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Russia’s war on Ukraine. Daily Snapshot. 20.06.2023

  • 21.06.2023
  • Опубліковано: CDS
  • Категорія: DailyBrief
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Snapshot of the day:

General, humanitarian:

  • Russian forces attacked 11 Ukrainian Oblasts over the past day. Night UAV attacks damaged an infrastructure object in Lviv and power grids in Kyiv and Mykolayiv Oblasts;
  • The flood waters in Kherson and Mykolayiv Oblasts continue to recede, although some flooding still remains; people started returning to their homes;
  • Russian occupation authorities try to conceal the number of flood victims in the occupied territories, the situation in Oleshky and Hola Prystan community is difficult, there is no electricity or drinking water;
  • In a routine inspection IAEA found no undeclared nuclear materials at South Ukrainian NPP.
  • Ukraine’s chief of Military Intelligence warned about additional mining at the ZNPP by the Russian military. He also informed about facts pointing to the Russian military’s involvement in blowing up the Kakhovka dam.

Military:

  • Russian forces concentrate their main efforts on the Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Maryinka directions; intense battles are ongoing;
  • After losing the defense node in Pyatykhatky, the Russian military command is trying to prevent the advance of the advanced Defense Forces units in the direction of Vasylivka and to prevent them from reaching the main defensive line in the Robotyne-Verbove section;
  • The Russian military command sees the task of maintaining the frontier in Hrozove – Dolinka as key.
  • The Ukraine’s “Tavria” troop grouping may try to advance along the T-0812 road in the direction of Luhove, creating a threat of encirclement to the 429th motorized rifle regiment in the area of Verkhnya Krynytsia – Luhove;
  • Using the tactical pause, the command of the “Tavria” troop grouping will adjust fire support, anti-aircraft defense and logistics of its troops in the liberated territories, and prepare to overcome minefields and other obstacles in the chosen directions.

The Grain Initiative:

  • The work of the “grain initiative” has actually stopped – the Russian side openly sabotages ship inspections; the throughput capacity of the corridor is less than 20% of its capacity.

International:

  • Ukraine managed to return three out of eleven Ukrainian POWs who had been released by Russia to Hungary. The Hungarian Government denies involvement in recovery from Russia, but Ukraine’s Military Intelligence has proof that the Government knew about the plan.
  • Norway will provide $23 million in assistance for Ukraine’s nuclear safety and security.
  • Howard Buffet, the son of one of America’s wealthiest men, unleashed his criticism on the insufficient response of the international community to the Kakhovka dam destruction by Russia.
  • Denmark has announced another security assistance package worth $3.2 billion to be delivered in 2023-2028.
  • The Slovakian Parliament has adopted a resolution recognizing the famine in Ukraine in 1932-1933 as genocide.

Humanitarian

Since the beginning of Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine, more than eight million Ukrainians have become refugees, and more than five million have applied for temporary resident status in Western European countries, the Verkhovna Rada Human Rights Commissioner Dmytro Lubinets said.

In total, since the beginning of the full-scale war, the UN recorded 24,862 casualties among the civilian population in Ukraine – 9,083 people died and 15,779 were wounded. OHCHR emphasized that the actual number of victims of the Russian aggression in Ukraine is much higher, as there are delays in receiving information from places of active hostilities. Many reports still need confirmation. There is still not a lot of confirmed information from Mariupol, Lysychansk, Popasna and Sieverodonetsk where many civilians died.

Consequences of the Kakhovka dam destruction

Currently, 4 settlements (818 houses) on the right bank of the Dnipro remain flooded in Kherson Oblast, and 17 settlements remain flooded on the temporarily occupied territory of the left bank. Four villages remain flooded in Mykolayiv Oblast and over 30 towns and villages of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast have no centralized water supply. According to the State Emergency Service (SES), the evacuation of people in Kherson Oblast is completed and people start returning to their homes as the water recedes. SES warns people that a large number of explosive devises has been dislodged by the flood waters.

Currently, the call center of the Commissioner for Persons Missing under Special Circumstances has received 311 calls. About 90% of appeals concern the missing people from the temporarily occupied territories of Kherson Oblast. As of today, it was possible to establish the whereabouts of 202 residents of the Oblast, the Ministry of Reintegration of the Temporarily Occupied Territories of Ukraine reports.

Russian attacks

Over the past day, the Russian army attacked 11 regions of Ukraine using attack drones, aviation, heavy artillery, and mortars. At night, Russian forces attacked Kyiv Oblast with drones in several waves. The air alert lasted more than four hours.

