Russia’s war on Ukraine. Daily Snapshot. 08.06.2023

Snapshot of the day:

General, humanitarian:

• Kakhovka HPP:
• The destruction of the Kakhovka HPP has resulted in the submergence of 600 square kilometers of Kherson Oblast. The point of no return is reached, so the Kakhovka reservoir cannot provide water to suppliers, including the ZNPP. 
• Though the U.S. is still “assessing what happened,” its blamed Russia, which effectively controlled the dam.
• Ukraine and the U.N. agreed to deploy the organization’s personnel to the flood-affected Russia-occupied terrain.
• At least $1 billion and five years will be required to construct a new dam.
• Russian attacks: The Russian forces shelled nine regions of Ukraine over the past day, resulting in casualties and injuries. 
• Over 25,000 Ukrainian citizens are registered as missing under special circumstances in the Registry of Missing Persons. These include civilians, military personnel, and children. 

Military: 

• The reconnaissance and search operations conducted by the Ukrainian Defense Forces are conducted away from transportation routes and key populated areas, hindering the plans of the Russian defense forces.
• The enemy displays a panicky response to the reconnaissance and search operations of the Defense Forces and hastily deploying reserves and employing concealed firepower. As a result, the Ukraine’s Defense Forces have successfully identified and exposed approximately 30 enemy batteries in the past three days.
• The enemy’s main forces, previously positioned 40-60 km away from the front line on the Zaporizhzhia direction, comprising 8 to 10 brigades, have been deployed to the front line to reinforce the defensive positions. This move has led to the utilization of approximately one-third of the enemy’s grouping reserves.
• The enemy’s sabotage of the Kakhovka HPP dam has significantly complicated the crossing of the Dnipro River for the Ukraine’s Defense Forces, making it challenging and, in certain areas, even impossible.
• As a result of the destruction of the Kakhovka HPP dam, the enemy positions in Hola Prystan and Oleshky areas have sustained significant damage. 
• Possible operation situation developments: 
• The flood-induced changes in geophysical and topographic conditions in Kherson Oblast will have lasting consequences for both sides of the war, impacting their ability to conduct military operations effectively.
• If the Defense Forces manage to liberate Zhovtneve and succeed in Staromykhailivka, it will create favorable conditions for surrounding two enemy brigades in the Velyka Novosilka area. This could pave the way for further offensives towards Volnovakha or into the rear of the Russian defense near Hulyaipole.
• A successful strike by the Defense Forces on Horlivka and Yasynuvata could potentially result in the loss of the entire line of Russian defense on the Donetsk front, including Donetsk and Makiyivka.
• An enemy grouping with an estimated strength of up to 45,000 servicemen is being formed in the Valuyky – Urazove – Novy Oskol area of Russia’s Belgorod region. This group is equipped with weapons and military equipment, potentially indicating an objective to capture Kupyansk.

International:

• Romania reduced the number of the Russian Embassy’s employees (by 51) to the number it enjoys in Moscow.
• Russians hold the most negative view of the U.S. (77%), E.U. (72%), and Ukraine (74%), while the most favorable views are of China (87%) and Iran (69%). The Russians believe that their top allies are Belarus (77%), China (58%), India (31%), Kazakhstan (26%), and Armenia (16%).

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Kakhovka HPP:

The destruction of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant has resulted in the submergence of 600 square kilometers of Kherson Oblast. Of this area, 32% is located on the right bank and 68% on the left bank, as reported by Prokudin, the head of the Kherson Regional State Administration.

3,375 Ukrainian households are currently submerged, as stated by the Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine, Igor Klymenko. According to the updated data, 2,334 individuals have been evacuated. 

A significant number of mines are drifting downstream of the Dnipro River following the explosion at the Kakhovka HPP, according to information provided by the Operational Command “South”. The statement emphasizes that the flow has swept away the mine and explosive barriers set up by the [Russian] occupiers on the left bank, resulting in many mines drifting in the water. Among these mines, one anti-personnel mine was thrown onto the coast of Odesa Oblast. The Ukrainian defense forces have safely neutralized the threat. The mine danger along the banks of the Dnipro River, the Dnipro-Buzkyi Estuary, and the entire Black Sea coastline of Mykolaiv and Odesa Oblasts has significantly increased.

