Russia’s war on Ukraine. Daily Snapshot. 22.06.2023

Snapshot of the day:

General, humanitarian:

●      On the night of June 22, Russian forces launched three Kh-22 cruise missiles and three Kh-47 “Kinzhal” aeroballistic missiles at Ukraine, the latter unsuccessfully targeted Kryvyi Rih dam;

●      Mykhailo Podolyak tweeted that the attack on Kryvyi Rih is a part of the Russian strategy to create the “sanitary zone” in Ukraine, which Russian officials had earlier referred to.

●      Over the past day, Russian forces attacked 10 Ukrainian regions along the frontline and in the rear. As a result of Russian shelling, one person was killed and 13 people were injured.

●      Volodymyr Zelensky has issued a warning that Russia is “considering the scenario of a terrorist act at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.”

●      According to the Ukrainian authorities, the situation at the ZNPP is stable and Ukrainian personnel works to keep it in compliance with safety standards despite being kept captive;

●      There are at least 15 camps in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine where Russian citizens who refuse to participate in hostilities are sent;

●      86% of Ukrainians believe that Zelensky is an effective commander-in-chief.

Military:

●      The Ukrainian Defense Forces continue the offensive operation in the Melitopol, Berdyansk and Lyman directions, purposefully and persistently overcoming the enemy’s first line of defense, providing maximum support for the attacking troops and minimizing their losses;

●      Russian forces concentrate their main efforts on the Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Zaporizhzhia directions, heavy fighting continues;

●      The intensification of Russian efforts in the Lyman direction is an attempt to force the Ukrainian Defense Forces to reduce pressure on the Zaporizhzhia direction and transfer part of their reserves to the north;

●      An assessment of the technical condition of a significant number of abandoned Russian military equipment indicates a low coefficient of its technical readiness;

●      Using the tactical pause, the command of the Tavria troop grouping will adjust fire support, anti-aircraft defense and logistics of its troops in the liberated territories. It will get ready to overcome minefields and other obstacles in the chosen directions of action. There will be no deep breakthroughs from the Ukrainian Defense Forces in the coming week;

●      In the Zaporizhzhia direction, Russian forces are preparing for attacks in the direction of Staromykhailivka – Krasnohorivka.

●      On the morning of June 22, a bridge on the Crimean Isthmus in the area of Chonhar was attacked from the air. The bridge is damaged, and traffic is stopped. A nearby railway track remains operational.

International:

●      Ukraine expects an invitation with an “open date” from the Vilnius summit.

●      Estonia has announced a new assistance package for Ukraine. Romania may be chosen to hold Ukraine’s pilots training on F-16s.

●      Australian businessman Andrew Forrest has announced a $500 million investment in the Development Fund of Ukraine.

●      Ukraine’s ombudsman believes that Russia and Hungary are engaged in a psychological operation to blame Ukraine for its “reluctance” to exchange POWs.

●      As access to state-of-the-art American weaponry increases and joint projects in space, weapons production, and hi-tech sectors commence, coupled with the underperformance of Russian weapons in comparison to advanced Western technology, Moscow’s significance for New Delhi is expected to rapidly diminish.

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Consequences of the Kakhovka dam destruction

In Kherson Oblast, as of the morning of June 22, 20 towns and villages remain flooded – three on the right bank and 17 – on the left bank. The water level in the Dnieper near the post “Kherson” decreased by 9 cm during the day and was 0.45 m.

Russian attacks

Over the past day, Russian forces attacked 10 Ukrainian regions along the frontline and in the rear. As a result of Russian shelling, one person was killed and 13 people were injured.

On the night of June 22, Russian forces launched three Kh-22 cruise missiles from the Tu-22m3 bombers from the Sea of Azov, and three Kh-47 “Kinzhal” aeroballistic missiles from the MiG-31K. The launches of four Iranian “Shaheeds” were also recorded – three enemy drones were destroyed by the anti-aircraft defense over Odesa Oblast. One of them hit a warehouse.