On the morning of June 20, a critical infrastructure object was damaged in Lviv as a result of an enemy drone strike. A fire broke out on the roof of the building. There are no casualties.

As a result of the Russian drone strike on the night of June 20, power grids were damaged in Kyiv and Mykolaiv Oblasts. The power transmission line in the Kyiv Oblast was damaged, leaving almost half a thousand customers without electricity. Networks in the Mykolaiv Oblast were also damaged due to night shelling. 2 settlements have been cut off,” the Ministry of Energy reports.

On June 20, Russian forces launched an artillery attack on rescue workers in Kherson while they were cleaning mud from the flooding. One person died and 8 people were injured, the head of the Presidential Office Andriy Yermak said. Three rescuers are hospitalized in a severe condition.

Occupied territories

Ukraine’s chief of Military Intelligence said that the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant “was additionally mined during that time… namely, the cooling pond was mined”. Kyrylo Budanov also said that the communication intercept he possesses proves that there had been an order to the unit dislocated at the Kakhovka dam to pack their stuff and urgently retreat just half an hour before the dam was destroyed. Meanwhile, a special services unit arrived at the dam, and after a while, the explosion occurred. A car loaded with explosives spotted by OSINT researchers at the dam belonged to that unit.

In Oleshky, Kherson Oblast, there is a stench due to flooding – the sewage system is not working, and there is also no drinking water and electricity, the occupation authorities are trying to hide the number of victims and continue to remove bodies without establishing the cause of death, the head of the Kherson Regional Military Administration Oleksandr Prokudin said. He noted that only 11 residents of the city have been officially identified and the cause of death determined. “This number is greatly underestimated because Russia is trying to hide the fact of multiple deaths. A quarantine was introduced: the bodies of the dead are taken away, and doctors are not allowed to examine them to establish the fact and cause of death,” said Prokudin. According to him, the situation in the occupied Hola Prystan community is also very difficult. “Many streets are still flooded; people cannot reach their homes. There is also no electricity and water,” Prokudin noted.

______________________________________________________________________________

Operational situation

General conclusion:

  • Russian forces concentrate their main efforts on the Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Maryinka directions, heavy battles are ongoing;
  • Russian troops resumed active offensive actions at the Kupyansk-Lyman frontier, trying to regain the lost initiative;
  • After losing the defense node in Pyatykhatky, the Russian military command is trying to prevent the advance of the advanced Defense Forces units in the direction of Vasylivka and to prevent them from reaching the main defensive line in the Robotyne-Verbove section;
  • The Russian military command sees the task of maintaining the frontier in Hrozove – Dolinka as key. It drew the bulk of its tactical reserves there and uses them in the format of reinforced battalions;
  • In the Tokmak direction, the defense is conducted by military units of the 19th and 42nd motorized rifle divisions of the 58th Army, reinforced by BARS detachments, “volunteer” battalions, and territorial troops formations as a tactical reserve making the defense unstable to prolonged fire exposure from the Ukrainian Defense Forces;
  • The Russian military command tries to preserve at least part of its operational reserves.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

  • 24 combat clashes took place on different fronts.
  • In the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces advanced to the northern part of Vilshany.
  • On the Lyman direction, Russian forces advanced in the directions of Novoselivske, Yampolivka, Torske, Hryhorivka, Spirne, and west of Dibrova of Donetsk Oblast but failed. Offensive operations were conducted near Kreminna by military units of the 76th air assault division.
  • In the Bakhmut direction, the Russian military carried out unsuccessful offensive actions in the direction of Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Donetsk Oblast.
  • Ukrainian Defense forces advanced near Krasnopolivka, attacked near Berkhivka, Yahidne, Klishchiivka, Kurdyumivka, and Ozaryanivka.
  • In the Avdiivka direction, Russian forces unsuccessfully advanced in the Avdiivka area, their attacks were repulsed in the Krasnohorivka, Maryinka, Novomykhailivka, and Pobieda areas. Russian troops also attacked near Vodyane and Stepove.
  • Ukrainian troops advanced near Vesele, south-east of Pobieda, and Russian troops – south of Pobieda.
  • On the Shakhtarsk direction, the Russian military carried out offensive actions in the direction of Novomykhailivka, without success.
  • In the Zaporizhzhia direction, the “Tavria” troop grouping advanced in the directions of Novodarivka – Pryiutne, Makarivka – Rivnopole and Novodanylivka – Robotyne. It had partial success, entrenched itself at the achieved boundaries, and liberated Pyatykhatky. Fighting continues near Novodanylivka and Robotyne.
  • The Russian military concentrated its main efforts on defense and preventing the advance of Ukrainian troops, used reserves, and tried to recapture the lost position. Units of the 40th separate marines brigade of the Pacific Fleet repulsed a Ukrainian counterattack near Novodonetske, units of the 1st separate motorized rifle brigade of the 1st Army Corps and 37th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 36th Army repulsed Ukrainian forces near Urozhaine. The Russian command is trying to hold the southwestern part of the village of Kamianske and several strongholds between it and the village of Luhove with the battalions of the 429th motorized rifle regiment.

