Russia’s war on Ukraine. Daily Snapshot. 12.06.2023

Snapshot of the day:

General, humanitarian:

• In Kherson Oblast, the number of casualties has risen to 10 due to the flooding caused by the Russian occupiers’ sabotage of the Kakhovka HPP dam. Additionally, there are 20 injured individuals and 41 people missing. In Mykolaiv Oblast, two fatalities have been reported.
• Russian forces continue to attack Ukrainian towns, injuring and killing civilians and damaging civilian infrastructure.
• Russian engineering units are reported to be mining the workshops of the “Crimean Titan” plant in the temporarily occupied city of Armyansk in the northern part of the Crimean Peninsula. The explosion could result in a technological catastrophe. 

Military: 

• In the Malynivka-Oktiaberske line (up to 30 km wide), the Defense Forces have successfully breached the logistics line and penetrated the first position of the 58th Army.
• The Defense Forces have a mobility advantage over the enemy.
• Tactical-level commanders of the Defense Forces have significant autonomy in making tactical decisions, providing them with an advantage in command and control over the enemy.
• The enemy redeployed the air defense to the Zaporizhzhia direction from other areas, providing opportunities for the aviation of the Defense Forces.
• The Russian command is relocating up to 12,000 servicemen of the 49th Army units, unspecified units of the Marine Corps and Airborne Troops from the Kherson direction to the Zaporizhzhia direction due to the contraction of the front line after the destruction of the Kakhovka HPP dam.
• Possible operation situation developments: 
• The Defense Forces will proceed with their offensive towards Melitopol, Tokmak; Polohy-Berdyansk; and Velyka Novosilka-Berdyansk.
• Sea: According to Russian sources, the reconnaissance ship “Priazovye” was reportedly attacked by six naval drones on the night of June 11. It is claimed that the ship’s artillery successfully destroyed all of the drones, however, it is highly unlikable.

International:

• The International Criminal Court had already launched an investigation of Russia’s destruction of the Nova Kakhovka Dam in Kherson Oblast, Ukraine’s President stated. 
• Raytheon Technologies will deliver five additional Patriot air defense systems to Ukraine by the end of 2024.
• Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev posted a tweet on Russia’s Day featuring a photo of Independence Square in Kyiv with the Russian tricolor flag, accompanied by the caption “soon to be a square of Russia.”
• The wife of a Russian opposition figure and journalist Kara-Murza, who received a 25-year prison sentence, believes that civil institutions and horizontal connections in Russia have been dismantled, resulting in a lack of awareness among people about their role as active participants in the state. The Russian opposition launched crowdfunding for political prisoners in Russia. 
• The Legion “Freedom of Russia” hacked local radios in Russia’s Krasnodar region, Tyumen, and Kursk, broadcasting messages of liberating Russia, holding war criminals accountable, and returning Crimea to Ukraine.
• New Zealand’s public radio station issued an apology for publishing manipulated articles on its website, which contained “pro-Kremlin garbage.”

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Humanitarian aspect

POWs

Since the start of the large-scale invasion, Ukraine has successfully repatriated 2,526 Ukrainians from captivity, according to President Volodymyr Zelensky, reacting to the recent POWs exchange and expressing gratitude to the team involved in the exchanges.

Aftermath of the Kakhovka HPP breach

The Russian sabotage of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant dam has resulted in the death of 12 individuals, according to updated information from Ukrainian authorities. In the Kherson Oblast, 10 people have died. Today, rescuers in Kherson discovered the bodies of a man and a woman. Two more people have died as a result of flooding in Mykolaiv Oblast. Furthermore, 20 people have been injured in the Kherson Oblast, and 35 individuals, including seven children, are currently reported as missing.

According to Andriy Demchenko, spokesperson for the State Border Guard Service, the Russian side has not taken proper evacuation measures following the explosion of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant. Instead, they are relying on information provided by the Ukrainian side and misrepresenting it as their own efforts. “The cynicism of the Russian side is outrageous because we see that they are not conducting the necessary evacuation of people. Instead, they are using footage, including from the [Ukraine’s] State Border Guard Service, and presenting it as their own,” said Demchenko.

