Russia’s war on Ukraine. Daily Snapshot. 21.06.2023

Snapshot of the day:

General, humanitarian:

●      Ukrainian offensive has slowed down because 200,000 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory are mined by Russian troops;

●      Flood waters washed downstream at least 9 mines, some of them exploded on their own in Odesa and Mykolayiv Oblasts. No mines have reached other countries so far;

●      Ukrainian Anti-Corruption Bureau faces difficulties with the extradition of corrupt officials because some jurisdictions believe it’s too dangerous for them to go to the war-torn Ukraine;

●      Schools in the Russia-occupied territories have been turned into propaganda centers;

●      A disaster on the Crimean Titan plant may affect the citizens of Turkey, Romania and Moldova.

Military:

●      Russian forces concentrate their main efforts on the Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Maryinka directions, heavy battles are ongoing;

●      The Russian military is trying to increase pressure on the Ukrainian Defense Forces in the Lyman direction.

●      The Russian military command launched a series of counterattacks in the Zaporizhzhia direction, trying to restore the lost position and stop the advance of the forward units of the Tavria troop grouping of the Ukrainian Defense Forces;

●      “Tavria” troop grouping is advancing on at least two sections of the front.

Sea

●      The Azov Naval District with headquarters in MARIUPOL is being formed as part of the Black Sea Fleet. Organization and rebasing of the ships are planned to be completed by July 1, 2023.

International:

●      While Ukraine’s priority needs for 2023 amount to around $14 billion, reconstruction and recovery needs for the next decade are estimated at about $411 billion.

●      The Ukraine Recovery Conference in London brought some relief: over 400 global companies pledged their support for rebuilding the country’s economy; the U.K. set a $3 billion loan guarantees package and $305 million of bilateral assistance; the U.S. will provide an additional $1.3 billion for energy grid and other critical infrastructure reconstruction; E.U. allocated €50 billion for multi-year assistance; other countries pledged their support.

●      The DOD assessed the “overestimated value” of assistance to be $6.2 billion, which will be channeled to Ukraine. The DOD awarded a contract for the production of air-to-air missiles, including for Ukraine. Latvia donated all of its helicopters. Germany announced this week it had completed the delivery of Patriot missiles and more assistance.

●      The E.U. has adopted the 11th package of sanctions against Russia aimed at cracking down on the circumvention of the previously imposed restrictions.

●      Ukraine has urged the FATF to blacklist Russia, which will “negatively impact international settlements… It would lengthen compliance procedures even further; it could block some payments.”

●      The Brazilian President talked about peace with the Pontiff and was awarded a bronze sculpture with the inscription: “Peace is a fragile flower.”

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Consequences of the Kakhovka dam destruction

Over the past week, rescuers have pumped water from almost 700 households, 595 more households remain flooded. 68 motor pumps are in operation, said Minister of Internal Affairs Ihor Klymenko. He noted that 10 water filtration stations operate at the same time to produce drinking water for citizens. Since the beginning of the rescue operation, sappers have discovered and eliminated 62 mines in Kherson.

9 mines washed downstream from Kherson Oblast after the destruction of the Kakhovka dam were washed ashore in Odesa and Mykolayiv Oblast. Some of them exploded. No mines have been spotted in other countries, Nataliya Gumenyuk, head of the joint press center of the “South” operational command, said.

Russian attacks

Russian forces attacked 10 regions of Ukraine over the past day. There are dead and wounded civilians in four Ukrainian Oblasts.

·      On the night of June 21, the Air Force destroyed all 6 enemy kamikaze drones, which the Russians used to attack Khmelnytskyi in the west of Ukraine. There were no victims.

·      In Zaporizhzhia Oblast, the enemy carried out 87 attacks on 18 towns and villages. 66 reports were filed about the damage and destruction of residential buildings, farm buildings, motor vehicles, warehouses, and communications. During the evening attack in Preobrazhenka, four local residents were injured by mines.

·      A 74 year old man was injured by the Russian shelling of Nikopol district of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. 3 communities in the Oblast came under Russian fire.

·      In Donetsk Oblast, 10 towns and villages came under Russian fire, two people were killed and one was injured in a day.

·      In Kherson Oblast was shelled intensively. The aggressor carried out 72 shellings during the day, firing 345 shells, including 3 artillery volleys (15 shells) on Kherson. The Russians targeted the areas of 28 settlements in the region. In total, two people died, and 8 were injured.

