CDS Daily brief (05.06.23) | CDS comments on key events

Snapshot of the day:

General, humanitarian:

• During the enemy attacks on Kyiv in May, air defense forces destroyed 7 hypersonic missiles “Kinjal,” 13 ballistic missiles “Iskander,” 65 cruise missiles (X-101, X-555, “Kalibr”), and 169 UAVs.
• During the past day, the Russian army attacked nine Ukrainian Oblasts, injuring civilians and damaging civilian infrastructure.
• The inspection of one-third of bomb shelters in Kyiv revealed that out of 1,849 inspected shelters, only 1,011 are prepared to accommodate individuals, while 596 shelters are not ready, and 242 could not be opened.
• President Zelensky has approved the composition of a delegation to participate in the hearings of the International Court of Justice (ICJ) regarding Russia’s violations of international conventions on combating terrorism financing and eliminating all forms of racial discrimination.

Military: 

• The enemy is focusing its main efforts on defensive operations on all fronts, attempting to complete the capture of Maryinka and locally improve its tactical position on the Kupyansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, and Maryinka directions.
• The Russian forces of the 1st Tank Army are deployed in the Pershotravneve, Orlianka, Mykolaivka and Novoselivske; the Command Post of the 1st Tank Army is deployed in the area of Novopskov, and the Backup Command Post in Bilokurakino.
• The Russian military command is strengthening its troop grouping in the Kharkiv Oblast by deploying “Storm Z” assault units; reportedly employing a group of up to 500 former convicts in the region.
• In the coming month, it is unlikely that we should anticipate any enemy operations on the Kupyansk direction due to a shortage of their reserves.
• Russian forces will attempt to encircle the Defense Forces in Maryinka.

Sea:

• The group of captured Ukrainian Navy ships has been relocated from Striletska Bay in the port of Sevastopol to Grafka Bay, presumably for further disposal.
• The Bulgarian Ministry of Defense has announced the conduct of large-scale military exercises “Shabla 2023” in the Black Sea from June 5th to June 9th.

“The Grain Initiative.”

• Ukraine is preparing for a “Plan B” for exporting agricultural products through the Black Sea, in which Russia will not be a participant in the so-called “grain initiative.” 

International:

• U.S. military and congressmen believe Ukraine is prepared and ready for the counter-offensive. However, General Mark Milley warned that it’s “too early to tell what outcomes are going to happen.”
• Russia has already claimed Ukraine launched a ‘large-scale’ offensive. This claim is likely an intel-gathering effort and an attempt to gain an advantage in the cognitive domain.
• Samuel Charap of RAND persistently promotes his perspective on an “Unwinnable War,” based on the premise that neither side possesses the capability to secure a conclusive military triumph. However, his proposed solution, reminiscent of a flawed amalgamation of North Korea and East Germany, is riddled with numerous shortcomings and inadequacies.
• Ambassador Kurt Volker believes it’s “time to end Russia’s Black Sea piracy” by engaging Türkiye, demining SLOCs, establishing war-risk insurance for shipping companies, and conducting FONOPs, ensured by NATO’s warning to the Kremlin.
• “This is a war about freedom, and it’s one we have to win,” a GOP hopeful Nikki Haley explained that Ukraine’s victory is a way of preventing the world war.
• According to documents obtained by Sky News, there are alleged weapons supply contracts between Iran and Russia worth $1 million.

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Russian attacks

In May, Kyiv’s air defense forces destroyed 7 hypersonic missiles “Kinjal,” 13 ballistic missiles “Iskander,” 65 cruise missiles (X-101, X-555, “Kalibr”), and 169 UAVs, the Kyiv City Military Administration reported. The statement acknowledged that these numbers are approximate. “Never before has any city in any country experienced such powerful air attacks with numerous hypersonic aeroballistic, ballistic, cruise missiles, and modern military UAVs as much as Kyiv did in May. Kyiv endured. We endured.”

During the past day, the Russian army attacked nine Ukrainian Oblasts, according to the consolidated information from the regional military administrations.

