Russia’s war on Ukraine. Daily Snapshot. 13.06.2023
- Опубліковано: CDS
- Категорія: DailyBrief
Snapshot of the day:
- The flood waters in Kherson and Mykolayiv Oblasts are receding. The Kakhovka Reservoir has shrunk by 50%; mine danger in formerly flooded areas increased. No cholera has been detected;
- The Russian Federation does not provide security guarantees to the UN mission to go to the flooded parts of Kherson Oblast currently occupied by Russia;
- Russia launched another missile and drone attack on Ukraine at night. 11 out of 16 cruise missiles and 1 out of 4 UAVs were shot down.
- Russian missiles hit a residential area in Kryvyi Rih, killing 11 people and injuring 36;
- The Ukrainian Defense Forces have broken through the enemy’s defense on the Zaporizhzhia direction throughout its tactical depth, at least in five sectors.
- Ukrainian Defense Forces are developing success, advancing towards Tokmak, trying to bypass and surround the Russian forces in Polohy;
- The enemy is attempting to attack the forward units of the Defense Forces, pulling them deeper into their defense by deliberate withdrawal, thereby drawing them away from the air defense and EW.
- The U.K. government announced plans to procure weapons and equipment worth $116 million. The U.S. is about to announce a new package worth $325 million, including more Stryker and Bradley armored fighting vehicles.
- The leaders of Poland, Germany, and France talked about supporting Ukraine’s war effort, security guarantees, and a message they are ready to send at the Vilnius summit.
- Further attempts have been made to frame Ukraine analytically out of the NATO security alliance. Robert Clarke of Stand Together repeated Russian propaganda narratives and proposed to leave Ukraine in Russia’s sphere of influence. Robert E. Hunter, a U.S. ambassador to NATO (1993-98), proposed not to feed Russian paranoia and push Ukraine to implement Minsk arrangements.
- Antony Blinken believes that Ukraine’s success in the counteroffensive would strengthen its position at any negotiating table.
- The French uncovered a major disinformation anti-Ukrainian campaign waged by Russia.
- Vladimir Putin blamed Ukraine for blowing up the Nova Kakhovka dam and accused the West of supporting al-Qaeda fighting in the Northern Caucasus in 1990th-2000th.
Consequences of the Kakhovka dam destruction
In Kherson Oblast, the water level continues to recede. 3,600 houses in 31 villages on the right bank are still flooded, and 17 settlements on the left bank remain submerged. However, travel between villages is becoming possible as the water recedes. Efforts to pump water from people’s yards have commenced. People are warned not to enter their houses before they are inspected for mines. As of June 12, the Kakhovka reservoir has decreased by 50%, Ukrhydroenergo said.
According to the Head of the Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration, Yuriy Malashko, the pipe that gets water to the Bilenkivska community has been extended, so no issues with water supplies are expected shortly. Zaporizhzhia receives water from the upper pool, where the water level increases. The water level in the cooling pond at the Zaporizhzhya NPP is normal due to wells and reservoirs near the TPP. There are no problems with the water supply in the temporarily occupied territories: it is taken from wells and the Berdyansk reservoir.
Deputy Health Minister and Chief State Sanitary Doctor, Ihor Kuzin, has reported that approximately 40 water monitoring points have been set up along the Dnipro riverbed. Daily water sampling is being conducted to detect the causative agent of cholera. Currently, no cholera cases have been detected in the southern regions of Ukraine. However, rotavirus has been identified in Odesa Oblast.
The flooding in the formerly occupied Snihyrivka district of Mykolaiv Oblast has created complications in the mine-affected areas. The flooding has the potential to displace mines, making it difficult to ensure the safety of the cleared areas. Additionally, the mines may now be buried under a thicker layer of dirt and ground due to the floodwaters, further complicating the situation.
The UN continues to work with the governments of Ukraine and the Russian Federation in order to gain access to all civilians who suffered from the consequences of the destruction of the Kakhovka HPP dam. “From an operational perspective, our boats, staff and supplies are ready to go. However, the Russian Federation has not yet provided security guarantees necessary for the crossing to the left bank of the Dnipro River, including to the city of Oleshky,” said Denise Brown, the humanitarian coordinator of the UN in Ukraine.
Over the past day, Russian forces attacked 9 Ukrainian Oblasts.
Russian occupiers launched another air and missile attack on Ukraine, using 16 Kh-101/Kh-555 air-based cruise missiles and four Iranian Shahed attack UAVs against critical infrastructure facilities in Kharkiv Oblast and residential buildings in Kryvyi Rih, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Two waves of attacks were recorded. 11 cruise missiles and 1 UAV were shot down by Ukrainian air defense. Ukrainian Air Force Speaker stressed that Ukraine lacks air defense and planes to protect itself from Russian attacks.
