Russia’s war on Ukraine. Daily Snapshot. 11.06.2023

Snapshot of the day:

General, humanitarian:

• Ukraine secured the return of ninety-five POWs from the Russian captivity.
• Three Ukrainians were killed and twenty-three injured after Russia attacked a boat carrying evacuees from the annexed part of the Kherson Oblast. 
• In Kherson Oblast, 46 towns and villages are affected by flooding after Russia’s sabotage of Kakhovka HPP, 32 in Ukrainian-controlled territory and 14 in the temporarily occupied area; in Mykolaiv Oblast, 31 towns and villages are flooded; in Dnipropetrovsk oblast, water supply is unavailable for nearly 162,000 households.
• According to the United Nations, approximately 700,000 people in Ukraine have been deprived of access to drinking water due to the breach of the Kakhovka HPP dam. The residents of Kryvyi Rih are facing the need to reduce water consumption by 40%. The city has approximately one month without conservation measures and about one and a half months with conservation measures.

Military: 

• The enemy is concentrating on conducting a defensive operation on Vasylivka – Melitopol – Berdyansk – Velyka Novosilka line.
• The enemy’s 150th motorized rifle division continues its attempts to capture Maryinka.
• After setbacks on the Kupyansk and Avdiivka fronts, the enemy is now attempting to disrupt the command and logistics of the Defense Forces through airstrikes and artillery bombardment.
• The enemy’s 58th Army defense on the Orikhiv front relies on early detection and elimination of the Ukrainian Defense Forces assault groups, extensive use of anti-tank weapons, and mine-laying.
• The withdrawal of the enemy’s 60th Separate Motorized Brigade from their positions may indicate a breakthrough of the enemy’s primary defensive line.
• The Defense Forces actively engage the enemy in combat operations during the night, leveraging the technological advantage of Western weaponry.
• The Defense Forces employ precision-guided munitions to incapacitate the weaponry of the Russian grouping, which has the capability to carry out mass strikes, including TOS-1.
• The main striking forces of the Ukrainian Defense Forces have not yet been deployed in active operations.
• The Russian Aerospace Forces have launched a new air campaign aimed at disrupting the offensive capabilities of the Defense Forces.
• Upon its return to Sevastopol, the enemy’s reconnaissance ship “Ivan Khurs” has remained docked for over 2 weeks, undergoing repairs. However, its reconnaissance capabilities remain crucial during the ongoing period of heightened operations on the front. Another reconnaissance ship, “Priazovye,” has been conducting patrols along the Turkish coastline for over a week.

International, Russia:

• In a case with political implications, the ROC’s Court deemed pacifism a heresy incompatible with the Church. In contrast, Ukraine’s Orthodox Church conducted a liturgy at the Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra for the first time in over three centuries, offering prayers for the soul of Hetman Ivan Mazepa, who had been anathematized for political reasons.
• Peter Pomerantsev addressed Russia’s senseless violence for its sake, while Eugene Rumer argued that “Putin’s war has become the war of all Russians.” 
• Meduza published poll results, showing that even in its liberal audience, “there are people who continue to make excuses for the invasion, despite the fact that it’s caused untold pain for millions of Ukrainians and has been destructive to Russia itself.”

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POWs

Ukraine secured the return of ninety-five POWs from the Russian captivity. Among the released are defenders of Mariupol and Azovstal, the world-famous Bakhmut (where one Russian paid his life for 48 cm of Ukrainian land) and Serpent Island (which coined a phrase about the direction of the Russian warship), and Chornobyl NPP.

Aftermath of the Kakhovka HPP breach

The consequences of the Russian occupiers’ sabotage at the Kakhovka HPP, as of the morning of June 11, 2023

• In Kherson Oblast, 46 towns and villages are affected by flooding. Of these, 32 located in Ukrainian-controlled territory (3,821 houses), and 14 are in the temporarily occupied area.
• 2,718 individuals have been evacuated, including 190 children. 5 people have died. 35 individuals are considered missing, including 7 children.
• In Mykolaiv Oblast, 31 towns and villages are flooded. 982 individuals have been evacuated, including 167 children. 1 person has died.
• In Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, water supply is unavailable for nearly 162,000 households in 34 towns and villages. Drinking and technical water are being delivered.

Three Ukrainians were killed and twenty-three injured after Russia attacked a boat carrying evacuees from the annexed part of the Kherson Oblast to the Ukrainian-controlled side. “A 74-year-old man, when the enemy opened fire, shielded a woman with his own body. The Russians shot him in the back. He died from the injuries sustained, the doctors could not help him in time,” stated the [legitimate Ukrainian] Head of Kherson Regional State Administration, Oleksandr Prokudin. 

