Russia’s war on Ukraine. Daily Snapshot. 27.06.2023

Snapshot of the day:

General, humanitarian:

• At least 380 Ukrainian children being victims of violent transfers to Russian families. Additionally, there have been recorded instances of Russian military personnel abducting children from temporarily occupied territories for purposes of intimidation, pressuring relatives, and gathering intelligence.
• Russian forces launched a missile strike on the popular cafe in the center of Kramatorsk. According to preliminary data, four people were killed, including a child, and 42 were injured.
• Berdyansk military administration confirmed the killing of two Ukrainian teenagers, Tigran Oganesyan and Mykyta Khanganov, by Russians on June 24th.

Military: 

• The Russian forces currently lack operational-level reserves that could be used to strengthen their defense or initiate a simultaneous offensive on multiple fronts, specifically in Bakhmut and southern Ukraine.
• Units of the 74th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 41st Army, at the cost of significant losses, advanced towards the Kreminna-Zarichne direction, approaching the Yampolivka-Torske line; however, due to a decrease in combat potential, their progress has been halted.
• “Tavriya” operational grouping continued to advance towards Pryiutne from the west, forcing the 394th motorized rifle regiment to extend its combat formations in order to cover the Pryiutne-Remivka line.
• The command of the Russian operational grouping “Vostok ” and the 58th Army have reassessed the status of the Berdyansk direction, now considering it secondary compared to the Melitopol direction, which has been deemed the main focus.
• The enemy command is uncertain about its ability to retain control of the Staromayorske-Urozhaine area in the near future.
• The Russian Aerospace Forces and the Black Sea Fleet recently made two unsuccessful attempts to attack the Kanatovo airfield, a crucial base for the Ukrainian Air Force’s strike aviation. The goal was to impair the Ukrainian Air Force’s capabilities and disrupt the Russian logistics system in southern Ukraine.
• Possible operation situation developments: 
• The Defense Forces will maintain active offensive and defensive operations for the next 2-3 months.
• The enemy command will attempt to encircle the Defense Forces in Avdiivka. The likely operational frontier for their offensive deployment is Vodyane-Opytne.
• The enemy has begun concentrating assault units to launch an attack towards Zolota Nyva village.

International:

• The U.S. announced a $500 million assistance package. A bipartisan group of lawmakers in the U.S. is calling on the President to provide Ukraine with cluster munitions.
• The U.S. sanctioned four companies and one individual associated with the Wagner Group, including its owner Yevgeniy Prigozhin, for their activities in Africa.
• Vladimir Putin’s acknowledgment that the Russian state and defense ministry fully financed the Wagner PMC removes any ambiguity regarding the group’s affiliation with the Russian government. This admission confirms the responsibility of the Russian government for the war crimes and crimes against humanity committed by the Wagner Group.
• Vladimir Putin and his speaker presented an “alternative” history of the recent attempt by the Wagner Group to seize power in Russia and the response from siloviki (the military, law enforcement, and intelligence structures).
• The U.N. OHCHR published a report accusing Russia of widespread torture and ill-treatment of civilian detainees.
• Ukraine prepares for a possible Russia-made nuclear disaster at the ZNPP.

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Humanitarian 

According to Dmytro Lubinets, the Ukrainian ombudsman, Ukrainian children are being held in 57 regions of Russia. Lubinets highlighted this during the presentation of a special report titled “Unfading: Violations of the Rights of Ukrainian Children in Temporarily Occupied Territories of Ukraine and in Russia: Deportation, Militarization, Indoctrination.” The Ukrainian government has documented cases of abducted Ukrainian children in various regions of Russia, with at least 380 children being victims of violent transfers to Russian families in 16 regions. Moreover, there have been recorded instances of Russian military personnel abducting children from temporarily occupied territories, aiming to intimidate, pressure relatives, and gather intelligence. Lubinets mentioned that Russian servicemen apply pressure and resort to threats of violence against children as a means to coerce adults into working for the benefit of the Russian army or occupying authorities.

