Russia’s war on Ukraine. Daily Snapshot. 29.06.2023

Snapshot of the day:

General, humanitarian:

• The absolute majority of Ukrainians (78%) have close relatives or friends who were injured or killed due to the Russian invasion;
• President Zelensky: the lack of strong reaction from the European countries to the Kakhovka dam destruction may embolden Russia regarding the Zaporizhzhia NPP;
• Russia uses flooding for defense purposes near occupied Tokmak, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, on the eve of Ukraine’s counteroffensive;
• As a result of the Russian shelling, 8 people were killed and 9 more were injured over the past day. 9 Ukrainian regions came under Russian attacks;
• Ukroboronprom state concern has been transformed into the joint-stock company “Ukrainian Defense Industry” today;
• The first constituent meeting of the newly created international working group on Russian environmental crimes took place. Ukraine investigates about 200 cases seeking to bring Russia to justice for the ecocide.

Military:

• Ukrainian Defense Forces continue the offensive operation in the Bakhmut, Melitopol and Berdyansk areas;
• In the Melitopol direction, the Russian military has failed to stop the advance of the advanced units of the “Tavriysk” Operational Grouping in the southern direction and its tactical situation is deteriorating;
• Units of the Russian 503rd motorized rifle regiment of the 19th motorized rifle division, in defense posture in the area of Nesteryanka, found themselves in semi-encirclement;
• Russian forces failed to stop the advance of the “Tavriysk” Operational Grouping in the area of Pyatykhatky.
• Maritime traffic between the Russian Federation and Iran in the Caspian Sea has increased significantly;
• Possible operational situation development
• In the northern part of Luhansk Oblast around the Siversky ledge and in the Svatove direction, Russian forces will continue active offensive actions in separate areas and directions, trying to improve their tactical position;
• The Russian command is preparing to carry out counterattacks in the Melitopol and Berdyansk directions.

International:

• Ukraine, Canada, Sweden, and the U.K. are filing a lawsuit at the International Court of Justice over the downing of a Ukrainian airliner PS752 in January 2020.
• While visiting Kyiv, former Vice President and Republican presidential candidate Mike Pence said that Ukraine needs to win the war, for its people are “fighting for their freedom and fighting to restore their national sovereignty.”
• The review of the IMF program of expanded financing will allow Ukraine to receive a new tranche of $890 million in assistance.
• Despite rumors, the U.S. hasn’t made its mind to provide Ukraine with ATACMS.
• Ukraine has conducted nuclear disaster response drills in the vicinity of the ZNPP.

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Humanitarian

Before the Ukrainian offensive, Russia built a makeshift dam and caused flooding on the outskirts of occupied Tokmak, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Bellingcat reported citing Planet Labs satellite images. The makeshift dam is built within the defensive line surrounding Tokmak, which in turn is behind several other defensive lines. The dam was built in early May.

Russian attacks

As a result of the Russian shelling, 8 people were killed and 9 more were injured over the past day. 9 Ukrainian regions came under Russian attacks.

• In Chernihiv Oblast, Novgorod-Siversky district was shelled 4 times with mortars and artillery. No victims or destruction were reported.
• At night and in the morning, the enemy launched 3 mortar attacks (13 explosions) in Sumy Oblast. 3 communities came under fire. On Wednesday, during the day, the Russians carried out 7 shelling of the border areas. 36 explosions were recorded. No consequences.
• Zaporizhzhya Oblast: at night, the enemy attacked the outskirts of the regional center with a missile strike and carried out 67 artillery strikes on towns and villages. A 62-year-old woman was wounded by the artillery shelling of Orikhiv. During the day, Russian troops carried out 71 attacks on 18 settlements of the Zaporizhzhia Oblast. At least 51 reports were filed about the destruction of residential buildings, commercial buildings, and educational institutions.
• Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: With heavy artillery, the aggressor hit Nikopol and Myrivska communities. Late in the evening, the Russian army struck the Chervonohryhorivka community of the Nikopol district. The enemy fired heavy artillery again.
• Kharkiv Oblast: last night the enemy attacked Chuhuyiv with S-300 missiles. Residential buildings and cars were damaged. On Wednesday, the Russian forces shelled Kyrylivka village in the Kupyansk district with “Uragan” anti-aircraft missiles. A 70-year-old woman was seriously injured. 3 people died in Vovchanski Khutory Chuhuivske. In the Kupyansk direction, more than 20 towns and villages were hit by Russian artillery and mortar attacks.
• Luhansk Oblast: Russian forces  fired 123 shots (544 shells). No victims were reported.
• Donetsk Oblast: the Russians shelled 12 villages. 8 residential buildings (2 of them multi-apartment buildings), power lines, and a bank building were damaged. 4 people died, 2 were wounded.
• Mykolaiv Oblast: on Wednesday, during the day, the enemy fired artillery at the water area of Ochakiv community. During the day, Ochakiv was shelled.
• Kherson Oblast: Russian forces fired 64 rounds (342 shells), including 3 rounds (12 shells) into the city of Kherson. The Russians targeted the districts of 23 towns and villages in the region. Three people were injured. Regional prosecutor’s office reported on the morning shelling of the Kherson region that killed one person and injured another one.

