Russia’s war on Ukraine. Daily Snapshot. 24.06.2023

Snapshot of the day:

General, humanitarian:

• Ukraine’s government has repatriated 373 children illegally taken [by Russian occupiers] to Russian territory. Children returned from deportation have spoken about experiencing both moral and physical abuse at the hands of the Russians. 
• During the night, the Russian forces launched 40 Kh-101/Kh-555 missiles, 9 Kh-22 missiles, two “Kalibr” missiles, and two “Shahed” drones at Ukraine. Out of them, all 40 Kh-101/Kh-555 missiles were destroyed, one “Kalibr” missile, and both drones. 

Military: 

• Ukrainian Defense Forces continue their offensive operation on the Melitopol, Berdyansk, and Lyman directions, with a deliberate and persistent effort to overcome the enemy’s first line of defense. 
• Russian forces have definitively lost the initiative on the Kupyansk direction; they are trying to hold Rivnopil village on the Berdyansk direction.
• Possible operation situation developments: 
• The Ukrainian Defense Forces will continue the offensive toward Polohy-Berdyansk, Velyka Novosilka-Berdyansk, Orikhiv-Melitopol, and with some forces – towards Tokmak.
• The Russian units of the 394th motorized rifle regiment, defending the Rivnopil – Pryiutne line, will be forced to leave their positions in the area of Rivnopil and retreat to the Pryiutne – Staromayorske line.

Russia, relevant news

• The PMC “Wagner” military “coup” led by Yevgeny Prigozhin lasted for 24 hours, but ultimately failed, allowing Vladimir Putin to maintain his position. However, the repercussions of the failed coup will have significant and long-lasting consequences.

---

Humanitarian 

The Vice Prime Minister and Minister for Reintegration of Temporarily Occupied Territories, Iryna Vereshchuk, reported that the Ministry has successfully repatriated 373 children illegally taken to Russian territory. The focus has been on returning children with official status, such as orphans and those without parental care, as they rely solely on the support of the state and volunteers. Vereshchuk highlighted that the children who have been returned from deportation have spoken about experiencing both moral and physical abuse at the hands of the Russians.

Vereshchuk emphasized that Ukraine has consistently made public and written appeals to the aggressor country [Russia], clearly stating that the illegal movement of children is an international crime that carries severe penalties with no statute of limitations. As previously reported, Minister Vereshchuk stated that currently, they had identified at least 20,000 children who Russia has deported. Among them, over 4,500 are orphans or children deprived of parental care. 

According to Minister Vereshchuk, the ongoing war in Ukraine has resulted in over a million Ukrainians being displaced from their homes for the second time. These individuals initially left the territories of ORDLO (Russia-occupied areas of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts) and Crimea since 2014, and then, after February 24, 2022, they were forced to leave their [acquired new] homes again and relocate to other regions of Ukraine.  

Russian attacks

During the night, the Russian forces launched 40 Kh-101/Kh-555 missiles, 9 Kh-22 missiles, two “Kalibr” missiles, and two “Shahed” drones at Ukraine. According to the Air Force, out of them, all 40 Kh-101/Kh-555 missiles were destroyed, one “Kalibr” missile, and both drones. 

The enemy carried out another massive rocket attack on Kyiv Oblast during the night. On June 24, around 3 a.m. the debris from an enemy rocket falling on a high-rise apartment building in Kyiv caused partial destruction from the 16th to the 19th floor. According to the operational information, three people were killed; eight people were injured, three of whom were hospitalized. 

The power engineers in Kyiv have restored the electrical line damaged by debris from a downed Russian missile.

The “Kyiv State Artistic and Production Studio” of the National Opera of Ukraine has been damaged due to enemy shelling. 

Russian aggressors conducted attacks on 11 Oblasts of Ukraine in the past day. 

• In Kirovohrad Oblast, Ukrainian air defense forces were active throughout the night. Several residential buildings and vehicles were damaged by debris from downed rockets in Kropyvnytskyi.
• Russian forces conducted four artillery attacks on Chernihiv Oblast andsix shelling attacks on the border areas of  Sumy Oblast.
• The Russian forces shelled 19 towns and villages in Zaporizhzhia Oblast 72 times. One person was killed due to the shelling. 33 reports of residential buildings and other properties being destroyed were recorded.
• During the night, the Russians carried out a massive rocket attack on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. There were casualties in Dnipro, including two children. Four private houses were destroyed, and another 25 were damaged. Nearly 20 vehicles and a gas pipeline were also damaged, along with an infrastructure object. The Russians also shelled the Nikopol district with heavy artillery. 
• During the night, the enemy launched two S-300 missile strikes on Kharkiv. 
• The enemy launched 20 shelling attacks on 12 towns and villages in Donetsk Oblast. Within the past day, two people were killed, and two others were injured. Thirteen residential buildings and civilian infrastructure were damaged. 
• During the night, the air defense in Mykolaiv Oblast shot down two Russian cruise missiles of the Kh-101/555 type.
• Within a day, the aggressors conducted 78 shelling attacks on Kherson Oblast (firing 399 projectiles), including 10 shellings (32 projectiles) targeting the city of Kherson. Four people were killed, and six (including one child) were injured.

