Russia’s war on Ukraine. Daily Snapshot. 26.06.2023

Snapshot of the day:

General, humanitarian:

–       President Zelensky visited the frontline positions in Zaporizhzhia Oblast;

–       Situation at Zaporizhzhya NPP remains stable, there is enough water in the cooling pond;

–       Overall, 9 Ukrainian Oblasts came under Russian fire, Kherson Oblast was attacked with incendiary munitions;

–       On the night of June 26, the Air Force shot down 2 out of 3 Kalibr cruise missiles fired at Odesa, 7 out of 8 Shahed UAVs, and all 4 UAVs of an unknown type.

–       To date, not a single confirmed case of cholera has been registered in the Oblasts affected by the flooding following the Kakhovka dam destruction;

–       Some Ukrainian POWs still remain in the penal colony in Olenivka, where Azovstal defenders were killed by an explosion last summer;

–       31-year-old Director General of the Kharkiv Malyshev Plant Herman Smetanin appointed the new head of the Ukroboronprom state concern.

Military:

–       The Ukrainian Defense Forces continue the offensive operation in the Melitopol and Berdyansk directions;

–       During the last two days, the Russian command has continued to build up the defense along the Hrozove-Dolynka line and the Verkhnya Krynytsia-Luhove-Hladke-Lisne defense area;

–       The command of the Russian “South” grouping is trying to stop the movement of the advanced units of the “Tavriysk” Group of Forces in the directions Kamianske – Vasylivka (along the Dnipro River), Pyatykhatky – Zherebyanka and further to Luhove and south of the Hrozove – Dolynka line;

–       The partial introduction of the operational reserve into the operation indicates that the commander of the Russian “South” grouping lacks confidence in the stability of their defense in this direction;

–       Russian forces began to concentrate assault units in the Kermenchyk – Novodonetske area for an attack in the direction of Zolota Nyva.

International:

–       The E.U. raises a military aid fund’s cup by €3.5 billion. Australia donates military vehicles and other aid valued at $74 million, while the U.S. is expected to announce a $500 million worth of aid that will likely include Bradley and Stryker IFVs.

–       Following a humiliating weekend, Putin’s minions start showing their importance and competence in “protecting” statehood. Lavrov said that relevant services are checking whether Ukraine or the West was involved in the mutiny.

–       Western leaders still assess the Russian mutiny, believing it damaged the Putin system a lot.

–       Evgenii Prigozhin or his associates responsible for killing elite pilots and destroying valuable equipment enjoy impunity. This sends a discouraging signal to the Russian military, as the support given by the commander-in-chief to this criminal group over the professional military who serve the country is perceived as an insult that will be remembered and not easily forgotten.

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Humanitarian aspect

According to the Ukrainian Commissioner for Human Rights Dmytro Lubinets, Ukrainian prisoners of war still remain in the penal colony in Olenivka where an explosion killed a number of Azovstal defenders last summer. The Russian occupation forces have been relocating many Ukrainian POWs in small groups of 20-25 people to different institutions, making it difficult to maintain contact with them. Lubinets stated, “They did everything so that we lost contact with them.”

According to the Main Investigative Department of the National Police, since the beginning of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation, almost 8,800 civilians in Ukraine have become victims of enforced disappearances, and 10,200 people are considered missing.

According to Oleg Kiper, the head of the Odesa Oblast Military Administration (OMA), the information about cholera outbreaks in the regions affected by flooding massively spread online is fake. He emphasized that to date, not a single confirmed case of cholera has been registered in the territories of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv, Dnipropetrovsk, and Odesa regions.

In Nikopol, the water supply interrupted as a result of the Russian terrorist attack on the Kakhovka HPP was restored for a third of the city’s residents, reported Serhiy Lysak, head of the Dnipropetrovsk OMA.

Russian attacks

On the night of June 26, the Air Force shot down 2 out of 3 Kalibr cruise missiles, 7 out of 8 Shahed UAVs, and all 4 UAVs of an unknown type used by Russian forces to attack Ukraine.

Overall, 9 Ukrainian Oblasts came under Russian fire over the past day. Some of the consequences include:

•   Kherson Oblast was shelled intensively. 95 instances of shelling (644 shells) including 4 instances (17 shells) of Kherson city were recorded in the Oblast. The occupiers targeted 27 towns and villages and areas around them. 1 person died and 7 were injured.  At night Kherson Oblast was attacked with prohibited incendiary shells.

•   Zaporizhzhia Oblast: the Russian occupiers made 52 attacks on 14 towns and villages. 38 new reports of the destruction of civilian objects were recorded. At night in Preobrazhenka, a 73-year-old man and a 77-year-old woman were rescued from under the rubble.

