CDS Daily brief (07.06.23) | CDS comments on key events

Snapshot of the day:

General, humanitarian:

• 1,894 people have been evacuated after the Kakhovka Dam explosion; three individuals are considered missing; 30 towns and villages remain in the flooded area, with 20 of them located in the occupied territory.
• The Russian army shelled the nine regions of Ukraine over the past day, resulting in casualties and injuries. 

Military: 

• Russian forces are withdrawing from flooded positions in Kherson Oblast.
• The use of strike UAVs “Shakhed”/”Geran” fails to achieve the goal of wearing down the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ air defense.
• The sabotage of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Station dam by the aggressor forces indicates a lack of confidence in their ability to halt the counteroffensive of the Defense Forces.
• Sea: Russia plans to establish the Azov military-naval district in 2023, with bases in the temporarily occupied ports of Mariupol and Berdyansk in Ukraine.

International:

• Ukraine has launched an investigation “with the legal classification being ecocide and violation of the laws and customs of war,” and provided preliminary information to the International Criminal Court in The Hague. 
• Ukraine’s President is calling for an immediate and strong international response to what he describes as Russian terror. President Erdogan suggested the establishment of a commission and his services to investigate the accident.
• The U.S. has no intentions to talk to the Russians. Their message is clear: Russia “should leave Ukraine. You should free Paul Whelan, and you should free Evan Gershkovich. And you should immediately withdraw your forces in your illegal and unjust invasion of Ukraine.”
• China’s Foreign Ministry spokesman traditionally equated the aggressor and the victim of the aggressive war, calling on “all parties concerned in the conflicts to follow international humanitarian law and to do their utmost to protect the safety of civilians and civil facilities.”
• Ukraine’s government has allocated $40 million, and international partners some $170 million in assistance to address the consequences of the accident. An estimated $310 million is needed by Ukraine’s water utility services to repair the damage.
• Russia’s saber-rattling will not deter the U.K. from delivering Western weapons to Ukraine. Germany transferred another batch of military aid to Ukraine. The Swiss parliament’s upper house has voted an amendment allowing the re-export of Swiss weapons, including to Ukraine.

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Kakhovka HPP

The consequences of the Kakhovka Dam explosion as of 19:00, June 7: 

• 1,894 people have been evacuated;
• Three individuals in the flooded area in Kherson Oblast are considered missing.
• 30 towns and villages remain in the flooded area, with 20 of them located in the occupied territory.
• In Kherson, 9 location points have been set up where residents can receive water, food supplies, and psychological support.
• The occupiers have not carried out any systemic evacuation on the left bank.
• In the occupied Oleshky, water levels are rising, and only a few streets in the city remain unaffected by flooding, but the situation is rapidly changing. There are almost no evacuation routes, and the occupying authorities have neglected their responsibilities in this regard.
• Igor Syrota, the CEO of “Ukrhydroenergo,” believes that the water level will begin to decrease on the third or fourth day after the flooding, and by the tenth day, all the water will have drained into the Black Sea, and the Kakhovka Reservoir will be completely dry.

According to the Deputy Minister of Health and Chief Sanitary Doctor, Igor Kuzin, medical assistance in the flooded areas is being provided in full capacity. Drinking water reserves have been established in hospitals across Kherson and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. He added that there are 41 patients in the oncology center in Kherson, which is at risk of flooding. If necessary, these individuals will be evacuated to the municipal clinical hospital.

Water quality is monitored in the Kherson region, while radiation levels are monitored in the Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk regions. No deviations from safety standards have been recorded so far.

Additionally, Kuzin informed that bactericidal tablets and water disinfection supplies have been redistributed in Kherson and Mykolaiv Oblast. The supply of disinfection tablets should be sufficient to ensure the entire Kherson region is supplied for at least 1.5 months. This measure is taken to protect the population from outbreaks of waterborne infectious diseases associated with the use of contaminated drinking water. 

The flooding in the southern part of the country potentially carries risks of outbreaks of viral hepatitis, gastrointestinal infections, and botulism, Kuzin warned.

Russian attacks

The Russian army shelled the nine regions of Ukraine over the past day, resulting in casualties and injuries. 

