Russia’s war on Ukraine. Daily Snapshot. 23.06.2023
- 24.06.2023
- Опубліковано: CDS
- Категорія: DailyBrief
Snapshot of the day:
General, humanitarian:
● President Zelensky insists on the need to start negotiations on joining the EU this year and assures that Ukraine will do its part of the work;
● In May, the number of Russian missile and drone attacks across Ukraine almost tripled;
● Over the past day, 8 Ukrainian Oblasts came under Russian fire, two people died, another 8 were injured;
● Shelling of Kherson Oblast by the Russian troops returning to their positions after the flooding intensified;
● Eight Ukrainian soldiers who were POWs in Russia remain in the territory of Hungary in conditions similar to captivity;
● 158 cases of sexual violence related to the Russian Federation’s war against Ukraine mostly committed by the Russian troops have been documented by the UN;
● Between the end of May and the beginning of June, another 600 Ukrainians were deported to the Russian Federation from the temporarily occupied areas.
Military:
● The Ukrainian Defense Forces continue the offensive operation in the Melitopol, Berdyansk and Lyman directions, purposefully and persistently overcoming the enemy’s first line of defense, providing maximum support for the attacking troops and minimizing their losses;
● The Russian military command aims to create a buffer zone around Kreminna, reach the northern bank of the Siversky Donets River and capture Bilohorivka. Russian troops cannot resume full-scale offensive actions south of Kreminna due to the lack of reserves in the Luhansk direction;
● The intensity of hostilities in the Bakhmut direction decreased due to the recent rotation of Russian forces;
● The greatest intensity of hostilities in the East of Ukraine is noted near Avdiivka and Maryinka;
● Counter-attacking Russian units were completely stopped in the Novopokrovka area;
International:
● Senators Lindsey Graham and Richard Blumenthal tabled a draft resolution in response to Russia’s delivery of tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus. The resolution asserts that the use of any tactical nuclear weapon by Russia, Belarus, or their proxies should be considered an attack on NATO requiring an immediate response, including the implementation of Article V.
● The Israeli MFA cooled down their Russian colleagues who criticized the Ambassador of Israel to Ukraine for not reacting “properly” to the Ukrainian renaming their streets.
● Wagner’s chieftain ruled out the official Russian version of a “civil” war in Donbas and Ukrainians “shelling” their own cities while admitting that the UAF was fighting back the Russian forces.
● Ukraine’s state-owned oil and gas company, Naftogaz, has filed a lawsuit against Russia in the District of Columbia court, seeking $5 billion in compensation for property losses in Crimea.
● The level of Russian missile production is now even slightly higher than it was before the full-scale invasion – Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian MOD.
Humanitarian aspect
The Hungarian Ombudsman left unanswered the appeal of the Verkhovna Rada Commissioner for Human Rights Dmytro Lubinets regarding the Ukrainian soldiers who were prisoners of war in Russia and were handed over to Hungary. According to him, currently, eight Ukrainian soldiers remain on the territory of Hungary in conditions similar to captivity: they have a limited circle of communication, their mobile phones have been taken away. Relatives came to some, but communication was very short and only in the presence of the Hungarian side.
UN Under-Secretary-General for Political Affairs Rosemary DiCarlo said that to date, 158 cases of sexual violence related to the Russian Federation’s war against Ukraine have been documented, “and most of them were committed by servicemen of the Russian armed forces.”
The bodies of 51 fallen servicemen were returned to Ukraine.
Russian attacks
In May, the number of Russian missile attacks and drone attacks across Ukraine almost tripled, UN Under-Secretary-General for Political Affairs Rosemary DiCarlo said at a meeting of the UN Security Council. In total, there were more than a thousand attacks on educational and medical institutions. Most of the attacks involved the use of heavy weapons, she added.
On the night of June 23, the air defense forces destroyed all 13 Kh-101/Kh-555 cruise missiles and a reconnaissance drone with which the Russian invaders attacked the territory of Ukraine, the Air Force of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reported. The missiles targeted a military airport in Khmelnytskyi Oblast, spokesperson of the Ukrainian Air Force Yuriy Ignat said.
Over the past day, 8 Ukrainian Oblasts came under Russian fire, two people died, another 8 were injured, and there is damage to civilian infrastructure. Russian troops in the occupied parts of Kherson Oblast are returning to their positions after the flooding caused by the destruction of the Kakhovka dam, which leads to intensified shelling of Kherson Oblast and the city of Kherson. Russian forces shelled Kherson Oblast 91 times (415 shells), including 10 times (26 shells) the city of Kherson.
Occupied territories
According to the National Resistance Center of the Ukrainian MOD, the occupation regime in Crimea trained first responders in the Ministry of Emergency Situations of the Russian Federation in the north of Crimea to act in emergency situations. It is known that the occupation authorities are preparing rescuers to work in the conditions of a man-made disaster with radiation and chemical pollution, and this was the focus of training in the north of Crimea.
