Russia’s war on Ukraine. Daily Snapshot. 14.06.2023

Snapshot of the day:

General, humanitarian:

• The flood water level continues to go down. 3,103 residential buildings in 28 liberated towns and villages remain flooded;
• The situation with water supply in some areas of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast remains difficult;
• Pollution of the surface waters in Mykolayiv and Kherson Oblast is within the norm, salinity of the Black Sea has temporarily decreased; 
• Infection hubs to conduct cholera testing deployed in southern Oblasts of Ukraine; 
• Over the past day, the Russian forces attacked 11 Oblasts of Ukraine, shelling intensity in the south of the country decreased, and attacks increasingly target regions in the rear;
• Over the past two weeks, the Russians have been targeting the ammonia pipeline in the Kupyansk district of Kharkiv Oblast.

Military: 

• Ukrainian Defense forces develop an offensive operation in at least three directions and have achieved further territorial gains;
• Russian forces intensify the use of strike aircraft on targets in the tactical depth of the Ukrainian Defense Forces;
• The Russian military widely relies on minefields hoping to slow down the advance of the Ukrainian Defense Forces;
• The Russian 58th Army in the south of Zaporizhzhia Oblast faces significant supply issues because the railway bridges on the Crimea – Melitopol route were destroyed.
• Sea: Russian President Putin said that Russia is considering withdrawing from the “Grain Initiative”.

International:

• The Netherlands will buy four VERA-EG passive radar systems, and Sweden will hand over 250 mines detectors to Ukraine. The Swiss Parliament cleared the way for Germany to buy 25 Leopard MBTs that may substitute the same number of tanks it may send to Ukraine.
• “Russia doesn’t get a voice or a veto on NATO’s open-door policy,” the U.S. Ambassador to NATO said. Several countries insist that a timetable and a specific goal for true membership of Ukraine should be set at Vilnius. Yet, it’s been reported that the Biden Administration has not made up its mind to give a clear signal. Ukraine’s Foreign Minister believes that “creating the NATO-Ukraine Council without taking a strong step toward membership is like providing a tank without a gun.”
• Luxembourg’s Parliament has recognized the Holodomor of 1932-1933 as a genocide against Ukrainians.
• Almost 600 Hash al-Shaabi fighters have been trained in Iraq to be employed in Russia’s war against Ukraine.
• Ukraine’s Security Service has indicted Alexandr Dugin, an ideologist of Russian fascism, on charges of genocide and encroachment on the territorial integrity of Ukraine.

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Consequences of the Kakhovka dam destruction

According to the Kherson Oblast Military Administration, as of the morning June 14, the average water level was 2.13 meters. This is 32 centimeters lower than the night before. The water level continues to go down. 28 liberated towns and villages remain flooded. The water completely left the villages of Zapovit, Bobrovy Kut and Burgunka. In total, 3,103 residential buildings remain flooded. Over the past day, the water receded from about half a thousand houses. The Ministry of Environment reports that the water level in the Dnipro at the Kherson mark has dropped by more than 3 meters and is 2.44 meters. The water level drops by 1-3 cm every hour.

The situation with water supply in some areas of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast remains difficult, the head of the Dnipropetrovsk regional council, Mykola Lukashuk, said. The situation is the most difficult in the Nikopol district, specifically in three large communities – Nikopol, Marhanets, and Pokrovske. 20-30 points are organized in each city where drinking water is distributed.

Infection hubs have been deployed in the territories affected by Russia’s detonation of the Kakhovka HPP. They will admit patients with acute intestinal and other infectious diseases, the Ministry of Health reports. Every patient with a severe case of an acute intestinal infection or a gastrointestinal tract disorder will be additionally examined for the causative agent of cholera. Hospitals of Kherson, Mykolaiv and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts are ready to accept such patients.

A temporary decrease in water salinity was recorded in the Black Sea, and turbidity was recorded in the Inhulets River and the Dnipro-Bugh estuary. Otherwise, water purity is within the norm, and exceeding the maximum allowable concentrations of pollutants has not been recorded. The research was conducted on June 12-13 by experts of the State Environmental Inspection of Ukraine, the State Agency for Water Resources of Ukraine and mobile laboratories, which constantly monitor surface water quality and record environmental damage in Kherson and Mykolaiv Oblasts.