• In Chernihiv Oblast, the enemy attacked the Novhorod-Siverskyi district. No casualties or damage were reported.
• Sumy Oblast experienced nine shelling attacks at night and morning, with 34 explosions recorded. Near Seredyna-Buda, the enemy conducted shelling using a “Shahed” unmanned aerial vehicle, damaging a utility structure. Yesterday, there were 22 shelling attacks on at least 9 communities of the Oblast, with 104 explosions recorded throughout the day. Two people were injured. There is recorded damage to private residences, power transmission and gas lines, a church, and a fire and rescue station. 
• Russian forces shelled at least 19 settlements of Zaporizhzhia Oblast.  No casualties have been reported, but 12 residential buildings and properties of local residents were damaged.
• In Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, the aggressors attacked Nikopol twice during the night. The city was shelled with heavy artillery. A church and a private enterprise were damaged. Nine residential buildings, a utility structure, and power lines were hit. There were no casualties. The enemy also attacked the region with a “Shahed” drone, but the Eastern Operational Command successfully shot it down.
• In Kharkiv Oblast, due to the shelling of Vovchansk, a private house was damaged; no casualties were reported. In Zolochiv, two people were injured, and the local sports school building was damaged. In Kupyansk Forestry, shelling resulted in a forest fire. The village of Pishchane was targeted, causing injuries to a woman and damage to a private residence. In Chuhuyiv, buildings and utility structures were damaged by three missiles, possibly from the S-300 system. The details of two additional missile impacts and their consequences are being clarified.
• During the past day, the enemy conducted 71 shellings (311 projectile) of Luhansk Oblast.
• In Donetsk Oblast, three civilians were injured in the past day. The Russians shelled 13 towns and villages. Eleven objects were damaged: six residential buildings, two utility structures, an administrative building, and a workshop of the Toretskcoal enterprise.
• In the evening, due to the enemy shelling of Mykolaiv Oblast, residential buildings and a utility structure were damaged in Ochakiv, with no casualties.
• In Kherson Oblast, two people were injured in the past day due to Russian aggression. The enemy carried out 28 shelling attacks, firing 176 projectiles, targeting 12 towns and villages. Around two dozen residential buildings, garages, vehicles, two educational institutions, and a hospital were damaged. In Vesele village, a building of an agricultural enterprise was destroyed by guided air bombs. The aggressors also attacked Beryslav, targeting the territory of a plant. At approximately 10:00, June 5, the Russian army once again shelled Kherson, with one of the enterprises being hit. A 55-year-old security guard was killed, as reported by the head of the Kherson Regional State Administration, Oleksandr Prokudin.

Evacuation

The Kharkiv Regional Military Administration is discussing the possibility of forced evacuation from border towns and villages in Kharkiv Oblast. The head of the Kharkiv Regional State Administration stated that this decision comes in response to the increased number of shelling attacks in the area. 

Bomb shelters

The Minister for Strategic Industries, Alexander Kamyshyn, has stated that the situation regarding bomb shelters in Kyiv is critical. As of June 5th, 1,849 shelters were inspected, representing approximately one-third of the total number of shelters in the city. Out of these, only 1,011 shelters, slightly over half, are prepared to accommodate individuals. 596 shelters are not ready, and an additional 242 shelters could not be opened. On June 2nd, President Volodymyr Zelensky assigned Alexander Kamyshyn the responsibility of inspecting the bomb shelters in Kyiv. This decision came after an attack on the city, which resulted in casualties, including due to the closure of a bomb shelter at a polyclinic in the Desnianskyi district.

International justice

President Volodymyr Zelensky has approved the composition of a delegation to participate in the hearings of the International Court of Justice (ICJ). On January 16, 2017, Ukraine filed a lawsuit against Russia at the ICJ for violating the Convention on the Financing of Terrorism and the Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Racial Discrimination. On November 8, 2019, the court recognized its jurisdiction in the case concerning Russia’s violations of the two conventions. The court also emphasized that Ukraine had complied with all pre-trial procedural requirements. This decision means that the ICJ can proceed to consider the merits of the case. As reported by Ukrinform, the ICJ will hold public hearings on Russia’s violations of the two conventions from June 6 to June 14, 2023.

