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Russia’s war on Ukraine. Daily Snapshot. 25.06.2023

  • 26.06.2023
  • Опубліковано: CDS
  • Категорія: DailyBrief
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Snapshot of the day:

General, humanitarian:

●      Two settlements on the right bank of the Dnipro River and 17 settlements in the temporarily occupied territory of Kherson Oblast remain flooded;

●      On June 24, the Russian Air Force launched the largest series of missile strikes on Ukraine in recent months;

●      Russian forces attacked 9 Ukrainian Oblasts over the past day, 3 civilians died and 8 were injured;

●      The threat to the Zaporizhzhya NPP has never been as great as it is now, the plan to blow it up is developed and approved – Budanov;

Military:

●      Ukrainian Defense Forces continue the offensive operation in the Melitopol and Berdyansk areas;

●      Ukrainian Defense Forces significantly increased the pace of attacks, simultaneously launched an assault and advanced to the north and southwest of Bakhmut, although in general Russian forces still hold their positions;

●      The intensification of Ukrainian assaults and the decrease in the intensity of Russian artillery fire contributed to the advance of  “Tavriysk” Group of Forces to the south of Orikhiv;

●      The intensity of Russian attacks decreased in the Svatove and Kreminna directions;

●      Units of the 394th motorized rifle regiment defending along the Rivnopil-Pryiutne line will soon be forced to leave their positions in the area of Rivnopil and retreat to the Pryiutne – Staromayorske line;

Sea:

●      During the week, the Sevastopol missile arsenal got another batch of 20 missiles; the “Admiral Makarov” frigate replenished its missile stocks;

●      In May 2023, there was a significant increase in cases of the EU and G7 embargo violations on the import of Russian oil products by sea from the ports of the Black and Azov seas.

International:

●      Senior governmental national security officials from several countries, including those of the Global South, met in Copenhagen to discuss Ukraine’s peace initiatives.

●      Germany has announced its supply to Ukraine of an additional forty-five Gepard self-propelled anti-aircraft guns by the end of this year.

●      The arms depot belonging to the EMKO company in Karnobat was blown up. It belongs to a Bulgarian who allegedly survived poisoning by Novichok and several accidents at his facilities; he used to supply weapons and ammunition to Ukraine since 2014.

Humanitarian

Two settlements on the right bank of the Dnipro River and 17 settlements in the temporarily occupied territory of Kherson Oblast remain flooded following the destruction of the Kakhovka dam.

Rescue teams checked almost 620 hectares of territory in Kherson Oblast after flooding neutralizing another 76 explosive objects.

Russian attacks

Over the past day, the Russian forces shelled nine regions of Ukraine; there are killed and wounded civilians.

–       Chernihiv Oblast: 5 instances of shelling in Chernihiv and Novgorod-Siversky districts. Without victims and destruction.

–       Sumy Oblast: 8 border communities were shelled at night and in the morning. 34 explosions were recorded. Yesterday, during the day, the Russians carried out 24 shelling of border communities. 204 explosions were recorded. At least 10 residential buildings were damaged;

–       Zaporizhzhia Oblast: at night, the enemy attacked Zaporizhzhia suburbs. 71 instances of shelling on 23 towns and villages of the Zaporizhzhia Oblast were recorded. 15 residential buildings and other properties were destroyed. Two civilians were injured during enemy strikes.

–       Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Russian forces twice targeted Nikopol with heavy artillery, killing a man and wounding another man. 3 private houses and a gas pipeline were damaged. The enemy also fired heavy artillery at the Marhanets community and 20 rounds of ammunition in the Synelnyky district. No injuries or destruction were reported.

–       Kharkiv Oblast: at least 17 towns and villages in two directions came under Russian fire. A 49-year-old civilian was injured in Kruglyakivka of the Kupyansk district.

–       Luhansk Oblast: Almost every day, Russian aircraft and artillery attack Bilohorivka. Nevsky and the small settlements around it were also affected yesterday. During the day, the enemy fired 118 rounds (511 shells).

–       Donetsk Oblast: Russian forces carried out 10 attacks on populated areas of the region. 6 villages were under shelling. 5 residential buildings, 4 civilian cars, 4 trade pavilions, an outbuilding, and a shop were damaged. 1 dead, 2 wounded.

–       Mykolaiv Oblast: Russian forces fired artillery at the waters of the Ochakiv community. There are no casualties.