Russian attacks

• During the past day, on June 11, Russian invaders shelled the Kherson Oblast 26 times, resulting in the deaths of three people and injuring 12.
• The Russian forces killed one Donetsk Oblast resident in Avdiivka and injured two more civilians on June 11. It is currently impossible to determine the exact number of casualties in Mariupol and Volnovakha.
• Two people were injured in Kharkiv Oblast due to enemy shelling on the morning of June 12.
• During the past day, the enemy carried out 74 shelling attacks on 17 towns and villages of Zaporizhzhia Oblast. It is reported that the 50-year-old woman was injured during an enemy attack on Novoselivka. On June 12, one person was killed and one injured when the Russian occupiers dropped three guided aerial bombs on the frontline town of Orikhiv. Private houses and communication infrastructure were destroyed.

Occupied territories:

Russian engineering units are reported to be mining the workshops of the “Crimean Titan” plant in the temporarily occupied city of Armyansk in the northern part of the Crimean Peninsula, according to the Main Intelligence Directorate (MID) of the Ministry of Defense. The MID indicates that the terrorist attack on the Kakhovka HPP and the subsequent water shortage in the North Crimean Canal have critically affected production processes at the “Crimean Titan” plant in Armyansk beyond restoration, and reports are circulating in the temporarily occupied territory of Armyansk about a potential shutdown of the plant.

Recent information suggests that Russian occupation army engineering have planted explosives on the premises. The Main Intelligence Directorate warns that a terrorist attack at the plant could lead to a severe technological catastrophe with devastating consequences. 

The “Crimean Titan” utilizes approximately 200 tons of ammonia in its refrigeration equipment. In the event of an explosion, depending on the wind direction, the ammonia cloud could spread to nearby areas within half an hour. The occupied city of Armyansk and the southern districts of Kherson Oblast would be particularly at risk. 

The report also highlights that the Russians are preparing to evacuate both occupation administration representatives and the local population in Armyansk.

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Operational situation (as of the morning of June 12)

General conclusion: 

• In Malynivka – Oktiaberske area (up to 30 km wide), the Defense Forces have successfully breached the logistic support zone and penetrated the first position of the 58th Army, resulting in the enemy’s retreat and disruption of their command and logistics systems.
• The Defense Forces have an advantage over the enemy in terms of mobility, and their Western-model equipment provides better protection for the crews against attacks.
• Tactical-level commanders of the Defense Forces have significant autonomy in making tactical decisions, providing them with an advantage in command and control over the enemy, who relies on a rigid vertically integrated C2 system.
• The enemy is concentrating their main efforts on conducting a defensive operation in the Vasylivka – Melitopol – Berdyansk – Velyka Novosilka sector.
• The enemy has strengthened the air defense of their formation on the Zaporizhzhia direction by shifting units from other areas, thereby providing opportunities for the aviation of the Defense Forces.
• The Russian military command is relocating some of the 49th Army units, as well as unspecified units of the Marine Corps and Airborne Troops, from the Kherson direction to the Zaporizhzhia direction (up to 12,000 servicemen) due to the contraction of the front line resulting from the destruction of the Kakhovka HPP dam.
• The enemy 150th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Army continues its attempts to capture Maryinka.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

• There have been 25 combat clashes on various fronts. 
• On the Lyman direction, the enemy conducted unsuccessful offensive actions in the area of Bilohorivka and Vesele. 
• On the Bakhmut direction, the enemy attempted to improve its tactical position and attacked in the directions of Ivanivske, Bila Hora, and Bohdanivka, but without success. 
• The 3rd Separate Assault Brigade of the Ukrainian Defense Forces advanced 1.5 km north of Bakhmut. The Defense Forces attacked near Klishchiivka, and Russian special forces units are attempting to repel these attacks. 
• On the Avdiivka direction, the enemy attempted to advance towards Avdiivka but was unsuccessful. The units of the 132nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (the 1st Army Corps of the 8th Army) repelled eight attacks of the Ukrainian Defense Forces near Novobakhmutivka; the 277th rifle battalion of the 1st Army Corps – near Krasnohorivka, and the 1st Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps – near Pervomaiske. The Defense Forces successfully repelled the counterattack by the “Storm” units near Severne, made slight advances to the south of Nevelske, and attacked near Severne and Opytne.
• On the Zaporizhzhia direction, the Defense Forces liberated Neskuchne and Makarivka, advanced to the northern outskirts of Urozhaine, and in the area of Novodarivka; they are consolidating their positions in Levadne. Ukraine’s units of the 68th Separate Jaeger Brigade liberated Blahodatne; the battles are ongoing in Lobkove and Pyatykhatky.
• The operational and tactical grouping “Kaskad” of the self-proclaimed DPR withdrew from the area to avoid being encircled. Units of the enemy’s 60th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade withdrew from Storozheve. Units of the 336th separate marines brigade of the Russian Baltic Fleet conducted a strike near Klyuchove. Units of the 111th mechanized rifle regiment of the 1st Army Corps detonated a dam on the Mokri Yaly River in the Heorhiivka area, attempting to halt the advance of the Defense Forces towards Staromlynivka.
• Partisans have sabotaged railway bridges in the Kirovsky district of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and in Yakymivka of the Melitopol district. 
• In the village of Shchaslytseve, Henichesk district of Kherson Oblast, the “Bryhantyna” hotel, which served as the headquarters of the enemy grouping “Dnieper,” was targeted by a precise strike from a Storm Shadow missile. The fate of Commander General Makarevich, who issued the order to detonate the Kakhovka HPP, is currently unknown.