Occupied territories

The National Resistance Center of the Ukrainian MOD reports that the occupation authorities often detain children who visit Ukrainian web sites, demonstrate their pro-Ukrainian position at school and argue with teachers. Their parents are threatened with deprivation of parental rights. Advisers to school principals on issues of ideology serve as the informants of the Russian security services. The position was introduced at schools in temporary occupied territories; these positions are filled with Russian nationals.

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Operational situation (as of morning 29.06)

General conclusion:

       Ukrainian Defense Forces continue the offensive operation in the Bakhmut, Melitopol and Berdyansk areas;

       In the Melitopol direction, the Russian military has failed to stop the advance of the advanced units of the “Tavriysk” Operational Grouping in the southern direction and its tactical situation is deteriorating. The advancement speed of the “Tavriysk” Grouping on the line is increasing;

       Units of the Russian 503rd motorized rifle regiment of the 19th motorized rifle division, defending in the area of Nesteryanka, found themselves in semi-encirclement;

       Russian forces failed to stop the advance of the “Tavriysk” Operational Grouping in the area of Pyatykhatky, where the Ukrainian units successfully bypassed Zherebyanka and advanced from the east in the direction of the Hrozove – Dolynka – Myrne – Nesteryanka line in the area where the remnants of the “Storm-Ossetia” battalion are defending.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

●      Over 40 combat clashes took place on different fronts.

●      In the Lyman direction, Russian forces launched an unsuccessful attack near Bilohorivka, achieved tactical success near Kreminna, and repelled attacks of the Ukrainian Defense Forces near Kuzmyne, Hryhorivka, and Vesele.

●      In the Bakhmut direction, Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive actions in the area of Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Bohdanivka and Bila Hora. They repulsed the attacks of the Ukrainian Defense Forces near Vasyukivka and Rozdolivka, and advanced west from Dubovo-Vasylivka. Units of the 106th airborne division of the Russian Armed Forces repelled an attack by the Ukrainian Defense Forces near Soledar.

●      Units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces advanced to the north of Orikhovo-Vasylivka, near Klishchiivka, attacked in the areas of Rozdolivka, Zaliznyanske, Paraskoviivka, and Kurdyumivka. Attacks near Berkhivka did not succeed.

●      In the Avdiivka direction, Russian forces attacked unsuccessfully in the area of Avdiivka, Severne, Maryinka, Pobieda, Pervomaiske, and Novomykhailivka. Their assault to the south of Maryinka from captured positions in the Zverynetsky fortified district continues.

●      In the Zaporizhzhia direction, Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensives near Rivnopil.

●      The troops of the “Tavriysk” Operational Grouping attacked in the direction of Staromayorske, captured new positions along the Rivnopil – Staromayorske line, advanced in the direction of Pryiutne, attacked southeast of Orikhiv near Luhivske and in the direction of Robotyne. They are advancing in the direction of Pyatykhatky – Zherebyanka, where they are opposed by the 429th motorized rifle regiment (the 19th motorized rifle division of the 58th Army), the 810th separate marines brigade of the Black Sea Fleet, the 23rd “Sudoplatov” BARS detachment and the “Storm-Ossetia” battalion. Advanced units of the “Tavriysk” Operational Grouping in the Melitopol direction have advanced to the depth from 2.7 to 3.3 km.

●      The 291st Russian motorized rifle regiment of the 42nd motorized rifle division continued its withdrawal in the area of Robotyne, trying to stop the advance of the “Tavriysk” Grouping to the north and north-west of the village. The advanced units of the “Tavriysk” Grouping, pushing the enemy’s 70th motorized rifle regiment, almost came close to the main Russian line of defense in the area of Verbove. The command of the Russian troops brought into battle in this area additional units of the 22^nd and 45th separate SOF brigades, 3rd BARS detachment, the 417th separate reconnaissance battalion of the 42nd motorized rifle division of the 58th Army holds the village of Verbove.

