Russia’s war on Ukraine. Daily Snapshot. 18.06.2023

Snapshot of the day:

General, humanitarian:

• As of June 18, 2023, cholera vibrio has not been detected in the water in Mykolaiv Oblast. However, there is the presence of cholera-like vibrio, which serves as a marker for the potential presence of cholera vibrio.
• Water levels following the Kakhovka dam destruction continue to recede in Mykolayiv and Kherson Oblasts. In the areas under Ukraine’s control, 17 people died. 13 of them drowned, another 4 were killed by Russian shelling during evacuation;
• There are currently 240 known cases where social services in European countries have taken children from families of Ukrainian refugees. Ukrainian Ombudsman is working to resolve them;
• The Russian military attacked 9 Ukrainian Oblasts over the past day;
• President Zelensky said that not a single Patriot air defense complex had been destroyed in Ukraine.

Military: 

• Russian forces resumed activity in the Kupyansk direction after a week’s break;
• The intensity of hostilities in the Bakhmut direction decreased;
• The Russian military command started intensifying efforts in the Tokmak direction;
• Advanced units of the Ukraine’s “Tavria” troop grouping became active on the Novodanylivka – Robotyne and Mala Tokmachka – Verbove directions;
• The Russian military has not used most of its operational reserves.

Grain agreement: 

• The press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation, Peskov, said on June 17 that the “grain agreement” has no chance, as Moscow sees no reason to extend it.

International:

• The U.K. will provide Ukraine with £16 million for strengthening cyber defense. The E.U. industry chief assured of the Union’s intentions to “step up our efforts to deliver arms and ammunition.”
• “For peace to be sustainable, it must be just. Peace cannot mean freezing the conflict and accepting a deal dictated by Russia,” NATO Secretary-General said.
• The team of African leaders was happy to visit Russia. The President of South Africa laid out his proposals, talking about the necessity of de-escalation from both sides and omitting “territorial integrity” while reiterating adherence to the sovereignty of all countries envisaged by the U.N. Charter. 
• The U.S. will not make it easier for Ukraine to join NATO. The forthcoming NATO summit might bring some new assistance packages, plans short of an invitation, Membership Action Plan, or real security guarantees. It might turn out to be a disappointment for Ukraine and a sign of hope that Putin’s long-haul strategy has some chance of paying off in the future.

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Humanitarian 

The Ukrainian Ombudsman’s Office has information on 240 cases when social services in European countries take children from families of Ukrainian refugees. The situations are usually a consequence of different legislation, e.g. a person over 65 y.o. is not supposed to be a guardian in some countries or a child’s grandmother is not considered a close relative. The Ombudsman’s office works with international organizations and relevant governments to resolve the issue. 

Out of 727 Ukrainian children’s orphanage homes, 214 are under evacuation, 168 of them are abroad. This is approximately 7,125 children, Iryna Suslova, representative of the Ombudsman for the Rights of Children, Family, Youth and Sports, said.

Consequences of the Kakhovka dam destruction

As of the evening of June 18, in the territories controlled by Ukraine, 17 people died due to the destruction of the Kakhovka dam. 13 of them drowned, another 4 were killed by shelling during evacuation. 31 people remain unaccounted for. 876 houses remain flooded. A total of 3,614 people have been evacuated from dangerous areas, including 474 children and 80 people with reduced mobility.

In Kryvyi Rih, water reserves will last for 1.5 months if severely rationed. For a further uninterrupted water supply to the city residents, it is necessary to lay 100 km of pipes and install transformer pumps, Oleksandr Vilkul, the head of Kryvyi Rih military administration, reports. The construction of the “Inhulets – Pivdenne” canal has already begun. The water has to be transported for more than 30 kilometers.

In Zaporizhzhia, the water level has dropped by 4 meters in the lower pool, said Yuriy Malashko, the head of Zaporizhzhia OMA. According to him, there are no problems with drinking water in the Oblast, and they are not expected.

In Kherson Oblast, 14,000 consumers remain without electricity, most of them in the Korabel district of Kherson. According to Oleksandr Prokudin, head of Kherson OMA, about 80 percent of the electrical equipment survived. Therefore, if the weather conditions are favorable, the restoration will continue.

According to the Mykolaiv Regional Center for Disease Control and Prevention of the Health Ministry, following the examination of surface reservoirs in the formerly inundated parts of Mykolaiv Oblast, as of June 18, 2023, cholera vibrio was not found in the water, but there is cholera-like vibrio (which is a marker of the possible presence of cholera vibrio).