The ombudsman also provided data from law enforcement agencies indicating that Russia involves minors in armed conflicts as spies, artillery adjusters, and forces them to participate in campaigns for the forced mobilization of Ukrainian citizens in temporarily occupied territories, sometimes even as actors for propaganda videos. According to Lubinets, a range of tools is used for recruiting children, such as so-called “military-patriotic camps,” membership in the Yunarmia (Youth Army), and other “military-patriotic” movements.

Russian attacks

On June 27, at around 7:30 pm, Russian forces launched a missile strike on the center of Kramatorsk, Donetsk Oblast. According to the head of the Donetsk Regional Military Administration, Pavel Kirilenko, the strike occurred near a café with a “large gathering of people.” According to preliminary data, four people were killed, including a child. Another 42 were injured. As of 10 pm, the firefighters have extinguished the fire in the building of a destroyed catering establishment, covering an area of 30 square meters.

Also, on June 27, the Russians hit a dacha cooperative near Kremenchuk, Poltava Oblast, with X-22 missiles. One child was injured. Notably, exactly one year ago, the Russian occupiers hit the “Amstor” shopping center in Kremenchuk. At that time, 22 people were killed, and another 70 were injured.

During the past day, the Russian forces shelled nine oblasts of Ukraine. 

• Russian conducted mortar shelling attacks along the border of Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts.
• During the past day, the Russian armed forces shelled 15 towns and villages of Zaporizhzhia Oblast 43 times. 37 instances of damage to residential buildings, infrastructure, and property were recorded. One person was killed and 3 injured due to the artillery shelling.
• The enemy targeted the Marhanets community and Nikopol in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast with heavy artillery. In Nikopol, 2 people were killed and 1 injured due to the enemy shelling of the industrial enterprise. 
• The enemy shelled at least 26 towns and villages of Kharkiv Oblast. 
• During the day, the [Russian] aggressors carried out 107 shelling attacks on Luhansk Oblast and 10 shelling attacks on Donetsk Oblast. One person was killed, and another was injured in Donetsk Oblast; thirteen residential buildings (including six apartment buildings), a garage, a car, a water pipeline, and road surfaces were damaged.
• The Russian aggressors carried out 55 shelling attacks (firing 264 projectiles) on Kherson Oblast, including 4 attacks (14 projectiles) on the city of Kherson. The Russians targeted areas of 21 towns and villages. Two people were injured. The House of Culture in Mykhailivka, the building of a music school in Bilozerka, and the sewage treatment plant in Kherson were damaged.

Consequences of the Kakhovka dam destruction

Three weeks after the explosion of the Kakhovka Dam, the Odesa Regional State Administration has reported that the salinity of the water in the Black Sea is starting to stabilize, and the biochemical indicators have returned to normal. However, a new problem has arisen, which is the blooming of the Black Sea caused by the influx of polluted waters carried by the currents. “Unfortunately, we are witnessing mass mortality of marine life and destruction of the flora”, as stated in the announcement. Swimming and fishing in the Black Sea are prohibited.

Occupied territories:

Berdyansk military administration confirmed the killing of two Ukrainian teenagers by Russians [occupation forces] on June 24th. Today, the parents of the deceased, Tigran Oganesyan and Mykyta Khanganov, were granted permission to see their bodies and organize a farewell ceremony. On June 24th, a distressing video surfaced on social media showing Tigran holding a rifle and saying, “That’s it, this is death, guys. Goodbye. Glory to Ukraine.” This was the last contact made by the boy. Subsequently, the human rights organization “Media Initiative for Human Rights” verified the deaths of teenagers. Russian media released a version claiming that the teenagers “opened fire with rifles” and killed a collaborator-police officer and a Russian soldier. The occupying authorities had been persecuting the boys since the autumn of 2022, and in May 2023, Tigran and Mykyta were charged under an article that carries a sentence of 10 to 20 years in prison. A Russian investigator with an armed convoy came for the boys, but they managed to escape. Ukrainian law enforcement agencies have initiated a criminal investigation into the murder of the children.

