Russia’s war on Ukraine. Daily Snapshot. 19.06.2023

Snapshot of the day:

General, humanitarian:

• Russia blocks the U.N. access to areas affected by the Kakhovka dam destruction by Russia. The death toll in the Russia-occupied Oleshky on the left bank of the Kherson Oblast may reach more than 500 Ukrainians. A third of water samples taken in reservoirs of the Kherson, Odesa, and Mykolaiv regions failed to meet hygienic standards due to the dam’s destruction.
• Hungary is keeping 11 Ukrainian prisoners of war in isolation, according to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson, Oleg Nikolenko.
• Up to 49% of Ukraine’s expenditures, or some $15 billion, were spent for defense and security purposes in the first five months of the year.
• During the night, Russia attacked Odesa Oblast with Kalibr cruise missiles. All four missiles were destroyed over the sea.
• Over the past day, Russian aggressors have carried out attacks on nine regions of Ukraine; there are killed and injured civilians.

Military: 

• The Defense Forces have advanced more than one kilometer north of Avdiivka; they continue to encircle Bakhmut from the south and east, and Selydove from the east.
• The Ukrainian “Tavria” grouping repelled Russian counterattacks near Staromlynivka from the Tokmak direction and Zeleny Hay from the Volnovakha direction; exhausted the counterattacking forces’ potential, and began consolidation on the achieved positions. The “Tavria” grouping is creating conditions for the rapid encirclement of the Russian garrison in Polohy.
• The Defense Forces have not yet deployed the majority of available forces into operation.
• The slowdown in the advancement of the Defense Force units indicates a review of their tactics.

International:

• China reassured the U.S. that it is not and will not provide lethal assistance to Russia for use in Ukraine.
• Up to 81% of foreign components found in Russian missiles originate in the U.S., while Russia is capable of producing up to 67 missiles a month.
• The U.K. passed legislation that enables sanctions on Russia to be maintained until Moscow pays compensation to Ukraine and allows sanctioned individuals to donate frozen funds to Ukrainian reconstruction.
• The Russian intelligence service appears to be setting the stage for a false flag operation with a “dirty bomb,” possibly encouraged by the lack of a strong international reaction to the destruction of the Kakhovka dam. Meanwhile, the Russian military pushes a bizarre claim that the U.S. is planning to use UAVs to disperse infected mosquitoes in the air.

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Humanitarian 

The Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson expressed concern over the isolation and lack of access to Ukrainian POWs in Hungary. Ukrainian diplomats’ attempts to establish direct contact with Ukrainian citizens have failed, and the Hungarian Government has been unresponsive to Ukraine’s calls for dialogue and access to the POWs. Ukrainian POWs are being kept physically isolated and restricted in terms of information access, with their contacts with relatives monitored by third parties. Earlier, the Russian Orthodox Church informed about an agreement to transfer eleven Ukrainian POWs to Hungary, neither of which informed the Ukrainian Government of such talks and agreements at all.

Consequences of the Kakhovka dam destruction

“The Government of the Russian Federation has so far declined our request to access the areas under its temporary military control,” Denise Brown, the U.N. humanitarian coordinator for Ukraine, said in a statement. Putin’s spokesperson justified the refusal by saying that Russia can’t provide security to a U.N. mission blaming Ukraine for “constant shelling, provocations, shelling of the civilian objects.” 

Ukraine’s Center of National Resistance estimated the death toll in the Russia-occupied Oleshky on the left bank of Kherson Oblast to be more than 500 people due to Russia’s deliberate actions not to come to the rescue.

The U.K. has commissioned a team of experts to assess the environmental impact resulting from Russia’s destruction of the Kakhovka dam. According to Ukraine’s Ministry of Healthcare, 30% of water samples taken in reservoirs of the Kherson, Odesa, and Mykolaiv regions failed to meet hygienic standards due to the dam’s destruction.

In Kherson Oblast, which was affected by the explosion of the Kakhovka HPP, the water level continues to decrease, and approximately 800 houses remain flooded. The water is receding at a rate of nearly 1 cm per hour, and the current water level is 74 cm.  