According to Ivan Kukhta, the head of the Sniguriv military administration in Mykolaiv Oblast, as of 08:00 on June 18, the water level in the Inhulets River has decreased by nearly 5 meters. Only about a meter remains to reach the level before the Kakhovka HPP explosion. The water has receded from 373 out of the 375 previously flooded houses.

Russian attacks

Over the past day, the Russian army attacked 9 Ukrainian oblasts with drones, artillery, and aviation. Some of the consequences include:

• Northern Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts bordering the Russian Federation were shelled throughout the day and at night. Chernihiv Oblast was attacked 6 times and Sumy Oblast 33 times. No victims were reported. There is destroyed civilian infrastructure. Two civilians, a father and a son, were killed by Russian artillery shelling in the border town of Bilopillia, Sumy Oblast on June 18.
• Russian forces attacked 20 towns and villages in Zaporizhzhia Oblast; one civilian was wounded and hospitalized. Damages to civilian infrastructure are reported. 
• Dnipropetrovsk Oblast was attacked with two UAVs and heavy artillery. 
• In Donetsk Oblast, 9 towns and villages were targeted, two people died and three were injured.
• In Kherson Oblast, the invaders carried out 68 shellings (fired 467 shells) during the day, targeting the areas of 25 towns and villages. 4 shellings (29 shells) were fired in Kherson. One person died and 4 were injured.

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Operational situation

General conclusion: 

• Russian forces resumed activity in the Kupyansk direction after a week’s break;
• The intensity of hostilities in the Bakhmut direction decreased;
• The Russian military command started intensifying efforts in the Tokmak direction;
• The forward units of the “Tavria” grouping of Defense Forces identified a weak spot in the enemy’s defense in the area near Verbove village (between the battalion defense sectors of the 291st and the 7th motorized rifle regiments, which is defended by the 417th reconnaissance battalion).
• Advanced units of the “Tavria” grouping have intensified their activities on the Novodanylivka – Robotyne and Mala Tokmachka – Verbove directions;
• Attacks by the “Tavria” troop grouping from the Hrozove – Dolinka line towards Vasylivka have forced the command of the enemy’s 19th motorized rifle division to urgently deploy up to two battalions from the 429th motorized rifle regiment in this direction;
• In the Vasylivka direction, the enemy has turned Nova Krynytsia and Lisne villages into defensive strongholds. Their main defensive line in this area starts near Shyroke village, and several strongpoints are established near Hladke. Probably, these positions will be occupied jointly by the battalions of the 429th motorized rifle regiment (19th motorized rifle division), units of the 125th motorized rifle regiment (1st Army Corps) and the 4th military base, which are currently deployed along the Hrozove – Dolinka line.
• The Russian military has not used most of its operational reserves.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

• 26 combat clashes took place on different fronts.
• In the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked in the direction of Novoselivske in Luhansk Oblast and Berestove in Kharkiv Oblast.
• In the Lyman direction, Russian forces attacked in the direction of Bilohorivka, Rozdolivka, Vesele, and Vyimka but had no success. Russian forces advanced slightly near Terny and attacked Spirne, repulsed Ukrainian Defence Forces attacks near Verkhnyokamianka and Yakovlivka.
• Ukrainian Defense forces repelled Russian attacks near Berestove and Novoselivske, and attacked in the Serebryansk forest area.
• In the Bakhmut direction, Russian troops repelled attacks of the Ukrainian Defense Forces in Berkhivka and Yahidne areas, and made a slight advance north of Mayorsk. Russian attacks near Orikhovo-Vasylivka were unsuccessful.
• In the Avdiivka direction, Russian forces carried out unsuccessful offensive actions in the area of Stepove, Avdiivka and Maryinka.
• Ukrainian defense forces achieved success near Nevelske and Vodyane.
• Russian troops made progress north of Maryinka, attacked southeast of Krasnohorivka and are trying to gain a foothold in the Pobieda area.
• In the Shakhtarsk direction, Russian forces carried out offensive actions in the direction of Novomykhailivka and Vodyane, Donetsk Oblast, but failed.
• In the Zaporizhzhia direction, the Russian military repelled the Ukrainian Defense Forces’ attacks to the southwest and southeast of Velyka Novosilka. Units of the 127th motorized rifle division of the 5th Army regained almost all lost positions in the Vremivka area.
• Ukrainian Defense Forces advanced between Urozhaine and Novodonetske, launching attacks near Pyatykhatky and Novopokrovka. They captured a bridgehead on the first line of Russian defense south of Mala Tokmachka. The forward units of the “Tavria” reached a distance of 5 km to the enemy’s main defensive line in the area of Verbove. The 70th motorized rifle regiment (42nd motorized rifle division) defending Verbove village is gradually withdrawing further south. 