Change in enemy disposition:

  • Units of the 3rd Battalion of the 291st motorized rifle regiment of the 42nd motorized rifle division of the 58th Army of the Southern Military District operate under Orikhiv.
  • The Russian military leadership continues to rely on cadets from Russian military academies to strengthen the security of border regions. The third and fourth-year cadets of the St. Petersburg Mikhailovsky Military Artillery Academy will soon be redeployed to the border regions.

Possible operation situation developments:

  • Ukrainian defense forces will develop an offensive in the direction of Polohy – Berdyansk; Velyka Novosilka – Berdyansk; Orikhiv – Melitopol and part of the forces – to Tokmak;
  • There will be no deep breakthroughs on the part of the Defense Forces in the coming week;
  • The “Tavria” troop grouping may try to advance along the T-0812 road in the direction of Luhove, creating a threat of encirclement to the 429th motorized rifle regiment in the area of Verkhnya Krynytsia – Luhove, if the regiment does not retreat to Vasylivka on time;
  • The Russian military command moves to a strategy of gaining time, hoping to conduct another mobilization and significantly build up its operational capabilities;
  • Using the tactical pause, the command of the “Tavria” troop grouping will adjust fire support, anti-aircraft defense and logistics of its troops in the liberated territories, and prepare to overcome minefields and other obstacles in the chosen directions.

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:

  • As of June 20, there were 4 Russian ships at sea. They patrolled the areas near the Kerch Strait Bridge and along the coast of the Taman Peninsula. There are no Kalibr missile carriers at sea.
  • There are about 40 warships/boats in the waters of the bays and on the Sevastopol raid (Crimea):

o  2 frigates (pr. 1135.6 and 1135);

o  6 large amphibious ships (5 – pr. 775, 1 – pr. 1171);

o  2 submarines (1 – pr. 636, 1 – pr. 877B);

o  2 small rocket ships on an air cushion (pr. 1239);

o  6 anti-submarine corvettes (pr. 1124);

o  5 missile boats (4 – pr. 12411, 1 – pr. 12417);

o  5 anti-sabotage boats (3 – pr. 21980, 2 – pr. IS16MII);

o  1 patrol boat (pr. 03160);

o  3 minesweepers (1 – pr. 266M, 1 – pr. 12660, 1 – pr. 12700);

o  2 medium reconnaissance ships (1 – pr. 861M, 1 – pr. 18280); 1 torpedo boat (pr. 1388);

o  3 amphibious boats (1 – pr. 21820, 2 – pr. 11770);

o  2 border guard ships (pr. 22460).

  • Russian aviation continues to fly from the Crimean airfields of Belbek, Saky, Dzhankoy and Hvardiyske over the sea. Nine fighter aircraft from Belbek and Saki Air Force Bases were involved in monitoring the surface and air conditions in the northwestern part of the Black Sea, namely five Su-27/30 (BELBEK), two Su-24MR and two Mig-29 UK (SAKI).
  • Control of the air situation and management of operational-tactical aviation over the waters of the Sea of Azov was carried out by the A-50U DRLV planes.
  • The Russian mass media (in particular, News.ru) indirectly confirmed the information of the French publication Naval News regarding the increase in the number of combat dolphins in the Black Sea in the Sevastopol area. This is associated with the increased threat to the Black Sea Fleet base due to the counteroffensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. According to the publication, the number of animals increased from 3-4 to 6-7. This way, the combat dolphins can patrol a much larger water area in front of the base than before. Before the full-scale invasion, the mammals were used in Novorossiysk and near the Russian Navy’s Syrian base in Tartus. Naval News stresses that the defense of Sevastopol Bay consists of many components and combat dolphins are an important part of it. According to the publication, two DP-62 “Dam” depth charge bomb systems are located on the approach to the bay. The entrance to the bay is protected by approximately five lines of boom fences and floating pontoons. The space between them is patrolled by dolphins, in case a subversive swimmer manages to slip past the barriers.
  • The Russian program to involve dolphins in the Navy was an extension of the Soviet one launched in 1967. It was initiated by the Commander-in-Chief of the Navy, Admiral Serhii Horshkov. In the USSR, they worked with belugas and bottlenose dolphins. Dolphins were used for several purposes – defense and security of fleet bases, guarding the entrance to Sevastopol Bay, i.e. to neutralize combat swimmers. They also performed various auxiliary functions, in particular, provided assistance to divers in searching and marking found objects. A special secret military unit was located in the Kozacha Bay of Sevastopol where animal training grounds were located.