Change in enemy disposition: 

• The 10th tank regiment of the 3rd Army Corps of the Western Military District continues to operate near Avdiivka. 
• Units of the 429th Mechanized rifle regiment (the 19th Motorized Rifle Division of the 58th Army) are active near Lobkove, where “volunteer” units “Storm-Ossetia” and “Alania” have also been observed.
• Units of the 71st Mechanized rifle regiment (the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 58th Army) are operating near Robotyne. 
• On the Orikhiv direction, the 3rd detachment of the BARS from the “Volunteer Strike Brigade “Tsars’ Wolves” is active.

Indicators of escalation

• Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, Army General V. Gerasimov, has ordered the formation of assault units comprised of personnel exhibiting low morale, desertion tendencies, or engaging in activities detrimental to Russian fortifications.
• Transferred to the Belarusian Armed Forces, the S-400 air defense systems are being deployed near the Luninets airfield. The complexes are equipped with 48H6 “surface-to-air” missiles with a firing range of up to 150 km.

Possible operation situation developments: 

• The Defense Forces will proceed with their offensive towards Melitopol and, utilizing a portion of their forces, advance towards Tokmak; towards Polohy-Berdyansk; and towards Velyka Novosilka-Berdyansk.
• In the event of the Defense Forces’ liberation of Zhovtneve and their further development of success in Staromlynivka, Volnovakha district, conditions will be created for the encirclement of two enemy brigades in the area of Velyka Novosilka. Subsequently, the offensive can be developed towards Volnovakha or into the rear of the Russian defense near Hulyaipole.
• A successful strike by the Defense Forces on Horlivka and Yasynuvata could lead to the loss of the entire Russian defense line on the Donetsk front, including Donetsk itself and Makiyivka.
• The successful breach of the first position of the 58th Army forces compels the Russian command on the theater of operations to initiate a counterattack on a different front in order to impede the progress of the Defense Forces on the Zaporizhzhia front.
• The enemy will continue missile and aerial strikes aimed at reducing the offensive capabilities of the Defense Forces both in the deep rear (airfields, troop concentration areas, logistics and transportation infrastructure) and in tactical and operational depth. An increase in the number of sorties by the strike aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces can be expected on the Zaporizhzhia direction.

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area: 

• As of June 12, there were three enemy ships in the sea. They were patrolling the areas near the Crimean Bridge and the coast of the Taman Peninsula. None of them are equipped with “Kalibr” missiles.
• According to Russian sources, the reconnaissance ship “Priazovye” was reportedly attacked by six naval drones on the night of June 11. It is claimed that the ship’s artillery successfully destroyed all of the drones, although this outcome seems highly improbable. This ship has two AK-306 artillery mounts that can only fire from the sighting column, which does not allow for detecting such targets and in such numbers at a sufficient distance, especially during the dark hours when the attack occurred. The reconnaissance ship “Priazovye” had been on reconnaissance patrol off the coast of Turkey for over a week, monitoring the actions of NATO countries’ aviation in the Black Sea.
• Due to the flooding of the Dnieper River, there has been a discharge of enemy anti-landing mines (YAR-M) and anti-personnel mines (PMN-2) onto the coast near the Buzko-Dniprovske Estuary Canal and into the Black Sea. On June 11, two mines were discovered on the coast of Odesa. On June 12, a flood wave carrying debris reached the coast of Bulgaria, posing a possible mine threat in that area.
• The enemy aviation continues to conduct flights over the sea from the Crimean airfields of Belbek, Saky, Dzhankoy, and Hvardiyske. Eight fighter aircraft from the Belbek and Saky airfields were involved in monitoring the surface and air situation in the northwestern part of the Black Sea: four Su-27/30 (Belbek), two Su-24MR, and two MiG-29 UK (Saky).
• The control of the air situation and the management of operational-tactical aviation over the Azov Sea were carried out by the A-50U AWACS aircraft, Il-22 relay aircraft, and Il-22PP jamming aircraft.
• Russia has relocated the coastal missile systems “Bal” to the Bryansk region for potential missile strikes. The system is capable of striking fixed targets on land.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 12.06.23 