At least five people have died in Nova Kakhovka, a city illegally occupied by Russia, according to the occupation authorities. 

The occupiers shelled the flooded city of Kherson during the evacuation of the affected people. Nine people were injured. “Today, the Russians have committed another terrorist act! A massive artillery attack on the locations where our rescuers are working,” the head of Ukraine’s State Emergency Service said. Among the wounded are two employees of the State Emergency Service, a police officer, a doctor, and a volunteer from Germany. 

The water level in the Kakhovka reservoir on Thursday evening is 12.5 m – lower than the so-called “dead point” (12.7 m), below which water intake is impossible. Work is ongoing at Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) to ensure it has maximum amounts of cooling water in reserve in case it can no longer access the nearby Kakhovka reservoir, which is continuing to drop after its downstream dam was damaged earlier this week, Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi of the International Atomic Energy Agency said.

Though the U.S. is still “assessing what happened,” the White House Press Secretary stated, “Russia has no business to be there in the first place. And, you know, Russia — this was — this dam was under Russia’s control, and they bear responsibility for the destruction caused by this war.” 

Ukraine and the U.N. reached an agreement to deploy the organization’s personnel to the flood-affected left bank of the Dnipro River, illegally occupied by Russia.

While Vladimir Putin talked to the Gauleiter of the Russia-occupied Kherson region by phone, Ukraine’s President visited the Kherson and Mykolaiv regions to coordinate rescue and relief efforts. 

At least $1 billion and five years will be required to construct a new dam and hydroelectric station at the site of the destroyed Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant will, according to the head of Ukraine’s state-owned energy company Ukrhydroenergo. 

Russian attacks

On the evening of June 8, Russian forces have launched an attack on Uman in the Cherkasy Oblast of Ukraine. According to preliminary information, eight people have been injured, two of whom are in critical condition. The head of the regional administration, Ihor Taburets, reported that missiles hit an industrial facility and a car wash, resulting in a fire. Emergency services are currently at the scene.

The Russian forces shelled nine regions of Ukraine over the past day, resulting in casualties and injuries, according to the consolidated information from the regional military administrations on the morning of June 8.

• In Chernihiv Oblast, the enemy shelled Novhorod-Siversky district thrice with mortars in the past 24 hours. 
• In Sumy Oblast, Russian forces conducted seven shelling attacks along the border overnight and in the morning. The Myropillia community was attacked by the enemy’s Shahed UAVs, hitting a school (causing a fire), a grocery store, and a non-residential building. In the rural community of Mykolaivka, Shahed drones struck a hangar and a grain storage facility of an agricultural company. Yesterday, the Russians carried out 17 shelling attacks along the border. In the Seredyno-Budyne community, the building of the village council, the village church, and a former kindergarten were damaged due to mortar shelling. Warehouses, a truck, and four tons of wheat were damaged in the Khotynska community.
• The Russian army carried out 148 shelling attacks on 21 towns and villages along the front line in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. In Kamianske, a civilian suffered mine explosion injuries. 32 civilian objects in the oblast were destroyed.
• In Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, the Russian army once again shelled the Nikopol district. Yesterday, the Myrivska community was attacked multiple times by the enemy UAVs. Two private houses, an outbuilding, and vehicles were damaged. The aggressor targeted Nikopol with heavy artillery fire. The gymnasium, two private enterprises, eight residential buildings, six outbuildings, a gas pipeline, and a power line were damaged. During the night, Russian forces shelled the Myrivska and Marhanets communities with heavy artillery.
• The Russians shelled Vovchansk in Kharkiv Oblast, damaging private houses and estates. The oil extraction plant was also damaged, and a fire broke out in construction trailers. Yesterday afternoon, the enemy hit a multi-story residential building in Strilecha community with a tank. Russian military forces launched a missile strike from the S-300 air defense system on Malinovka village, damaging the boiler room and gas pipeline. In a field near Havrylivka village, a 39-year-old US citizen who was in Ukraine on a humanitarian mission was injured when he stepped on a “Butterfly” landmine.
• Within a past day, the enemy conducted 106 shelling attacks in Luhansk Oblast, firing 456 projectiles.
• The enemy carried out 14 shelling attacks on Donetsk Oblast in the past day. Three people were killed, and seven were injured within a day.
• The Ukraine’s air defense forces destroyed two enemy drones over Mykolaiv Oblast yesterday. Russian military forces conducted artillery shelling on Ochakiv. 
• Over the past day, the Russian invaders shelled Kherson Oblast 34 times (firing 192 projectiles), including one artillery shelling (2 projectiles) targeting Kherson. Despite constant Russian shelling, the evacuation from the flooded areas continues. The highest number of evacuees came from the Korabel neighborhood of Kherson. On the temporarily occupied left bank, the Russian invaders are not assisting people with the evacuation.