• In Chernihiv Oblast, the enemy shelled Novhorod-Siverskyi and Koryukivskyi districts seven times with mortars and artillery. In the border village of Semenivska community, two houses and a shop were damaged. 
• The Russian forces shelled the border areas of Sumy Oblast four times during the night and morning, with 13 explosions recorded. In Yunakivska community, a drone attack of the Shahed type resulted in a fire and destruction of a private residential house. Two people died, and one was injured. Yesterday, the Russians conducted 19 shelling attacks on the Sumy region throughout the day. At least 9 private residential houses and the power transmission line were damaged.
• During the day, the Russian forces carried out 105 shelling attacks on 16 frontline towns and villages in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Eighteen buildings, apartments, outbuildings, and other civilian objects have been reported destroyed.
• In the morning, the Russian army launched two attacks on the Nikopol district in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. The extent of the damage is being clarified. Yesterday, the enemy shelled Nikopol, Chervonohryhorivka, and Marhanets communities with artillery fire. The gymnasium, seven private houses, an outbuilding, power transmission lines, and over 20 solar panels were damaged.
• In Kharkiv Oblast, the Russian army conducted airstrikes in the area of Ohirtseve. They also carried out mortar and artillery shelling of over 30 towns and villages. The Prydniprovsk branch of the main ammonia pipeline of the state enterprise “Ukrkhimtransammiak” was damaged. The damage is minor, and the ammonia pipeline remains intact. There is no ammonia leakage. 
• Within a day, the enemy shelled Luhansk Oblast 97 times, firing 425 shells.
• In Donetsk Oblast, the Russians conducted 20 shelling attacks during the day, killing 2 civilians. Nine residential buildings, two workshops of the Avdiivka coke-chemical plant, a kindergarten, the “Bogdan” enterprise building, and a vehicle depot were damaged. 
• On June 6, residential buildings and an elevator in Ochakiv, Mykolaiv Oblast, were damaged due to artillery shelling. 
• During the past day, the aggressors shelled Kherson Oblast 70 times (firing 353 projectiles), with Kherson itself being targeted 9 times. Within a day, one person was killed, and another was injured due to Russian aggression. 

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Operational situation

General conclusion: 

• The enemy is concentrating its main efforts on defensive operations on all fronts, attempting to complete the capture of Maryinka and locally improve its tactical position on the Lyman, Bakhmut, and Maryinka directions.
• Russian forces are withdrawing from flooded positions in Kherson Oblast.
• The use of strike UAVs “Shakhed”/”Geran” fails to achieve the goal of wearing down the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ air defense.
• The sabotage of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Station dam by the aggressor forces indicates a lack of confidence in their ability to halt the counteroffensive of the Defense Forces.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

• There have been 30 combat clashes in different directions. 
• On the Lyman direction, the enemy conducted unsuccessful offensive actions in the areas of Kreminna, Bilohorivka in Luhansk Oblast, and Berestove in Donetsk Oblast.
• On the Bakhmut direction, the Defense Forces continued to launch attacks to the north and southwest of Bakhmut, displacing Russian forces from positions west of Klishchiivka, entering Berkhivka, and engaging in street battles. Defense Forces units advanced from Orikhovo-Vasylivka and captured heights along the E-40 highway from Bakhmut to Sloviansk. Battles are ongoing near Ozaryanivka. The enemy also lost some positions near Rozdolivka. Intense battles are taking place on the southwestern outskirts of Bakhmut.
• The enemy deployed special forces units in order to halt the advancement of the Defense Forces near Klishchiivka.
• On the Avdiivka direction, Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive actions near Avdiivka, Pivnichne, and Nevelske.
• The Defense Forces continued to search for vulnerabilities in the enemy’s defense near Vodyane and made progress in the Nevelske area.
• On the Maryinka direction, Ukrainian defenders repelled all 13 enemy attacks in the vicinity of Maryinka. The Chechen forces, who took over from the assault units “Storm Z” in the Maryinka area about a week ago, have lost their offensive capability after several attacks on Ukrainian positions.
• On the Tavria direction, the Defense Forces were attacked in the area of Novodarivka, Rivnopillia, and Neskuchne, and are solidifying their positions in the Novodarivka area. 
• The enemy managed to capture Novodonetske, but the Defense Forces regained their positions on the northern outskirts of Novodonetske. Attacks by the Defense Forces on the northern outskirts of Urozhaine did not succeed. 
• Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked in the direction of Novosilka and continue to defend in the Novopavlivka and Orikhivka directions. 

Change in enemy disposition: not detected.

Escalation indicators: 

• Under the order of the Commander of the enemy grouping of forces “Dniepr,” General Makarevich, the 1st Battalion of the 205th Separate Motorized Brigade of the 49th Army of the Southern Military District, committed another war crime. With the aim of preventing the advancement of the Defense Forces, they detonated the internal structures of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Station. As a result of the act of terrorism, approximately 80 settlements are now in the flood zone.

Possible operation situation developments: 

• The enemy will attempt to improve its tactical position ahead of the Ukrainian counteroffensive by conducting localized offensive actions on selected fronts.
• The Defense Forces have intensified their activities in selected areas, simultaneously misleading the enemy regarding the true direction of the main strike and the overall plan of the counteroffensive.