Museum experts from Kherson have identified 50 artworks stolen by Russian military personnel from the art museum, reported Ukrinform. The identification process was based on photographs from the Tavrida Central Museum in Simferopol ( occupied Crimea). The Russians unlawfully took these artworks during the occupation of Kherson. The process of identifying the stolen works is ongoing, and experts continue to refine the list of artworks that are now 100% preserved in the museum in occupied Crimea. As previously reported by Ukrinform, the Oleksiy Shovkunenko Kherson Art Museum staff has been dedicated to identifying the stolen artworks resurfacing in Crimea. It has been confirmed that the [Russian] occupiers, under the guise of “evacuation,” removed more than 11,000 artworks from the museum.

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Operational situation (as of morning June 27)

General conclusion: 

• The Defense Forces continue their offensive operation on the Bakhmut, Melitopol, and Berdyansk directions.
• The Russian forces lack operational-level reserves that could strengthen the defense or initiate a simultaneous offensive on multiple fronts, particularly in Bakhmut and in southern Ukraine.
• Units of the 74th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 41st Army, at the cost of significant losses, managed to advance towards the Kreminna-Zarichne direction, approaching the Yampolivka-Torske line, but they have suffered a loss of combat potential and halted their progress.
• Units of Ukraine’s “Tavriya” operational grouping continue to advance towards Pryiutne from the west, forcing the 394th motorized rifle regiment to stretch its combat formations in order to cover the Pryiutne-Remivka line.
• The command of the Russian operational grouping “Vostok(East)” and the 58th Army has reassessed the status of the Berdyansk direction, considering it secondary compared to the Melitopol direction, which is considered the main one.
• The enemy command is uncertain whether they will be able to hold the area of Staromayorske-Urozhaine in the short term.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

