Russia’s war on Ukraine. Daily Snapshot. 10.06.2023

Snapshot of the day:

General, humanitarian:

• During the day, the flooding level in Kherson Oblast decreased by another 27 cm; the area of the flooded territories has halved;
• As of the morning of June 10, 62% of the Kakhovka Reservoir volume has flown out;
• Russian forces attacked 11 Oblasts of Ukraine over the past day;
• During the night attack, the Russian forces hit a gas production facility. The supply of gas from this facility to the gas transportation system was suspended;
• 84% of Ukrainians believe that no territorial concessions are acceptable even if it means prolonging the war and facing additional threats

Military: 

• The Russian military concentrates its main efforts on the defense of the Zaporizhzhia direction;
• The Russian military command failed to stabilize the front line in the Bakhmut direction;
• The successful advancement of the Ukrainian Defense Forces in the areas of Klishchiivka and Kurdyumivka threatens the further hold of Russian forces of their positions along the Siversky Donets-Donbas canal in the Ivanovski Forest – Andriivka sector.
• The Russian forces are unable to advance in the direction of Ivanivske – Chasiv Yar and in the area of Khromove;
• The Russian military lost the opportunity to develop its success in the directions of the Siversky ledge and the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration;
• The Russian military command has concentrated an assault grouping in the areas of Bohdanivske – Berestove – Vilshana – Tavilzhanka and west of Nizhnya Duvanka and is waiting for the right moment to conduct a counterattack in this direction;
• 4 naval drones attacked the Zatoka bridge area. One drone exploded in the area of the “Grain Initiative” convoy formation, 30 meters from the side of the SSI Challenger.

International:

• Justin Trudeau is in Kyiv to reassure of Canada’s further support of Ukraine, including NATO membership. The PM has announced another security assistance package worth CAD 500 million, which includes air-to-air missiles and artillery shells. Canada also will join the F-16 pilots training club.
• A bipartisan group of U.S. Congressmen called on the POTUS to provide Ukraine with a fourth-generation fighter aircraft, ATACMS, additional air defense capabilities and accelerate Abrams MBTs delivery. A Resolution calling on the Biden administration to immediately provide ATACMS to Ukraine has also been introduced.
• Congressman Ted W. Lieu led a bipartisan group of Members in reintroducing Russia as a State Sponsor of Terrorism Act.
• The U.K. will provide £16 million for humanitarian assistance to Ukraine.
• Olaf Scholz indicated his interest in calling Vladimir Putin but under certain conditions.

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Humanitarian aspect

According to Oleksandr Prokudin, the head of the Kherson Oblast Military Administration, the water levels in the flooded areas of Kherson Oblast receded by 31 centimeters between the evening of June 9 and the morning of June 10. However, the region expects rainfall, which may slow water outflow. As of the morning of June 10, approximately 62% of the Kakhovka Reservoir volume has already been discharged, as reported by Ruslan Strelets, the Minister of Environmental Protection and Natural Resources of Ukraine. On June 9, 248 individuals were safely evacuated to secure locations in Kherson Oblast. On the morning of June 10, the Russian occupation forces targeted the flooded Korabelny district of Kherson, injuring two volunteer rescuers who were subsequently hospitalized.

The Ministry of the Interior reported that as of noon on June 10, 27 people were missing in Kherson Oblast after Russian forces blew up the Kakhovka HPP. 32 towns and villages on the right bank are still submerged, with 3,784 residential buildings underwater. By Saturday evening, a total of 2,699 individuals, including 178 children and 67 individuals with reduced mobility, were successfully evacuated from at-risk areas. The situation remains critical on the temporarily occupied left bank, where 14 towns and villages are flooded. The occupation authorities do not carry out the evacuation, Prokudin said. They also do not open humanitarian corridors to help people who remain in danger due to flooding, Deputy Prime Minister – Minister for Reintegration of Temporarily Occupied Territories Iryna Vereshchuk informed.