Russian attacks

The Russian invaders have attacked 11 regions of Ukraine over the past day, and there are killed and wounded civilians, heads of relevant local administrators reported.

In the Southern direction, the intensity of Russian shelling somewhat decreased, while the invaders concentrated their attacks on the rear regions, the head of the joint press center of the operational command “South” Nataliya Gumenyuk reported.

The Russian forces shelled the border areas of Sumy Oblast 21 times; 101 explosions were recorded; 7 employees of the State Forestry Service were killed as they were driving in a car.  

On the night of June 14, the Russian navy attacked Odesa with 4 Kalibr missiles, three people were killed, and 13 were injured. As a result of an air battle, an office building, stores and a McDonald’s restaurant in downtown Odesa were damaged by a blast wave. One missile hit a retailer’s storage facility. 

Around 5 a.m., the Russian army launched rocket attacks on  Kramatorsk and Kostiantynivka in Donetsk Oblast, three people were killed, and three were injured. The Russian occupiers also attacked Kirovohrad Oblast with drones; there was an impact of “Shakhed” on an infrastructure object in Svitlovodsk.

Over the past two weeks, the Russians have been targeting the ammonia pipeline in the Kupyansk district of Kharkiv Oblast, Oleg Synehubov, the head of the Kharkiv Regional Military Administration, said. “Currently, our experts have not detected a leak of technical ammonia that remains in the pipes. However, the danger exists,” Synehubov said.

Occupied territories

Referring to reports of people who were able to evacuate from the disaster zone in the occupied parts of Kherson Oblast to the territory controlled by Ukraine, the National Resistance Center of the Ukrainian MOD reports that the occupiers imposed a 20-day quarantine, which makes access to the occupied city of Oleshky difficult. People are not allowed to leave the city without a Russian passport, and one can get it only in Skadovsk. The Center reports that cases of shooting those who tried to evacuate Oleshky were recorded. Russian soldiers on boats patrol the city, ignoring people and animals drowning or sitting on the roofs of houses.

The conservation of the Zaporizhzhya NPP and its decommissioning due to the emergency at the Kakhovka HPP are not considered – the illegal Russian administration of the plant said today. Earlier, the State Nuclear Regulatory Authority of Ukraine ordered “Energoatom” to put the power unit No. 5 of the Zaporizhzhya NPP into a “cold shutdown” state due to the dangerous and unpredictable actions of the Russian occupying forces. The Ukrainian side has asked IAEA to help implement this decision. 

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Operational situation

General conclusion: 

• Ukrainian Defense forces develop an offensive operation in at least three directions and have achieved further territorial gains;
• Russian forces intensify the use of strike aircraft (mainly Su-34 bombers with UMPK bombs) on targets in the tactical depth of the Ukrainian Defense Forces, 20-40 km;
• The Russian military widely relies on minefields hoping to slow down the advance of the Ukrainian Defense Forces;
• The Russian 58th Army in the south of Zaporizhzhia Oblast faces significant supply problems due to the destruction of railway bridges by the Defense Forces on the Crimea-Melitopol route.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