• There were over 38 combat clashes on various fronts.
• On the Kupyansk direction, the enemy carried out unsuccessful offensive actions towards Stelmakhivka and Kryvoshiivka. 
• On the Lyman direction, the enemy, using the forces of the 7th motorized rifle regiment (part of the 18th motorized rifle division of the 11th Army Corps of the Baltic Fleet), attempted to advance towards Berestove but failed to break through the Svatove-Kreminna road and retreated to their initial positions. The enemy conducted attacks near Kreminna, repelling two offensives by Defense Forces units near Spirne. They also initiated another series of attacks to reach the Zherebets River line and displace Defense Forces units from the Bilohorivka area. The enemy, using the forces of the 3rd battalion of the 123rd separate motorized rifle brigade (of the 1st Army Corps of the 8th Army), attempted to attack the left flank of the Defense Forces tactical group towards Bilohorivka-Vesele but were compelled to withdraw to Yakovlivka, losing two positions in the process. The Defense Forces made advancement gaining approximately 1 km of territory.
• On the Bakhmut direction, the enemy conducted unsuccessful offensive operations towards Bohdanivka, near Ivanivske, Mynkivka, and Hryhorivka. In the region of Serebryansk forestry, the enemy deployed one battalion from the 237th air assault regiment( which is part of the 76th Air assault division). They made unsuccessful attempts to attack along the left bank of the Siversky Donets River towards Hryhorivka.
• The Russian command is moving units of the Airborne Troops, territorial forces, BARS detachments, “Shtorm-Z,” and PMCs “Patriot,” “Fakel,” and “Veteran” to Bakhmut in order to hold the city. 
• The Defense Forces have successfully eliminated the Russian bridgehead located on the western bank of the Siversky Donets-Donbas canal. Units of the Ukrainian 5th separate assault brigade and the 24th separate assault battalion “Aydar” have advanced 1 km in Klishchiivka and Kurdyumivka areas. Units of the 57th separate motorized rifle brigade are advancing between Berkhivka and Yahidne. Units of Ukraine’s 28th separate mechanized brigade and the 104th brigade of the Territorial Defence have advanced in the Ozaryanivka area.
• On the Avdiivka direction, enemy units of the 9th separate motorized rifle brigade, with support from the 14th artillery brigade of the 1st Army Corps, carried out unsuccessful offensive actions towards Pervomaiske. Units of the 150th motorized rifle division of the 8th Army achieved limited success in the areas of Maryinka and Novomykhailivka.
• The 11th separate motorized infantry brigade of the Defense Forces successfully attacked the positions of the enemy’s 9th separate marines regiment and the “Somali” separate assault battalion, pushing them back to the southeastern outskirts of Pisky.
• On the Shakhtarsk direction, units of the 31st separate mechanized brigade of the Defense Forces liberated Rivnopil in Donetsk Oblast. 
• On the Zaporizhzhia direction, the Defense Forces launched attacks towards Levadne-Rivnopil-Makarivka, Pryiutne-Staromayorske, and near Novodonetsk.
• Units of the 291st motorized rifle regiment (of the 42nd motorized rifle division, the 58th Army of the Southern Military District) repelled an attack by units of the Ukrainian “Tavriya” operational grouping near Robotyne.
• Units of the 394th motorized rifle regiment were forced to withdraw from Rivnopil to the south, taking up new positions along the chain of ponds west of Staromayorske.
• Enemy forces persist in launching futile counterattacks in the Makarivka direction. The recent counterattack by the 136th separate motorized rifle brigade, deployed between the combat formations of the 394th motorized rifle regiment and the 60th separate motorized rifle brigade, proved ineffective. As a result, the brigade was forced to retreat to Zavitne Bazhannia village.
• The Defense Forces maintain their position and control over the bridgehead near Antonivskyi Bridge in Kherson Oblast. They have made progress towards the outskirts of Oleshky and successfully gained control over the cottage area, engaging in battles along the coastline near Hola Prystan. The enemy’s attempts, led by units of the 205th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 58th Army and the 108th air assault regiment of the 7th air assault division, to remove the Defense Forces from the bridgehead near Antonivskyi Bridge have been thwarted and repelled. 

Change in enemy disposition: 

• In the Makarivka area, the 60th separate motorized rifle brigade (the 5th Army of the Eastern Military District) and units of the 136th separate motorized rifle brigade (the 58th Army of the Southern Military District) are operating. 
• The 74th separate motorized rifle brigade (the 41st Army) in the Yampolivka-Torske area received reinforcements consisting of three companies from the 1452nd motorized rifle regiment of the Territorial Defense Forces. 
• On both flanks of Zavitne Bazhannia village, units of the 136th separate motorized rifle brigade are deploying, which serves as the operational reserve of the 58th Army.

Escalation Indicators:

• The Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation met with the Commander of the Western Military District of the Russian Armed Forces, Lieutenant General E. Nikiforov, and tasked him with preventing the advancement of Ukrainian forces. 
• The Russian Aerospace Forces and the ships of the Black Sea Fleet made two unsuccessful attempts within in the span of two days to attack the Kanatovo airfield, which serves as the forward operating base for the Ukrainian Air Force’s strike aviation that uses Storm Shadow and SCALP missiles. These attacks aimed to hinder the Ukrainian Air Force’s capability and prevent further damage to the Russian logistics system in southern Ukraine.
• The Russian Aerospace Forces are attempting to destroy the dam in Kryvyi Rih through missile and air strikes to cause a man-made catastrophe.