According to the Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine, Igor Klymenko, as of the evening of June 19, “3,773 individuals and 284 animals have been evacuated. Unfortunately, 18 people died, 14 from drowning and 4 from gunshot wounds during the evacuation. 31 people are missing. We are searching for each of them.” 

Russian attacks

During the night, Russian forces struck Ukraine with missiles and kamikaze drones. According to the Ukrainian Air Force, the strike was carried out in the southern and eastern directions. The Russian army launched four Kalibr cruise missiles and four Shahed kamikaze drones. The cruise missiles were launched from a submarine in the Black Sea, while the Shahed drones were launched from the eastern coast of the Sea of Azov. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that all eight targets were successfully intercepted and destroyed.

Over the past day, Russian aggressors have carried out attacks on nine regions of Ukraine.

• During the night, the Russian forces shelled Kherson. Due to enemy fire, a gas tank at one of the gas stations caught fire, according to the State Emergency Service (SES). Ten public buses were engulfed in the fire. On June 19, Russian military forces shelled the Beryslav district of Kherson Oblast with artillery, damaging at least five residential houses and an administrative building. Three people were injured.
• Two people were injured in Sumy Oblast due to the Russian attacks. The multi-apartment buildings, private homes and civilian infrastructure were damaged.
• Within a day, Russian forces conducted 105 strikes on 22 towns and villages in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. It has been reported that 14 civilian objects were destroyed, and three people were injured.
• Two people were injured in Kharkiv Oblast due to the Russian attacks. One person was injured after stepping on a “Petal” landmine.
• The Russian invaders carried out 15 shelling attacks in Donetsk Oblast within the past day. Fourteen residential buildings, a car, an outbuilding, and seven railway wagons were damaged. One person was killed, and another person was injured.
• On June 19, the Russian army shelled Nikopol in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast with heavy artillery, injuring a man. As a result of the shelling, two agricultural structures were destroyed, 16 private residential houses and nine agricultural buildings were damaged, as well as a gas pipeline and a power transmission line.

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Operational situation

General conclusion: 

• The Defense Forces have advanced more than one kilometer north of Avdiivka.
• The Defense Forces continue to encircle Bakhmut from the south and east, and Selydove from the east.
• The command of the “Tavria” grouping of troops managed to repel Russian counterattacks in the area of Staromlynivka from the Tokmak direction and Zeleny Hay from the Volnovakha direction, exhaust the potential of the counterattacking forces, and begin consolidation on the achieved positions.
• The command of the “Tavria” grouping is creating conditions for the rapid encirclement of the Russian garrison in Polohy.
• The Defense Forces have not yet deployed the majority of available forces into operation.
• The slowdown in the advancement of the Defense Force units indicates a review of their tactics.
• The Defense Forces continue to simulate the crossing of the Dnipro River with small groups in the area from Kakhovka to Hola Prystan with the aim of exhausting the enemy. Priority is given to detecting and eliminating self-propelled artillery and trailers for towed systems. The enemy has withdrawn towed artillery deeper into the occupied territory.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

• There were 24 combat clashes on various fronts. 
• On the Kupyansk direction, the enemy conducted offensive actions towards Novoselivske in Luhansk Oblast, but without success. 
• On the Lyman direction, the enemy unsuccessfully attacked in the direction of Bilohorivka, Berestove, Novoselivske, and Spirne, to the north of Svatove and the south of Kreminna. 
• The Defense Forces carried out a series of offensive actions near Berestove and Rozdolivka.
• On the Bakhmut direction, the enemy conducted unsuccessful offensive actions towards Orikhovo-Vasylivka and Stupochky; repelled the Defence Forces attacks near Mayorsk and Pivnichne.
• On the Avdiivka direction, the Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked near Avdiivka, Maryinka, Stepove, Vodyane, and Novomykhailivka. They repelled the Defense Forces attacks near Novokalynove, Pervomaiske, Nevelske, Krasnohorivka, and Maryinka.
• On the Shakhtarsk direction, the enemy attacked towards Novomykhailivka and Vuhledar in Donetsk Oblast but did not succeed. The Defense Forces repelled Russian attacks on Vuhledar and Vodyane. 
• On the Zaporizhzhia direction, the forces of Ukraine’s grouping of troops “Tavria” continued their offensive operations. The enemy repelled their attacks near Novodonetske, Rivnopole, Novodarivka, and Urozhaine. The Defense Forces liberated Pyatykhatky and continue their advance to the south of Orikhove, in the area of Robotyne, making some progress on the Robotyne-Pyatykhatky frontline.