The “Grain initiative”.

  • The work of the “grain initiative” has actually stopped – the Russian side openly sabotages ship inspections, and the throughput capacity of the corridor is less than 20% of its capacity. This was emphasized by the Deputy Prime Minister for Reconstruction – the Minister of Community Development, Territories and Infrastructure Oleksandr Kubrakov. This leads to significant losses not only on the part of Ukraine: the world has not received at least 20 million tons of agricultural products due to Russian sabotage of the grain agreement.
  • “The opening of Ukrainian seaports for all types of goods is necessary for the Ukrainian economy. This is a fairly simple formula – our economy is export-oriented, and a working economy means the state is able to pay salaries to defenders and has well-provided, equipped defenders, which is the way to victory. Russia perfectly understands the interconnectedness of these things, which is why it attacks peaceful cities and enterprises,” the government official said.
  • Kubrakov stressed that currently the work of the “grain initiative” has actually stopped – the Russians are openly sabotaging ship inspections; the throughput capacity of the corridor is less than 20% of what is possible. This leads to significant losses not only on the part of Ukraine: the world has not received at least 20 million tons of agricultural products due to Russian sabotage of the grain agreement.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 20.06.23

Personnel – almost 221,460 people (+1010);

Tanks 3,997 (+8);

Armored combat vehicles – 7,750 (+15);

Artillery systems – 3,888 (+23);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 614 (+4);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 372 (+2);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 6,645 (+32);

Aircraft – 314 (0);

Helicopters – 306 (+1);

UAV operational and tactical level – 3,393 (+10);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,214 (+3);

Boats/ships – 18 (0).

Ukraine, general news

From June 18 to 19, 2023, the South Ukrainian NPP was successfully inspected by the International Atomic Energy Agency within the framework of the agreement between Ukraine and the IAEA under the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, the State Nuclear Regulatory Inspectorate reports. No undeclared nuclear materials were found.

International diplomatic aspect

Ukraine’s MFA spokesperson announced the return of three Ukrainian POWs from Hungary; the Government is taking necessary measures to get the rest of the citizens back home. “The Embassy of Ukraine in Budapest managed to take three Ukrainian prisoners of war out of Hungary. They are already on Ukrainian territory; they are provided with all kinds of support,” Oleg Nikolenko wrote on Facebook. “I think it is good news that they are free and that there were consultations between church and religious organizations, where the Hungarian state was absolutely not involved,” Hungary’s Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó told the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe. However, Ukraine’s Military Intelligence has proof that the Hungarian Government was aware of the plans.

Norway will provide $23 million in assistance for Ukraine’s nuclear safety and security. Around $9.3 million will go to the International Atomic Energy Agency, which deployed its experts to the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant and four other nuclear sites on the free territory of Ukraine.

Howard Buffet, the son of one of America’s richest men, unleashed his criticism on the insufficient response of the international community to the Kakhovka dam destruction by Russia. “There’s a lot of help needed here. I’ve been really surprised that the international community has not responded with a much broader and stronger help,” he said. Buffett’s foundation has committed $450 million to Ukraine, and he personally visited Kherson to assist in the recovery effort. He traveled to Ukraine several times recently and aided through his foundation with the delivery of agricultural equipment (combines and tractors) and helped with demining in Kherson Oblast.

Denmark has announced another security assistance package worth $3.2 billion to be delivered in 2023-2028. The package will include weapons, other military equipment, emergency equipment, and training efforts, as well as procurement in the country’s defense industry. Denmark joined the so-called “fighter jet coalition” and expressed its readiness to train Ukrainian pilots and provide the country with F-16s. The E.U. will train another 30,000 Ukrainian soldiers in 2023 under the E.U. Military Assistance Mission for Ukraine.

The Slovakian Parliament has adopted a resolution recognizing the famine in Ukraine in 1932-1933 as genocide. “The famine in Ukraine represents, together with the Holocaust, the most tragic event against humanity on the European continent. It caused the death of millions of Ukrainian men and women, was cynically planned and cruelly executed by the Soviet regime in order to enforce the Soviet policy of collectivization of agriculture and suppress the Ukrainian population and their national identity,” the resolution reads.

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