Change in enemy disposition: 

• Two battalions of the 291st motorized rifle regiment (42nd motorized rifle division of the 58th Army) retreated to the fortification line north and west of Robotyne. The Chechen detachments of “Akhmat-Vostok (East)” and “Akhmat-Yug (South)” are deployed behind their battle formations. “Akhmat-Yug (South)” is deployed further south.
• The battalion of the 503rd motorized rifle regiment (19th motorized rifle division of the 58th Army) has taken up a prepared defensive line from Nesteryanka to Kopany. The 11th BARS detachment is deployed immediately behind [the battalion] battle formations on the southwestern outskirts of Kopany.
• Between the 291st and 70th motorized rifle regiments near Verbove village, the 417th reconnaissance and sabotage battalion, reinforced by the 3rd BARS detachment, is operating.
• In the area of Novoprokopivka village, units of the 1430th motorized rifle regiment of the enemy territorial troops have been observed, deploying on the main defensive line.
• Units of the 38th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 35th Army are deployed in defensive positions northwest of Polohy.

Possible operation situation developments: 

• The Defense Forces will continue their offensive in the directions of Polohy-Berdyansk, Velyka Novosilka-Berdyansk, Orikhiv-Melitopol, and partially towards Tokmak. 
• There will be no deep breakthroughs by the Ukrainian Defense Forces in the coming week;
• The command of the Defense Forces is determined to expand the frontline as much as possible and intensify combat operations in multiple sectors of the front. This strategy aims to disperse the enemy’s reserves ahead of the main attack(s).
• Expanding the frontline of the Defense Forces’ offensive will create difficulties for the Russian military command in maintaining the necessary troop concentrations and a shortage of operational reserves.
• Russian military command is shifting to a strategy of buying time, hoping to conduct another mobilization and significantly enhance their operational capabilities.

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area: 

• As of June 18, there were 9 Russian ships at sea. They patrol the areas near the Kerch Strait Bridge and along the coast of the Taman Peninsula. One Kalibr missile carrier was among them: “Admiral Essen” frigate. It has up to 8 missiles on board. 
• The following ships are based in the Port of Feodosiya (Crimea) in the water area of the base point of the 58th group of vessels supporting the auxiliary fleet of the Russian Federation: 1 large landing ship (pr. 1171), 2 minesweepers (1 – pr. 12700, 1 – pr. 266M), 1 boat- torpedo retriever (pr. 1388).
• Russian aviation continues to fly from the Crimean airfields of Belbek, Saky, Dzhankoy and Hvardiyske over the sea. Eight fighter aircraft from Belbek and Saki Air Force Bases were involved in monitoring the surface and air conditions in the northwestern part of the Black Sea, namely four Su-27/30 (BELBEK), two Su-24MR and two Mig-29 UK (SAKI). 
• Air surveillance and operational-tactical aviation control over the Azov Sea waters were carried out by the A-50U Airborne Early Warning and Control aircraft.
• Romanian experts have determined that the flood resulting from the Nova Kakhovka dam explosion on the Dnipro River will reach the Romanian coast of the Black Sea in approximately 8-10 days. Although pollution levels in the sea are rising, Romanian authorities assure that there is no need for concern. The Romanian National Institute of Public Health has announced that daily water quality monitoring will be conducted in the region’s counties for a two-week period starting from June 15, 2023, with the results to be publicly disclosed later.

The “Grain Initiative”

• On June 17, the press secretary of the Russian Federation’s President, Peskov, stated that the “grain agreement” has no chance of being extended as Moscow sees no reason to continue. “And part of this deal was implemented but the second part, which concerned the Russian Federation, was never implemented. Therefore, if we state what we have now, then, of course, there are no prospects, there are no grounds for its extension. Because so far what was promised to us has not been done,” he said.
• It is worth noting that this week Russian President Putin expressed that Western countries have allegedly deceived Russia by not meeting its demands under the “grain agreement,” and Moscow is considering withdrawing from the agreement. The current agreement, the “Grain Initiative,” is set to expire on July 16.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 18.06.23 

Personnel – almost 219,820 people (+650);

Tanks – 3,984 (+7);

Armored combat vehicles – 7,729 (+23);

Artillery systems – 3,847 (+13);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 610 (+1);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 364 (0);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 6,571 (+14);

Aircraft – 314 (0);

Helicopters – 304 (+2);

UAV operational and tactical level – 3,371 (+7);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,211 (0);

Boats/ships – 18 (0).

