatic solution before resorting to the use of force.
• “We are ready,” Ukraine’s President hinted about the counteroffensive, while MOD’s video on social media urging the public not to disclose any information regarding Ukrainian Armed Forces activities, suggesting that a counteroffensive may be imminent.  “We believe that the Ukrainians will meet with success in this counteroffensive,” U.S. National Security Advisor said.
• “At stake in Ukraine are the fundamental principles of the U.N. Charter and international law, including territorial integrity and sovereignty – the right to exist as a country. For Russia, it is acceptable to conquer and colonize,” Estonia’s PM said. “You cannot blame Europe or European countries for Russia’s illegally invading Ukraine,” the Dutch Defense Minister struck back at a statement of a Chinese diplomat about the failure of the European security architecture.
• Russia’s complaints that sanctions have hindered exports of its agricultural products were completely false. In 2022, grain cargo turnover of Russian seaports increased by 6.4% year-on-year and mineral fertilizers by 25.1%. In four months of 2023, grain transshipment in Russian ports increased by 2.1 times, and of mineral fertilizers by 1.7 times.
• In April 2023, Russia experienced a significant decline in the number of children born, marking a record low in nearly a quarter of a century

Humanitarian aspect

According to official information from juvenile prosecutors, as of the morning of June 4, 2023, 485 children have lost their lives, and over 1,005 have sustained injuries of varying degrees of severity due to the Russian aggression. Today, a memorial event was held to honor the memory of these children, organized on the initiative of Olena Zelenska.

According to the Kyiv shelter audit commission, as of 8 am on June 4, a total of 1,078 bomb shelters have been inspected. Half of them are not operational, meaning they are either not ready for use or the commission encountered difficulties in opening them, as stated by Oleksandr Kamyshyn, Minister of Strategic Industries, who the President tasked to oversee the inspections.

Russian attacks

On June 4, the Russian forces attacked Ukraine with eight Iranian Shahed UAVs from the Bryansk Oblast and six Kh-101/Kh-555 air-based cruise missiles fired from six Tu-95ms strategic bombers from the Caspian region. The Ukrainian air defense destroyed four cruise missiles and six attack drones. Two cruise missiles hit an airfield near Kropyvnytskyi in central Ukraine.

The Russian army attacked nine regions of Ukraine over the past day, according to the consolidated information of the regional military administrations as of 9:00 a.m. on June 4.

• Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts in the north of Ukraine were subjected to shelling, with Chernihiv being targeted 5 times and Sumy 19 times. In Sumy Oblast, a total of 141 explosions were recorded. These attacks have resulted in injuries to civilians and damage to infrastructure in the affected areas.
• Russian troops fired 89 times at 22 towns and villages of Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Aviation, UAVs, MLRS and artillery were used. 16 civilian objects were destroyed.
• In Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, a two-year-old girl was killed and 22 people, including five children (three of whom are in serious condition), were injured in a rocket strike on Pidhorodnie on June 3. Four people were rescued from the rubble. Around 2 am, the enemy shelled Nikopol with artillery, damaging residential buildings. During the night, two enemy cruise missiles and one UAV were destroyed over the Dnipropetrovsk region.
• The Russian forces massively attacked at least 23 towns and villages of Kharkiv Oblast over the past 24 hours. As a result of the attack on Pershotravneve village, a private house was damaged, and a 74-year-old woman was injured.
• Serhiyivka and Bilohorivka in Luhansk Oblast were attacked by enemy aviation. During the day, the enemy carried out 110 shellings of the Oblast (fired 413 shells).
• Four people were killed and eight were injured in Donetsk Oblast. The Russian forces shelled 15 towns and villages. 36 objects were damaged, including 18 residential buildings, two cultural centers, a shopping center, a store, a secondary school, factory workshops, a hospital, a music school, and a professional lyceum.
• Russian forces fired artillery at the water area of the Ochakiv community, Mykolaiv Oblast. In the evening and morning, the enemy shelled Ochakiv.
• The Russian invaders shelled Kherson Oblast 56 times (fired 287 shells) during the day, including seven salvos (39 shells) on Kherson. The Russian military targeted the areas of 22 towns and villages. There are no victims or injured.

Occupied territories

In the occupied territories of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, the occupation authorities are withholding insulin from patients with diabetes who do not possess Russian passports, the National Resistance Center of the Ukrainian MOD reports. This measure is being employed in an attempt to coerce individuals into obtaining Russian passports.