The National Resistance Center of the Ukrainian MOD also reported that according to the Ukrainian underground, from the end of May to the beginning of June, another 600 Ukrainians were deported to the Rostov region of the Russian Federation from the temporarily occupied regions. These are residents of Debaltseve, Dokuchaevsk (Donetsk Oblast) and Starobilsk (Luhansk Oblast). The distribution camps where residents are kept before deportation are located there.
Operational situation
General conclusion:
▪ The Ukrainian Defense Forces continue the offensive operation in the Melitopol, Berdyansk and Lyman directions, purposefully and persistently overcoming the enemy’s first line of defense, providing maximum support for the attacking troops and minimizing their losses;
▪ The Russian military command aims to create a buffer zone around Kreminna, reach the northern bank of the Siversky Donets River and capture Bilohorivka. Russian troops cannot resume full-scale offensive actions south of Kreminna due to the lack of reserves in the Luhansk direction;
▪ The intensity of hostilities in the Bakhmut direction decreased due to the recent rotation of Russian forces;
▪ The greatest intensity of hostilities in the East of Ukraine is noted near Avdiivka and Maryinka;
▪ Counter-attacking Russian units were completely stopped in the Novopokrovka area;
▪ The concentration of additional forces in the area north of Staromlynivka in the defense lane of the 60th separate motorized rifle brigade is unlikely to help the enemy keep Rivnopillia;
▪ Units of the Russian 70th motorized rifle regiment and 37th separate motorized rifle brigade are focused on repelling the attacks of the Tavriysk Group of Forces from the Novodonetske – Novomayorske line in the direction of Kermenchyk;
▪ The operational composition of the 35th Army allows to quickly start combat operations both in the Melitopol-Tokmak direction and in Berdyansk, but the untimeliness of the decision to start operations may negate this advantage;
▪ The deployment of the 5th and 35th Army troops in the operational zone of the 58th Army is an operational mistake that complicates the troop management, their comprehensive support and limits the maneuvering of forces and means, primarily reserves.
Change in the line of contact (LoC):
● Over 30 combat clashes took place on different fronts.
● In the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked in the direction of Synkivka, and tried to clear the forest areas, advancing towards Holubivka.
● On the Lyman direction, Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked in the direction of Bilohorivka, Luhansk Oblast. Their assault from Chervonopopivka in the Torske direction was also repulsed, along with dealing heavy enemy losses. Heavy fighting continues northwest of Dibrova, near Serebryansk forest, north of Hryhorivka, near Yampolivka.
● Troops of the Russian troop grouping “Center” repulsed 5 attacks of the Ukrainian Defense Forces near Kuzmyne.
● Ukrainian defense forces attacked in the direction of Bilohorivka – Dibrova, achieved partial success and entrenched themselves at the achieved frontiers. They repelled the attacks of the 80th tank regiment of the 90th tank division, “Storm-Z” and “Akhmat” detachments in the Serebryansk forest.
● On the Bakhmut direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces attacked near Ozaryanivka, and launched a HIMARS attack on military facilities south of Kodema.
● In the Avdiivka direction, Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked in the areas of Severne, Pervomaiske, Avdiivka, Maryinka, and Pobieda. Units of the 20th motorized rifle division of the Russian 8th Army have advanced near Novomykhailivka.
● In the Shakhtarsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled a Russian attack near Vuhledar.
● In the Zaporizhzhia direction, the Tavriysk Group of Forces had partial success on the Rivnopil – Staromayorske line, where advanced units reached its northeastern outskirts, attacked near Pyatykhatky, and have advanced near Zerebyanka, Novofedorivka, attacked near Verbove, repulsed a Russian counterattack in the Robotyne area, destroyed the advanced ammunition depot in Novoselivka. Fierce battles continue north of Urozhaine, units of the Tavriysk Group of Forces have reached the northern outskirts of the village.
● Russian troops unsuccessfully tried to recapture the lost territory near Makarivka, captured Novodonetsk, repelled two attacks of the Ukrainian Defense Forces near Novodonetsk and Makarivka, and several attacks on the Novodanylivka-Robotyne line. The troops of the 49th Army conducted a large-scale counterattack in the Pyatykhatky area and achieved partial success, some units of the 128th separate mountain assault brigade retreated to Lobkove.
● Ukrainian defense forces raided the islands in the Dnipro River delta southwest of Kherson.
Change in enemy disposition:
● Russian units of the 1st separate motorized rifle brigade 1st Army Corps of the 8th Army operate near Severne.