Occupied territories:

In the temporarily occupied city of Enerhodar, approximately 15,000 civilians remain out of the original population of around 53,000, according to the legally elected Mayor, Dmytro Orlov. He noted that since December 2022, residents have been unable to leave the city through Ukrainian-controlled territory. Some remaining residents have obtained Russian passports, initially on a voluntary basis, but the situation has since changed. The [Russian] occupation authorities now exert maximum pressure, including reported instances of torture, against those who refuse to obtain Russian passports.

As a result, after 15 months of occupation, obtaining a Russian passport has become a means for many individuals in Enerhodar to protect their health and life, according to Orlov. He further highlighted the ongoing severe repression by the occupiers, who break into and loot vacant apartments while sealing them off. Moreover, individuals without Russian passports are being abducted and pressured to acquire them within a limited timeframe.

---

Operational situation (as of June 23-morning 24)

General conclusion: 

• The Defense Forces continue their offensive operation on the Melitopol, Berdyansk, and Lyman directions, with a deliberate and persistent effort to overcome the enemy’s first line of defense. They provide maximum support to the attacking forces and minimize their casualties.
• Russian forces have definitively lost the initiative on the Kupyansk direction.
• The enemy command is making efforts to hold Rivnopil village on the Berdyansk direction.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

• There have been over 30 combat engagements on various fronts.
• On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces continued to launch limited strikes in the vicinity of Kupyansk; they unsuccessfully attacked Synkivka, advanced to the west of it and established a small bridgehead on the western bank of the Oskil River.
• On the Lyman direction, the enemy unsuccessfully attempted to advance in the directions of Vesele, Bilohorivka, and south of Dibrova. The Russian troops made slight progress to the west of Kreminna and Bilohorivka and are trying to consolidate their positions near Spirne.
• Ukraine’s Defense Forces launched attacks near Kreminna and Shypylivka.
• On the Bakhmut direction, the enemy has been fortifying defensive positions near Semihirya; the counter-battery combat is ongoing.
• On the Avdiivka direction, the enemy conducted unsuccessful offensive actions in Avdiivka, Severne, Maryinka, Pobeda, Pervomaiske, and Novomykhailivka areas. The enemy made some progress to the southeast of Krasnohorivka.
• Ukraine’s Defense Forces launched counterattacks near Staromykhailivka and captured [unidentified] positions. They are also attacking enemy positions to the southeast of Krasnohorivka.
• On the Shakhtarsk direction, the enemy conducted unsuccessful offensive actions towards Vuhledar and Zolota Nyva.
• On the Zaporizhzhia direction, the enemy continued defensive actions, concentrating their primary efforts on preventing the advance of Ukrainian Defense Forces; attempted to regain lost ground in the Makarivka area of Donetsk Oblast. Positional battles continued near Pyatykhatky.
• The Ukrainian forces of the “Tavria” grouping attacked in the Levadne-Priyutine direction and achieved some success near Rivnopole. They also had partial success at Novodanylivka-Robotyne and Mala Tokmachka-Novofedorivka frontiers, broke through to the Russian defensive lines and advanced 1.5 km towards Robotyne and Verbove.
• The “Tavria” grouping attacked west of Novodonetske and broke through the enemy’s defense, advancing more than 4 km and currently positioned less than 3 km from the northern outskirts of Kermenchyk village, which is a critical defensive stronghold of the enemy on the Berdyansk direction.
• The enemy units of the 336th Separate Marine Brigade (Baltic Fleet) maintain control over Urozhaine. The 291st Motorized Rifle Regiment units have established a battalion defense area in Robotyne, which they are attempting to hold. To the east of Robotyne, the defense line is occupied by the 70th Motorized Rifle Regiment and the 3rd BARS detachment, which have set up a series of company and platoon strongpoints.
• The enemy’s command has deployed reserves near Orikhove. Two unsuccessful counterattacks were launched by the forces of the 70th and 503rd Motorized Rifle Regiments, the 38th Separate Rifle Motorized Brigade, and the 45th Separate Special Operations Forces Brigade in the areas of Novodanylivka village and southwest of Bilohirya village.
• The enemy’s command is deploying units of the 71st Motorized Rifle Regiment and the 37th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade in the areas of Staromlynivka, Kermenchyk, Novodonetske, and Novomayorske to halt the advance of the “Tavria” units and launch counterattacks in the southwest direction.
• The Air Forces of Ukraine have launched strikes with Storm Shadow missiles on the concentration area of the Russian National Guard in Henichesk, Kherson Oblast.
• Russian forces have begun construction of a pontoon bridge under the Chonhar Bridge on the E105 highway, which was rendered inoperative by the Defense Forces.