In total, 21 people were rescued. Almost all of them are elderly individuals, as reported by Ukraine’s Ministry of Internal Affairs.

Russia hasn’t granted access to the U.N. to the illegally occupied territories of the Kherson oblast. On Ukraine’s invitation, representatives of the International Criminal Court arrived in the Kherson Oblast to investigate the destruction of a Nova Kakhovka dam which caused an environmental catastrophe in Ukraine.

According to the United Nations, approximately 700,000 people in Ukraine, including residents of territories annexed by Russia, have been deprived of access to drinking water due to the breach of the Kakhovka HPP dam. 

The residents of Kryvyi Rih are facing the need to reduce water consumption by 40%, said Oleksandr Vilkul, the head of the military administration of Kryvyi Rih. Industrial enterprises have already taken steps to minimize their water usage. In the nearby villages water supply has been limited to four hours per day. However, the main water consumers are the city’s population, and it is crucial for everyone to contribute by reducing their water consumption by 40%.

According to Vilkul, the Ukrainian authorities have been preparing for such scenarios for the past year. Extensive work has been undertaken to ensure that water levels in the Pivdenny and Karachunski reservoirs are at their maximum, enabling the city’s water utility to operate almost normally while monitoring water quality. Immediate action plans, including technical and organizational measures, have been put into effect. The city has approximately one month without conservation measures and about one and a half months with conservation measures. Vilkul emphasized that the technical solutions required for water pumping have never been implemented in such a short time before. Therefore, significant projects need to be carried out during this period to secure a continuous water supply for the city. He warned that failure to conserve water could result in 70% of the city being without water within a month’s time. 

Russian attacks

During the night, air defense forces destroyed 6 Iranian combat drones that the enemy used to attack the front-line areas in the Kharkiv and Sumy oblasts.

Over the past day, Russian military forces attacked nine regions of Ukraine, according to the consolidated report of the regional military administrations.

• The enemy shelled Chernihiv Oblast with artillery.  
• Russian forces attacked border communities of Sumy Oblast 10 times overnight and in the morning, hitting civilian infrastructure. Yesterday, the enemy conducted 23 shelling attacks on Sumy Oblast, with 136 explosions recorded. 
• Zaporizhzhia Oblast was shelled 71 times during the past day. 18 towns and villages came under fire. 19 civilian objects were destroyed. Two residents of the front-line zone were killed, and one person was injured. 
• The enemy shelled the Nikopol district of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Three enemy drones were shot down over the region last night.
• The enemy attacked a gas facility with three UAVs and shelled a pumping station in Kharkiv Oblast last night. In Lymanske Pershe village, a main ammonia pipeline was damaged due to [Russian] artillery shelling. There is no reported ammonia leak.
• In Luhansk Oblast, the Russian army conducted 101 shelling attacks, firing 443 projectiles, in the past 24 hours. 
• In Donetsk Oblast, eight people were injured during the day. The Russians carried out 22 shelling attacks. 15 towns and villages were under fire, resulting in damage to 30 residential buildings, 5 utility structures, power transmission lines, four hospital buildings, a car, and a truck. 
• Yesterday, Ochakiv in Mykolaiv Oblast was subjected to enemy shelling. A fire broke out in an open area.
• The Russian aggressors carried out 41 shelling attacks on Kherson Oblast during the past day, targeting 20 towns and villages. The enemy conducted 7 artillery shelling attacks on Kherson city. Due to shelling in Kherson, two volunteers were injured. In total, 5 people were wounded in the Oblast during the past day.

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Operational situation

General conclusion: 

• The enemy is concentrating its main efforts on conducting a defensive operation in the area of Vasylivka – Melitopol – Berdyansk – Velyka Novosilka.
• The enemy’s 150th motorized rifle division of the 8th Army continues its attempts to capture Maryinka.
• After failures on the Kupyansk and Avdiivka directions, the enemy is attempting to disrupt the command and logistics of the Ukrainian Defense Forces through aviation and artillery strikes.
• The enemy’s defense on the Orikhiv front, carried out by the 58th Army of the Southern Military District, relies on early detection and elimination of the Defense Forces assault groups, extensive use of anti-tank weapons, and mine-laying near Russian positions. Lost positions are regained through counterattacks by the second echelon.
• The retreat of the enemy’s 60th Separate Motorized Brigade from their positions could signify a breakthrough of the enemy’s first line of defense.
• The Defense Forces engage the enemy in combat operations at night, leveraging the technological advantage of Western weaponry.
• The Defense Forces employ precision-guided munitions to incapacitate the weaponry of the Russian grouping, which possesses the capability to carry out mass strikes, including heavy flamethrower systems such as the TOS-1.
• The Defense Forces have not yet deployed their main striking forces into operations.
• The Russian Aerospace Forces have launched a new air campaign to disrupt the Defence Forces’ offensive capabilities.