In Kryvyi Rih, the rockets hit five peaceful objects overnight that have nothing to do with the military, Oleksandr Vilkul, head of the military administration of Kryvyi Rih, said. 11 people died, including a 17-year-old boy. As of the evening of June 13, there were 36 injured by the rocket attacks. The enemy struck a five-storey residential building, a transport company, and a warehouse where water [for the region, which suffers from the Russian sabotage of Kakhovka HPP dam] and other civilian objects. More than 70 residential buildings and about 400 apartments were damaged.
On the temporarily occupied territory of Kherson Oblast, the Russian army shells the evacuation points in Hola Prystan affected by the explosion of the Kakhovka HPP, blaming this on the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported. The occupation authorities force locals to say on video how grateful they are to the Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations for the supposed rescue and evacuation. However, in reality, the people had to rely on each other for rescue and assistance. Upon returning to the city after the situation stabilized and the water receded, residents are discovering that their homes have been looted and looted.
According to the legally elected mayor of Melitopol, Ivan Fedorov, the Russian occupation authorities are preventing civilians from leaving the frontline villages in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Residents of Verkhnya Krynytsia and Pyatykhatky, located 75 km from Melitopol, have reported that only traitors [collaborators] were permitted to leave in their own vehicles following the announcement of the “evacuation.” Civilians are being denied the opportunity to leave at the same time.
Russian occupiers mined the fields in the Krasnoperekopsk district of the temporarily occupied Crimea, Eskender Bariev, the head of the department for legal issues and foreign affairs of the Mejlis of the Crimean Tatar people, said.
According to Vladyslav Dudar, a representative of the Department of Environmental Safety and Mine Action of the Ministry of Defense, Russian forces are regularly detonating small dams in villages in Zaporizhzhya and Kherson Oblasts to hinder the Ukrainian counteroffensive. These actions have resulted in some damage to agricultural lands in one or two villages on each occasion, but no significant-scale destruction has been reported.
Operational situation (as of the morning of June 13)
- The Ukrainian Defense Forces successfully penetrated the Russian defenses in the Zaporizhzhya direction throughout the entire tactical depth in at least five sectors.
- Ukrainian Defense Forces are developing success, advancing towards Tokmak, trying to bypass and surround the Russian forces in Polohy;
- Command of the Russian “South” troop grouping conducted an unsuccessful counterattack with the forces of the 127th motorized rifle division;
- Russian forces are trying to attack the forward units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces, pulling them deep into their defense with a deliberate retreat. This maneuver aims to draw them away from the air defense and EW.
- Unfavorable weather conditions prevent the use of aviation.
Change in the line of contact (LoC):
- 26 combat clashes took place on different fronts.
- In the Lyman direction, Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive actions in the area of Vesele in Kharkiv Oblast and Bilohorivka in Luhansk Oblast. Russian forces repelled an attack of the Ukrainian Defense Forces at the Lyman Pershyi – Vilshany frontier.
- In the Bakhmut direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces advanced up to 700 meters on the Bakhmut flanks, stormed Berkhivka, and keep advancing near Yahidne and Klishchiivka.
- Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked near Ivanivske and Bila Hora.
- In the Avdiivka direction, Russian forces carried out offensive actions in the direction of Avdiivka and failed.
- Ukrainian Defense Forces unsuccessfully stormed Russian positions near Opytne and Vodyane.
- In the Zaporizhzhia direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces advanced west of Novodonetske; liberated areas south and southwest of Velyka Novosilka, including Levadne, Novodarivka, Neskuchne, Storozheve, Blahodatne, and Makarivka. They are advancing south of Makarivka.
- Ukrainian Defense Forces defeated units of the 60th separate motorized rifle brigade, 366th rifle battalion and the “Kaskad” formation. The Russian 127th motorized rifle division counterattack in the Staromayorsk area was repulsed by the artillery of the Ukrainian Defense Forces and their complete defeat after the enemy fell into ambushes set by the Defense Forces in the area of Storozheve. The eastern flank of the counterattack was broken by the Defense Forces’ units in the Urozhaine area. Developing their success, the 35th separate marines brigade liberated Staromlynivka.
- Russian forces retreated 10 kilometers south of Velyka Novosilka.
Change in enemy disposition:
- Units of the 85th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 2nd Army Corps of the 8th Army were spotted near Bilohorivka.
- The Chechen detachment “Akhmat-Sevier (North)” operates in the Maryinka direction.
- The 110th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 1st Army Corps of the 8th Army operates near Krasnohorivka.