Change in enemy disposition:

• The Russian “Vostok” troop grouping operates in the Southern operational zone in the Melitopol, Berdyansk, and Mariupol areas of operation. It consists of approximately 92,000 servicemen, 365 tanks, around 1,150 armored combat vehicles, up to 900 artillery pieces, mortars, and multiple rocket launchers, as well as 12 missile launcher units. The approximate distribution of forces by directions is as follows:
• Novopavlivka direction: brigades – 11, regiments – 13 (including 8 territorial troops and mobilization reserve), battalions – 6 (“volunteer” formations).
• Orikhiv direction: brigades – 5, regiments – 13 (including territorial troops – 7), battalions – 17 (of which BARS detachments – 12).
• The reserve of the grouping consists of 1 motorized rifle regiment of the territorial troops.
• A reserve of personnel and military equipment with a 24-hour readiness period has been formed to replenish the losses in the “Vostok” troop grouping. The reserve has up to 3,500 personnel, 12-15 tanks, up to 130 armored combat vehicles, up to 50 artillery systems.
• Units of the 7th air assault division of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation operate in the Oleshky area.
• In the village of Tsel of the Osypovytsky district of the Minsk Oblast of the Republic of Belarus the repair of the former military residence of the 22nd missile brigade of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus has started. Presumably, the facilities are being prepared to accommodate up to 1,500 fighters of the “Wagner” PMC.

Escalation indicators:

• Commander of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, Colonel-General M. Teplinsky, took over the duties of the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in Ukraine from the Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, Army General V. Gerasimov (information needs to be verified).
• Maritime traffic between the Russian Federation and Iran in the Caspian Sea has increased significantly.

Possible operation situation developments:

• Ukrainian Defense Forces will develop an offensive in the direction of Polohy – Berdyansk; Velyka Novosilka – Berdyansk; Orikhiv – Melitopol and part of the forces – toward Tokmak;
• Ukrainian Defense forces will continue active offensive and defensive actions for the next 2-3 months;
• In the northern part of Luhansk Oblast around the Siversky ledge and in the Svatove direction, Russian forces will continue active offensive actions in separate areas and directions, trying to improve their tactical position;
• The Russian command is preparing to carry out counterattacks in the Melitopol and Berdyansk directions. For this purpose it deploys the 810th separate marines brigade of the Black Sea Fleet on the Verkhnya Krynytsia – Lisne line for a counterattack from the Kamianske – Luhove line in the direction of Lobkove, and the 336th separate marines brigade of the Baltic Fleet on the Priyutine – Remivka line for a counterattack from the Stepove – Novoukrainske line in the direction of Levadne.

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:

• As of June 29, there were 5 Russian ships at sea. They patrol the areas near the Kerch Strait Bridge and along the coast of the Taman Peninsula. There is one Kalibr missile carrier among them. It has up to 8 missiles on board.
• Two ships are in the Sea of Azov. One of them is on patrol near the Kerch Strait bridge.
• Russian aviation continues to fly from the Crimean airfields of Belbek, Saky, Dzhankoy and Hvardiyske over the sea. Six fighter aircraft from Belbek and Saki Air Force Bases were involved in monitoring the surface and air conditions in the northwestern part of the Black Sea, namely two Su-27/30 (BELBEK), two Su-24MR and two Mig-29 UK (SAKI).
• The control of the air situation and the management of operational-tactical aviation over the waters of the Sea of Azov was carried out by the A-50U Airborne Early Warning and Control (AEW&C) aircraft.
• Between June 21 and 25, as part of the “International Naval Salon” (MBMC-2023) in Kronstadt, Russian Federation, the “Tactical Missile Arms” corporation showcased the latest models of purportedly modern Russian naval weapons. These weapons were developed by various organizations, including the “Raduga” State Design Bureau named after A. Ya. Bereznyak, state research and production enterprise “Region,” military production complex “NVO Mashstroy,” Concern “Marine Underwater Weapons – Hydro-Pribor,” and Concern “Granit-Electron.” However, many of these weapons are actually modified versions of weapons from the 1970s and 1980s, and some samples are conceptual replicas of Western weapons.
• The range of aviation weapons includes anti-ship missiles Kh-31AD (developed in 1977, in service since 1989) and Kh-35UE (a conceptual copy of the Harpoon missile, developed since 1977: in service since 1999), air-to-surface missiles » Kh-59MK and Kh-59M2E (developed since 1975, in service since 1980), which are equipped with the “Ovod-ME” missile weapons complex.
• To protect the coastal infrastructure, coastal missile complexes Bastion with anti-ship cruise missiles Yakhont (development in late 1970s) and Bal-E with Kh-35UE were demonstrated.
• To equip warships and submarines, the Russian Tactical Missiles Corporation presents a number of universal self-guided torpedoes. In particular, the UGST deep-sea torpedo (developed in 1986) will be a part of the exposition.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 29.06.23