In Kherson Oblast, the flooding has resulted in 10 villages being left without electricity, and approximately 162 transformer substations have been flooded. In the city of Kherson, over 15,000 consumers are currently experiencing power outages due to the flooding. In Mykolaiv Oblast, 13 towns and villages have been affected by the floods, and over 2,000 consumers are currently without electricity in that region as well.

Russian attacks

During a recent Russian attack, the air defense forces successfully intercepted and destroyed 8 “Shahed-131/136” UAVs and two missiles over Odesa Oblast. A fire broke out due to falling debris; 3 civilians were killed, 26 were injured; the blast wave damaged 290 apartments in 11 buildings. Overall, 20 Shakhed UAVs and 2 cruise missiles were destroyed by Ukrainian air defense overnight. A total of eight land-based missiles of various types and 35 attack UAVs were fired at critical infrastructure and military facilities in Kharkiv, Poltava and Odesa Oblasts. 

During the night attack, the Russian forces hit a gas production facility. The supply of gas from this facility to the gas transportation system was suspended, the press service of the Ministry of Energy reported.

Overall, the Russian army attacked 11 regions of Ukraine over the past day. There is destruction and killed and injured civilians. 

Occupied territories

After the floods that followed the blowing up of the Kakhovka HPP, the Russian occupation authorities allow only residents with Russian passports to evacuate from the left-bank (occupied) Kherson Oblast, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports. In addition, they forcefully evict civilians from their own surviving homes in order to house servicemen of the Russian occupation forces in them. 

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Operational situation

General conclusion: 

• The Russian military concentrates its main efforts on the defense of the Zaporizhzhia direction, and tries to improve its tactical position locally on the Lyman, Bakhmut, and Avdiivka directions; it tries to capture Maryinka;
• The Russian military command failed to stabilize the front line in the Bakhmut direction. They have at their disposal troops with low combat readiness and practically no reserves.
• The successful advancement of the Ukrainian Defense Forces in the areas of Klishchiivka and Kurdiumivka threatens the further hold of Russian forces in their positions along the Siverskyi Donets-Donbas canal in the Ivanivskyi Forest – Andriivka sector.
• The Russian forces are unable to advance in the direction of Ivanivske – Chasiv Yar and in the area of Khromove;
• The Russian military lost the opportunity to develop its success in the directions of the Siversky ledge and the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

• 34 combat clashes took place on different fronts.
• In the Lyman direction, Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive actions in Bilohorivka and Vesele areas; however, the 123rd separate motorized rifle brigade of the 2nd Army Corps made some progress near Bilohorivka. Russian troops repelled three attacks of the Ukrainian Defense Forces in the Lysychansk direction.
• In the Bakhmut direction, the Russian military carried out unsuccessful offensive actions in the direction of Bohdanivka, near Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Ivanivske, Bila Hora, Stupochky and southwest of Berkhivka.
• Defense Forces are active in the Bakhmut area, advanced west from Berkhivka and in the direction of Klishchiivka, stormed Russian positions near Dubovo-Vasylivka.
• In the Avdiivka direction, the Russian military made unsuccessful offensive attempts near Severne. Russian troops conducted unsuccessful offensive actions near Opytne and Nevelske. The Chechen “Akhmat” detachment is simultaneously participating in combat operations while looting the local population and producing staged combat videos in the southwestern part of Donetsk.
• In the Orikhiv direction, a grouping of the Ukrainian Defense Forces operates with the following composition: the 33rd, 47th, and 65th separate mechanized brigades, the 128th separate mountain assault brigade, the 46th separate airborne brigade, the 39th assault brigade of the National Guard of Ukraine, 39th anti-aircraft missile regiment. Their actions are supported by a separate artillery brigade and the M142 HIMARS/M270 MLRS grouping. The likely direction of the group’s actions is Tokmak.
• In the Zaporizhzhia direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces increased pressure on the positions of the 70th and 291st motorized rifle regiments of the 42nd motorized rifle division and the 22nd separate SOF brigade to the south and southeast of Orikhiv and advanced closer to Robotyne. The Ukrainian Air Force carried out 12 sorties and launched AGM-88 HARM and Storm Shadow missiles, targeting objectives in Berdyansk and the headquarters of the Russian military unit (specific number unknown) at Arabat Spit.
• Russian troops repelled two attacks to the south and southeast of Orikhiv, forcing the retreat of the Ukrainian Defense Forces from recently captured positions near Lobkove. However, Ukrainian forces partially control the village.