–       Kherson Oblast: the enemy fired 59 rounds (253 shells) in the region during the day. The Russian military targeted 22 towns and villages. Two people were injured. On Sunday morning, one more person was killed in Kherson.

Occupied territories

The head of the Main Intelligence Directorate Kyrylo Budanov is convinced that the plan to blow up the Zaporizhzhya NPP has been fully developed and approved by the [Russian] occupiers, and the threat has never been as great as it is now. The only element missing is the order to act. “Then it can happen in a matter of minutes,” he said. At the same time, Budanov believes that “technical means can be used to accelerate the catastrophe.” According to Budanov, the station’s cooling reservoir was mined by Russian troops. Without cooling, nuclear reactors can melt down in a period of 10 hours to 14 days. He believes that Russia will be able to increase the voltage in the power lines at the station, leading to a nuclear accident closer to the lower limit of this time frame.

According to the National Resistance Center of the Ukrainian MOD, In the temporarily occupied Mariupol, the Russian occupation forces began to check Ukrainian children for “loyalty to Ukraine”. Local teenagers are stopped at checkpoints, the content of their phones and whether they have a Russian passport is checked (according to Russian law it is obtained at the age of 14). After checking for involvement in the partisan movement, “preventive conversations” are held with the children, where they are required to report “unreliable friends”

Operational situation

General conclusion:

  • Ukrainian Defense Forces continue the offensive operation in the Melitopol and Berdyansk areas;
  • Ukrainian Defense Forces significantly increased the pace of attacks, simultaneously launched an assault and advanced to the north and southwest of Bakhmut, although in general Russian forces still hold their positions;
  • The intensification of Ukrainian assaults and the decrease in the intensity of Russian artillery fire contributed to the advance of “Tavriysk” Group of Forces to the south of Orikhiv;
  • The intensity of Russian attacks decreased in the Svatove and Kreminna directions;
  • The Russian military does not have enough forces for a frontal assault on Avdiivka;
  • On June 24, the Russian Air Force launched the largest series of missile strikes on Ukraine in recent months;
  • During the “Wagner” PMC raid on the territory of the Russian Federation, its units used their usual tactics developed in Libya: the rapid movement of a convoy, which is covered by multi-layer air defense;
  • The ability of PMC “Wagner” to carry out large-scale autonomous operations on the territory of the Russian Federation remains questionable;
  • The specialized internal security forces of the Russian Federation were unable to react to the actions of the “Wagner” PMC