Occupied territories

In occupied Berdyansk and Melitopol of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, children are forced to write letters to the Russian invaders, the National Resistance Center of the Ukrainian MOD reports. Russian propagandists recorded the process. The letters themselves were copied from a “sample” and dictated by Russian teachers who were brought to the region. Also, according to the Center, “youth” and militaristic movements were created in the schools, and membership is compulsory. Schools in the occupied territories have been turned into propaganda centers and parents are punished for refusing to send their children there.

Ukraine is monitoring the activity of the Russian forces at the “Crimean Titan” plant and them [Russian forces] planting explosives. A partial departure of the local population who fear a disaster is observed . No organized evacuation is taking place. In the event of an explosion, the Russian military, who are closest to the plant, will be the first to suffer, and the accident may also affect the citizens of Turkey, Romania and Moldova, said Nataliya Gumenyuk the head of the joint press center of the “South” operational command.

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Operational situation

General conclusion:

▪       Russian forces concentrate their main efforts on the Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Maryinka directions, heavy battles are ongoing;

▪       The Russian military is trying to increase pressure on the Ukrainian Defense Forces in the Lyman direction.

▪       After losing the defense node in Pyatykhatky, the Russian military command is trying to prevent the advance of the forward Defense Forces units in the direction of Vasylivka and to prevent them from reaching the main defensive line in the Robotyne-Verbove section;

▪       The Russian military command launched a series of counterattacks in the Zaporizhzhia direction, trying to restore the lost position and stop the advance of the advanced units of the Tavria troop grouping;

▪       “Tavria” troop grouping is advancing on at least two sections of the front.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

●      40 combat clashes took place on different fronts.

●      In the Lyman direction, the Russian military carried out offensive actions in the direction of Kreminna – Yampolivka, west of Dibrova, near Torske, Hryhorivka, and Spirne. Russian troops actively use Storm-Z assault units.

●      In the Bakhmut direction, Russian forces carried out unsuccessful offensive in the direction of Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Donetsk Oblast. Ukrainian Defense forces attacked in the vicinity of Klishchiivka, Berkhivka, Rozdolivka, Vasyukivka and Yahidne, advanced up to 1.5 km of Klishchiivka and approached the section of the E40 Bakhmut-Slovyansk highway.

●      In the Avdiivka direction, the Russian military carried out unsuccessful offensive actions in the area of Avdiivka, Maryinka, Krasnohorivka, and Pobieda. Units of the 33rd and 255th motorized rifle regiments (20th motorized rifle division of the 8th Army of the Southern Military District) advanced in the Novomykhailivka area.

●      In the Shakhtarsk direction, Russian forces carried out offensive actions in the direction of Novomykhailivka but had no success.

●      In the Zaporizhzhia direction, the “Tavria” troop grouping continued offensive operations on the Novodarivka – Pryiutne and Rivnopil – Makarivka lines, advanced to the southeast of Velyka Novosilka, and continued offensive operations on the Novodanylivka – Robotyne line.

●      The troops of the Russian Eastern Military District repulsed three attacks of the Ukrainian Defense Forces in the area of Velyka Novosilka and regained previously lost positions near Robotyne. Units of the Russian 429th motorized rifle regiment (19th motorized rifle division of the 58th Army of the Southern Military District) recaptured positions west of Pyatykhatky.

Change in enemy disposition:

●      Units of the Russian 76th air assault division and 98th airborne division operate near Kreminna.

Escalation indicators:

●      Russian troops used TOS-1A on the Ukrainian Defense Forces’ positions in Berkhivka.

Possible operation situation developments:

●      Ukrainian defense forces will develop an offensive in the direction of Polohy – Berdyansk; Velyka Novosilka – Berdyansk; Orikhiv – Melitopol and part of the forces – to Tokmak;

●      There will be no deep breakthroughs on the part of the Defense Forces in the coming week;

●      The Russian military command moves to a strategy of gaining time, hoping to conduct another mobilization and significantly build up its operational capabilities;

●      Using the tactical pause, the command of the “Tavria” troop grouping will adjust fire support, anti-aircraft defense and logistics of its troops in the liberated territories, and prepare to overcome minefields and other obstacles in the chosen directions.

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:

●      As of June 21, there were 8 Russian ships at sea. They patrolled the areas near the Kerch Strait Bridge and along the coast of the Taman Peninsula. The “Admiral Makarov” frigate carries 8 “Kalibr” missiles (the day before, the ship loaded a full set of ammunition in Sevastopol).