The missiles targeted the dam in Kryvyi Rih but failed to reach their goal. Mykhailo Podolyak, the adviser to the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, tweeted that the attack on Kryvyi Rih is a part of the Russian strategy to create the “sanitary zone” in Ukraine, Russian officials had earlier referred to. “Russia is unable to keep Enerhodar in the medium term and is therefore considering a large-scale terrorist attack on the ZNPP to stop the Ukrainian counteroffensive and create an uninhabited sanitary gray zone fixed for years to come as part of the territorial status quo without a ceasefire. This strategy also includes attempts by the “Kinzhal” missiles to attack the dam in Kryvyi Rih”

Occupied territories

The Russian military keeps heavy weapons and personnel at the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant, periodically damaging the high-voltage lines that provide electricity for the plant’s needs with shelling. But despite the occupation, the situation at the ZNPP is stable, said Yuriy Malashko, head of the Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration. Malashko reminded that the specialists of the nuclear facility have been held hostage for the second year but they continue to protect the peaceful atom and work in extremely difficult conditions. “Operational staff monitors the state of power units and ensures their operation in accordance with requirements. We know who we are dealing with, and therefore are ready for any development of events,” assured the head of the OVA.

The head of the Luhansk Regional Military Administration, Artem Lysogor, said that at least 15 basements or camps are already known in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine where Russian citizens who refuse to participate in hostilities are sent. One of the camps is arranged in Rozsypne, in the Troitsky community near the border with the Russian Federation.

According to President Zelensky, Russian occupation authorities have formed specialized groups to deal with the bodies of the people who died from flooding in the occupied parts of Kherson Oblast. The groups are supposed to hide traces of the Russian crime.

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Operational situation

General conclusion:

▪       The Ukrainian Defense Forces continue the offensive operation in the Melitopol, Berdyansk and Lyman directions, purposefully and persistently overcoming the enemy’s first line of defense, providing maximum support for the attacking troops and minimizing their losses;

▪       Airforce of the Ukrainian Defense Forces reduced the number of helicopter flights to 15-20 per day;

▪       The pace of Ukrainian ground assaults near Berkhivka is decreasing;

▪       The Ukrainian defense forces temporarily suspended the assault near Rozdolivka for regrouping;

▪       The enemy concentrates its main efforts on the Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Zaporizhzhia directions, heavy fighting continues;

▪       The Russian military is concentrating forces in the area of Svatove – Kreminna – Rubizhne – Lysychansk;

▪       The Russian command is making efforts to stop the advance of the advanced units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces in the Kamianske – Nesteryanka section and prevent them from reaching the main Russian line of defense;

▪       In the Zaporizhzhia direction, Russian forces are forced to compensate for artillery losses with attack helicopters;

▪       The intensification of Russian efforts in the Lyman direction is an attempt to force the Ukrainian Defense Forces to reduce pressure on the Zaporizhzhia direction and transfer part of their reserves to the north;

▪       An assessment of the technical condition of a significant number of abandoned Russian military equipment indicates a low coefficient of its technical readiness;

▪       The command of the Russian troops continuously tries to “cut” the Vuhledar ledge with intensive actions from the north-eastern direction, actively attacking the western outskirts of Donetsk, in the area of Staromykhailivka – Oleksandrivka, including the area of the city of Maryinka;

▪       The command of the “Vostok” troop grouping is trying to stop the advance of the forward units of the “Tavria” troop grouping and prevent them from reaching the main line of defense, using its operational reserves;

▪       The level of combat capability of the Russian troops conducting combat operations in the first echelon in the Zaporizhzhia direction is gradually decreasing, although in general, the grouping of troops retains the ability to conduct both defensive and offensive actions.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

●      40 combat clashes took place on different fronts.

●      In the Kupyansk direction, positional battles continued at the Kupyansk – Svatove frontier. Russian forces are trying to dislodge Ukrainian Defense Forces from Synkivka and are entrenched on the right bank of the Oskil River, continuing to maneuver west of the R66 Svatove-Kreminna highway.