Cultural Infrastructure

According to the press service of the Ministry of Culture and Information Policy, more than 1,520 cultural infrastructure objects in Ukraine have been destroyed or damaged as a result of Russia’s armed aggression. The report reveals that [culture] club establishments, libraries, museums, theaters, philharmonics, and art education institutions such as art schools and colleges in 216 territorial communities have experienced damage and destruction. The statistics indicate that the Russians have damaged 571 libraries, 82 museums and galleries, 25 theaters and philharmonics, and 115 art education institutions in Ukraine. Club establishments have suffered the most damage among the cultural infrastructure, with 727 structures being affected. 

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Operational situation

General conclusion: 

• The enemy is focusing its main efforts on defensive operations on all fronts, attempting to complete the capture of Maryinka and locally improve its tactical position on the Kupyansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, and Maryinka directions.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

• There have been 29 combat clashes on various fronts. 
• Units of the “Free Russia” Legion and the Russian Volunteer Corps are advancing towards Nova Tavilzhanka in the Belgorod region (Russia). 
• On the Kupyansk direction, the enemy conducted unsuccessful offensive actions near Novoselivka in Luhansk Oblast. In Zeleny area (northeast of Kharkiv), a Russian sabotage and reconnaissance group (DRG) unsuccessfully attempted to infiltrate the Defense Forces’ rear. 
• Russian forces are attempting to regain the initiative along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line.
• On the Lyman direction, the enemy conducted unsuccessful offensive actions in the area of Bilohorivka, Luhansk Oblast. The enemy is attempting to resume the offensive near Makiivka, Bilohorivka, and Spirne. Hostile attacks on Bilohorivka and Spirne were repelled. Battles are ongoing on certain sections of the R-66 highway near Kreminna.
• Defense Forces have advanced 400 meters on the Svatove direction and liberated a significant area of Ivanovski Forest. They repelled Russian attacks on Novoselivske.
• On the Bakhmut direction, the enemy conducted offensive actions towards Ivanivske but did not succeed. Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive actions near Ivanivske and Bila Hora. Defense Force units stormed enemy positions near Zaliznyanske.
• On the Avdiivka direction, Russian forces repelled attacks by the Defense Forces near Opytne and Vodyane.
• On the Mariupol direction, enemy units of the 5th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps, Chechen detachments “Akhmat,” supported by the artillery of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Army, unsuccessfully stormed Maryinka.
• On the Shakhtarsk direction, the Defense Forces launched a counterattack in Pavlivka and Mykilske areas.
• On the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson directions, the Defense Forces achieved limited tactical successes in the western part of Donetsk and the eastern part of Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. They advanced a distance of 500 meters to 3 kilometers northeast of Rivnopillia, launched offensives towards Pryiutne and Makariivka, and liberated Novodarivka and Neskuchne.

Change in enemy disposition: 

• The forces of the 1st Tank Army (Western Military District) are deployed in the following areas: the 4th Tank Division in Svatove, the 26th tank regiment of the 47th Tank Division in Kyslivka, the 2nd Motorized Rifle Division in the area of Pershotravneve, Orlianka, and Mykolaivka, the 27th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade in Novoselivske; the Command Post of the 1st Tank Army is deployed in the area of Novopskov, and the Backup Command Post in Bilokurakino.

Escalation indicators:

• The Russian military command is reinforcing its troop grouping in the Kharkiv Oblast with assault units called “Storm Z.” For this purpose, they have deployed a group of up to 500 former convicts to this area.

Possible operation situation developments: 

• The enemy will seek to improve its tactical position ahead of the Ukrainian counteroffensive by conducting local offensive actions on selected directions.
• The Defense Forces will continue to establish an operational space, creating favorable conditions for the conduct of the counteroffensive operation.
• In the coming month, it is unlikely that we should anticipate any enemy operations on the Kupyansk direction due to a shortage of their reserves.
• Russian forces will attempt to encircle the Defense Forces in Maryinka.