- The 417th separate reconnaissance battalion of the 42nd motorized rifle division (the 58th Army) operates on the first line of defense in the direction of Robotyne – Verbove to the south and southeast of Orikhiv.
- Russian troops transferred the 11th separate coastal missile division of the Black Sea Fleet (Permanent dislocation – Utash village of the Krasnodar Territory), armed with the Bal anti-ship missile system, to the Bryansk Oblast.
- The Russian military command is transferring conscripts of the 96th separate reconnaissance brigade of the 1st tank army from Nizhny Novgorod (Russia) to the border areas of Belgorod and Bryansk Oblasts.
Escalation indicators: Not detected.
Possible operation situation developments:
- Ukrainian Defense Forces will develop their offensive in the direction of Melitopol and with a part of the forces – to Tokmak; Polohy – Berdyansk; Velyka Novosilka – Berdyansk;
- A successful Ukrainian Defense Forces’ attack on Horlivka and Yasynuvata may lead to the loss of the entire line of Russian defense in the Donetsk direction, the cities of Donetsk and Makiyivka;
- The successful breach of the first position of the 58th Army forces compels the Russian command on the theater of operations to initiate a counterattack on a different front in order to impede the progress of the Defense Forces on the Zaporizhzhia front.
- The enemy will continue missile and aerial strikes aimed at reducing the offensive capabilities of the Defense Forces both in the deep rear (airfields, troop concentration areas, logistics and transportation infrastructure) and in tactical and operational depth. An increase in the number of sorties by the strike aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces can be expected on the Zaporizhzhia direction.
Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:
- As of June 13, there were 5 Russian ships at sea. They patrolled the areas near Crimea and along the coast of the Taman Peninsula. There were no Kalibr missile carriers among them. The “Admiral Makarov” frigate went to sea for a few hours on June 12, but returned to the Sevastopol base.
- The following vessels are at sea:
- pr. 864 “Priazovye” reconnaissance ship – northeast of SINOP;
- pr. 22160 “Pavel Derzhavin” patrol ship with SAM “Tor-M2KM” on board – to the southeast of Cape Zaliznyi Rih (entrance to the Kerch Strait);
- pr. 22460 border ship – southeast of ALUSHTA;
- pr. 22460 “Izumrud” border ship – southern part of the KERCH strait;
- pr. 10410 border ship – south of SOCHI;
- In the Azov Sea waters, project 1124M “Eysk” corvette is patrolling in the northern part of the Kerch Strait.
- Russian aviation continues to fly from the Crimean airfields of Belbek, Saky, Dzhankoy and Hvardiyske over the sea. Seven fighter aircraft from Belbek and Saki Air Force Bases were involved in monitoring the surface and air conditions in the northwestern part of the Black Sea, namely three Su-27/30 (BELBEK), two Su-24MR and two Mig-29 UK (SAKI).
- Air situation control and operational-tactical aviation management over the Azov Sea waters were carried out by A-50U AWACS aircraft, Il-22 relay aircraft, and Il-22PP jamming aircraft.
Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 13.06.23
Personnel – almost 216,650 people (+470);
Tanks – 3,935 (+4);
Armored combat vehicles – 7,642 (+6);
Artillery systems – 3,766 (+20);
Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 601 (0);
Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 363 (+1);
Vehicles and fuel tanks – 6,473 (+2);
Aircraft – 314 (0);
Helicopters – 300 (+1);
UAV operational and tactical level – 3,309 (+2);
Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,183 (0);
Boats/ships – 18 (0).
Ukraine, general news
The Cabinet of Ministers has approved the creation of deputy minister and deputy head positions responsible for reconstruction in 8 ministries and 12 regional administrations. This decision aims to ensure a high-quality approach to the planning of reconstruction projects and programs, according to Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal.
International diplomatic aspect
The U.K. government announced plans to procure weapons and equipment worth $116 million through the International Fund for Ukraine in the coming months.
There appear to be no significant obstacles to approving the depleted-uranium rounds for Ukraine, a senior Biden Administration official told WSJ.
As Ukraine’s counteroffensive has started and the first losses of the Western equipment are evident, the Biden Administration is planning to announce another aid package worth $325 million. It will include more Stryker and Bradley armored fighting vehicles to replace those damaged and destroyed on the battlefield.
Meanwhile, the DOD Inspector General reported minor gaps in accountability of the U.S. military aid delivered to Ukraine. Not all paperwork has been done before shipping packages to Ukraine. “While we did not discover any instances where the DOD lost items or transferred excess items, the gaps in accountability we identified could increase the risk of those situations happening in the future,” Robert P. Storch said.
