Russia’s war on Ukraine. Daily Snapshot. 17.06.2023

Snapshot of the day:

General, humanitarian:

• 6 settlements (1,274 houses) on the right bank of the Dnipro River and 17 settlements in the temporarily occupied territory remain flooded;
• Over the past day, 9 Ukrainian Oblasts came under Russian fire; 
• Crimean partisan unit Atesh warns of another possible man-made disaster at the Crimean Titan plant, echoing an earlier warning from Ukrainian officials; 
• The occupying Russian authorities take almost 300 children from the Berdyansk district, Zaporizhzhia Oblast to Chuvashia (Russian Federation);

Military: 

• Ukrainian Defense forces continued advancing in three directions in Zaporizhzhya Oblast.
• The Russian military command is making significant efforts to hold its positions in the Staromlynivka area, which serves as the final defense node protecting the exit to the main defensive line in the Velyka Novosilka direction.
• Ukrainian Defense forces lack EW capabilities to counter [enemy’s] UAVs
• The Defense Forces’ artillery plays a crucial role in providing direct fire support. The M270 MLRS and HIMARS systems are used for long-range fire, inflicting significant damage on enemy targets.
• Russian troops are returning to previously flooded positions on the left bank of Kherson Oblast and intensifying shelling in this area.
• Ukrainian Defense Forces will develop their offensive in the direction of Polohy – Berdyansk; Velyka Novosilka – Berdyansk; Orikhiv – Melitopol and with part of the forces – to Tokmak;
• There will be no deep breakthroughs by the Ukrainian Defense Forces in the coming week;
• The Defense Forces’ command is determined to expand the frontline as much as possible and intensify combat operations in multiple sectors to disperse the enemy’s reserves ahead of the main attack(s).
• The Russian military command switches to a strategy of gaining time, hoping to conduct another mobilization and significantly increase its operational capabilities.

International:

• Ukraine, Czechia, and Slovakia are to purchase and maintain Swedish-made CV90 IFVs. Denmark is ready to donate F-16s to Ukraine as Ukrainian pilots are about to start their training.
• The U.S. will provide $205 million in additional humanitarian assistance to Ukraine.
• The Estonian Parliament declared the establishment of a special international tribunal under the auspices of the UNGA a foreign policy priority.
• The overwhelming majority of Russians believe Russia shouldn’t employ nuclear weapons in Ukraine under any circumstances; two-thirds of Russians believe that Putin isn’t ready to employ nuclear weapons in Ukraine; more than half of Russians think there’s no justification for nuclear use.

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Consequences of the Kakhovka dam destruction

As of 6 p.m. on June 17, 6 settlements (1,274 houses) on the right bank of the Dnipro River and 17 settlements in the temporarily occupied territory remain flooded, State Emergency Service reported.

In the Kryvyi Rih district of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Hrushivska and Vakulivska communities were utterly left without a centralized water supply as a result of the explosion of the Kakhovka HPP, and Apostolivska and Zelenodolska in part, according to the head of the Kryvyi Rih district military administration Yevhen Sytnychenko.

Due to Russia’s terrorist act at the Kakhovka HPP, Velikiy Lug and Kamianska Sich national parks are gradually becoming a desert, Minister of Environment Protection and Natural Resources Ruslan Strelets reported.

Russian attacks

Russian forces continued indiscriminately attacking Ukrainian territory. Over the past day, 9 Ukrainian Oblasts came under Russian fire. Some of the consequences include:

• Russian forces attacked Kyiv Oblast with various types of missiles and drones. All targets were shot down by air defense. There were no hits. As a result of falling debris, six people were injured in one of the villages, including one child.
• In Zaporizhzhia Oblast, the Russian forces launched 99 attacks on 20 villages and destroyed 15 civil infrastructure objects.
• A man was killed, and a woman was injured in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Civilian infrastructure in the Marhanets community and Nikopol was damaged;
• In Kherson Oblast, two people died and 25 were injured over the past day.