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area: 

• As of June 5, there were 6 enemy ships in the sea. They were patrolling the areas near the Crimean Bridge and along the coast of the Taman Peninsula. One corvette is equipped with “Kalibr” missiles and can carry up to 8 missiles on board. The “Kalibr” missile carrier frigate “Admiral Essen” has also been relocated from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk after completing repairs.
• The group of captured Ukrainian Navy ships (corvettes “Ternopil,” “Lutsk,” “Pridniprovya,” and two minesweepers) has been relocated from the Striletska Bay in the port of Sevastopol to the Grafka Bay, presumably for further disposal.
• The enemy’s aviation continues flights over the sea from the Crimean airfields of Belbek, Saki, Dzhankoy, and Hvardiyske. To monitor the surface and air situation in the northwestern part of the Black Sea waters, seven fighter aircraft were deployed from the airfields of Saki and Belbek: three Su-27/30 (Belbek), two Su-30SM, and two MiG-29 UK (Saki).
• Aircraft of the A-50U Airborne Early Warning and Control System were responsible for monitoring the air situation and managing operational-tactical aviation over the Azov Sea waters. On the territory of the Dzhankoy airfield (Crimea), there are three aircraft, including two Su-25s, and 41 helicopters, including eight Ka-52s, two Mi-24s, 14 Mi-28s, and 17 Mi-8s.
• The Bulgarian Ministry of Defense has announced the conduct of large-scale military exercises called “Shabla 2023” in the Black Sea from June 5th to June 9th. According to the Ministry of Defense, “intensive shooting will be conducted from various ground and air platforms against aerial and surface targets.” The exercises will involve the Land Forces, Air Forces, Naval Forces, and the Joint Special Operations Command. The main objective of the exercises is to improve the coordination among Bulgaria’s military formations. Bulgarian Air Force MiG-29 fighters will engage parachute targets with missiles. Combat shooting with various weapons, including the S-300 air defense missile systems, is also planned. Su-25 aircraft and Mi-24 helicopters will conduct live-fire exercises against surface targets.

“The Grain Initiative.”

Ukraine is preparing for a “Plan B” for exporting agricultural products through the Black Sea, in which Russia will not be a participant in the so-called “grain initiative.” The Minister of Agrarian Policy of Ukraine, Mykola Solskyi, noted that recently the grain corridor has practically not been functioning. The aggressor country has blocked grain exports from the “Pivdenny” port, and Russian inspectors only allow one vessel to be loaded per day. “We will be prepared for the ‘Plan B,’ which depends on us, depends on the UN. I don’t think we will stand aside if this continues in the near future… ‘Plan B’ excludes the fourth party (Russia) in these relations,” said the minister. He added that the Ukrainian government has already established a special fund of $547 million to insure dry cargo heading to the ports of Odesa for a possible new agreement. He also mentioned that shipowners could rely on the “sufficient strength” of the Ukrainian Naval Forces and air defense in the Black Sea region. Solskyi added that Ukraine, as before, hopes that the current Black Sea Grain Initiative will work despite the existing difficulties. The new working format will require time to conclude a new agreement and discuss new rules for exporting agricultural products.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 05.06.23 

Personnel – almost 210,350 people (+410);

Tanks – 3,848 (+11);

Armored combat vehicles – 7,523 (+11);

Artillery systems – 3,567 (+12);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 584 (+1);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 349 (+5);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 6,312 (+7);

Aircraft – 313 (0);

Helicopters – 298 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 3,189 (+14);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,136 (+4);

Boats/ships – 18 (0).

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International diplomatic aspect

“The upcoming offensive, they’re ready for; they’re trained for; they’re equipped for. And Russia is not,” House Intelligence Chair Mike Turner expressed his confidence in Ukraine’s preparedness for the counter-offensive. “They’re in a war that’s an existential threat for the very survival of Ukraine and has greater meaning for the rest of the world — for Europe, really for the United States, but also for the globe,” the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff told CNN. However, General Mark Milley warned that it’s “too early to tell what outcomes are going to happen.”

Russia has already claimed Ukraine launched a ‘large-scale’ offensive. It is believed that Russia is using this claim as part of their strategy to gain an advantage in the cognitive domain and to gather intelligence from social networks and public comments. Russia is employing tactics to undermine the confidence of Ukrainians and boost the morale of domestic audiences and invading forces. This includes spreading information about alleged attacks by the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) and portraying Russian forces as successfully suppressing these attacks. By doing so, Russia aims to create the perception that Ukraine, despite its Western training and equipment, is incapable of achieving its objectives. Ultimately, this strategy seeks to discourage the supply of Western weapons to Ukraine and promote diplomacy as the only viable solution to the conflict.