• 28 combat clashes took place on different fronts.
• In the Lyman direction, Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive actions in the area of Bilohorivka, Vesele and Rozdolivka.
• In the Bakhmut direction, the Russian forces carried out unsuccessful offensive actions in the direction of Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Ivanivske and Bila Hora. The Ukrainian defense forces have advanced in the area of the Berkhiv Reservoir, in the direction of Toretsk. Fighting continues in the areas of Yahidne and Klishchiivka.
• In the Avdiivka direction, the Russian military carried out unsuccessful offensive actions in the direction of Avdiivka. The Russian military command is transferring additional forces from the eastern Kherson Oblast to strengthen the direction. Chechen detachments “Akhmat-Yug (South)” and “Akhmat-Sever (North)” arrived at the Avdiivka-Donetsk frontier.
• In the Shakhtarsk direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces fought between Blahodatne and Volnovakha. The enemy artillery of the 68th Army Corps of the Eastern Military District operates in the Vuhledar area.
• In the Zaporizhzhia direction, fighting continues in the areas east of Makarivka, north of Novodanylivka and Novopokrovka. The Ukrainian Defense Forces attacked near Pyatykhatky and Dorozhianka; fighting continues south of Orikhiv and near Lobkove.
• The 33rd and 47th separate mechanized brigades of the Ukrainian Defense Forces could not break through from Lobkove to Orikhiv and retreated. However, they forced the commander of the 58th Army to transfer the 22nd separate SOF brigade from the second to the first line of defense.
• At the junction of the 58th and 35th Armies, the Ukraine Defense Forces defeated the Russian garrisons in Neskuchne, Blahodatne, Storozhove, Staromayorske, and Urozhaine. Russian units of the 60th separate motorized rifle brigade and 336th separate marines brigade were defeated and retreated.
• Russian troops unsuccessfully attacked on the Vremivka ledge, near Blahodatne; fighting continues near Staromayorske and Urozhaine. They repulsed two Ukrainian attacks near Rivnopillia.

Change in enemy disposition: 

• Russian command transferred the 30th artillery brigade of the 36th Army and the 305th artillery brigade of the 5th Army to the Vremivka direction.
• Russian “volunteer” formations operate in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, in particular the “Crimea”, “Storm-Ossetia”, “Alania” and “Sarmat” battalions; units of the 58th Army of the Southern Military District, in particular the 72nd and 291st motorized rifle regiments of the 42nd motorized rifle division, 429th motorized rifle regiment of the 19th motorized rifle division.

Possible operation situation developments: 

• Ukrainian Defense Forces will develop their offensive in the direction of Melitopol and with a part of the forces – to Tokmak; Polohy – Berdyansk; Velyka Novosilka – Berdyansk;
• The enemy will continue missile and aerial strikes aimed at reducing the offensive capabilities of the Defense Forces both in the deep rear (airfields, troop concentration areas, logistics and transportation infrastructure) and in tactical and operational depth. An increase in the number of sorties by the strike aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces can be expected on the Zaporizhzhia direction.

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area: 

• As of the morning of June 14, there were 7 Russian ships at sea. They patrolled the areas near Crimea and along the coast of the Taman Peninsula. There are three Kalibr missile carriers among them: a frigate, a corvette and a submarine. On the night of June 14, Russian ships attacked the city of Odesa with Kalibr missiles. Air defense shot two missiles down, but objects in Odesa were hit, and there were casualties and injuries.
• Russian aviation continues to fly from the Crimean airfields of Belbek, Saky, Dzhankoy and Hvardiyske over the sea. Ten fighter aircraft from Belbek and Saki Air Force Bases were involved in monitoring the surface and air conditions in the northwestern part of the Black Sea, namely six Su-27/30 (BELBEK), two Su-24MR and two Mig-29 UK (SAKI).  
• Air situation control and operational-tactical aviation management over the waters of the Azov Sea were conducted by A-50U AWACS aircraft, Il-22 relay aircraft, and Il-22PP jamming aircraft.

The “Grain Initiative”

• During a meeting with pro-Kremlin journalists, Russian President Putin stated on June 13 that Russia is considering withdrawing from the “Grain Initiative.” “Now we are thinking about withdrawing from this so-called grain agreement. Moreover, these corridors through which ships travel are constantly used to launch naval drones,” Putin said. According to him, Russia concluded the agreement in order to help “friendly” countries of Africa and Latin America and maintain good relations. “We are not doing this for Ukraine, we are doing it for our friendly countries in Africa and Latin America. Because grain should go primarily to the poorest countries in the world,” said the Russian president. He complained that Russia did not receive the expected benefit from the agreement.
• On June 5, the Ministry of Development of Communities, Territories and Infrastructure of Ukraine reported that the Russian Federation resumed the registration of the merchant fleet within the framework of the “Grain Initiative”, violating the permanent algorithm of registration and inspection of vessels at the same time. Currently, one ship departs from Ukrainian ports every 2 days – in October 2022, there were 7-8 ships per day.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 14.06.23 

Personnel – almost 217,330 people (+680);

Tanks – 3,943 (+8);

Armored combat vehicles – 7,653 (+11);

Artillery systems – 3,783 (+17);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 603 (+2);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 364 (+1);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 6,482 (+9);

Aircraft – 314 (0);

Helicopters – 300 (+1);

UAV operational and tactical level – 3,324 (+15);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,196 (+13);

Boats/ships – 18 (0).