Occupied territories

Putin ordered the “chemical defense” troops to enter Kherson Oblast. Officially, this action aims to address the consequences of the “disruption” at the Kakhovka HPP. However, the Atesh military partisan movement has issued a statement stating that chemical troops are not typically involved in such activities. The statement suggests that the real motive behind deploying chemical troops could be to provoke incidents at the Crimean Titan plant. Atesh warns that Russia may potentially cause another man-made disaster in order to defend the Crimean Peninsula.

The occupying Russian authorities have reportedly taken nearly 300 children from the Berdyansk district in Zaporizhzhya Oblast and transferred them to Chuvashia in the Russian Federation. Russian media sources claim that 48 children have already been relocated, and the remaining children are expected to be moved in subsequent waves, according to Ivan Fedorov, the legally elected mayor of Melitopol. Mayor Fedorov said the [Russian] invaders are taking the children “1,600 km away from home” as a means of holding them hostage.

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Operational situation

General conclusion: 

• Ukrainian Defense forces continued advancing in three directions in Zaporizhzhia Oblast;
• In response to the advance of the Ukrainian Defense Forces in the Zaporizhzhia direction, the Russian military command limited itself to the consolidation of the battle formations of the 71st motorized rifle regiment (42nd motorized rifle division) with units of the 127th motorized rifle division and the 60th separate motorized rifle brigade, which retreated further south to the Staromayorske-Urozhaine line after a series of unsuccessful counterattacks on Makarivka and Storozheve.
• The units of the enemy 37th separate motorized rifle brigade, which have taken up defensive positions north of the Kermenchyk village, with their front facing north, do not have a securely covered western flank.
• The Russian military command is making efforts to maintain its positions in the area of Staromlynivka, which serves as the last defensive node covering the access to the main defensive line in the Velykonovoselske direction.
• The enemy’s most significant threat on the Zaporizhzhia direction lies in their extensive utilization of reconnaissance unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) like “Orlan” and “Zala,” in combination with cluster munitions such as “Lancet” and attack helicopters Ka-52 (occasionally supplemented by Mi-28). These systems are deployed with the objective of locating the Defense Forces’ artillery positions, air defense systems, and electronic warfare assets, with the intention to neutralize them through subsequent attacks.
• Ukrainian Defense forces lack EW capabilities to counter UAVs;
• The Defence Forces’ artillery is operating in direct fire support mode. MLRS M270 and HIMARS carry out the task of long-range fire engagement. The lack of effective military air defense limits the effectiveness of artillery application.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

• 36 combat clashes took place on different fronts.
• In the Lyman direction, Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive actions in the area of Stelmakhivka, Vyimka and Vesele. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 5 Russian attacks in Luhansk Oblast.
• In the Bakhmut direction, Russian units made a limited advance near Kurdyumivka, unsuccessfully advanced near Rozdolivka, Orikhovo-Vasylivka, and Stupochky, and attacked near Berkhivka and Yahidne. The Russian military command is transferring part of its most combat-ready units to the Bakhmut direction.
• Ukrainian Defense Forces have taken positions on dominant heights and in forested areas, displacing Russian forces from positions near Bakhmut. Ukrainian Defense Forces advanced west of Yahidne, pressing on the flanks of Bakhmut and launching attacks near Klishchiivka, Kurdyumivka, and Ozaryanivka.
• In the Avdiivka direction, Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive actions in Stepove and Avdiivka areas but achieved limited success near Novoselivka.
• In the Maryinka direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled all Russian attacks in the Maryinka and Krasnohorivka areas and made limited progress near Nevelske.
• Russian forces repelled 5 Defense Forces’ attacks near Stepove, Pervomaiske, and Staromykhailivka. Units of the 20th motorized rifle division of the 8th Army captured new positions north of Novomykhailivka.
• In the Shakhtarsk direction, Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked in the direction of Novomykhailivka and Vodyane of Donetsk Oblast.
• Ukrainian Defense Forces advanced up to 1 km near Vuhledar.
• In the Zaporizhzhia direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces successfully advanced along the Levadne – Staromayorske, Novodanylivka – Robotyne line, captured new positions near Dorozhnyanka; achieved minor successes near Robotyne and southeast of Velyka Novosilka. Combat engagements continues. Units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces entrenched themselves in Lobkove and advanced to the western outskirts of Pyatykhatky. Passages through minefields to Novodanylivka and partly to Robotyne have been cleared. The battle for Novopokrovka continues.
• Russian forces repelled attacks to the southwest, south, and southeast of Velyka Novosilka. Units of the enemy 429th motorized rifle regiment (19th Motorized Rifle Division of the 58th Army of the Southern Military District) repelled an assault of the Defense Forces to the southwest of Orikhiv. The 114th motorized rifle regiment (127th Motorized Rifle Division) engaged in combat with the advanced units of the Defense Forces in the Novozlatopol area.
• Russian troops are returning to previously flooded positions on the left bank of Kherson Oblast and intensifying shelling in this area.