●      In the River Dnipro direction, due to the reduction flooding area on the left bank of the Dnipro River, the Russian military is restoring mine and explosive barriers. It shells Ukrainian troops and civilian objects in Mykolaiv and Kherson Oblasts;

●      The Azov Naval District with headquarters in MARIUPOL is being formed as part of the Black Sea Fleet. Organization and rebasing of the ships are planned to be completed by July 1, 2023.

●      The Azov Naval District will be equipped at the expense of the ships of the Black Sea Fleet and the Caspian Flotilla of the Russian Navy. In total, eight warships and boats, as well as 16 support vessels, will be part of the Azov Naval District:

• Tactical group of surface ships (MARIUPOL) – missile corvettes pr. 22800 “Tsyklon”, “Askold” (undergoing tests in Kerch) and “Amur” (under construction in Kerch), sea minesweeper pr. 266M “Kovrovets” (from the 68th brigade, SEVASTOPOL), raid minesweepers pr. 697TB and pr. 10750 (from the 73rd brigade, CASPIYSK);
• The total missile volley of three pr. 22800 corvettes is 24 “Kalibr” type missiles.
• 26th detachment for combating underwater sabotage forces and means – four anti-sabotage boats;
• Three groups of support vessels (MARIUPOL) – three groups of 3-5 vessels each, including the SPK-54150 marine self-propelled floating crane.

●      The introduction of the “SPK-54150” floating crane into the surface forces of the Azov Military District indicates that the Russian command plans to load “Kalibr” type missiles onto the pr. 22800 corvettes in the port of Mariupol. In view of this, the deployment of an air defense arsenal that will store missiles of the specified type in the MARIUPOL area should be expected.

●      Russian aviation continues to fly from the Crimean airfields of Belbek, Saky, Dzhankoy and Hvardiyske over the sea. Ten fighter aircraft from Belbek and Saki Air Force Bases were involved in monitoring the surface and air conditions in the northwestern part of the Black Sea, namely six Su-27/30 (BELBEK), two Su-24MR and two Mig-29 UK (SAKI).

●      Control of the air situation and management of operational-tactical aviation over the waters of the Sea of Azov was carried out by the A-50U DRLV planes.

The “Grain initiative”.

●      The UN Secretary General is disappointed by the slowdown of ship inspections within the framework of the Black Sea Initiative and Russia’s unilateral exclusion of the Pivdenny port from the grain agreement. These factors led to a slowdown in the movement of ships through Ukrainian seaports and a drop in food supplies to world markets.

●      “Food exports through the maritime humanitarian corridor have significantly decreased from a peak of 4.2 million tons in October 2022 to 1.3 million tons in May, which is the lowest figure since the start of the initiative,” said an assistant to the UN Secretary General. According to him, the UN Secretary General calls on the parties to speed up operations and urges them “to make every effort to ensure the extension of this vital agreement, which expires on July 17.”

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 21.06.23

Personnel – almost 222,000 people (+540);

Tanks – 4,006 (+9);

Armored combat vehicles – 7,771 (+21);

Artillery systems – 3,920 (+32);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 615 (+1);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 375 (+3);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 6,667 (+22);

Aircraft – 314 (0);

Helicopters – 306 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 3,428 (+35);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,214 (0);

Boats/ships – 18 (0).

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Ukraine, general news

The scale of pain and destruction Russians inflicted on Ukraine is beyond comprehension. The Russians murdered 9,083 and injured 15,779 civilians. The Ukrainian government has confirmed information about 19,500 Ukrainian children illegally deported to Russia, while the Russian government’s figure is as high as 800 thousand. The deliberate targeting of civilians resulted in 6,2 million refugees and 4.8 million internally displaced people. The direct damage to Ukraine has reached over $147,5 billion, and disruptions to economic flows and production losses amount to around $290 billion. Ukraine’s GDP shrank by 30.4 percent in 2022. Russia’s deliberate targeting of the energy infrastructure caused a decrease in generation capacity by more than half, including nuclear generation (-44%) and hydro generation capacity (-29). Some 1.3 million households (3.2 million people) worth $54,4 billion are either damaged or destroyed by Russians, according to the Kyiv School of Economics. More than a quarter of infrastructure worth $36,2 billion is either damaged or destroyed. Russians damaged or destroyed 3,2 thousand educational facilities (1,500 schools, 538 university facilities, and almost a thousand kindergartens) and 800 healthcare facilities. Up to a third of Ukrainian territory is highly likely mined.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyi explained that one of the reasons for the slowdown of the Ukrainian offensive is that 200,000 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory are mined by Russian troops.