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area: 

• As of June 7, there were 13 enemy ships in the sea. They were patrolling the areas near the Crimean Bridge and along the coast of the Taman Peninsula. There are no carriers of the “Kalibr” missiles at sea. 
• In the port of Feodosia, at the point of basing for the 58th group of auxiliary fleet support vessels of the Black Sea Fleet, the following ships are based:
  • 1 minesweeper (project 12700)
  • 1 torpedo boat (project 1388NZT)
  • 1 landing ship (project 1171)

• The enemy’s aviation continues flights over the sea from the Crimean airfields of Belbek, Saki, Dzhankoy, and Hvardiyske. Ten fighter aircraft from the Saki and Belbek airfields were involved in controlling the surface and air situation in the northwestern part of the Black Sea waters. These aircraft include two Su-27/30 (Belbek), four Su-30SM, two Su-24MR, and two MiG-29 UK (Saki).
• The control of the air situation and the management of operational-tactical aviation over the Azov Sea waters were carried out by the A-50U Airborne Early Warning and Control aircraft, Il-22 relay aircraft, and Il-22PP jamming aircraft.
• There are 37 helicopters based at the Dzhankoy airfield (Crimea), including 6 Ka-52, 2 Mi-24, 11 Mi-28, and 18 Mi-8 helicopters (1 of them without rotor blades). The airfield’s territory is protected by 1 Pantsir-S1 air defense missile system (SAM).
• Russia plans to establish the Azov military-naval district in 2023, with bases in the temporarily occupied ports of Mariupol and Berdyansk in Ukraine.
• The commander of the Black Sea Fleet, Sokolov, has been awarded the rank of “Admiral,” which coincided with the relocation of the most combat-ready warships to Novorossiysk.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 07.06.23 

Personnel – almost 212,030 people (+880);

Tanks – 3,873 (+13);

Armored combat vehicles – 7,560 (+17);

Artillery systems – 3,640 (+37);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 594 (+4);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 352 (+1);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 6,349 (+17);

Aircraft – 314 (+1);

Helicopters – 299 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 3,219 (+7);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,171 (0);

Boats/ships – 18 (0).

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International

“The incident at the Kakhovka Dam is being investigated by a joint team of investigators from the Security Service of Ukraine and the National Police, with the legal classification being ecocide and violation of the laws and customs of war,” according to a statement from Ukraine’s Prosecutor General’s Office. Ukraine has also provided preliminary information to the International Criminal Court in The Hague regarding the accident. The Institute for the Study of War suggests that the destruction of the dam was a deliberate act by the Russians. However, concrete evidence is currently limited due to restricted access to the warzone. Engineering and munitions experts believe that an internal explosion is the most likely cause of the dam’s destruction, according to NYT.

Ukraine’s President is calling for an immediate and strong international response to what he describes as Russian terror. He urges the Russians to leave Ukrainian territory and emphasizes the need for international institutions and leaders to intervene. The newly re-elected President of Türkiye suggested the establishment of a commission comprising experts from the warring parties, the U.N., and the international community, including Türkiye, to conduct a detailed investigation into the dam explosion.

“Our message to Foreign Minister Lavrov and to any Russian official has been pretty clear,” Vedant Patel replied to a question about plans to call the Russians about the accident, “we have been pretty clear in all of those readouts. They are: You should leave Ukraine. You should free Paul Whelan, and you should free Evan Gershkovich. And you should immediately withdraw your forces in your illegal and unjust invasion of Ukraine.” 

“We are seriously concerned about the Kakhovka dam destruction. We are deeply worried about the humanitarian, economic, and ecological impacts caused by it… We call on all parties concerned in the conflicts to follow international humanitarian law and to do their utmost to protect the safety of civilians and civil facilities,” China’s Foreign Ministry spokesman traditionally equated the aggressor and the victim of the aggressive war.

The Ukrainian government has allocated approximately $40 million for the construction of water pipelines in Kherson Oblast and other affected areas to restore the centralized water supply disrupted by the dam disaster. International partners of Ukraine have already provided $170 million in assistance to address the consequences of the accident. An estimated $310 million is needed by Ukraine’s water utility services to repair the damage.

The U.K. Foreign Secretary states that Russia’s saber-rattling will not deter the U.K. from delivering Western weapons to Ukraine. “We made a conscious decision that we cannot allow escalatory rhetoric or saber-rattling from Vladimir Putin or from the Kremlin to deter us from doing the right thing. As the Ukrainians move closer towards success and closer towards victory, there will be more regular and more shrill noises coming out of the Kremlin,” James Cleverly said. 

Germany transferred another batch of military aid to Ukraine, which includes eight Bandvagn 206 tracked all-terrain vehicles, thousands of ammunitions for Gepard self-propelled anti-aircraft guns, fourteen Vector reconnaissance drones, fourteen protected border guard vehicles, and three drone detection systems. 

The Swiss parliament’s upper house has voted in favor of an amendment allowing the re-export of Swiss weapons to countries involved in armed conflicts, including Ukraine, under certain conditions.

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