Change in enemy disposition: 

• The 88th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 2nd army corps operates in the Siversk direction south of Kreminna.
• The 132nd separate motorized rifle brigade of the 1st army corps operates near New York.
• The 40th separate marines brigade of the Pacific Fleet took up a defensive position in Novomayorske.
• Units of the 36th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 29th Army were deployed at the Yevhenivka-Petrivske frontier.
• Units of the 36th separate motorized rifle brigade and 336th separate marines brigade of the Baltic Fleet are deployed in the second echelon of the operational formation of the 58th and 5th armies on the Chkalove-Shevchenkove section.

Possible operation situation developments: 

• The Defense Forces will continue their offensive in the directions of Polohy-Berdyansk, Velyka Novosilka-Berdyansk, Orikhiv-Melitopol, and partially towards Tokmak. 
• There will be no deep breakthroughs by the Ukrainian Defense Forces in the coming week;
• The command of the Defense Forces is determined to expand the frontline as much as possible and intensify combat operations in multiple sectors of the front. This strategy aims to disperse the enemy’s reserves ahead of the main attack(s).
• The enemy’s 42nd and 127th motorized rifle divisions, and the 60th separate motorized rifle brigade, will not be able to withstand the attack of the Ukrainian Defense Forces if they retreat to the main defensive line of the Russian grouping in the Berdyansk direction;

·       Expanding the frontline of the Defense Forces’ offensive will create difficulties for the Russian military command in maintaining the necessary troop concentrations and a shortage of operational reserves.

·       Russian military command is shifting to a strategy of buying time, hoping to conduct another mobilization and significantly enhance their operational capabilities.

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area: 

• As of June 17, there were 5 Russian ships at sea. They patrolled the areas near Crimea and along the coast of the Taman Peninsula. There are two Kalibr missile carriers among them: “Admiral Makarov” and “Admiral Essen” frigates. They have up to 16 missiles on board. 
• Russian aviation continues to fly from the Crimean airfields of Belbek, Saky, Dzhankoy and Hvardiyske over the sea. Seven fighter aircraft from Belbek and Saki Air Force Bases were involved in monitoring the surface and air conditions in the northwestern part of the Black Sea, namely three Su-27/30 (BELBEK), two Su-24MR and two Mig-29 UK (SAKI).  
• Air surveillance and control of operational-tactical aviation over the Azov Sea waters were carried out by the A-50U Airborne Early Warning and Control aircraft, Il-22 relay aircraft, and Il-22PP jamming aircraft.
• There are 4 Su-25 aircraft and over 30 helicopters (including 3 Ka-52, 2 Mi-24, 10 Mi-28, 17 Mi-8) on the territory of Dzhankoy airfield (Crimea). Aviation is protected by 2 96K6 “Pantsir” air defense complexes.
• The [Russian] occupying forces continue to build defense structures in the north and west of Crimea. Currently, four lines of fortifications have been built. The head of the occupation authorities in Crimea, Aksyonov, announced the creation of a “people’s militia” on the peninsula. In the ARMYANSK-YANI KAPU area (north of Crimea), over 2 units of military equipment are deployed, which provide defense capabilities for the occupying forces on the peninsula. This includes 3 air defense systems (including two S-300V and one 96K6 “Pantsir”), 15 artillery systems (including 10 2A65 “Msta-B” howitzers, 2 9K58 “Smerch” MLRS), 176 military vehicles, and 7 engineering vehicles.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 17.06.23 