Change in enemy disposition: 

• The units of the 24th Separate Special Operations Brigade of the Central Military District are operating on the Svatove-Kreminna frontline. 
• The units of the 85th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Army Corps are operating near Bilohorivka.
• The units of the 60th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 5th Army of the Eastern Military District are operating near Makarivka.
• The units of the 80th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade and the 61st separate marines brigade are operating in Kherson Oblast.

Escalation indicators:

• Russian forces are transferring additional personnel and military equipment from the Nova Kakhovka and Kakhovka areas (east of Kherson Oblast) to the front line in Zaporizhzhia Oblast through Melitopol.

Possible operation situation developments: 

• The Defense Forces will continue their offensive in the directions of Polohy-Berdyansk, Velyka Novosilka-Berdyansk, Orikhiv-Melitopol, and partially towards Tokmak. 
• There will be no deep breakthroughs by the Ukrainian Defense Forces in the coming week;
• The command of the Defense Forces is determined to expand the frontline as much as possible and intensify combat operations in multiple sectors of the front. This strategy aims to disperse the enemy’s reserves ahead of the main attack(s).
• The expansion of the front line due to the offensive of the Defense Forces will pose a challenge for the Russian military command in ensuring the required operational troop densities and a shortage of operational reserves.
• The Russian military command is shifting to a strategy of buying time, hoping to carry out another mobilization and significantly enhance their operational capabilities.
• Utilizing a tactical pause, the command of the “Tavria” operational grouping will establish fire support, air defense, and logistical support for its forces in the liberated territories. It will also prepare for overcoming minefields and other obstacles on selected operational directions.

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area: 

• As of June 19th, there were 3 enemy ships at sea. They patrolled areas near the Crimean Bridge and the coast of the Taman Peninsula. Among them is one missile carrier, a Project 636.3 submarine. This submarine launched a strike at 02:00 on June 19th with 4 Kalibr missiles targeting Odessa. However, all the missiles were intercepted by the city’s air defense systems. The submarine will likely be returned to Sevastopol soon.
• The enemy’s aviation continues to conduct flights over the sea from the Crimean airfields of Belbek, Saky, Dzhankoy, and Hvardiyske. To maintain control over the surface and air situation in the northwestern part of the Black Sea waters, six fighter aircraft were involved: two Su-27/30 (Belbek), two Su-24MR, and two MiG-29 UK (Saky). 
• Air situation control and operational-tactical aviation management over the waters of the Sea of Azov were carried out by the A-50U Airborne Early Warning and Control aircraft.
• There are 18 units of aviation equipment located at the Kirovske airfield (Crimea): 5 Su-30SM aircraft and 13 helicopters (including 9 Mi-8 and 4 Mi-24). Nearly half of the helicopters are without rotor blades.
• At the Saky airfield (Crimea), 36 aircraft have been detected, including 4 MiG-29, 12 Su-30SM, 16 Su-24, and 3 Be-12.
• Turkey’s Bayraktar KIZILELMA unmanned combat aerial vehicle has successfully undergone new tests, specifically verifying the identification system at high altitudes. The Turkish UAV flies at a speed of 630 km/h. The aircraft weighs 8.5 tons and is capable of carrying a payload of up to 1.5 tons. The drone can operate autonomously and engage in air-to-air combat similar to manned fighter aircraft, performing aggressive maneuvers that set it apart from conventional unmanned aerial vehicles.
• It will be equipped with SOM-J cruise missiles with a range of over 250 km for surface combat operations, as well as Roketsan’s MAM series guided munitions for small-scale strike operations. Serial production of the aircraft is planned for next year.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 19.06.23 