Possible operation situation developments: 

• The Defense Forces will continue the offensive in the directions of Polohy-Berdyansk, Velyka Novosilka-Berdyansk, Orikhiv-Melitopol, and part of the forces will focus on Tokmak.
• The Defense Forces will maintain active offensive and defensive operations for the next 2-3 months.
• The enemy command will attempt to encircle the Defense Forces in Avdiivka by intensifying attacks in the directions of Krasnohorivka-Stepove and Vodyane-Tonenke, aiming to break through to the area of Berdychi-Lastochkine-Orlyivka-Semenivka and encircle the entire Defense Forces’ grouping in the Avdiivka area. The likely operational frontier for their offensive deployment is Vodyane-Opytne.
• The enemy, with the aim of launching an attack towards Zolota Nyva village, has begun concentrating assault units in the area of Kermenchyk-Novodonetske. It is expected that units from the 40th separate marines brigade will be involved in this counterattack, deployed from their positions northwest of Novomayorske. 
• In the northern part of Luhansk Oblast, around the Siversky ledge and on the Svatove direction, the enemy will continue active offensive actions in certain areas and directions, seeking to improve their tactical position.
• The Russian “Center” and “South” operational groupings are planning to stabilize their northern flank in the Bakhmut area by launching active attacks from the southeast direction towards Bilohorivka. Their objective is to displace the units of the Defense Forces from the area that poses a threat to the western outskirts of Lysychansk. They will also rearrange their tactical reserves from the Lyman and Kupyansk directions to the southern part of the Siversky Ledge to ensure their defense’s resilience. This reinforcement will involve a battalion from the 31st separate airborne assault brigade from the Lyman direction and the 1428th motorized rifle regiment of the Territorial Defense Forces from the Kupyansk direction.
• The Kremlin has removed Colonel General S. Rudsky, Chief of the Main Operational Directorate of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, Colonel General Ye. Burdinsky, Chief of the Main Organizational-Mobilization Directorate of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, and Lieutenant General I. Buvaltsev, Chief of the Main Combat Training Directorate of the Russian Armed Forces.

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area: 

• As of June 27, there were 4 enemy ships in the sea. They patrolled areas near the Crimean Bridge and the coast of the Taman Peninsula. None of them were equipped with Kalibr missiles. One ship is located in the Azov Sea, approaching the Crimean Bridge. 
• The enemy’s aviation continues flights over the sea from Crimean airfields such as Belbek, Saky, Dzhankoy, and Hvardiyske. Six fighter aircraft were involved in monitoring the surface and air situation in the northwestern part of the Black Sea waters. Two Su-27/30 (Belbek), two Su-24MR, and two MiG-29 UK (Saky) were deployed from the airfields in Saky and Belbek.
• Air situation control and operational-tactical aviation management over the Azov Sea were carried out by A-50U Airborne Early Warning and Control (AEW&C) aircraft. 
• In the territory of the United Kingdom, a series of “Sea Breeze 2023” exercises have begun. The main objective of the exercise series is to prepare for planning and conducting mine countermeasure operations. The primary focus is on the training of the tactical group staff for mine countermeasure planning and operations in accordance with NATO standards and procedures, using the weaponry and military equipment provided by partner countries to the Ukrainian Navy. Equally important is the preparation of the Ukrainian Navy’s Sandown-class minesweepers “Cherkasy” and “Chernihiv,” as well as the groups of underwater mine clearance and underwater unmanned vehicles, for conducting mine countermeasure operations as part of tactical groups.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 27.06.23 

Personnel – almost 226,170 people (+590);

Tanks – 4,036 (+5);

Armored combat vehicles – 7,834 (+14);

Artillery systems – 4,083 (+28);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 626 (+2);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 386 (+1);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 6,772 (+21);

Aircraft – 314 (0);

Helicopters – 308(0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 3,492 (+10);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,261 (+2);

Boats/ships – 18 (0).

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Ukraine, general news

According to the Kyiv School of Economics, the Russians have destroyed approximately 8% of Ukraine’s housing stock, causing damages worth $54 billion. Out of the total amount, $46.6 billion is attributed to the destruction and damage of multi-apartment buildings, while over $7 billion is attributed to the destruction and damage of private houses.