Occupied territories: 

According to a human rights movement “Crimean Idea” report on Facebook, Russian military forces in the temporarily occupied northern part of the Crimean Peninsula are obstructing farmers from cultivating fields. Additionally, residents of coastal areas have been warned that the resort season will not take place. The report also highlights that “Crimean Idea” experts have gathered evidence of property seizure from children’s camps. Human rights activists add that there is information suggesting the indefinite deployment of Russian military personnel in mini-hotels in regions where fortifications are being constructed along the seaside.

Humanitarian: 

According to Alexander Kononenko, a Commissioner for Human Rights representative, there are currently over 25,000 Ukrainian citizens registered as missing under special circumstances in the Registry of Missing Persons. These include civilians, military personnel, and children. Kononenko emphasized that the figures are not final due to ongoing occupation and that a complete assessment of losses can only be made after the full de-occupation of Ukrainian territory. “Only 140 civilians have been released,” he stated. 

Kononenko further highlighted the alarming situation regarding the return of civilians, describing it as a tragedy. He called on the world to react to Russians’ abduction and detention of Ukrainian civilian citizens, emphasizing that such actions violate the Fourth Geneva Convention, which prohibits taking civilian hostages. Kononenko stressed that civilians should be immediately released, and repatriation should occur unconditionally.

Regarding repatriation, Kononenko stated that military-to-military exchanges could be considered, but civilians should be returned to their homeland without any conditions. He also emphasized the importance of reuniting children with their families without any conditions, stating the foundation without any alternative options or agreements.

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Operational situation

General conclusion: 

• The enemy is concentrating its main efforts on conducting defensive operations on all fronts, attempting to complete the capture of Maryinka and locally improve its tactical position on the Lyman, Bakhmut, and Maryinka directions.
• The reconnaissance and search operations of the Ukrainian Defense Forces are being carried out away from transportation routes and key populated areas, which does not coincide with the Russian defense plans.
• The enemy nervously reacts to the reconnaissance and search operations of the Defense Forces, hastily deploying their reserves to battle and employing concealed firepower. As a result, in the past three days, the Defense Forces’ units have exposed approximately 30 enemy batteries.
• The enemy’s main forces, which were previously deployed 40-60 km distance from the front line on the Zaporizhzhia direction and consisting of 8 to 10 brigades, have been brought to the front line to strengthen the enemy’s defense. This move has led to utilizing approximately one-third of the enemy’s group’s reserves.
• The sabotage of the Kakhovka HPP dam has greatly complicated and, in certain areas, made it impossible for the Ukrainian Defense Forces to cross the Dnipro River.
• Due to the destruction of the Kakhovka HPP dam, the positions of the enemy in the Hola Prystan and Oleshky areas have sustained significant damage. Oleshky, Hola Prystan, Kozachi Lagery, and Dnipriany have been practically completely flooded. 