Personnel – almost 227,780   people (+680);

Tanks – 4,038 (+2);

Armored combat vehicles – 7,857 (+10);

Artillery systems – 4,116 (+27);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 627 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 388 (+1);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 6,780 (+6);

Aircraft – 315 (+1);

Helicopters – 308 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 3,513 (+14);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,261 (0);

Boats/ships – 18 (0)

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Ukraine, general news

According to a sociological survey conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology from May 26 to June 5, 2023, the overwhelming majority of Ukrainians, 78%, have close relatives or friends who have been injured or killed as a result of the Russian invasion. On average, individuals with such connections have 7 close relatives or friends who have been injured or killed. Additionally, 64% of Ukrainians have at least one close relative or friend who has been injured, with an average of 5 injured close individuals per respondent. Furthermore, 63% of Ukrainians have at least one close relative or friend who has died, with an average of 3 deceased close individuals per respondent.

Oleksandr Kamyshyn, the Minister of Strategic Industry, announced that the Ukroboronprom state concern has officially undergone transformation and has become the joint-stock company “Ukrainian Defense Industry.” The next phase will involve the transfer of personnel and assets, followed by further transformational measures. Subsequently, a Supervisory Board will be established in accordance with the standards set by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).

The President Volodymyr Zelensky is convinced that if there is no strong reaction from the European leaders and countries to the crime of the Russian Federation at the Kakhovka HPP, this may increase the audacity of the Russian terrorists regarding the Zaporizhzhya NPP. “And in any case, it is destructive when Russia uses the nuclear power plant for radiation blackmail and at the same time discusses with EU member states the construction of new nuclear units. How can you trust a terrorist with the construction of nuclear blocks?” the head of state emphasized this while speaking at a meeting of the European Council.

Today, the first constituent meeting of the newly created international working group on Russian environmental crimes took place. According to the co-chairman of the working group, the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Andriy Yermak, the task of the working group should be three things: assessment of Russia’s crimes, development of certain mechanisms to hold the Russian Federation accountable for all these crimes, and restoration of Ukraine’s ecosystem.

“Combating ecocide is one of the points of the Ukrainian peace formula, and we must implement each of its points, all aspects of peace,” Ukraine’s President told the International Working Group on the Environmental Consequences of War. The Group includes Greta Thunberg, former Swedish foreign minister Margot Wallström, Vice-President of the European Parliament Heidi Gautala, and former Irish President Mary Robinson. Ukraine is investigating over 200 war crimes against the environment and fifteen ecocide cases, according to the Prosecutor General’s Office. A third of the country’s territory (174,000 square km) is mined, and over 2.4 million hectares of forests have been damaged.

International:

Ukraine, Canada, Sweden, and the U.K. are filing a lawsuit at the International Court of Justice over the downing of a Ukrainian airliner three years ago, Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry announced. Iran is guilty of downing a Ukraine International Airlines Flight PS752 with two missiles while it was taking off in Tehran on January 8, 2020. The crime claimed the lives of 176 passengers. Since no agreement was reached between Iran and the Coordination Group about arbitration under the Convention for the Suppression of Unlawful Acts Against the Safety of Civil Aviation, the Group will continue its collective efforts to ensure that Iran is held accountable for the illegal downing of the plain.

“I know the difference between a genius and a war criminal, and I know who needs to win this war in Ukraine, and it’s the people fighting for their freedom and fighting to restore their national sovereignty. There is no room in our party for apologists for Putin. There is only room for champions of freedom,” former Vice President and Republican presidential candidate Mike Pence said while in Kyiv on a surprise visit. Mike Pence travelled to Bucha and Irpin, places in the capital’s suburbs where Russians committed unimaginable atrocities, and met families and children impacted by the war.

The review of the IMF program of expanded financing will allow Ukraine to receive a new tranche of $890 million in assistance. “Despite the war, the economy has been showing more resilience than expected following a sharp contraction in 2022. GDP growth has been upgraded to 1–3 percent in 2023 as domestic demand recovers, inflation is decelerating, and F.X. reserves are strong amid a stable F.X. market. Overall, macroeconomic and financial stability has been maintained, thanks to prudent policymaking as well as continuous and timely external support,” the IMF’s statement reads.

“I’m not aware of any imminent decisions as it relates to ATACMS,” Pentagon Press Secretary answered the question of whether the Administration was coming closer to approving ATACMS for Ukraine as had been reported by the WSJ.

Ukraine has conducted nuclear disaster response drills in the vicinity of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power station, illegally occupied by Russia. “We do not intend to blow up this NPP; we have no intention of doing so,” Russia’s envoy to the U.N. traditionally lied.

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