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Operational situation

General conclusion: 

• The Russian military concentrates its main efforts on defensive operations in all directions, trying to complete the capture of Maryinka, and locally improve its tactical position in the Kupyansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, and Maryinka directions.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

• 23 combat clashes took place on different fronts.
• On the Kupyansk direction, the enemy conducted unsuccessful offensive operations near Novoselivka in Luhansk Oblast. The timely engagement of Defense Forces reserves repelled the enemy towards Kuzemivka. Russian forces attacked near Dvorichna, Masyutivka, and Synkivka but did not achieve any results.
• In the Lyman direction, the enemy conducted unsuccessful offensives in the area of Bilohorivka, Makiyivka, Luhansk Oblast, and Spirne, Donetsk Oblast. Fighting in the Makiivka area continues near the P-66 Kreminna – Svatove road; the enemy has made some progress in the forests west of Kreminna.
• In Svatove, Luhansk Oblast, about 40 servicemen of the Russian occupying forces deserted, leaving their combat positions without permission on June 2.
• In the Bakhmut direction, Russian forces carried out unsuccessful offensive actions in the directions of Ivanivske and Bila Hora. Russian and Ukrainian forces conduct positional combat operations on the northern and southern flanks of Bakhmut.
• Units of the 76th air assault division, 106th airborne division and two separate motorized rifle brigades of the Russian Armed Forces in this area have been exhausted by battles and have significantly lost combat capability.
• Ukrainian Defense Forces successfully hold back Russian offensive efforts near Krasnohorivka.
• In the Maryinka direction, Russian forces carried out offensive actions; Ukrainian defenders repelled all 11 Russian attacks in Maryinka and near Oleksandrivka. The Russian units suffered significant losses in manpower and equipment.
• In the Shakhtarsk direction, Russian units attacked the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces in the Pavlivka area.
• The Ukrainian Defense Forces try to seize the initiative in the Vuhledar direction conducting reconnaissance and assault operations near Pavlivka and Mykilske.
• On the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson directions, the enemy continues defensive operations, strengthening the system of defensive lines and positions in the rear areas of the Kherson Oblast. Recently, to the northeast of Stavky, on the northern side of the E97 highway, which connects the occupied Crimea with Skadovsk and Oleshki, the enemy completed the installation of the “Dragon’s Teeth” defensive line.

Change in enemy disposition: 

• The 40th Army Corps has been formed within the Southern Military District of the Russian Armed Forces, which includes the 144th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade. Based on the experience of forming the 3rd Army Corps in the Western Military District, the personnel strength of the new corps may reach up to 20,000 personnel.

Escalation indicators: not identified

Possible operation situation developments: 

• The Russian forces will try to improve their tactical position on the eve of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, conducting local offensive actions in selected directions;
• The Ukrainian Defense Forces will continue to shape the operational space, preparing favorable conditions for a counteroffensive operation.
• The command of the enemy’s “West” grouping will attempt to gain control over the R-07 highway between Kupyansk and Novoselivka and intensify the pressure on the Defense Forces. Their objective is to disrupt the Defense Forces’ defenses along the Oskil River, stretching from north to south in the region between Dvorichna and Kupyansk. The immediate priority of the grouping is to restore the defensive positions along the Oskil River between Kupyansk and Borova.
• The Russian military command will aim to enhance the resilience of their defense system on the Svatove-Starobilsk direction by utilizing a natural water obstacle. Simultaneously, their objective is to eliminate the Defense Forces’ strategic foothold and operational bases for any offensive towards Nyzhnia Duvanka and Svatove.
• In the coming month, a large-scale operation by the enemy grouping on the Kupyansk direction should not be expected due to the lack of strategic reserves.
• Russian troops will try to surround the Ukrainian Defense Forces in Maryinka;
• On June 5, we should expect the Russian forces to resume offensive actions near Bakhmut.

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area: 

• As of June 4, there were 12 Russian ships at sea. They patrol the areas near Crimea and along the coast of the Taman Peninsula. There are no Kalibr missile carriers at sea; they have returned to their base points.
• Russian aviation continues to fly from the Crimean airfields of Belbek, Saky, Dzhankoy and Hvardiyske over the sea. Five fighter aircraft from Belbek and Saki Air Force Bases were involved in monitoring the surface and air conditions in the northwestern part of the Black Sea, namely two Su-27/30 (BELBEK), one Su-30SM and two MiG-29 UK (SAKY). 
• Control of the airspace and management of operational-tactical aviation over the Azov Sea was carried out by the A-50U Airborne Early Warning and Control (AEW&C) aircraft.