Change in enemy disposition: 

• Units of the 810th Separate Marine Brigade of the Black Sea Fleet, the 70th, 71st, and 291st Motorized Rifle Regiments of the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division, and the 58th Army are holding the defense north of Robotyne.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense has formed (reconstituted) the 383rd “Shakhtarsk” Rifle Division, which is currently operating in Ukraine (this information needs verification).

Possible operation situation developments: 

• The Ukrainian Defense Forces will continue the offensive toward Polohy – Berdyansk, Velyka Novosilka – Berdyansk, Orikhiv – Melitopol, and with some forces – towards Tokmak.
• The Russian units of the 394th motorized rifle regiment, defending the Rivnopil – Pryiutne line, will be forced to leave their positions in the area of Rivnopil and retreat to the Pryiutne – Staromayorske line in the near future.

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area: 

• As of June 24th, there were 5 enemy ships in the sea. They were patrolling the areas near the Crimean Bridge and the coast of the Taman Peninsula. Among them were three platforms for “Kalibr” missiles: two Project 636.3 submarines and a corvette. They can carry up to 6 missiles.
• There are 41 combat ships/boats in the waters of the bays and the outer raids of SEVASTOPOL: 2 frigates (Project 1135, 1135.6); 7 large landing ships (6 – Project 775, 1 – Project 1171); 2 submarines (1 – Project 636, 1 – Project 877V); 2 small missile boats on an air cushion (Project 1239); 6 small anti-submarine warfare ships (Project 1124); 6 missile boats (4 – Project 12411, 2 – Project 12417); 5 anti-sabotage boats (3 – Project 21980, 2 – Project IS16MII); 1 patrol boat (Project 03160); 4 minesweepers (2 – Project 266M, 1 – Project 12660, 1 – Project 12700); 2 medium reconnaissance ships (1 – Project 861M, 1 – Project 18280); 1 torpedo boat (Project 1388); 3 landing craft (1 – Project 21820, 2 – Project 11770).
• The enemy’s aviation continues flights over the sea from the Crimean airfields of Belbek, Saki, Dzhankoy, and Hvardiyske. Nine fighter aircraft were involved in controlling the surface and air situation in the northwestern part of the Black Sea waters: five Su-27/30 (Belbek), two Su-24MR, and two MiG-29 UK (Saki). 
• Airborne surveillance and operational-tactical aviation control over the Azov Sea waters were carried out by A-50U AEW aircraft.
• On the Kherson direction, the enemy operates with the “DNEPR” grouping of the Russian forces, which includes units of the 49th Army, 22nd Army Corps, and 7th Airborne Assault Division of the Russian Armed Forces. Currently, the enemy continues to fortify defensive structures along the defense lines. 
• The use of guided aerial bombs, combined missile strikes, and strike UAVs by the Russian aggressors remains a threat to critical infrastructure, the civilian population, and rescuers, including during evacuation and stabilization measures following the destruction of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Station. 
• Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 24.06.23 

Personnel – almost 223,910 people (+580);

Tanks – 4,024 (+7);

Armored combat vehicles – 7,804 (+6);

Artillery systems – 4,015 (+30);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 619 (+2);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 383 (+4);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 6,731 (+23);

Aircraft – 314 (0);

Helicopters – 308(+1);

UAV operational and tactical level – 3,460 (+13);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,228 (+14);

Boats/ships – 18 (0).

---

Russia, relevant news

The alleged military coup by the PMC “Wagner” under the leadership of Yevgeny Prigozhin lasted for 24 hours before collapsing and entering negotiations with the Kremlin, mediated by the unrecognized president of Belarus, Lukashenko. According to the Kremlin’s version, the conditions for ending the coup included dropping the criminal case against Prigozhin, his departure to Belarus, and assurances from Putin that he would not be pursued. Additionally, the Russian authorities would not hold accountable the “Wagner” PMC combatants involved in the rebellion, while those who did not participate could sign contracts with the Ministry of Defense.