Change in the line of contact (LoC) (past day):  

• There were 35 combat clashes on various fronts. 
• On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces made an insignificant advance to the northwest of Vilshany. 
• On the Lyman direction, the enemy conducted an unsuccessful offensive at the Bilohorivka and Vesele. The Defense Forces’ artillery conducted 15 strikes on Russian military positions near Lysychansk.
• On the Bakhmut direction, the enemy conducted offensive actions towards Bohdanivka and Bila Hora without success. The Defense Forces advanced 1.5 km near Berkhivka and Yahidne, in the Krasnopolska area.
• On the Avdiivka direction, Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive actions in the Severne area and unsuccessfully attempted to storm the Defense Forces’ positions near Opytne.
• On the Orikhiv direction, the Defense Forces expelled units of the 60th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (5th Army of the Eastern Military District) from their positions in the Storozheve area and the 394th Motorized Rifle Regiment (127th Motorized Rifle Division of the Eastern Military District) from their positions in the Staromayorsk area and north of Rivnopole. The Defense Forces made incremental advance south of Neskuchne, liberated Lobkove, and made progress to the west and south of Lobkove and to the west of Novopokrovka.
• The Defense Forces launched missile strikes on military targets of the Russian Armed Forces in Zaliznyi Port.
• Russian forces targeted an operational airfield in the Poltava region with ballistic missiles “Iskander”, cruise missiles and strike UAVs, attacking from the north and south directions. The airfield’s infrastructure suffered damage as a result.

Change in enemy disposition: 

• The 110th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps of the 8th Army operates in the Pervomaisk area.
• Units of the 37th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (36th Army), the 40th Separate Marine Brigade (Pacific Fleet), the 336th Separate Marine Brigade (Baltic Fleet), and the 5th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (1st Army Corps) operate on the Velykonovosilkivskyi direction.
• To the south of Orikhove, the enemy units on defense posture include the 70th and 291st motorized rifle regiments (42nd motorized rifle division of the 58th Army), the 22nd separate SOF brigade (Southern Military District), and the 45th separate SOF brigade of the Russian Airborne Forces.

Possible operation situation developments: 

• The Defense Forces have intensified their activities in selected areas of the front and will continue to develop a general offensive in the areas where they have achieved success.
• The enemy will continue missile and aerial strikes aimed at reducing the offensive capabilities of the Defense Forces both in the deep rear (airfields, troop concentration areas, logistics and transportation infrastructure) and in tactical and operational depth.
• In the event of the liberation of Zhovtneve by the Defense Forces and the further development of success in Staromlynivka, Volnovakha district, conditions will be created for the encirclement of two enemy brigades in the area of Velyka Novosilka. Subsequently, the offensive can be developed towards Volnovakha or into the rear of the Russian defense near Hulyaipole.
• A successful strike by the Defense Forces on Horlivka and Yasynuvata can lead to the loss of the entire line of Russian defense on the Donetsk front, including Donetsk city and Makiivka.

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area: 

• As of June 11, there were 12 enemy ships in the sea. They were patrolling the areas near Crimea and along the coast of the Taman Peninsula. One of them is capable of carrying up to 8 “Kalibr” missiles. 
• The reconnaissance ship “Ivan Khurs,” after returning to Sevastopol, has been moored at the dock for over 2 weeks, likely undergoing repair works, although its reconnaissance capabilities are highly relevant during the current period of intensified operations on the front. Another reconnaissance ship, “Priazovye,” which returned to Sevastopol on May 26, has been patrolling the shores of Turkey for over a week.
• Due to the flooding of the Dnieper River, enemy anti-landing mines (YARM) and anti-personnel mines (PMN-2) have been discharged onto the coast, reaching the Buh-Dniprovsky Lyman Canal and the Black Sea. On June 10, one YARM mine was detected and neutralized in Odessa. 
• The enemy’s aviation continues flights over the sea from the Crimean airfields of Belbek, Saky, Dzhankoy, and Hvardiyske. To monitor the surface and air situation in the northwestern part of the Black Sea waters, 11 fighter aircraft were deployed from the airfields of Saky and Belbek: four Su-27/30 (Belbek), three Su-30SM, two Su-24MR, and two MiG-29 UK (Saky).
• There is an increase in enemy aviation at the “Saky” airfield: 34 aircraft have been detected, including 2 MiG-29, 12 Su-30SM, 15 Su-24, and 1 Su-27/30. 
• The control of the air situation and the management of operational-tactical aviation over the Azov Sea is carried out by the A-50U AWACS aircraft, Il-22 relay aircraft, and Il-22PP electronic warfare aircraft.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 11.06.23 

Personnel – almost 216,540 people (+980);

Tanks – 3,926 (+17);

Armored combat vehicles – 7,631 (+24);

Artillery systems – 3,736 (+19);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 601 (+1);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 362 (0);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 6,461 (+33);

Aircraft – 314 (0);

Helicopters – 299 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 3,300 (+37);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,183 (+7);

Boats/ships – 18 (0).