Change in enemy disposition: 

• The 24th separate SOF brigade of the RF Armed Forces operates in the Kreminna area. The 200th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 14th Army Corps of the Northern Fleet operates near Bakhmut.
• The 58th Army of the Southern Military District of the Russian Armed Forces conducts a defensive operation in the Vasylivka – Hulyaipole – Polohy line. The 42nd motorized rifle division (70th, 71st, 78th, 291st motorized rifle regiments), 4th military base (South Ossetia), 125th motorized rifle regiment of the 1st Army Corps, 1430th motorized rifle regiment of the mobilization reserve, 38th, 64th separate motorized rifle brigades, 69th separate cover brigade of the 35th Army of the Eastern Military District, 177th separated marines regiment of the Caspian Fleet are deployed in the first echelon.
• The second defensive line runs 5-15 km south of the first line, passing through Vasylivka – Solodka Balka – Verbove – Polohy villages. The 22nd separate SOF brigade and the 11th BARS detachment are deployed on this line.
• The third defensive line runs 15-20 km to the south of the second through the villages of Balka – Tokmak – Bilmak. The line is strongly fortified. The 19th motorized rifle division (429th, 503rd, 693rd motorized rifle regiments) and 121st separate motorized rifle brigade of the 1st Army Corps are deployed here.
• The grouping is supported by the 12th missile brigade, 291st artillery brigade, 67th anti-aircraft missile brigade, 100th separate reconnaissance brigade, and 40th RCB defense regiment (equipped with 3 TOS-1A “Solntsepek”). In support of the group’s objectives, the Russian Aerospace Forces are capable of conducting 80-120 aircraft sorties per day, 12 helicopter sorties, and employing 8-16 precision-guided munitions.

Escalation indicators: 

• The reconstruction of the storage facilities, where the placement of tactical nuclear weapons of the Russian Armed Forces is planned on the territory of the Republic of Belarus, will be completed on July 7-8.

Possible operation situation developments: 

• The Defense Forces have intensified their activities in selected areas of the front and will continue to develop a general offensive in the areas where they have achieved success.
• By conducting active operations in the Kupyansk direction, the enemy will attempt to draw away the operational and strategic reserves of the Defense Forces from the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia directions. By concentrating their own reserves specifically on these directions, they aim to repel any potential offensive.
• The Russian military command has concentrated an assault grouping in the areas of Bohdanivske – Berestov – Vilshana – Tavilzhanka and west of Nizhnya Duvanka and is waiting for the right moment to conduct a counterattack in this direction;
• In the event of the liberation of Zhovtneve by the Defense Forces and the development of their success in the Staromykhailivka area of Volnovakha district, conditions will be created for the encirclement of two enemy brigades in the vicinity of Velyka Novosilka. Subsequently, the offensive may be extended towards Volnovakha or the Russian defence’s rear near Huliaypole.
• A successful offensive by the Defense Forces on Horlivka and Yasynuvata could lead to the loss of the entire Russian defense line on the Donetsk axis, including Donetsk city and Makiivka.