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Ukraine, general news

President Zelensky stated that not a single Patriot air defense complex had been destroyed in Ukraine. On June 16, Russian President Putin claimed the Russian army had destroyed 5 Patriot complexes in Ukraine.

International 

The U.K. will provide Ukraine with £16 million in funding, which may draw an additional £9 million contribution from international allies, to strengthen the country’s cybergenic and protection of the critical national infrastructure from crippling Russian attacks. The E.U. industry chief assured of the Union’s intentions to “step up our efforts to deliver arms and ammunition.” “We are preparing for the war to last several more months, or even longer,” Thierry Breton added.

“We all want this war to end. But for peace to be sustainable, it must be just. Peace cannot mean freezing the conflict and accepting a deal dictated by Russia,” NATO Secretary-General told the Welt am Sonntag. “The more occupied territory Ukraine can liberate, the better cards it has at the negotiating table to achieve a just and lasting peace,” Jens Stoltenberg commented on the African peace initiative.

The team of African leaders met the Russian President and shared its peace vision with the one who started the unprovoked and unjustified war. All of them expressed their deep gratitude to Vladimir Putin for his valuable time and warm welcome, while the Chairman of the African Union, President of the Comoros Azali Assoumani called Vladimir Putin a “great friend of Africa.” 

“Wars have always had terrible consequences, and the longer they go on, the deeper and more unprecedented their consequences. We will not teach you anything new on this topic because your country has experienced many painful events in the past,” Azali Assoumani said as if it was Ukraine who unleashed a brutal war against Russia. He explained the team’s mission as to “show you [Putin] our friendship, which has always linked Russia and Africa” and convey the message that “peace between your two brotherly peoples [a Soviet propaganda term used to show “closeness” of countries occupied by the Bolsheviks] remains the main element for the stability of your region and the whole world.” President of Senegal Macky Sall expressed his belief that “Russia, which is the founder of the U.N., as well as a permanent member of the Security Council, also abides by this Charter.”

The President of South Africa laid out his proposals, saying they shouldn’t compete with other peace initiatives. He expressed his belief that the war should be resolved by diplomatic means, which requires de-escalation from both sides. Cyril Ramaphosa did not mention that it is Russia that has been escalating ever since its illegal invasion of Ukraine. Neither he mentioned territorial integrity while reiterating adherence to the sovereignty of all countries envisaged by the U.N. Charter. The rest of the proposals are not that different from what he pronounced in Kyiv. 

In return, the African leaders were lectured about Putin’s version of the conflict, from the so-called coup d’état to Russia’s “defensive” war against Ukraine in “accordance” with Article 51 of the U.N. Charter [right for self-defense], which Putin believes,” is “impeccable from the point of view of international law and the Charter.” He blamed the food crisis not on his invasion and the Black Sea blockade but the West which “began to engage in unreasonable, economically unjustified emissions in order to solve their problems associated with the coronavirus epidemic.” 

He insisted that Russia has never “refused” talks and showed an alleged draft of a “Treaty on Permanent Neutrality and Security Guarantees of Ukraine,” claiming that Ukraine violated the agreement by not signing it after Russia “voluntarily,” in a “goodwill gesture” withdrew from around Kyiv. Leaving aside actual Russian forces’ defeat, the draft Putin showed had been dated after the Russian retreat. Vladimir Putin didn’t mention the horror and shock of Ukrainians and the civilized world after war crimes and crimes against humanity were uncovered in the outskirts of Kyiv. While in Ukraine, the African leaders visited Bucha, so they had an opportunity to understand what motivates Ukrainians to fight. 

Vladimir Putin claimed that there was nothing wrong in deporting Ukrainian children from the Russia-occupied territories. 

Besides a scandal with a dozen containers of South African security service weapons stuck in Poland, the visit was portrayed as a public relations success for both the African leaders and Putin. Russians may employ elements of the peace plan that suits them perfectly to show their willingness to employ “diplomacy.” Putin enjoyed the company of grateful foreign visitors who decorated his solitude.

The United States is not planning to make it easier for Ukraine to join NATO. “They have to meet the same standards. So, I’m not going to make it easier. I think they’ve done everything relating to demonstrating the ability to coordinate militarily, but there’s a whole issue of: Is their system secure? Is it non-corrupt? Does it meet all the standards every- — every other nation in NATO does,” Joe Biden stated. Earlier reports suggested the possibility of bypassing the formal preparatory process for Ukraine, but the upcoming NATO summit is expected to offer assistance packages and plans without extending a formal invitation, Membership Action Plan, or concrete security guarantees. It might turn out to be a disappointment for Ukraine and a sign of hope that Putin’s long-haul strategy has some chance of paying off in the future.

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