●      On the Lyman direction, Russian forces carried out unsuccessful offensive actions in the areas of Dibrova, Bilohorivka, and Torske in Luhansk Oblast, Serebryanka in Donetsk Oblast, and on the Kreminna – Yampolivka frontier.

●      Assault groups from the 331st parachute airborne regiment (part of the 98th airborne division) with the support of tanks of the 59th tank regiment (144th motorized rifle division attacked) in the Yampolivka direction from the area northwest of Dibrova. The Russian 76th air assault division of the Russian Airborne Forces is most active in the direction of Zarichne, where the 111th, 126th brigades of the territorial troops, 26th separate special battalion and 95th separate airborne assault brigade of the Ukrainian Defense Forces are defending. To the south, along the left bank of the Siversky Donets, the positions of the 63rd and 67th separate mechanized brigades are attacked through the forest by the enemy 175th separate reconnaissance battalion (76th air assault division), the 12th, 16^th, and 20th BARS detachments. Along the right bank of the river in the direction of Bilohorivka, assault groups from the 127th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 2nd Army Corpse attacked.

●      Ukrainian Defense Forces successfully attacked in the direction of Bilohorivka – Shypylivka and entrenched themselves on the captured lines.

●      In the Bakhmut direction, Russian forces carried out unsuccessful offensive actions in the areas of Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Ivanivske, Hryhorivka, and Bila Hora. The Russian military repelled the attacks of the Ukrainian Defense Forces near Vesele.

●      Ukrainian Defense Forces stormed Russian positions near Yahidne and Orikhovo- Vasylivka. The 57th separate motorized infantry brigade of the Ukrainian Defense Forces was forced to retreat to the southwestern outskirts of Berkhivka due to Russian counterattacks, the 3rd separate assault brigade is fighting on the approaches to Klishchiivka.

●      In the Avdiivka direction, Russian forces carried out unsuccessful offensive actions in the Avdiivka, Severne, Pervomaiske, Maryinka, and Pobieda areas of Donetsk Oblast.

●      Ukrainian Defense forces advance north of Avdiivka and operate in the northern part of Maryinka. Russian forces repulsed attacks from the Ukrainian Defense Forces near Heorhiivka, Pervomaiske, Krasnohorivka, Vodyane, and Maryinka.

●      Using two assault groups from the 141st “Sevier” special motorized regiment of the National Guard of the Russian Federation (Chechnya) and the 103rd motorized rifle regiment, with the support of tanks of the 68th tank regiments of the 150th motorized rifle division, unsuccessfully attacked Maryinka along the Osykova River in the direction of Heorhiivka. 3 assault groups from the 102nd motorized rifle regiment of the 150th motorized rifle division unsuccessfully attacked Paraskoviivka.

●      On the Shakhtarsk direction, Russian forces attacked in the areas of Novomykhailivka and Vuhledar, without success.

●      In the Zaporizhzhia direction, troops of the “Tavria” troop grouping advanced on the lines of Vilne Pole – Makarivka, Novodanylivka – Robotyne, Mala Tokmachka – Verbove, Rivnopil – Staromayorske, attacked Urozhaine and, according to some sources, liberated this village. They entered the area between Zavitne Bazhanya village and Kremenchuk and hold Pyatykhatky and the district north of Robotyne.

●      From positions near the village of Zherebyanka Russian troops unsuccessfully attacked the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces in the Pyatykhatky area. The remnants of the “Storm-Ossetia” battalion retreated to fortified positions northeast of Hrozove and took up the defense. 23rd Sudoplatov BARS detachment is defended on the northern and northeastern outskirts of Zherebyanka, trying to prevent the further advance of advanced units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces in the direction of Luhove.

●      In the area of Novopokrovka, Russian forces employed units of the 38th separate motorized rifle brigade with the support of the 45th separate SOF brigade of the Airborne Forces of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation counterattacked the advanced units of the Defense Forces in the area of Novopokrovka from positions in the areas of Novofedorivka and Pavlivske advancing along the Mala Tokmachka River. Russian forces managed to break into the southeastern part of Novopokrovka and push Ukrainian Defense Forces towards Bilohirya with an attack from the Luhivske-Novokarlivka line. Further Russian advance along the T0815 highway was stopped by artillery fire from the Defense Forces.