•   Donetsk Oblast: 3 civilians were injured during the day. Russian forces carried out 20 attacks on populated areas of the region. 2 infrastructure objects, 16 residential buildings, an administrative building, a power line, etc. were damaged.

Occupied territories

According to Energoatom, the water level in the cooling pond of Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) has slightly decreased as of this morning. However, it is emphasized that the current level remains sufficient and is not dependent on the water level in the damaged Kakhovka reservoir. The situation at Zaporizhzhia NPP is considered stable.

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Operational situation (as of morning 26.06)

General conclusion:

–       The Ukrainian Defense Forces continue the offensive operation in the Melitopol and Berdyansk directions;

–       Russian troops continue attacks near Svatove and Bakhmut;

–       The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation completed preparations for an attack on the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant;

–       Units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces hold positions on the eastern bank near the Antoniv Bridge in Kherson Oblast;

–       The enemy’s military command has been reinforcing its defense along the Hrozove-Dolynka line and the defensive area of Verkhnya Krynytsia-Luhove-Hladke-Lisne over the past two days. Several strongholds have been occupied by units of the 4th military base. In the area near Lisne village, on both sides of the road between Kamianske and Vasylivka, units of the 810th Separate Marine Brigade of the Black Sea Fleet are being deployed. This brigade was previously in the operational reserve of the group.

–       The command of the Russian “South” troop grouping is attempting to halt the advance of the advanced units of the “Tavriysk” Group of Forces along the directions of Kamianske – Vasylivka (along the Dnipro River) and Pyatykhatky – Zherebyanka, and further towards Luhove and south of the Hrozove-Dolynka line. To achieve this, they are gradually deploying military units and formations of the 35th Army, which serves as the operational reserve of the entire grouping.

–       The enemy command made a mistake by dispersing forces of the 37th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade and the 40th separate marines brigade in the area of Kerminchyk village and by positioning units of the 71st motorized rifle regiment in the second echelon of the 37th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade along the road between Staromlynivka and Kerminchyk villages. Now, they are forced to prepare a counterattack to maintain the defensive area they have organized.

–       The deployment of units from the operational reserve (810th separate marines brigade  in the Vasylivka area) indicates the uncertainty of the enemy’s “South” troop grouping commander regarding the defense stability on this front.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

–       Over 36 combat clashes took place on different fronts.

–       In the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked near Berestove, Kharkiv Oblast; in the area west of Kryvoshiivka, Luhansk Oblast. 

–       On the Lyman direction, Russian forces unsuccessfully advanced in the Vesele and Rozdolivka directions of Donetsk Oblast. Russian forces repelled four attacks of the Ukrainian Defense Forces near Karmazynivka, Yampolivka, and Dibrova.

–       In the Bakhmut direction, Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive actions in the areas of Mynkivka, Hryhorivka, Rozdolivka, Vesele, Ivanivka, and Bohdanivka of Donetsk Oblast.

–       Ukrainian Defense Forces attacked near Kurdyumivka, Klishchiivka, Yahidne and along the Vasyukivka-Rozdolivka line. The 3rd separate assault brigade of the Ukrainian Defense Forces defeated the battalion of the 57th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 5th Army and completely cleared the Russian bridgehead between Mayorsk and Kurdyumivka on the western bank of the Siversky Donets – Donbas canal.

–       In the Avdiivka direction, Russian forces carried out offensive actions in the Maryinka area, without success. Ukrainian Defense Forces advanced slightly between Pisky and Pervomaiske on the northwestern outskirts of Donetsk. The “Akhmat-Vostok (East)” detachment and an unidentified special purpose unit of the Russian Armed Forces suddenly retreated from Maryinka.

–       In the Shakhtarsk direction, Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked in the direction of Novomykhailivka.

–       In the Zaporizhzhia direction, the Russian military is concentrating its main efforts on preventing the advance of the troops of the “Tavriysk” Group of Forces. It unsuccessfully tried to restore the lost position in the Novodarivka area, unsuccessfully attacked near Makarivka and Zolota Nyva, repulsed the attacks of the “Tavriysk” Group near Robotyne and Novopokrovka. It is making efforts in the direction of Novodanylivka – Novoprokopivka in order to prevent the loss of positions in the Robotyne area. For this purpose, it was forced to stretch the battle formations of the 291st and 70th motorized rifle regiments. The level of combat capability of the 291st motorized rifle regiment significantly decreased after an unsuccessful counterattack in the area of Kopany.

–       In the Lobkove-Pyatykhatky area, the enemy’s 429th motorized rifle regiment units withdrew from the eastern part of Kamianske while continuing to hold its southern part. They left Zherebyanka and retreated to fortified positions west of the village. The main forces of the enemy’s 429th motorized rifle regiment took up defensive positions northeast of Luhove village.