Personnel – almost 216,180 people (+540); (correction for yesterday’s brief “215,540, not 216,540 on June 11, 2023”)

Tanks – 3,931 (+5);

Armored combat vehicles – 7,636 (+5);

Artillery systems – 3,746 (+10);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 601 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 362 (0);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 6,471 (+10);

Aircraft – 314 (0);

Helicopters – 299 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 3,307 (+7);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,183 (0);

Boats/ships – 18 (0).

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Ukraine, general news

According to a survey conducted by Rakuten Viber, 40% of Ukrainians have seen a decline in their income since the beginning of the war. Among the respondents, 31% reported a significant wage decrease, while 9% experienced a minor decline. 15% stated that their income remained unchanged, and 5% even reported an increase in their wages.

International and relevant Russian news

The International Criminal Court had already launched an investigation of Russia’s destruction of the Nova Kakhovka Dam (NKD) in Kherson Oblast, Ukraine’s President stated. 

The NKD “destruction could, in principle, be prosecuted under various provisions in the ICC Statute, including the war crime of intentionally directing attacks against civilian objects and a provision concerning attacks that cause serious damage to the natural environment. It could possibly also be prosecuted as a crime against humanity, potentially with reference to utilizing environmental destruction to attack the civilian population,” Just Security made a preliminary assessment of the legal conditions of what could potentially become the Court’s first environmental crimes investigation. 

In another incident, Russia blew up a dam near the village of Novodarivka on the Mokri Yaly River, approximately 80 km away from the illegally occupied Donetsk City. Prior to that, they also destroyed the Karlovske Reservoir, located about 30 km from Donetsk.

Raytheon Technologies will increase production and deliver five additional Patriot air defense systems to Ukraine by the end of 2024, WSJ reported.

Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev posted a tweet on Russia’s Day featuring a photo of Independence Square in Kyiv with the Russian tricolor flag, accompanied by the caption “soon to be a square of Russia.”

Along with the propagandists, Russian officials aren’t shy anymore, showing intentions of a neo-imperial conquest. Alexander Dugin, a controversial Russian figure known for his far-right views, expressed his opinion on social media, claiming that Russia Day is celebrated on the wrong day and criticizing the actions of Boris Yeltsin, which he believes have undermined the existence of Russia. “The real day of Russia is ahead; this is the day of our Victory, the day of the capture of Kyiv,” he wrote on social media.

Evgeniya Kara-Murza, the wife of a Russian opposition figure and journalist sentenced to 25 years in prison, spoke to DW about the state of society in Russia. She believes that civil institutions and horizontal connections have been destroyed, leaving people unaware of their role as active participants in the state. Kara-Murza emphasizes the need to acknowledge the past in order to rectify the errors made, viewing it as the first step towards improvement. 

Meanwhile, the Russian opposition organized a media marathon called “You Are Not Alone” to raise funds for political prisoners in Russia.

The Legion “Freedom of Russia,” a unit within the Ukrainian Armed Forces, hacked local radios in Russia’s Krasnodar region, Tyumen, and Kursk, broadcasting messages of liberating Russia, holding war criminals accountable, and returning Crimea to Ukraine.

New Zealand’s public radio station issued an apology for publishing manipulated articles on its website, which contained “pro-Kremlin garbage.” More than a dozen wire stories on the Russian war had been altered, incorporating pro-Kremlin narratives such as the claim that “Russia annexed Crimea after a referendum” and that “neo-Nazis had created a threat” to Russia’s borders.

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