Personnel – almost 219,170 people (+670);

Tanks 3,977 (+12);

Armored combat vehicles – 7,706 (+23);

Artillery systems – 3,834 (+22);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 609 (+3);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 364 (0);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 6,557 (+38);

Aircraft – 314 (0);

Helicopters – 302 (+1);

UAV operational and tactical level – 3,364 (+7);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,211 (+12);

Boats/ships – 18 (0).

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International diplomatic aspect

The defense ministers of Ukraine, Czechia, and Slovakia signed a cooperation agreement on purchasing and maintaining Swedish-made CV90 IFVs. Troels Lund Poulsen, Denmark’s Acting Defense Minister, expressed readiness to donate F-16s to Ukraine, with Ukrainian pilots expected to begin training at the Skrydstrup base in Jutland soon. 

The U.S. will provide $205 million in additional humanitarian assistance to Ukraine. Since February 2022, the U.S. has provided more than $2.1 billion in humanitarian assistance for the people of Ukraine, both inside the country and in the region.

The Estonian Parliament passed a resolution declaring the establishment of a special international tribunal under the auspices of the U.N. General Assembly a foreign policy priority. “Those responsible for the war of aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine will have to be brought to justice to break the cycle of aggression of the Russian Federation which has been seen many times in history,” the statement reads. The statement points out that “without a trial of the perpetrators of the crime aggression it will not be possible to achieve a just and lasting peace both in Ukraine and in the whole Europe.”

Furthermore, the Estonian Parliament also expressed its support for Ukraine’s membership in NATO. The Parliament deems it crucial to seize the opportunity at the NATO Vilnius Summit to outline the necessary steps for Ukraine’s rapid integration into the Alliance and extend an invitation to join. The Parliament believes it will “reinforce the sovereignty and territorial integrity of states in Europe and achieve lasting peace,” undermine “politics of spheres of influence in Europe,” which “continues to threaten the security of the continent.”

Vladimir Putin announced the delivery of the first nuclear charges to Belarus, and “assured” that it was only the initial part and that more work would be completed by the end of the summer or year. “We have no reason to adjust our own nuclear posture” and “don’t see any indications that Russia is preparing to use a nuclear weapon,” Antony Blinken said. “As for Belarus itself, this is just another example of [so-called President] Lukashenko making irresponsible, provocative choices to cede control of Belarus’s sovereignty against the will of the Belarusian people,” the U.S. Secretary of State said.

Russia, relevant news

According to a Levada Centre poll, a majority of Russians (86%) believe Russia shouldn’t employ nuclear weapons in Ukraine under any circumstances. Ten percent believe it should.

Two-thirds of Russians believe that Russia’s rulers are not ready to employ nuclear weapons in Ukraine, while a third (29%) think they may. More than half (56%) of Russians think there’s no justification for nuclear use, while a third (29%) think it could be justified.

Though it is highly unlikely that Vladimir Putin could be stopped by his subjects, their overall rejection of a nuclear strike could be exploited. The poll indicates a reluctance to support a unilateral nuclear strike, which implies an expectation of impunity. However, the willingness to engage in nuclear aggression might diminish significantly if faced with unavoidable symmetrical consequences. It is worth noting that overall support for the war differs when it directly affects Russian territories, as evidenced by the operations of the Russian freedom fighters within proper Russia. The realization that a retaliatory strike could impact anyone within Russia could have an even greater deterrent effect. Public protests against the possibility of a nuclear war are unlikely in Russia, considering the historical hesitancy to fight for social and political rights or to protest against invasions and mass mobilizations. Nevertheless, the fear of potential nuclear devastation could influence the Kremlin’s decision-making, as it closely monitors the sentiments and attitudes of the Russian “deep people.”

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