●      Russian military uses reserves, tries to recover lost positions, and sustains heavy losses in the process.

●      Russian troops continue to build defensive lines, having built a 9 km wide defensive zone approximately 3.5 km north of Crimea.

Change in enemy disposition:

●      Russian military deployed part of its reserves (up to 4 incomplete battalions in total) on the Lisne – Hrozove – Dolynka – Myrne line to prevent the advance of the advanced units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces in the Hladke – Shyroke – Pidhirne area.

●      The Russian military command transferred units of the 83rd separate airborne assault brigade to the Klishchiivka area to replace units of the 31st separate airborne assault brigade, which recently suffered heavy losses. Military units of the Airborne Forces of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation have problems with morale on the front lines. Thus, in February 2023, 325 servicemen of the 83rd separate airborne assault brigade left their positions. As a result of search operations, 228 servicemen were found, and 97 are considered missing.

●      Units of the 429th motorized rifle regiment and 292nd self-propelled artillery regiment of the 19th motorized rifle division of the 58th Army of the Southern Military District, “Crimea” and “Sudoplatov” “volunteer” battalions operate in the Pyatykhatky area.

●      Units of the 3rd battalion of the 60th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 5th Army of the Eastern Military District operate near Makarivka.

●      In the vicinity of Urozhaine, the illegal armed formation “Cascade” (DPR) operates.

●      The 40th separate marines brigade of the Pacific Fleet operates near Novodonetske.

Possible operation situation developments:

●      Ukrainian Defense Forces will develop an offensive in the direction of Polohy – Berdyansk; Velyka Novosilka – Berdyansk; Orikhiv – Melitopol and part of the forces – to Tokmak;

●      Using the tactical pause, the command of the Tavria troop grouping will adjust fire support, anti-aircraft defense and logistics of its troops in the liberated territories. It will get ready to overcome minefields and other obstacles in the chosen directions of action. There will be no deep breakthroughs from the Ukrainian Defense Forces in the coming week;

●      The Russian command intensifies the actions of its grouping in the Lyman direction trying to divert the reserves of the Ukrainian Defense Forces from Zaporizhzhya. In the near future, Russian forces will attack in the area of Dibrova in the direction of Torske along the road from Kreminna to Zarichne. For this purpose, it deploys a tactical group of 8 battalions with the support of 2 tank battalions of the 59th tank regiment of the 144th motorized rifle division;

●      In the Zaporizhzhia direction, Russian forces are preparing for attacks in the direction of Staromykhailivka – Krasnohorivka.

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:

●      As of June 22, there were 5 Russian ships at sea. They patrol the areas near the Kerch Strait Bridge and along the coast of the Taman Peninsula. There are no “Kalibr” missiles at sea.

●      Locations of ships/submarines of the Russian Navy:

●      Black Sea:

o   “Admiral Makarov” frigate, pr. 636.3 submarine, “Alrosa” submarine, “Pytlivyy” frigate, “Ladny” frigate, “Ivan Khurs” reconnaissance ship  – SEVASTOPOL;

o   “Admiral Essen” frigate, “Vyshnyi Volochyok”, “Grayvoron”, “Ingushetia” corvettes, three pr. 636.3 submarines, “Vasily Bykov”, “Dmitry Rogachev”, “Sergei Kotov” patrol ships – NOVOROSSIYSK;

o   “Zyklon” corvette – PB KERCH;

o   “Askold” corvette – southwest of Cape OPUK;

o   “Priazovye” reconnaissance ship – southwest of NOVOROSSISK;

o   “Pavel Derzhavin” patrol ship – southeast of the Zhelyezniy Rog cape.

●      Sea of Azov:

o   “Eysk” corvette – the northern part of the Kerch Strait.