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area: 

• As of June 10, there were 9 Russian ships at sea. They patrol the areas near Crimea and along the coast of the Taman Peninsula. 
• Locations of ships/submarines of the Russian Navy:
• Black Sea:
  • “Admiral Essen” frigate, pr. 636.3 submarine, “Alrosa” submarine, “Pytlivy” frigate, “Ivan Hurs” reconnaissance ship – SEVASTOPOL;
  • “Admiral Makarov” frigate, “Vyshnyi Volochyok”, “Grayvoron”, “Ingushetia” corvettes, three pr. 636.3 submarines, “Dmitry Rogachev”, “Vasily Bykov” and “Sergei Kotov” patrol ships – NOVOROSSISK;
  • “Askold”, “Zyklon” corvettes – KERCH;
  • “Pavel Derzhavin” patrol ship – southeast of Cape ZHELEZNY ROG (at the entrance to the Kerch Strait);
  • “Ladny” frigate – 20 km southwest of ADLER;
  • “Priazovye” reconnaissance ship – 150 km northeast of SINOP (Turkey);
• Sea of Azov:
  • “Eysk” corvette – 15 km northwest of the Kerch Strait.
• Location of large amphibious ships:
  • LLS “Olenegorsky miner” – southeast of Novorossiysk;
  • LLS “Korolyov” – 15 km west of SOCHI;
  • LLS “Orsk” – southeast of Feodosia;
  • LLS “Kaliningrad” – west of Cape Feodosia;
  • LLS “Minsk” – Sevastopol;
  • LLS “Yamal”, “Cesar Kunikov”, “Georgy Pobedonosets”, “Pyotr Morgunov” – NOVOROSSIYSK.
  • LLSs “Azov”, “Nikolay Filchenkov” and “Novocherkassk” are under repair in SEVASTOPOL.

• On the night of June 10, Odesa again came under a Russian drone attack. 4 naval drones attacked the Zatoka bridge area. One drone blew up under bridge support, and two were destroyed. The damage is minor. One drone exploded in the area of the “Grain Initiative” convoy formation (6 miles east of Odesa), 30 meters from the side of the SSI Challenger (Marshall Islands flag). In addition, a pair of Su-35SM aircraft launched a missile attack with 3 Kh-31A missiles, but the missiles did not hit the target: two fell into the sea, one fell into the coast. Two Mojaher-6 UAVs coordinated the strikes.
• As a result of the flooding caused by the detonation of the Kakhovka dam, a significant quantity of debris has been carried to the northern coast of the Black Sea, stretching from Ochakiv to Odesa. This debris primarily consists of remnants of buildings, vegetation, and household waste. Additionally, there is a concern that Russian anti-landing mines may drift and wash up on the coast, particularly in the Bugh-Dnieper estuary channel and the Black Sea. These mines pose a significant threat to navigation and the maritime industry, further complicating their operations in the affected areas.
• Russian aviation continues to fly from the Crimean airfields of Belbek, Saky, Dzhankoy and Hvardiyske over the sea. Ten fighter aircraft from Belbek and Saki Air Force Bases were involved in monitoring the surface and air conditions in the northwestern part of the Black Sea, namely three Su-27/30 (BELBEK), three Su-30SM two Su-24MR and two Mig-29 UK (SAKI). 
• At Belbek airfield in Crimea, 64 pieces of aviation equipment are currently stationed. This includes 60 aircraft, consisting of 8 Su-35S, 32 Su-27/30, 6 Su-34, 1 Su-30SM, and 9 MiG-29. Additionally, there are 4 helicopters, specifically 3 Ka-226 and 1 Ka-27.
• The control of the air situation and the management of operational-tactical aviation over the waters of the Sea of Azov was conducted by the A-50U Airborne Early Warning and Control (AEW&C) aircraft, IL-22 repeaters, and IL-22PP retransmitters.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 10.06.23 

Personnel – almost 214,660 people (+890);

Tanks – 3,909 (+8);

Armored combat vehicles – 7,607 (+7);

Artillery systems – 3,717 (+15);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 600 (+1);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 362 (+3);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 6,428 (+26);

Aircraft – 314 (0);

Helicopters – 299 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 3,263 (+16);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,176 (+5);

Boats/ships – 18 (0).