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

• There were 30 combat clashes on various fronts. 
• The territory [of the RF] captured by the Russian Volunteer Corps and Free Russia Legion extends up to 200 km along the front line and 5-10 km in depth. They have targeted the Urazove railway station, which is critical for the enemy’s logistical supply in the northern part of Luhansk Oblast. Intense fighting is ongoing in Nova Tavilzhanka. In order to strengthen their positions in the Valuyki-Urazove area, the enemy has relocated its most combat-ready units from the Lyman direction.
• On the Lyman direction, the enemy has launched unsuccessful attacks in the Kreminna and Novoselivka areas of Luhansk Oblast, and Berestove and Vesele in Donetsk Oblast. The enemy units of the 127th Separate Motorized Brigade of the 2nd Army Corps have made some advances near Bilohorivka.
• On the Bakhmut direction, the enemy conducted offensive operations in Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Ivanivske, and Pivnichne, but they did not succeed. The Defense Forces have advanced up to 1 kilometer on certain directions and counterattacked in Klishchiivka, Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Berkhivka, and Yakovlivka areas. They are currently engaged in battles for Paraskoviivka and Krasna Hora and making progress in the Soledar area. The Defense Forces have pushed back the enemy’s 72nd Separate Motorized Brigade from Andriivka towards Odradivka.
• The Russian military command is deploying reserves in the Bakhmut area to prepare for a defensive operation. Units of the Wagner PMC remain in the operational rear of the Russian grouping.
• On the Avdiivka direction, the enemy made an unsuccessful attempt to advance towards Avdiivka and Pervomaiske. The Defense Forces launched counterattacks toward Nevelske, Vodyane, and Opytne.
• On the Maryinka direction, Ukrainian forces repelled 13 Russian ground attacks in Maryinka.
• On the Shakhtarsk direction, the enemy units of the 37th Separate Motorized Brigade of the 36th Army and the “Kaskad” detachment of the so-called “DPR” repelled attacks by the Defense Forces southwest of Velyka Novosilka and currently control Novodonetske.
• The tactical group of the Defense Forces has advanced 1 km and gained control of the dominant height southwest of Velyka Novosilka.
• On the Tavria direction, the Defense Forces unsuccessfully attempted to advance south and southwest of Orikhove, and the fighting is ongoing.
• The command of the enemy “Dnieper” operational grouping is withdrawing its forces from the flood zone at a distance of 5 to 15 km, losing the ability to shell the territories controlled by Ukrainian forces. The flood has destroyed Russian minefields along the left bank. The occupying forces were unprepared for the consequences of their own breach of the HPP, leading to losses in units of the 7th Airborne Division and the 22nd Army Corps. As a result, there are reports of injured, killed, and missing personnel, and several field depots containing ammunition, food supplies, combat equipment, and other military property have been lost.

Change in enemy disposition: 

• The 114th, 143rd, and 394th Motorized Rifle regiments of the 127th Motorized Rifle Division, along with the 60th Separate Motorized Brigade of the 5th Army, are operating in the Vremivka – Velyka Novosilka directions.
• Russian forces have deployed a substantial part of their troops, previously engaged in training exercises in Belarus, to Ukraine and areas near the state border. Compared to March of 2023, the number of Russian personnel has significantly decreased from 9,000-10,000 to 1,000 servicemen.

Escalation indicators: not identified.

Possible operation situation developments: 

• The enemy will attempt to improve their tactical position in anticipation of the Ukrainian counteroffensive by conducting local offensive actions on selected fronts.
• The Defense Forces have increased their activity in selected areas, simultaneously misleading the enemy regarding the true direction of the main strike and the overall plan of the counteroffensive.
• The recent flood-induced changes in geophysical and topographic conditions in Kherson Oblast will have long-lasting consequences for both sides of the war in terms of conducting military operations.
• If the Defense Forces successfully liberate Zhovtneve and achieve progress in Staromykhailivka, Volnovakha district, it will create favorable conditions for encircling two enemy brigades in Velyka Novosilka. Subsequently, the offensive could be developed towards Volnovakha or into the rear of the Russian defense near Hulyaipole.
• A successful strike by the Defense Forces on Horlivka and Yasynuvata has the potential to result in the complete collapse of the Russian defense line on the Donetsk front, potentially leading to the loss of key cities like Donetsk and Makiivka.
• In the Valuyki – Urazove – Novy Oskol areas of Russia’s Belgorod region, the military command is assembling a group comprising up to 45,000 servicemen, which is being reinforced with weapons and military equipment. The potential objective of this grouping appears to be the capture of Kupyansk.