● Russian troops of the 58th Army (38th, 64th separate motorized rifle brigades, 69th separate cover brigade of the 35th Army, 70th motorized rifle regiment of the 42 motorized rifle division of the 58th Army 177th separate marines battalion of the Caspian Fleet) conduct a defensive operation along the line Novopokrovka – Novokarlivka – Bagate – Myrne – Zahirne – Dorozhnyanka – Marfopil line. Their task is to hold the defense area near Polohy and hold defenses along the Ivan Franko – Dobry Zatyshok line.
● The 1430th motorized rifle regiment of the territorial troops is deployed to the south of the Robotyne-Verbove line, the maintenance of which is quite problematic for the “Yug” troop grouping. In order to consolidate the combat order of the 291st motorized rifle regiment of the 42nd motorized rifle division, the 3rd BARS detachment, the “Akhmat-Vostok” detachment, and the combined “Beaver” UAV detachment (up to the company) were introduced to its defense zone. The 417th separate reconnaissance battalion was placed in reserve and took up positions in the village of Verbove.
● The 80th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 14th Army corps of the northern fleet is defending near Hola Prystan.
● The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation reports that it is forming an Army Corps in the Southern Military District, the reserve army (probably the 25th Army, which is being formed in the Eastern Military District, or the 40th Army), adding five regiments to the 1st tank army and the 20th Army the Western Military District. The aforementioned regiments are staffed and equipped with 60% of combat equipment.
Escalation Indicators
- The Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Armed Forces used new camouflage on “Admiral Essen” and “Admiral Grigorovich” missile frigates in order to hide “Kalibr” missile carriers from the Ukrainian UAV operators.
Possible operation situation developments:
● Ukrainian defense forces will develop an offensive in the direction of Polohy – Berdyansk; Velyka Novosilka – Berdyansk; Orikhiv – Melitopol and part of the forces – to Tokmak;
● The Russian command intensifies the actions of its grouping in the Lyman direction trying to divert the reserves of the Ukrainian Defense Forces from Zaporizhzhya. In the near future, Russian forces will attack in the area of Dibrova in the direction of Torske along the road from Kreminna to Zarichne. For this purpose, it deploys a tactical group of 8 battalions with the support of 2 tank battalions of the 59th tank regiment of the 144th motorized rifle division. At the same time, the Russian military command will try to organize simultaneous attacks in the direction of Serebryanka from the area of Kuzmyne and the direction of Hryhorivka from Shypylivka;
● If the 76th air assault division of the airborne forces of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation breaks through from the north into the Serebryanka area, and the 127th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 2nd army corps simultaneously advances from Lysychansk, favorable conditions will be created for the resumption of hostilities in the Lyman direction, but this will reduce their intensity on Soledar direction;
● Russian forces are preparing a counterattack in the Klishchiivka area;
● In the Zaporizhzhia direction, Russian forces are preparing for attacks in the direction of Staromykhailivka – Krasnohorivka;
● The Russian command can transfer 1-2 battalions of the 336th separate marines brigade of the Baltic Fleet, deployed along the Remivka-Volodyne line, to the Pryiutne or Staromayorske areas, but this will not help the 394th motorized rifle regiment of the 127th motorized rifle division of the 5th Army to hold Rivnopillia. The units of the 394th motorized rifle regiment defending along the Rivnopil-Pryiutne line will soon be forced to leave their positions in the area of Rivnopil and retreat to the Pryiutne – Staromayorske line.
Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:
● As of June 23, there were 8 Russian ships at sea. They patrol the areas near the Kerch Strait Bridge and along the coast of the Taman Peninsula. There is one pr. 636.3 submarine among them which is a carrier of Kalibr missiles. It has up to 4 missiles on board.
● In the water area of the Pivdenna Bay of the Sevastopol Naval Base, the floating dock of the “Persei” ship repair plant involved in the maintenance of the Black Sea Fleet vessels sank.
● Russian aviation continues flying over the sea from the Crimean airfields of Belbek, Saky, Dzhankoy and Hvardiyske. Seven fighter aircraft from Belbek and Saki Air Force Bases were involved in monitoring the surface and air conditions in the northwestern part of the Black Sea, namely three Su-27/30 (BELBEK), two Su-24MR and two Mig-29 UK (SAKI).
● Control of the air situation and management of operational-tactical aviation over the waters of the Sea of Azov was carried out by the A-50U DRLV planes.
● 14 aircraft (in particular, 7 Su-24, 5 Su-25, 2 Il-22) are based on the territory of Hvardiyske airfield (Crimea).
● According to the information of the Odesa Regional Center for Disease Control and Prevention of the Ukrainian Health Ministry, non-standard samples were not detected in the 2 samples of drinking water taken for sanitary and microbiological indicators and 2 samples of drinking water taken for sanitary and chemical indicators. The radiation level on the territory of Odesa was also examined. As of June 22, 2023, radiation monitoring and dosimetric control groups monitored gamma radiation at certain 120 monitoring points in Odesa Oblast. The radiation background values of 0.07-0.14 μSv/h were recorded, the norm being under 0.30 μSv/h.
Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 23.06.23
Personnel – almost 223,330 people (+680);
Tanks – 4,017 (+4);
Armored combat vehicles – 7,798 (+15);
Artillery systems – 3,985 (+44);
Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 617 (0);
Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 379 (+3);
Vehicles and fuel tanks – 6,708 (+30);
Aircraft – 314 (0);
Helicopters – 307 (+1);
UAV operational and tactical level – 3,447 (+9);
Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,214 (0);
Boats/ships – 18 (0).
Ukraine, general news
Specific steps for the full implementation of all seven recommendations of the European Commission and the start of accession negotiations this year were determined at today’s NSDC meeting, Deputy Prime Minister for European and Euro-Atlantic Integration Olga Stephanishyna reported. The European Commission provided its assessment of the progress of Ukrainian reforms only yesterday, Stephanishyna stressed. President Volodymyr Zelensky insists on the need to start negotiations on joining the European Union this year and assures that Ukraine will do its part of the work.
International diplomatic aspect
Senators Lindsey Graham and Richard Blumenthal jointly proposed a resolution in response to Russia’s delivery of tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus. The resolution asserts that the use of any tactical nuclear weapon by Russia, Belarus, or “their proxies, or the destruction of a nuclear facility, dispersing radioactive contaminates into NATO territory causing significant harm to human life as an attack on NATO requiring an immediate response, including the implementation of Article V of the North Atlantic Treaty.” The resolution sends a strong message to the Kremlin and dissuades Vladimir Putin from making another grave mistake on a global scale. Though the non-binding resolution hasn’t been adopted, it’s the first bold move to send a clear signal to the Kremlin and an attempt to deter Vladimir Putin from yet another grave mistake of a global magnitude. It will strengthen the signal sent by landing two U.S. B-1B Lancer strategic bombers at Luleå-Kallax airport in Sweden on June 19th —a historic event in and of itself.
In response to criticism from the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) spokesperson, who chastised the Israeli Ambassador in Kyiv for “failing” to respond to the street renaming in Kyiv, the Israeli MFA issued a firm statement. “There is no change in Israel’s policy that absolutely rejects and opposes the glorification of criminals who collaborated with the Nazis in murdering Jews. No party will preach to the State of Israel, the Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs and its ambassadors about the importance of preserving the memory of the Holocaust and the war by distorting history,” the statement reads.
“On February 24, nothing extraordinary happened. Now, the Ministry of Defense is trying to deceive the public, trying to deceive the president and tell the story that there was insane aggression on the part of Ukraine, and that they were going to attack us together with the NATO bloc. Therefore, the so-called special operation on February 24 was launched for completely different reasons,” chieftain of the Wagner PMC Yevgeny Prigozhin stated. The Russians admit more and more that they’ve been denying before, while portraying a “civil” war in Ukraine. Igor Girkin, another war criminal, responsible for downing MH17, revealed many times how his and other Russian intelligence operatives’ efforts helped to launch a “civil” war in Donbas, after the successful special operation of seizing Crimea. Girkin himself became the first “minister” of defense in the so-called Donetsk People’s Republic, while Alexander Borodai, another Russian citizen and FSB agent, served as its first “prime minister.” These statements expose the Russian role in orchestrating the conflict in Eastern Ukraine, which they had previously denied.
Ukraine’s state-owned oil and gas company, Naftogaz, has filed a lawsuit against Russia in the District of Columbia court, seeking $5 billion in compensation for property losses in Crimea. The lawsuit is based on the Convention on the Recognition and Enforcement of Foreign Arbitral Awards, which provides a mechanism for enforcing court decisions from other jurisdictions. In April, the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague ordered Russia to pay $5 billion in compensation for the losses incurred in Crimea, a ruling that Russia has disregarded.
German company Rheinmetall has announced that, at the request of the German government, it will supply Ukraine with twenty Marder IFVs. The order, awarded in May 2023, is valued in the lower-two-digit million-euro range. The delivery of these additional IFVs is scheduled for this summer, further bolstering Ukraine’s military capabilities.
Russia, relevant news
Russia has revived the Lourdes SIGINT center in Cuba officially closed in 2001, an investigation of The Insider states. According to the investigators, employees of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Russian Federation and rocket engineering, computing, and calculus majors are secretly sent to the island under the guise of diplomats.
Russia has increased the production of Kalibr and X-101 missiles by 3-4 times, as well as improved the use of missile weapons and unmanned aerial vehicles, the deputy head of Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian MOD Major General Vadym Skibitskyi said. Russians produce approximately forty, thirty missiles, depending on the type and fewer Kinzhal missiles, up to six units. The level of production is now even slightly higher than it was before the full-scale invasion.
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