• There are 17 aircraft (in particular, 9 Su-25, 7 Su-24, 1 Il-22), 2 air defense systems 96K6 “Pantsir” on the territory of Hvardiyske airfield (Crimea).
• On the night of June 4, there was an attack by aerial drones on military facilities in the area of Dzhankoy (Crimea). The occupation authorities reported that 9 UAVs had been used. The use of anti-aircraft and electronic warfare equipment is reported.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 04.06.23 

Personnel – almost 209,940 people (+470);

Tanks – 3,837 (+8);

Armored combat vehicles – 7,512 (+10);

Artillery systems – 3,555 (+22);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 583 (+1);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 344 (+2));

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 6,305 (+16);

Aircraft – 313 (0);

Helicopters – 298 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 3,175 (+10);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,132 (0);

Boats/ships – 18 (0).

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International

“If Russia wants diplomatic direction [solution], then it should leave without waiting for us to lose a lot of people and force them out,” Volodymyr Zelensky appealed to Volodymyr Putin while talking to Latin American media. “If you want to talk to me and talk to the civilized world, you must not wait to be knocked out by force, because by knocking out by force, by knocking out by the army, we lose people… If we knock them [the Russian invaders] out by force, when we push them out of our territory, what should we talk about with them? What is the point of talking?”

“I don’t know how long it will take. To be honest, it can go a variety of ways, completely different. But we are going to do it, and we are ready,” Ukraine’s President told the Wall Street Journal. “We strongly believe that we will succeed,” he added. Meanwhile, Ukraine MOD published a video on social media and on TV in occupied Crimea, calling on anyone not to reveal UAF activities and hinting that the counteroffensive is about to begin. “Exactly how much, in what places, that will be up to developments on the ground as the Ukrainians get this counteroffensive underway. But we believe that the Ukrainians will meet with success in this counteroffensive,” U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan told CNN.

“At stake in Ukraine are the fundamental principles of the U.N. Charter and international law, including territorial integrity and sovereignty – the right to exist as a country. For Russia, it is acceptable to conquer and colonize,” Estonia’s PM Kaja Kallas said at the Shangri-La Dialogue. Chinese diplomat Cui Tiankai blamed Russia’s war against Ukraine for the failure of the European security architecture. “There was a suggestion by the ambassador that Europe has not succeeded in managing its security very well because of the war in Ukraine. Of course, I understand there’s a war in Ukraine — but I think it’s not the result of mismanaging our security situation in Europe. It’s the result of not respecting the way we want to manage security in Europe,” the Dutch Defense Minister retorted the assumption. “You cannot blame Europe or European countries for Russia’s illegally invading Ukraine,” Kajsa Ollongren said.

Russia’s complaints that sanctions have hindered exports of its agricultural products were completely false, the Monitoring Group of the Black Sea Institute of Strategic Studies and BlackSeaNews reported. “Russian statistics for 2022 and January-April 2023 indicate the opposite. In 2022, grain cargo turnover of Russian seaports increased by 6.4% year-on-year and amounted to 45.1 million tons. In 2022, mineral fertilizers cargo turnover rose by 25.1% and reached 24.2 million tons. The indicators for the first four months of 2023 were even higher. In January-April 2023, grain transshipment in Russian ports increased by 2.1 times to 22.4 million tons, and the transshipment of mineral fertilizers increased by 1.7 times to 10.5 million tons.”

In April 2023, Russia experienced a significant decline in the number of children born, marking a record low in nearly a quarter of a century. Compared to April 2022, there was a decrease of 4.7% in births; compared to April 2021, the decline was 14.2%. Demographer Alexey Raksha predicts that the number of births in 2023 will decrease by 8-10%, equivalent to 1.2-1.25 million children. Raksha attributes this decline to several factors, including a 3% reduction in the number of women of childbearing age, mobilization efforts for the war, a mass exodus of Russians to other countries, and a decrease in household incomes.

The Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine stated that Russia’s losses in Bakhmut over a period of more than six months amounted to approximately 23,000 soldiers. In contrast, Ukraine reported losses that were 7.5 times lower than Russia’s figures. Ukraine’s General Staff estimated Russia’s overall losses to be 209,940 soldiers.

Additionally, according to data from the Federal State Statistics Service, 419,000 Russians left the country between January and September of the previous year, which is nearly twice as many as the same period in the previous year when the number was 202,000. Furthermore, the Federal Security Service reported that approximately 9.7 million people left Russia from July to September alone, as stated by the RBC news agency.

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