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area: 

• As of June 8, there were 12 enemy ships at sea. They patrolled areas near the Crimean Bridge and along the coast of the Taman Peninsula. One of them is the frigate “Admiral Essen,” capable of carrying up to 8 “Kalibr” missiles. The delivery of another batch of “Kalibr” missiles (up to 20 units) is expected in Sevastopol. 
• In the naval bases in the Black Sea, there are eight missile carriers for “Kalibr” missiles (up to 48 missiles):
  • SEVASTOPOL: one Project 636.3 submarine.
  • NOVOROSSIYSK naval base: frigate “Admiral Makarov,” corvettes “Vyshny Volochyok,” “Ingushetia,” “Grayvoron,” and three Project 636.3 submarines. 
• In the naval bases of the Caspian Sea, there are four carriers of the Kalibr missile system (up to 32 missiles):
  • CASPIAN SEA: frigate “Dagestan,” corvettes “Uglich,” “Veliky Ustyug,” and “Grad Sviyazhsk.”

• The enemy’s aviation continues flights from the Crimean airfields of Belbek, Saky, Dzhankoy, and Hvardiyske over the sea. For control of the surface and air situation in the northwestern part of the Black Sea waters, 15 fighter aircraft were involved from the Saky and Belbek airfields: seven Su-27/30 (Belbek), three Su-30SM, two Su-24MR, and three MiG-29 UB (Saky).
• The air situation control and operational-tactical aviation management over the Azov Sea waters were carried out by A-50U AWACS aircraft, Il-22 relay aircraft, and Il-22PP jamming aircraft.
• Enemy’s military transport aviation conducted three flights to transfer personnel and weapons to the Dzhankoy airfield.
• Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 07.06.23 

Personnel – almost 212,760 people (+730);

Tanks – 3,891 (+18);

Armored combat vehicles – 7,576 (+16);

Artillery systems – 3,668 (+28);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 595 (+1);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 355 (+3);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 6,384 (+35);

Aircraft – 314 (+1);

Helicopters – 299 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 3,234 (+15);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,171 (0);

Boats/ships – 18 (0).

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International

Romania demanded Russia reduce the number of its Embassy (diplomatic and technical personnel) by fifty-one, the number Romanian Embassy enjoys in Moscow. Such a move aligns with the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations of 1961. “An attempt to cover up such actions with false accusations against Russia because of its special military operation is hypocritical and reflects immoral Romanian support for the Nazi regime in Kyiv contributes to prolonging the conflict in Ukraine, increasing the number of victims and destruction,” Russia’s Foreign Ministry replied in Ribbentrop style.

According to a Levada Centre poll, Russians have held a highly negative attitude towards the U.S. (77%) for a quarter-century. The most negative attitude was registered in January 2015 (81%), which was related to the reaction of the West to Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea in the form of sanctions and political isolation. Twelve percent of Russians still have a positive view of the U.S. 

The E.U. follows with a record-high negative view of 72%, which is a record high (in January 2015, it was at 71%). Sixteen percent of Russians still hold a positive attitude towards the E.U. 

Ukraine also triggers negative emotions in 74% of Russians, the highest level in 25 years. The previous record was in March 2016 (65%). Sixteen percent of Russians still positively view Ukraine. 

China leads in positive views (87%), while only 6% of Russians have negative attitudes to their country’s senior partner. Iran is catching up with sixty-nine percent of Russians with a positive view and only nine percent with a negative one. The Russians believe that their top closest friends and allies are Belarus (77%), China (58%), India (31%), Kazakhstan (26%), and Armenia (16%). 

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