●       Location of large amphibious ships:

o   LLS “Orsk” – FEODOSIA;

o   LLS “Minsk”, “Kaliningrad”, “Olenegorsky Gornyak” – SEVASTOPOL;

o   LLS “Cesar Kunikov”, “Yamal”, “Korolyov”, “Georgy Pobedonosets”, “Pyotr Morgunov” – NOVOROSSISK.

o   Azov, Nikolay Filchenkov and Novocherkassk are being repaired in the port of SEVASTOPOL.

●      The command staff of the Azov Naval District of the Russian Federation (with headquarters in MARIUPOL) was established:

o   Commander – Captain 1st rank Aleksey Vladimirovich Komarov (previous position – commander of the 197th landing ships brigade of the Black Sea Fleet / SEVASTOPOL);

o   Chief of staff – captain 1st rank Valery Nikolaevich Trankovsky (previous position – commander of the 41st missile boats brigade / SEVASTOPOL).

o   Organizational of the district formation and rebasing of the ship’s fleet is planned to be completed by July 1 of this year.

●      Russian aviation continues to fly from the Crimean airfields of Belbek, Saky, Dzhankoy and Hvardiyske over the sea. Eight fighter aircraft from Belbek and Saki Air Force Bases were involved in monitoring the surface and air conditions in the northwestern part of the Black Sea, namely four Su-27/30 (BELBEK), two Su-24MR and two Mig-29 UK (SAKI).

●      Control of the air situation and management of operational-tactical aviation over the waters of the Sea of Azov was carried out by the A-50U DRLV planes.

●      Russian tactical aviation continues to carry out airstrikes on the territory of Zaporizhzhya, Mykolaiv, and Kherson Oblasts with guided bombs of the FAB-500M62 type.

●      On June 20, 2023, an RC-135W electronic reconnaissance aircraft was operating in the central part of the Black Sea, accompanied by two Eurofighter Typhoon FGR-4 fighters from the NATO joint forces.

●      In the central part of the city of Sevastopol during June 19-21, there were periodic explosions of ground air defense equipment.

●      On the morning of June 22, a bridge on the Crimean Isthmus in the area of Chonhar was attacked from the air. The bridge is damaged, and traffic is stopped. The railway track, laid through Sivash along the dam and a little – along the bridge, on the line Dzhankoy – Solone Ozero station – Sivash station – and further all the way to Melitopol remains operational.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 22.06.23

Personnel – almost 222,650 people (+650);

Tanks – 4,013 (+7);

Armored combat vehicles – 7,783 (+12);

Artillery systems – 3,941 (+21);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 617 (+2);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 376 (+1);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 6,678 (+11);

Aircraft – 314 (0);

Helicopters – 307 (+1);

UAV operational and tactical level – 3,438 (+10);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,214 (0);

Boats/ships – 18 (0).

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Ukraine, general news

Volodymyr Zelensky dismissed Ihor Kyzym from the position of Ambassador of Ukraine to Belarus. Kyiv summoned the ambassador to Belarus for consultations several times but soon he returned to Minsk again. The last time the MFA decided to summon Ambassador Ihor Kyzym for consultations was in April due to the meeting of the self-proclaimed president Alexander Lukashenko with the head of the Donetsk Proxy regime, Denys Pushylin. After that, the Ukrainian ambassador did not return to Minsk. Ukraine has not broken diplomatic relations with Belarus.

According to a survey by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, conducted May 26 – June 5, 86% of Ukrainians believe that Zelensky is an effective commander-in-chief. Respondents were asked a similar question in November 2021 and January 2022. At that time, only 36% and 32% of respondents, respectively, believed that Zelensky could effectively function as the supreme commander and organize the country’s defense.

International diplomatic aspect

The Ukrainian President has issued a warning that Russia is “considering the scenario of a terrorist act at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. A terrorist act with the fallout of radiation. They have prepared everything for this.” Ukraine had previously alerted about Russian plans to destroy the Kakhovka dam, which eventually took place. During the initial days of the full-scale invasion, Russian troops took control of the decommissioned Chornobyl NPP and carried out reckless actions, resulting in increased radiation levels that may have affected the Russian troops stationed there. Given Russia’s genocidal war against Ukraine and its aim to inflict severe damage, there is a concern that they might trigger a nuclear disaster despite the catastrophic consequences for Ukraine and the world. An incident at the Zaporizhzhia NPP, the largest plant in Europe, could render the Zaporizhzhia region uninhabitable and affect millions of people in Europe and globally. The International Atomic Energy Agency has acknowledged reports of mines being placed near the cooling pond but found no evidence of them during a visit by the Director General. However, the IAEA is aware of previous instances of mine placement outside the plant perimeter, which they have previously reported, as well as inside the plant for defensive purposes, according to explanations provided by the plant’s security personnel.