“An Unwinnable War: Washington Needs an Endgame in Ukraine,” an article by Samuel Charap in Foreign Affairs, aligns with the messaging that the Kremlin would welcome. It is worth noting that Samuel Charap had limited regard for the Ukrainian Armed Forces prior to the invasion, and he was not supportive, publicly at least, of arming Ukraine in the lead-up to the full-scale invasion. 

While acknowledging the potential for significant gains in the counter-offensive, Mr. Charap pushes the idea that the “fighting has made clear that neither side has the capacity—even with external help—to achieve a decisive military victory over the other.” In a vision for how the war ends, he believes in solving a dilemma of “steering the war toward a negotiated end in the coming months” or “doing so years from now,” dealing with a “devastating, years-long conflict that does not produce a definitive outcome.” 

According to him, the “magic bullet” is in starting a diplomatic track that may leave Russia in control of some territories but Ukraine able to “recover economically, and the death and destruction would end.” Samuel Charap brings the example of “the successful reunification of Germany in 1990,” which “demonstrated that focusing on nonmilitary elements of the contestation can produce results.” However, this armchair strategy overlooks the challenges of economic reconstruction, attracting foreign investments and ensuring security and opportunities for Ukrainians, especially those who are now refugees abroad. 

Furthermore, Charap fails to acknowledge the critical importance of Crimea, which is under Russian control and allows them to disrupt Ukraine’s sea lines of communication (SLOCs). The human dimension is also missing from Charap’s analysis, as Ukrainians in the occupied territories have been subjected to mass murder, torture, rape, deportations, and the forcible adoption of Ukrainian children by Russians who aim to erase their national identity, constituting genocide under international law. Charap’s reference to German unification is flawed since it was not solely a result of a diplomatic genius but rather due to the collapsing Soviet Union’s inability to control the German Democratic Republic (an analog to the so-called Donetsk People’s Republic).

In his article for CEPA titled “Time to End Russia’s Black Sea Piracy,” Ambassador Kurt Volker makes the case for involving Turkey in restoring its treaty-based responsibility of ensuring Freedom of Navigation (FON) through the straits. He proposes the creation of a demining coalition to address security challenges, guarantee unobstructed navigation, and establish war-risk insurance for shipping companies involved in direct trade with Ukraine. Ambassador Volker also proposes that NATO nations conduct non-threatening FON operations in international waters in the Black Sea and issue a warning that any attacks on commercial shipping in these waters will be considered an act of piracy and will not be tolerated.

In a CNN interview, Republican politician Nikki Haley expressed her perspective on the ongoing war, stating, “Everybody wants to know well how does this war end? It would end in a day if Russia pulls out. If Ukraine pulled out, then we’re all looking at a world war.” She argued that the outcome of the war would impact the behavior of tyrants elsewhere. “China says Taiwan’s next, we better believe them. Russia said Poland and the Baltics are next, if that happens, we are looking at a world war. This is about preventing war,” said a former U.S. Permanent Representative to the U.N. “This is a war about freedom, and it’s one we have to win,” she concluded.

“We should give the ATACMS [to Ukraine],” retired U.S. General David Petraeus argued. The German Defense Minister ruled out a Taurus cruise missile supply to Ukraine. However, Berlin may change its mind on F-16s. “Now we are in a phase of rethinking and checking what is possible and what we want and can do. And I think we will decide within the next two weeks,” Boris Pistorius told D.W.

According to documents obtained by Sky News, there are alleged weapons supply contracts between Iran and Russia worth $1 million. These contracts, dating back to September 2022, include the supply of barrels for T-72 main battle tanks, Howitzer artillery pieces, and ammunition shells worth $740,000. Iran denies supplying weapons to Russia, although more than 300 Iranian kamikaze drones were used to target Ukrainian cities only in May.

The U.K. Ministry of Defence believes that one of the objectives of these massive attacks was to deplete Ukraine’s stocks of valuable and advanced air defense missiles. However, “Russia is unlikely to have been notably successful: Ukraine has neutralised at least 90% of the incoming OWA-UAVs mostly using its older and cheaper air defence weapons and with electronic jamming.”

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