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

  • 29 combat clashes took place on different fronts.
  • In the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces carried out unsuccessful offensive actions in the direction of Berestove; all Russian attempts to get closer to Kupyansk remain futile.
  • In the Lyman direction, Russian forces carried out unsuccessful offensive actions in the direction of Vesele and south of Dibrova. Troops of the Russian “Center” Grouping repelled four attacks by the Ukrainian Defense Forces in the Serebryansk Forest area.
  • In the Bakhmut direction, Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensives in the area of Ivanivske and Vesele, Donetsk Oblast. Ukrainian Defense Forces launched simultaneous offensive operations near Bakhmut itself, near Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Bohdanivka, Yahidne, Klishchiivka, and Kurdyumivka, and made some progress in all directions.
  • Units of the 123rd separate motorized rifle brigade of the 1st Russian Army Corps repulsed the assaults of the Ukrainian Defense Forces near Vesele.
  • In the Avdiivka direction, Russian forces carried out offensive actions in the Maryinka area, without success. Units of the 1st separate motorized rifle brigade of the 1st Russian Army Corps repulsed Ukrainian attacks near Avdiivka, Pervomaiske, 150th motorized rifle division – near Maryinka. Units of the 114th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 1st Army Corps retreated in the area of Krasnohorivka.
  • Units of the 1004th rifle regiment of mobilization reserve of the 1st Army Corps, supported by units of the “Sparta” 80th separate reconnaissance battalion, operating along the Vodyane-Severne road, attacked the advanced positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces aiming to advance to Severne and Tonenke. Units of the 1439th rifle regiment with the support of the 80th separate reconnaissance battalion attacked the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces from the direction of Opytne – the western outskirts of the city of Avdiivka, trying to advance to the western outskirts of the city in the area of the 9th quarter. Russian forces achieved partial success, advancing up to 1.5 km in the direction of Severne and up to 1.4 km in the direction of the 9th quarter, but were unable to fully accomplish their tasks.
  • The Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked and advanced up to 1 km in the areas of Kamianka – Vesele, west of Kruta Balka and on the flank of the attacking Russian forces in the Opytne area in the direction of Spartak.
  • In the Shakhtarsk direction, the 155th separate marines brigade of the Pacific Fleet and the 14th separate SOF brigade conducted a series of unsuccessful attacks near Vuhledar.
  • In the Zaporizhzhia direction, Russian forces continue to conduct defensive operations, and concentrate their main efforts on preventing the advance of the troops of the “Tavriysk” Group of Forces.
  • The enemy’s 37th and 60th separate motorized rifle brigades repulsed three attacks of the Ukrainian Defense Forces to the south and southwest of Velyka Novosilka. The 131st motorized rifle regiment of the 1st Army Corps unsuccessfully counterattacked near Zolota Nyva, units of the 37th separate motorized rifle brigade tried in vain to recapture their lost positions near Makarivka.
  • The “Tavriysk” Group of Forces increased its efforts in the direction of Robotyne, successfully using the problems with the Russian artillery ammunition supply, advanced 1.5 km and broke into the front trenches of the Russian 291st motorized rifle regiment in the Robotyne area. The Russian command was forced to transfer the 22nd and 45th separate SOF brigades to this area in order to stop the advance of the Ukrainian Defense Forces.
  • During the past day, the “Wagner” PMC took control of the headquarters of the Southern Military District in Rostov-on-Don with the forces of the 1st Assault Group (commander – Oleksandr Kuznetsov), the 7th Assault Group (commander – Fedor Leschuk) – the main command post of the Southern Military District troops in Novocherkassk (the Russian troops on the Ukrainian military theater are managed from there). Another four assault units tried to capture the Morozovsk, Taganrog, Millerovo and Buturlinovka military airfields.
  • The “Wagner” PMC actions resulted in the destruction of 3 EW Mi-8MTRP-1, 1 Mi-8, 1 Ka-52, 1 Mi-35, 1 Mi-28 helicopters and the Il-20 electronic reconnaissance aircraft. Losses of the flight crew may range from 13 to 22 people.
  • After the agreement brokered by the Belarusian dictator, units of the “Wagner” PMC are returning to their camps.

Change in enemy disposition:

  • The Russian command is forming the following two tactical groups (TG) to encircle Avdiivka:
    • TG “North”: 136th separate motorized rifle brigade, 11th motorized rifle regiment, 1231st and 1454th motorized rifle regiments of territorial troops, 6th motorized rifle battalion of the 9th motorized rifle regiment, 277th motorized rifle battalion of mobilization reserve, 10th separate tank battalion of the 1st Army Corps.
    • TG “South”: 33rd and 255th motorized rifle regiments (20th motorized rifle division, 8th Army), 1st separate motorized rifle brigade, 57th motorized rifle regiment of territorial troops, 1004th, 1439th and 1453rd rifle regiments of mobilization reserve, 10th separate tank regiment of the territorial troops, separate assault brigade “Somali”, 287th motorized rifle battalion of mobilization reserve, 80th separate reconnaissance battalion “Sparta”, 14th artillery brigade of the 1st Army Corps.
  • TG “South” is more powerful even without taking into account the forces and means already deployed in the area of Pervomaiske and Nevelske. Additionally, at these locations, there are at least two units of the “Shtorm-Z” detachment deployed.

Possible operation situation developments:

  • Ukrainian Defense Forces will develop an offensive in the direction of Polohy – Berdyansk; Velyka Novosilka – Berdyansk; Orikhiv – Melitopol and part of the forces – to Tokmak;
  • Units of the 394th motorized rifle regiment defending along the Rivnopil-Pryiutne line will soon be forced to leave their positions in the area of Rivnopil and retreat to the Pryiutne – Staromayorske line;
  • The Russian command will try to implement the plan to encircle the Ukrainian Defense Forces in Avdiivka. For this purpose, it will intensify attacks in the directions Krasnohorivka – Stepove and Vodyane – Tonenke to break through to the Berdychi – Lastochkine – Orlyivka – Semenivka area and surround the entire grouping of the Ukrainian Defense Forces in the Avdiivka area. Probable line of deployment into operation is Vodyane – Opytne;
  • Ukrainian Defense Forces will continue active offensive and defensive actions for the next 2-3 months;
  • The agreement, reached through the mediation of the self-proclaimed president of the Republic of Belarus, will change the status of the “Wagner” PMC on the Russian military theater in Ukraine from an almost independent player to a linear unit of the Russian Defense Ministry, although the elements of the organization may retain a certain autonomy of actions due to existing and new opportunities.