“We are working closely with Secretary General and NATO capitals to make Vilnius a success. We focused entirely on the possible content of NATO’s decision regarding Ukraine’s membership perspective. Ukraine is an asset to NATO; we will make it stronger,” Ukraine’s Foreign Minister twitted. The Ukrainian President’s Chief of Staff expects an invitation with an “open date” from the Vilnius summit. “I think the U.K.’s position would be very, very supportive if we moved on from the membership action plan recognizing that the offer to both Sweden and Finland didn’t require that and Ukrainians have demonstrated their commitment to reform the military for the requirement of NATO membership through their actions on the battlefield,” the U.K. Foreign Secretary said. France is leaning towards supporting Ukraine’s bid to join the Alliance, as they believe security guarantees and clear membership prospects would deter Russian aggression and encourage negotiations. Germany, however, remains cautious and is more inclined to provide Ukraine with increased security assistance rather than swift accession to NATO.

Estonia has announced a new assistance package for Ukraine, including a military hospital provided in collaboration with Iceland, as well as medical equipment, demining equipment, and counter-drone equipment. They have also supplied Ukraine with equipment worth $457 thousand to address the consequences of Russia’s destruction of the Kakhovka dam. There are ongoing negotiations for a “fighter jet coalition” to conduct aircraft training in Romania, potentially involving Lockheed Martin, the manufacturer of the F-16.

Australian businessman Andrew Forrest, with a net worth of $20.8 billion, has announced a $500 million investment in the Development Fund of Ukraine.

Ukraine’s ombudsman believes that Russia and Hungary are engaged in a psychological operation to blame Ukraine for its “reluctance” to exchange POWs. He also alleges that the Ukrainian POWs released by the Russian Orthodox Church to Hungary are currently in isolation, and Ukraine has not been granted access to them.

The U.S. and India have signed several agreements that may bring India closer to the West. While India has been concerned about growing threats from China, New Delhi has traditionally seen Moscow as a useful partner with accessible resources and a wide range of weapons systems. Economic considerations, such as obtaining cheap resources from Russia under sanctions, and security concerns have muted India’s response to Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine. However, European countries (the U.K., Germany, France, and the EU) have been courting India to reduce economic risks related to China and gain support on various issues, including Russia. Through securing weapons procurement, joint production, and technological cooperation agreements, India may be less reliant on Russia. India withdrew from a co-development deal for Russia’s Su-57 stealth fighter jet in 2018 due to cost, engineering concerns, and outdated engines. India also canceled plans to purchase 48 more Mi-17 V5 helicopters from Russia. While two more S-400 air defense systems are expected to be delivered, the underperformance of Russian weapons compared to advanced Western technology diminishes the importance of Russian weapon systems for India. This process will be accelerated with the opening access to the state-of-the-art American weaponry (MQ-9B Reaper drones), kicking of a joint production of the F414 engines for India’s next generation of jet fighters, joint space and other technological projects.

Russia, relevant news

The Russian authorities will allocate 80 million rubles to encourage foreign journalists loyal to the Kremlin. The Russian publication “Agentstvo” found on the website of the Russian state procurement agency documentation that “Rossotrudnichestvo” will spend almost 80 million rubles (about USD 987 000) on two competitions with prizes and an award ceremony in Moscow in 2023 and 2024. The first such competition was held by “Rossotrudnichestvo” in 2022: the award, named “Honest View”, cost the Russian budget 40 million rubles (about USD 494 000). According to the terms of reference, the contractor must inform about the competition journalists from 79 countries, including the USA and EU countries.

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