68% of Ukrainians consider the central government of Ukraine to be effective, according to the “Rating” group study “Resilience during War and in the Post-War Period: What Ukrainians Rely On,” as reported by Ukrinform. According to the survey results, among the priorities that local authorities should primarily focus their efforts on are combating corruption (51%), solving economic and communal problems (34%), supporting the army (32%), reconstructing damaged infrastructure (25%), creating bomb shelters and shelters (21%), assisting refugees and internally displaced persons (18%), supporting small and medium-sized businesses (17%), improving conditions for preschool and secondary education (14%), ensuring social protection of the population (12%), transparency of government work (11%), and ecology (9%).

International:

The U.S. announced a $500 million assistance package for Ukraine, which includes additional missiles for Patriot air defense systems, HIMARS rockets, HARMs missiles, antiarmor missiles, thirty Bradley IFVs, twenty-five Striker APCs, and more. This aid is part of the Biden Administration’s ongoing support for Ukraine, which has totaled over $40.5 billion since the start of the invasion. Czechia delivered twenty-four tanks, seventy-six IFVs, 645 anti-tank guided missiles, and other aid to Ukraine in the first five months of the year, Prime Minister Petr Fiala stated. 

A bipartisan group of lawmakers in the U.S. is calling on the President to provide Ukraine with cluster munitions (DPICM) to aid in their defense efforts against the Russian-backed forces. The Netherlands and Denmark have ordered fourteen Leopard 2 MBTs for Ukraine, according to a spokesperson from Rheinmetall.

In response to the actions of the so-called Wagner PMC, the U.S. has imposed sanctions on four companies and one individual associated with the group, including its owner Yevgeniy Prigozhin. These entities, located in the Central African Republic, United Arab Emirates, and Russia, have been involved in illicit gold dealings to fund the Wagner Group’s operations in Ukraine and Africa. Yevgeniy Prigozhin himself has also received substantial financial support from the Russian state.

Vladimir Putin has acknowledged that the Wagner Private Military Company was fully financed by the Russian state and defense ministry. Yevgeny Prigozhin had received about $938 million from the state as well. This admission eliminates any uncertainty regarding the group’s affiliation with the Russian government, which bears responsibility for the war crimes and crimes against humanity committed by the Wagner Group. Combined with previous admissions made by Yevgeny Prigozhin himself, there should be no doubt that in Crimea and Donbas, the Russian state engaged in a hybrid war using proxy forces and entities, with actors attempting to appear independent of the Kremlin.

“The level of consolidation demonstrated by society, political parties, the military, our servicemen, civil society representatives, religious leaders, believers, and others around the president is very high,” Putin’s spokesperson stated after quite a long pause and shock triggered by the Wagner “Marche of Justice,” that likely could have been lethal for the Putin’s regime. “These events only showcased the strength of the level of unity within society around the president,” Dmitry Peskov added. “You defended the constitution, the lives, and the freedom of our citizens. You saved our homeland from being shaken up, in actual fact… you virtually stopped a civil war,” Putin himself told the military personnel. He prized the military for “virtually stopping a civil war.” “In a difficult situation, you acted clearly, in a well-coordinated manner, by deed you proved your loyalty to the people of Russia and to the military oath, you showed responsibility for the fate of the Motherland and its future,” Russia’s leader presented an alternative history of the recent events.

The U.N. Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights has published a report accusing Russia of widespread torture and ill-treatment of civilian detainees. According to the report, seventy-seven out of 864 Ukrainian civilians were executed by Russian forces in the first ten months of the invasion. The OHCHR documented the detention of 260 civilians based on their perceived political views or legitimate exercise of freedom of expression.

“All medical supplies have been prepared, and logistical routes where people will be accommodated and how they will be transported have been worked out. In the event of such a situation, not only state mechanisms will be involved, but also volunteer groups,” Ukraine’s ombudsman stated about a possible accident made by Russia at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. Contingency planning includes separate evacuation headquarters in the neighboring oblasts and evacuation of residents within a 30-50 kilometer radius around the ZNPP.

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