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Ukraine, general news

According to a recent KIIS poll, the overwhelming majority of Ukrainians (84%) firmly believe that no territorial concessions should be made, even if it means prolonging the war and facing additional threats. This viewpoint has been consistently dominant (82-87%) since the beginning of the full-scale invasion. Only a small minority (one-tenth) of Ukrainians are open to the idea of giving up some territories in order to achieve peace and preserve independence.

Months of the exhausting struggle of Ukrainians against Russia have not affected the mood of Ukrainians. “The fact that, despite all the losses and destruction, the Ukrainians remain adamant about concessions shows their high resilience and understanding of the impossibility of a true and just peace without the return of their territories. It is also fundamentally important that this stability and steadfastness is characteristic of all Ukrainians, regardless of their region of origin, language or nationality,” the KIIS explained.

International diplomatic aspect

“The people of Ukraine can count on Canada to continue its political, financial, humanitarian, and military support for as long as it takes – individually and through international cooperation within the G7, NATO, the United Nations, and any other forum where Canada can bring its weight to bear,” the Joint Declaration by Ukraine and Canada signed by Ukraine’s President and Canadian PM in Kyiv reads. 

Canada supports Ukraine initiative for a just and sustainable peace based on Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and commends the key principles of the Ukrainian Peace Formula. The two countries are determined to fight impunity and bring Russian war criminals to justice. “Canada supports Ukraine to become a NATO member as soon as conditions allow for it.” Canada has been a reliable partner ever since it recognized Ukraine’s independence (as the first Western country who did so). Justin Trudeau has announced another security assistance package worth CAD 500 million. It includes 287 AIM-7 [air-to-air] missiles and 10,000 155mm shells. Canada also will join the F-16 pilots training club. Since the all-out invasion, Canada has committed over $8 billion in wide-ranging assistance to Ukraine. Since the first Russian invasion in 2014, Canada has been carrying on Operation UNIFIER, a training and capacity-building mission in support of the UAF.

A group of nine U.S. Congressmen, representing both sides of the aisle, has jointly urged the President to support Ukraine by providing them with a fourth-generation fighter aircraft, ATACMS missiles, additional air defense capabilities, and expediting the delivery of Abrams Main Battle Tanks (MBTs). “By swiftly providing the Ukrainian forces with these additional capabilities, we can significantly improve their chances of victory, restore peace in Europe, and ensure a more stable and prosperous world,” the congressmen wrote. A bipartisan group has also introduced a Resolution calling on the Biden administration to provide ATACMS to Ukraine immediately. “The expeditious provision of this critical weapon system will provide the Ukrainian military with a critical deep-strike capability they currently lack, disrupt Russia’s warfighting ability, and could hasten Ukraine’s victory,” the draft reads.

Congressman Ted W. Lieu led a bipartisan group of Members in reintroducing Russia as a State Sponsor of Terrorism Act. “The United States has a range of tools available to hold the Russian Federation accountable, reduce its war machine, and isolate it economically and diplomatically, including by designating it as a state sponsor of terrorism and imposing corresponding sanctions,” the draft reads.

The U.K. will provide £16 million worth of assistance to enable aid partners (the Red Cross, U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, and International Organisation for Migration) to “help civilians, including 32,000 people directly affected by flooding, as well as at the frontlines and displaced communities.”

“Since we have not spoken for quite a while, I intend to speak with him again at some point in the near future,” Olaf Scholz indicated his interest in calling Vladimir Putin. “But it has to be clear in all these conversations that there is one condition for there to be fair peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, and this condition is that Russia withdraws its troops. And that needs to be understood,” the German Chancellor explained the preconditions. He also added that it is not reasonable to “force Ukraine to accept that the land grab by Putin is sanctioned and accepted.”

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