–       The advanced units of the “Tavriysk” Group of Forces simultaneously pressed the enemy’s 503rd motorized rifle regiment units from three directions in the area of Nesteryanka, attacking on the flanks in the areas of Kopany and west of Nesteryanka.

–       The enemy is unable to stop the advance of the Defense Forces in the direction of Makarivka – Staromlynivka, as the advanced units have already entered the village of Urozhaine, where they are engaged in fierce combat with units of the 60th separate motorized rifle brigade and pressed them to the bank of the Mokri Yaly River in the village of Staromayorske.

–       Ukrainian Defense Forces advanced near Rivnopil and Priyutine.

–       Ukrainian Defense Forces hold positions near the Antoniv Bridge in Kherson Oblast.

–       Around 4 a.m., the presidential air command post of the Russian Federation, the Il-96-300PU (RA-96021), equipped for the control of strategic nuclear forces, returned to Moscow from St. Petersburg.

Change in enemy disposition:

–       Units of the 291st motorized rifle regiment (the 42nd motorized rifle division of the 58th Army of the Southern Military District) operate near Robotyne.

–       The deployment of enemy’s units from the 1430th motorized rifle regiment of the territorial troops has been completed in the area of Novoprokopivka. Behind the battle formations of the 291st motorized rifle regiment, the 11th BARS detachment concentrated on the heights south of Kopany. Between Kopany and Novoprokopivka, the 249th special motorized battalion of the 46th separate operational brigade of the Federal Service of the National Guard Troops (better known as the “Akhmat-Yug (South)” detachment) has been deployed.

–       The 14th detachment of BARS “Sarmat” was concentrated South of Verbove village (the main Russian line of defense).

–       The 69th separate cover brigade is concentrated in the area of Novokarlivka – Bagate – Ukrayinske – Inzhenerne on both sides of the T0815 road towards Polohy.

Escalation Indicators

• The “Kalashnikov Group” steel research institute has started supplying the Russian military with the “Nakidka” system – a camouflage fabric that covers a significant portion of the tank’s hull and turret, making it more difficult to detect by radar and thermal imaging devices.

Possible operation situation developments:

–       Ukrainian Defense Forces will develop an offensive in the direction of Polohy – Berdyansk; Velyka Novosilka – Berdyansk; Orikhiv – Melitopol and part of the forces – to Tokmak;

–       Ukrainian Defense forces will continue active offensive and defensive actions for the next 2-3 months;

–       Units of the 394th motorized rifle regiment defending along the Rivnopil-Pryiutne line will soon be forced to leave their positions in the area of Rivnopil and retreat to the Priyutine – Staromayorske line;

–       The Russian command will try to encircle the Ukrainian Defense Forces in Avdiivka. For this purpose, it will intensify attacks in the directions Krasnohorivka – Stepove and Vodyane – Tonenke to break through to the Berdychi – Lastochkine – Orlyivka – Semenivka area and surround the entire grouping of the Ukrainian Defense Forces in the Avdiivka area. The probable line of introduction into operation is Vodyane – Opytne;

–       Russian forces began to concentrate assault units in the Kerminchyk – Novodonetske area for an attack in the direction of Zolota Nyva. It is to be expected that the units of the 40th separate marines brigade will be involved in this counterattack from their positions northwest of Novomayorske.

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:

–       As of June 26, there were 4 Russian ships at sea. They patrol the areas near the Kerch Strait Bridge and along the coast of the Taman Peninsula. There were no Kalibr missile carriers among them. On the morning of June 26, 3 Kalibr missiles were fired from aboard a Project 636.3 submarine at targets in Odesa (after this the submarine returned to the base). 2 missiles were shot down by Ukrainian air defense.

–       Russian aviation continues flying over the sea from the Crimean airfields of Belbek, Saky, Dzhankoy and Hvardiyske. Eight fighter aircraft from Belbek and Saki Air Force Bases were involved in monitoring the surface and air conditions in the northwestern part of the Black Sea, namely four Su-27/30 (BELBEK), two Su-24MR and two Mig-29 UK (SAKI).

–       Control of the air situation and management of operational-tactical aviation over the waters of the Sea of Azov was carried out by the A-50U AEW&C aircraft.

–       On the territory of Kirovske airfield (Crimea) there were 34 pieces of aviation equipment: 10 aircraft (in particular, 3 An-72, 5 Su-30SM, 1 An-26, 1 L-39), 24 helicopters (in particular, 10 Mi-8, 1 Ka-27, 6 Mi-24, 1 Mi- 28, 1 Ka-52, 5 Mi-24/28).

–       On the territory of the “Yevpatoria Aviation Repair Plant” (Crimea) there are 8 aircraft (in particular, 3 An-12 aircraft (which have not changed their position since 2017 and are probably in long-term storage), 3 Be-12 aircraft and 1 Yak aircraft 38 (partially dismantled fuselage elements), 1 Su-25).