Personnel – almost 220,450 people (+630);

Tanks – 3,989 (+5);

Armored combat vehicles – 7,735 (+6);

Artillery systems – 3,865 (+18);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 610 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 370 (+6);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 6,613 (+42);

Aircraft – 314 (0);

Helicopters – 305 (+1);

UAV operational and tactical level – 3,383 (+12);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,211 (0);

Boats/ships – 18 (0).

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Ukraine, general news

“We continue to direct all of citizens’ and business taxes directly to fund the military to ensure our victory,” Ukraine’s PM said. Up to 49% of Ukraine’s expenditures, or some $15 billion, were spent for defense and security purposes in the first five months of the year.

According to the Gradus Research study conducted in June, half of the companies in Ukraine have returned to their regular working mode. The data reveals that 50% of the surveyed enterprises are operating as before (only 22% were doing so in July 2022). Partial resumption of work was reported by 38% of respondents (compared to 51% a year ago). Only 7% have suspended the operations of their businesses (compared to 22% in July 2022).

International 

“We and other countries have received assurances from China that it is not and will not provide lethal assistance to Russia for use in Ukraine. We appreciate that, and we have not seen any evidence that contradicts that. What we do have ongoing concerns about, though, are Chinese firms, companies that may be providing technology that Russia can use to advance its aggression in Ukraine. And we have asked the Chinese Government to be very vigilant about that,” Antony Blinken revealed a part of his discussion with his Chinese counterparts. The Secretary of State also said that the U.S. “would welcome China playing a constructive role along with other nations to work toward a just peace, based on the principles of the United Nations Charter.” 

“We call upon China not to provide material assistance to Russia or Russian proxies in Russia’s illegal war in Ukraine,” the U.K. -Sweden Joint Leaders Statement reads.

Up to 81% of foreign components found in Russian missiles originate in the U.S., according to a LIGA.net report with reference to a document of the Yermak-McFaul Expert Group on Russian Sanctions. The United States is followed by Switzerland (8%), Germany (3.5%), and Japan (3.5%). For instance, Kh-101 cruise missiles contain at least 53 types of components like microcircuits and chips. The modified missile (Kh-102) is capable of being armed with a nuclear warhead. The components are produced by American companies Vicor, Intel Corporation, Texas Instruments, ZILOG, Maxim Integrated, Cypress Semiconductor, and a Swiss company STMicroelectronics. 

The Kalibr cruise missiles reportedly contain 45 types of foreign electronic components, Iskander ballistic missiles – 15 types of foreign parts, and Kinzhal “hypersonic” cruise missiles of at least 48 foreign components. Ukraine’s Military Intelligence estimates Russia’s ability to produce up to 67 missiles a month, including thirty-five Kh-101s, twenty-five Kalibr cruise missiles, as well as Iskander-M and two Kinzhal “hypersonic” ballistic missiles.

“Putin’s Russia must take financial responsibility for the wanton devastation it has wrought on Ukraine,” Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt said in connection with new related legislation. It enables sanctions on Russia to be maintained until Moscow pays compensation to Ukraine, as well as to allow sanctioned individuals to donate frozen funds to Ukrainian reconstruction.

The director of the Foreign Intelligence Service of Russia claimed to have information suggesting that Ukraine may be working on the creation of a dirty nuclear bomb, potentially signaling yet another false flag attack. The Russian intelligence service appears to be setting the stage for such a provocation, possibly encouraged by the lack of a strong international reaction to the destruction of the Kakhovka dam. Meanwhile, Lieutenant-General Igor Kirillov, Chief of the Radiation, Chemical and Biological Defense Forces of the Russian Federation, bizarrely accused the U.S. of having “high technical readiness” to use UAVs to disperse infected mosquitoes in the air. He believes that the American military plans to infect military personnel with diseases like malaria through mosquito bites.

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