“For the sake of Europe’s security, it is of fundamental importance that Russian imperialism be extinguished,” the Polish President stated while meeting his German and French counterparts. President Duda emphasized the importance of providing a clear timeline and roadmap for Ukraine’s NATO membership. However, President Macron and Chancellor Scholz talked about the support of Ukraine’s counteroffensive and a sort of security guarantee instead. “We have been discussing security guarantees since the start of the war… We have made decisions to support Ukraine for as long as needed. This debate is intense between us, Germany, France, and its U.S. partners… We will finalize [our proposal] when we have the results of our talks. But… it must be very concrete,” vaguely formulated Olaf Scholz.
While nothing encouraging about Ukraine’s NATO membership came out of the Weimar Triangle, there have been ongoing efforts to analyze and position Ukraine outside the framework of the NATO security alliance.
Robert Clarke, the director of marketing strategy for foreign policy at Stand Together, quotes all Russia-sounding politicians and proposes to leave Ukraine to face Russia alone. “Rather than pursuing immediate NATO membership, alternative approaches should be explored to enhance Ukraine’s security and stability. Engaging in cooperative security arrangements, such as enhanced partnerships, military cooperation, and diplomatic initiatives, can offer Ukraine the necessary support and reassurance it needs in the wake of this conflict, without triggering unnecessary escalations or further compromising regional stability,” he proposed as if assurances of the Budapest Memorandum, NATO EOP, and diplomacy succeeded in preventing the Russian invasion in 2014 and again in 2022. He thinks that “Ukraine’s accession could have far-reaching consequences for regional stability and international relations,” as if Russia’s success in Ukraine, even without full control, would have minimal impact on these factors.
Robert E. Hunter, a U.S. ambassador to NATO (1993-98), in the Responsible Statecraft argued that “if Ukraine were a member of NATO, the Alliance — including the United States — would be formally at war with Russia and not just in today’s “indirect” or “proxy” war.” And he continues to suggest that the U.S. failure to “pursue direct military conflict with Russia… the credibility of U.S. guarantees to other NATO allies would come into question; and so would the credibility of U.S. commitments to allies elsewhere, notably in Asia.”
Such logic implies that East Flank nations should be expelled from NATO, as Russia proposed in its draft “security guarantees” in December 2021, which was essentially an attempt to justify its invasion.
Following Robert E. Hunter’s logic, Poland and the Baltic states could have argued for increased probabilities of a direct conflict with Russia. Should the U.S. fail to respond, China would exploit it. However, despite his arguments, the purpose of a defense alliance, after all, is to serve as a deterrent and provide defense in the worst-case scenario.
“Putin’s aggression against Ukraine did not happen “out of the clear blue sky,” Robert E. Hunter puts the blame on the West right after prizing his personal contribution to avoiding “humiliating Russia for losing the Cold War and disintegrating” in the 1990th. He believes that “both sides share measures of responsibility” for “reaching any practical agreement with Russia on the future of European security,” which in fact would have meant Russia’s veto and domination over the rest.
Robert E. Hunter suggest to “start discussing quietly with allies the post-war security aspirations for Europe” as if NATO isn’t relevant anymore and should be replaced with something else. He might think that it’s not that impossible to brush off the dust from Lisbon – Vladivostok security dystopia. As per “negotiating possibilities for ending the Russia-Ukraine war,” he suggested the Minsk arrangements, which would mean accepting Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea, and the following strategic and legal implications for Europe, and de-facto partitioning Ukraine in form of a “major measure of autonomy” for “areas of the country with predominantly Russian speakers and adherents of Russian culture” or at least those who survived.
“Ukraine’s success in the counteroffensive would do two things. It would strengthen its position at any negotiating table that emerges, and it may have the effect, as well, of actually causing Putin to finally focus on negotiating an end to the war that he started,” the U.S. Secretary of State said while at the press conference with the Italian Foreign Minister. “In that sense, it can actually bring peace closer, not put it further away,” Blinken added.
French MFA stated it had uncovered a major disinformation campaign waged by Russia, involving posting false news items hostile to Ukraine that looked like prominent French news organizations had published them.
Vladimir Putin blamed Ukraine for blowing up the Nova Kakhovka dam. “By and large, we did not record large explosions before the destruction occurred. At least, that’s what I was told. But they purposefully hit the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Station repeatedly with HIMARS – that’s the whole point,” the Russian President lied. The Russian leader accused the West of supporting al-Qaeda fighting in the Northern Caucasus in 1990th-2000th. He couldn’t resist sharing his pseudohistorical views about Vladimir Lenin creating Ukraine and Western leaders deciding to demolish the Soviet Union.
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