International diplomatic aspect

The second Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment carried out by the World Bank in coordination with the E.U. and the Ukrainian Government in April estimated priority needs for 2023 amount to around $14 billion. Reconstruction and recovery needs for the next decade are estimated at about $411 billion.

As a result of the Ukraine Recovery Conference in London, over 400 companies from 38 countries pledged their support for rebuilding the country’s economy. “As we’ve seen in Bakhmut and Mariupol, what Russia cannot take, it will seek to destroy. They want to do the same to Ukraine’s economy. Together with our allies, we will maintain our support for Ukraine’s defense and for the counter-offensive, and we’ll stand with Ukraine for as long as it takes as they continue to win this war,” PM Rishi Sunak said. The U.K. set out a package of support, including $3 billion of new guarantees to unlock World Bank loans and $305 million of bilateral assistance. The U.S. will provide an additional $1.3 billion in financial assistance to “overhaul its energy grid” and modernize other critical infrastructure. The E.U. proposed a four-year financial assistance package worth €50 billion. Germany offered an additional €381 million in humanitarian assistance in 2023. France will donate an additional €40 million for emergency reconstruction of critical infrastructure and health equipment. Japan will provide $5 million in emergency humanitarian assistance in response to the Russia-made ecocide in the Kherson region. The establishment of a Community Recovery Fund was discussed by representatives of Ukraine and the U.N. humanitarian coordinator for the country. Starting with $50 million, the Fund is thought to mobilize $300 million “for the needs of the fund over the next five years.” Since Russia’s all-out invasion more than a year ago, the international community has provided Ukraine with $59 billion of assistance. With the establishment of an insurance mechanism via the French public investment bank, France set out a new tool to cover investments in Ukraine against war-related risks.

“During the [U.S. Defense] department’s regular oversight of our execution of presidential drawdown authority for Ukraine, we discovered inconsistencies in equipment valuation for Ukraine. In a significant number of cases, services used replacement costs rather than net book value, thereby overestimating the value of the equipment drawn down from U.S. stocks and provided to Ukraine,” the Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary announced. The “overestimated value” amounts to $6.2 billion, which is available for further assistance to Ukraine. The U.S. DOD has awarded Raytheon Missiles and Defense a  $1,1 billion contract for Advanced Medium Range Air-to-Air Missile for eighteen customers, including Ukraine. Latvia announced that the country is completing the transfer of all (undisclosed number) of its helicopters to Ukraine. Germany announced this week it had completed delivery of Patriot missiles, 24,500 projectiles 155mm, 155mm precision-guided ammunition, 152 border protection vehicles, and 25 truck tractor trains 8×8 HX81 and 20 semi-trailers.

The E.U. has adopted the 11th package of sanctions against Russia aimed at cracking down on the circumvention of the previously imposed restrictions. The most significant novelty is enabling restrictions on the sale of sensitive dual-use goods and technology to third countries that might sell it to Russia. The other feature is the possibility of targeting entire nations rather than a particular entity. Russia’s illegal deportation of Ukrainian children will be punished by the inclusion of 71 people and 33 entities involved in this international crime.

Ukraine has urged the FATF, the global money laundering and terrorist financing watchdog, to blacklist Russia at its meetings this week. Russia’s membership was suspended in February. Russia’s Central Bank’s chief believes that “there are no objective, technical reasons for adding us to the blacklist.” If the decision is taken, it “would above all negatively impact international settlements… It would lengthen compliance procedures even further; it could block some payments,” Elvira Nabiullina expressed her fears.

“Both [Russia and Ukraine] believe they can win militarily. I do not agree. I think too few people are talking of peace,” Brazil’s President told Corriere della Sera newspaper. While meeting Pope Francis, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva talked about peace for Ukraine, as he had announced before the meeting that seeking an end to the war was a priority. The Brazilian peace-wisher was given a bronze sculpture with the inscription: “Peace is a fragile flower.

Russia, relevant news

Grigory Klinishov, one of the creators of the first Soviet two-stage thermonuclear bomb RDS-37, was found dead in Moscow. The death of the nuclear physicist was due to suicide. He left a suicide

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