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Ukraine, general news

Due to technical water supply issues caused by the destruction of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant dam by Russian occupiers, PJSC “ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih,” a mining and metallurgical plant in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, has announced a 50% reduction in its production. Prior to the dam destruction, the company was operating at 30-40% of its pre-war capacity. However, due to the water shortage, production levels have now decreased to another 15-20%. The company estimates it will take at least six months to secure alternative water sources and resume production.

Ukraine’s fishing industry losses following the destruction of the Kakhovka reservoir may be estimated at over UAH 11 billion. Due to the flooding of two state-owned fish breeding plants of the State Fisheries Agency alone, Ukrainian reservoirs will be short on valuable species of aquatic bioresources in the amount of 16 million fish annually, the State Fisheries Agency said.

International diplomatic aspect

The Netherlands will buy four VERA-EG passive radar systems worth €150 million for Ukraine. Meanwhile, the Swiss Parliament has voted to decommission twenty-five Leopard MBTs, which may be sold to Germany as a replacement for the same number of tanks that Germany could potentially transfer to Ukraine. Sweden will hand over 250 mines detectors to Ukraine to cope with the consequences of the Kakhovka dam destruction by Russia.

“Russia doesn’t get a voice or a veto on NATO’s open-door policy. We support Ukraine’s aspirations, its Euro-Atlantic aspirations, to fully integrate into Euro-Atlantic institutions,” U.S. Ambassador to NATO Julianne Smith said. Several countries insist that a timetable and a specific goal for true membership of Ukraine should be set at the Vilnius NATO summit “but only after the war stops raging,” according to NYT. 

Yet, reports indicate that the Biden Administration is still deliberating on providing a clear signal regarding Ukraine’s NATO membership. Germany is leaning toward the U.S. “cautious” approach. It appears that instead of NATO promise, the allies are working out the legal framework for long-term military assistance to Ukraine. “In our call, I thanked Annalena Baerbock for the support. We talked about Vilnius. Ukraine’s position is clear: creating the NATO-Ukraine Council without taking a strong step toward membership is like providing a tank without a gun. NATO needs Ukraine as an Ally, not just a privileged partner,” Dmytro Kuleba tweeted.

Luxembourg’s Parliament has recognized the Holodomor of 1932-1933 as a genocide against Ukrainians. “I commend Luxembourg’s Chamber of Deputies’ historic vote to recognize Stalin’s Holodomor of 1932-1933 as genocide against Ukrainians. This step honors millions of victims and restores historical justice. The international acknowledgment of the Holodomor genocide continues to rise,” Ukraine’s Foreign Minister twitted. So far, thirty countries have recognized the Holodomor as a genocide of Ukrainians, with Estonia and Australia being the first ones (1993).

Almost 600 Hash al-Shaabi fighters have been trained in Iraq to be employed in Russia’s war against Ukraine, according to the Babel, which quoted sources from Ukrainian Intelligence. Hash al-Shaabi is a coalition of “people’s militias” created in 2014 by the Iraqi government to counter the Islamic State. Some of the chieftains of those militias are recognized by the U.S. as terrorists.

Ukraine’s Security Service has indicted Alexandr Dugin, an ideologist of Russian fascism, on charges of genocide and encroachment on the territorial integrity of Ukraine. He has been publicly denying the existence of Ukraine as a sovereign state for more than a decade and has been calling for the military seizure of the country. Dugin has been supporting the all-out invasion and justifying war crimes against Ukraine, massive physical murder of Ukrainians, as well as targeting the civil infrastructure.

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