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:

  • As of June 25, there were 6 Russian ships at sea. They patrol the areas near the Kerch Strait Bridge and along the coast of the Taman Peninsula. There is one Kalibr missile carrier among them: pr. 636.3 submarine. It has up to 4 missiles on board. In the course of the last week, there were two missile strikes from sea carriers (June 19 and 24), 6 Kalibr missiles were fired. All missiles had targeted Odesa. 5 rockets were shot down by Ukrainian Air Defense Forces, one was damaged and fell on an open area. During the week, the missile arsenal in the city of Sevastopol got another batch of 20 missiles, the “Admiral Makarov” frigate replenished its missile stocks.
  • Russian aviation continues to fly from the Crimean airfields of Belbek, Saky, Dzhankoy and Hvardiyske over the sea. Ten fighter aircraft from Belbek and Saki Air Force Bases were involved in monitoring the surface and air conditions in the northwestern part of the Black Sea, namely six Su-27/30 (BELBEK), two Su-24MR and two Mig-29 UK (SAKI).
  • Control of the air situation and the management of operational-tactical aviation over the waters of the Sea of Azov were carried out by A-50U Airborne Early Warning and Control (AEW&C) aircraft
  • In May 2023, there was a significant increase in cases of violations of the EU and G7 embargo on the import of Russian oil products by sea from the ports of the Black and Azov Seas. The total volume of transportation reached 896,840 tons, marking a significant increase of 170,630 tons or 23.5% compared to April.
  • During May 2023, the majority of embargo violations, specifically 17 out of 22, involved the delivery of petroleum products for raid transshipment in the exclusive maritime economic zone of EU countries. Among these violations, 16 occurred in Greece, while one violation occurred in Malta. There was a significant increase in demonstrative violations of the embargo during May, where tankers directly transported Russian oil products from Russian ports to ports in the EU and the USA. In February 2023, there was one such trip, followed by two trips each in March and April. However, in May, there were five direct trips recorded. These trips involved tankers owned by Greek (4) and American (1) shipowners, transporting petroleum products from Russian ports to various ports in EU countries such as Sarroc, Italy; Agios Theodori, Greece; Rijeka, Croatia; Rouen, France; as well as Fairless Hills, Pennsylvania in the USA. Furthermore, during May 2023, nine out of the 17 trips involving Russian oil products for raid transshipments were carried out by tankers owned by Greek shipowners.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 25.06.23

Personnel – almost 224,630  people (+720);

Tanks – 4,030 (+6);

Armored combat vehicles – 7,806 (+2);

Artillery systems – 4,034 (+19);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 624 (+5);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 385 (+2);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 6,735 (+4);

Aircraft – 314 (0);

Helicopters – 308 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 3,472 (+12);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,259 (+41);

Boats/ships – 18 (0).

International

While Vladimir Putin was hiding from the Wagner mercenaries advancing towards Moscow, senior governmental national security officials from several countries met in Copenhagen to discuss Ukraine’s peace initiatives. Notably, this meeting held significance as it involved countries from the Global South, including South Africa, India, Brazil, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia. The G7 was in attendance, except for Jake Sullivan, who was preoccupied with monitoring the “March for Justice” by Wagnerites. China and the UAE chose to disregard the gathering. The primary objective of the meeting was to address the concerns of the Global South and garner their support for Ukraine’s peace plan, which aimed to establish a just and lasting peace based on the principles outlined in the U.N. charter and international law.

Germany has announced its supply to Ukraine of an additional forty-five Gepard self-propelled anti-aircraft guns by the end of this year, with the initial fifteen units set to be delivered in the upcoming weeks.

Meanwhile, an incident occurred in Karnobat, Bulgaria, where the arms depot belonging to the EMKO company was destroyed. The facility is owned by Amilin Gebrev, a Bulgarian businessman who has been providing ammunition and weapons to Ukraine since 2014. It is worth noting that Gebrev previously survived an apparent Novichok poisoning incident in 2015.

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