–       There are 35 helicopters (in particular, 15 Mi-8, 8 Ka-52, 6 Mi-28, 5 Mi-24) on the territory of the Dzhankoy airfield (Crimea). Also, there are 2 Pantsir air defense complexes on the territory of the airfield.

The “Grain Initiative”

–       Ukraine has devised an alternative plan to ensure the uninterrupted export of agricultural products in case the grain corridor operation is terminated by the Russian side. Ukraine is making preparations to enhance the capacity of the Danube region for transportation. Furthermore, additional transit points and dry ports are being established along the western border with Poland and Romania. To mitigate the potential risks associated with the termination of the grain corridor operation, the budget has allocated 20 billion UAH for insuring ships that are willing to transport Ukrainian grain

–       As for grain prices, the Ministry of Agrarian Policy hopes that they will level off by September and be close to last year’s prices.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 26.06.23

Personnel – almost 225,580 people (+950);

Tanks – 4,031 (+1);

Armored combat vehicles – 7,820 (+14);

Artillery systems – 3,055 (+21);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 624 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 385 (0);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 6,751 (+16);

Aircraft – 314 (0);

Helicopters – 308 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 3,482 (+10);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,259 (0);

Boats/ships – 18 (0).

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Ukraine, general news

President Volodymyr Zelensky visited the forward positions of Ukrainian troops in the Berdyansk direction. He stressed that it was very important to be there at this time.

The Cabinet of Ministers has approved Herman Smetanin as the new head of the Ukroboronprom state concern. Smetanin, aged 31, currently serves as the head of the Kharkiv Malyshev Plant. After completing his university education, Smetanin began his career at the Kharkiv Morozov Engineering Bureau. Over the years, he gained experience working at the Lviv Armour Producing Plant and eventually held the position of director of production at the Malyshev Plant. At the age of 28, he became the director of the Kharkiv Armour Producing Plant, and shortly after, he assumed the role of Director General at the Malyshev Plant, one of the leading industrial giants. President Zelensky has entrusted Smetanin with three primary objectives: increasing the production of all types of weaponry, combating corruption within the industry, and completing the reform of the defense sector.

International diplomatic aspect

The cap of the European Peace Facility, a fund used to provide military aid to Ukraine, has been increased by €3.5 billion to reach €12 billion. Australia has announced a new aid package valued at $74 million, which includes twenty-eight M113 armored vehicles, fourteen special purpose vehicles, twenty-eight MAN 40M medium trucks, and fourteen trailers, as well as 105mm artillery ammunition. The U.S. is expected to announce a military aid package worth around $500 million, which will likely include Bradley and Stryker IFVs.

In response to questions about the [“Wagner” PMC] mutiny, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov provided a vague response, stating that government agencies are currently investigating the matter without specifying any individuals involved. It is worth noting that the Russian government has a history of spreading conspiracy theories and often blames the West for negative events in Russia. Following a humiliating weekend, Putin’s minions are now seeking to assert their importance and competence in “protecting” the state.  “When U.S. Ambassador Tracy spoke with Russian representatives yesterday, she gave signals. These signals were primarily that the United States had nothing to do with it, that the United States very much hopes that nuclear weapons will be in order, that American diplomats will not suffer,” Russia’s Foreign Minister added.

“We made clear that we were not involved. We had nothing to do with it. This was part of a struggle within the Russian system,” Joe Biden stated.

“We’re going to keep assessing the fallout of this weekend’s events and the implications for Russia and Ukraine, but it’s still too early to reach a definitive conclusion about where this is going,” Joe Biden stated. U.K. PM Rishi Sunak mirrored the statement by saying “It’s too early to predict with certainty what the consequences of this [recent developments in Russia] might be, but of course, we are prepared, as we always would be, for a range of scenarios.” U.K. Foreign Secretary James Cleverly remarked that Prigozhin rebellion poses an unprecedented challenge. German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock highlighted the devastating consequences of the Russian war of aggression and noted that cracks are appearing in Putin’s system of power, with the Russian rulers increasingly undermining themselves.

Valery Golubkin, a Russian scientist, has been sentenced to 12 years in a strict regime colony for allegedly “reviling” state secrets related to a civilian plane, despite never having access to any state secrets. Meanwhile, no charges have been brought against Evgenii Prigozhin or his associates for their involvement in the destruction of valuable combat and electronic warfare helicopters, as well as a plane. This situation sends a discouraging signal to the Russian military, as mercenaries responsible for killing elite pilots and destroying valuable equipment are enjoying impunity. The commander-in-chief’s support for this criminal group over the professional military who serve the country is seen as an insult that will not be forgotten.

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