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International and relevant Russia’s news 

In a politically motivated case, the Russian Orthodox Church’s Court declared pacifism a heresy, alien to the Church. The reason for such a verdict was an anti-war statement made by Priest Ioann Burdin, “we Christians do not dare to stand aside when a brother kills a brother; a Christian kills a Christian. We cannot bashfully close our eyes and call black on white, evil on good, say that Abel was probably wrong when he provoked his older brother.” 

“His pacifism is imaginary, one-sidedly oriented, his anti-Russian political position is clearly visible behind him, perceived in our country as unacceptable, and, it is important to emphasize, radically at odds with the position of the Russian Orthodox Church,” the verdict reads. 

Meanwhile, Ukraine’s Orthodox Church held a liturgy for the first time in more than three centuries, praying for the repose of Hetman (military ruler) Ivan Mazepa in the Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra. Hetman Ivan Mazepa was a close ally of Moscow’s Tsar Peter I but turned to Swedish King Charles XII when the Muscovite refused to honor an agreement and help to defend Ukraine. “Ukraine’s Hetman, calm and bold” inspired Lord Byron to write a poem in his name (Mazeppa). By order of Tsar Peter I, the Moscow Church imposed an anathema to the Hetman Ivan Mazepa. In September 2018, the Ecumenical Patriarch and the Synod of the Patriarchate of Constantinople stated that they never recognized the validity of the anathema of Ivan Mazepa because it was imposed purely for political reasons. 

Both cases prove that the Russian Orthodox Church has been a political tool of Russian rulers throughout the centuries.

“In Russia’s wars, the very senselessness seems to be the sense,” Peter Pomerantsev argued about the Russian death cult in the Guardian. “In a culture such as Russia’s, where avoiding facing up to the dark past with all its complex webs of guilt and responsibility is commonplace, such oblivion can be especially seductive.” 

“Putin’s war has become the war of all Russians. His legacy will remain part of their legacy, and it will continue to weigh heavily on their domestic affairs and the country’s relationship with the rest of the world,” wrote Eugene Rumer of the Carnegie Endowment for Foreign Affairs. 

Meduza, a Russian media, conducted a poll that showed that even in its liberal audience, “there are people who continue to make excuses for the invasion, despite the fact that it’s caused untold pain for millions of Ukrainians and has been destructive to Russia itself.” 

“A war ends when one side wins. Russia’s defeat will mean national humiliation, which we cannot allow. Therefore, we must win — we no longer have a choice,” a 35 y.o. wrote. “The war was a mistake, but losing it is unacceptable,” a 30 y.o. Russian living in Germany wrote. “I’m angry at both sides of the conflict. I’m angry at Russia because it started a stupid, bloodthirsty war leading to senseless killing daily. I’m angry at the countries that support Ukraine because they’re not insisting on an immediate cessation of hostilities, on end to the senseless killing,” a 38 y.o. wrote. “I don’t support the war. But unfortunately, the very existence of my Motherland (Russia) is at stake. I don’t want to see the collapse, the destruction of my country,” a 38 y.o. wrote. “The only thing worse than a war is a lost war. Starting it was an insane mistake, but now we have to win it; otherwise, we’ll be in the position of vae victis. I don’t support Putin — damn him,” a 35 y.o. wrote. ” [I support the war] because, in my view, the “peace plan” presented by Zelensky and supported by the “collective West” is highly likely to do so much damage to Russia that we can’t be sure it would survive,” a 36 y.o. wrote. “As a resident of Russia, I believe that while sending troops into Ukraine was a mistake, withdrawing them would be a crime. I have no intention of paying reparations for the mistakes of others for the next 20 years,” a 28 y.o. 

There’s a growing understanding among the expert society of what kind of profound and long-lasting problem Russia and Russians pose to Europe and the globe. Furthermore, there are indications of an evolving understanding of the attitudes towards Russia and Russians in Ukraine and other Central and Eastern European countries. However, it will take a considerable time for this sober understanding to become widely accepted as the mainstream view. The genocidal war waged by Russia against Ukraine has compelled a thorough reassessment of the approaches to Russian studies, highlighting the urgent need for a profound revision.

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