“Today, the world saw that the bosses of Russia do not control anything. Nothing at all. Complete chaos. Complete absence of any predictability,” President Volodymyr Zelensky twitted. 

Though it seems the climax is over and Vladimir Putin has managed to remain on his throne, the failed coup d’état will have far-reaching consequences.

If we assume that today’s attempted coup was not staged, we can draw the following conclusions:

• Firstly, Vladimir Putin personally lost control over the situation and allegedly escaped Moscow. He has chosen a ride, not an ammo [compared to Zelensky]. It’s a sign of weakness that undermines his macho image in a country ruled by criminal-like customs rather than by law and institutions. The massive blow to the cult of personality will play a role in the future.
• Secondly, the “peacemaking” role of Alexander Lukashenko, if true, equated two tyrants and a warlord. It is well noted at home and abroad. The authoritarian leaders appreciate a firm grip over power and disrespect those who aren’t strong enough.
• Thirdly, the involvement of a so-called private military company like Wagner highlights the failure of the state. While these entities were created to carry out covert operations without direct connections to the Kremlin (seizure of Crimea, the war in Donbas since 2014, Syria, Africa and other places), their participation in the coup reveals the extent of their political influence. Wagner’s chieftain and several militaries confessed that they played in a show in Ukraine from the beginning. Such revolutions threw out theories about a civil war in Ukraine. Prigozhin also admitted that there was no massive shelling of the Russia-occupied cities by the UAF, and Ukraine wasn’t about to “invade” those territories, an important justification for war made by Putin.
• Fourthly, over-militarized Russia turned out to be defenseless. Military command failed to enforce actions from subordinates, some of whom joined the failed junta. As previous attacks of the Russian freedom fighters on Belgorod showed, Moscow could hardly gather sizable force and cope with the intrusion.
• Fifth, the locals in the cities and towns seized by Wagner didn’t organize resistance. Many of them showed sympathy to Wagner mercenaries because they were dissatisfied with Moscow and the way Putin and his closest friends and subjects waged war. 

The failed advance to Moscow, called the “March for Justice”, will leave many in Wagner and those who joined them disappointed. Feelings of injustice and betrayal are multiplied and will play a crucial role in the future. It may show that violence is crucial to bringing “justice,” while agreements serve only those better off and in power. “Either Putin or Prigozhin will be dead before year end. There is no room in Russia for both of them,” Timothy Ash twitted.

Finally, the West got a hint that there should be contingency planning in case of civil war and the dissolution of Russia. Politically correct phraseology about the absence of regime change intentions didn’t impress Putin and did not prevent such events. A failed state and society under such pressure are increasingly heading toward a collapse. The failed coup d’état in 1991 galvanized the dissolution of the Soviet Union.

Russia will remain an unstable and unpredictable entity balancing on the edge of collapse for a long time. Ukraine’s role as a guardian of the rest has increased. So, it needs more support to fight for its sovereignty and territorial integrity, therefore mitigating the threats to others and bringing an unstable regime to inevitable collapse.

---

Dear CDS Daily Brief subscribers, as we announced earlier, we will transition from email distribution to Substack, providing you with a better experience and new features.

We will continue distributing the CDS Daily Brief via email and website during the initial test period as we gradually transition to the Substack platform. We will also post links to our Substack account in our email newsletters for your convenience. https://cdsdailybrief.substack.com/

We encourage you to subscribe to our Substack account by clicking the link. By doing so, you will be able to access our newsletter on Substack and enjoy a range of new features, including the ability to search and browse past newsletters, comment on articles, and connect with other subscribers.

We appreciate your continued support and look forward to sharing our updates and insights with you on this new platform.

If you have any questions or concerns about this transition, please don’t hesitate to contact us.

---

Centre for Defence Strategies (CDS) is a Ukrainian security think tank. We operate since 2020. We publish this brief daily. If you would like to subscribe, please send us an email at cds.dailybrief@gmail.com

The CDC Daily Brief is produced with the support of the Kyiv School of Economics https://kse.ua/

Please note, that we subscribe only verified persons and can decline or cancel the subscription at our own discretion

We are an independent, non-government, non-partisan, and non-profit organisation. More at www.defence.org.ua

Our Twitter (in English) – https://twitter.com/defence_centre

Our Facebook (in Ukrainian) – https://www.facebook.com/cds.UA

Our brief is for information only and we verify our information to the best possible extent