Russia’s war on Ukraine. Daily Snapshot. 30.06.2023

Snapshot of the day:

General, humanitarian:

• Russian attacks were recorded in 9 Ukrainian Oblasts. 5 civilians were killed and 7 were injured over the past day;
• Russian occupiers are downsizing their presence at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant;
• Locations of 19,498 children abducted from Ukraine to the temporarily occupied territory of Ukraine or to the territory of the Russian Federation are verified;
• Russian families have adopted 365 Ukrainian children;
• A meeting of the Staff of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief decided to reinforce the northern (Belarus) direction.
• Russian terrorist attack on the Kakhovka dam caused Ukraine at least 2 billion dollars in direct losses – KSE Institute.

Military:

• Ukrainian Defense Forces continue the offensive operation in the Melitopol and Berdyansk directions. They intensified offensive actions in the Bakhmut area and achieved certain successes. An offensive is developing in the direction of Soledar and Krasna Hora;
• The situation in the Lyman direction continues to deteriorate. The command of the Russian troops decided to dislodge Ukrainian Defense Forces from the area of Bilohorivka at any cost;
• Russian forces are making efforts to “cut off” the operationally most threatening “top” of the Siversky ledge;
• Russian troops build up their presence in Armyansk to protect key infrastructure facilities in the north of Crimea; a large number of the Russian FSB officers are located in this area.
• The “Wagner” PMC continues to recruit militants throughout Russia to fight in Ukraine.
• Possible operational situation development
• The Russian command will try to stabilize the situation on the flanks of its Bakhmut group by bringing the 11th and 31st separate airborne assault brigades concentrated in this area into operation;
• The 1428th motorized rifle regiment of the territorial troops has completed the restoration of its combat capability. It will probably be put into operation north of Bakhmut from the line west of Pidhorodnie.
• The overwhelming majority of Ukrainians (87%) remain positive about the country’s future; almost all Ukrainians (92%) formulate victory as the restoration of the country’s sovereignty and territorial integrity; two-thirds of Ukrainians are against negotiations with Russia; 89% of Ukrainians support the country’s membership in NATO.

International:

• Russians may have planned a sabotage attack at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant after July 5.
• Ukraine is determined to show good results on the battlefield before the Vilnius summit. General Valery Zaluzhny explains why it’s not feasible to expect a speedy counteroffensive without additional weapons supply, including the Western jets. General Mark Milley confirms that it’s not easy for Ukrainians to advance.
• Denmark will provide Ukraine with a military package worth $190 million. It includes air defense missiles and funds for the purchase of artillery ammunition.
• Hungary blocks a $55 billion worth of assistance to Ukraine under the E.U. four-year financial assistance package.

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Humanitarian

Russian invaders continue to abduct Ukrainian children from the temporarily occupied territories of Kherson Oblast, falsely claiming to take them on vacation to the Russian Federation. According to Yuriy Sobolevsky, the First Deputy Chairman of the Kherson Oblast Council, an additional 185 children have been recently taken to Russia.

According to Dmytro Lubinets, the Human Rights Commissioner of the Verkhovna Rada, the whereabouts of 19,498 abducted children from Ukraine to the temporarily occupied territory or the Russian Federation have been confirmed. Among them, 365 Ukrainian children have been [illegally] adopted by Russian families. Lubinets further revealed that Russian families receive a monthly allowance of 28,000 rubles (approximately $300-400) for each adopted Ukrainian child, while disabled children attract a higher allowance of 156,000 rubles (around $2,000). Disturbingly, Ukrainian citizens who travel to Russia with the assistance of volunteers to reclaim their children are detained and subjected to interrogations. One grandmother passed away after enduring a grueling 13-hour interrogation by the Russian FSB.

Russian attacks

On the night of June 30, Russian forces attacked Ukraine with 13 Shahed-136 kamikaze drones and 4 S-300 missiles; 10 UAVs were shot down, seven hits were recorded, the Air Force Command reported. Military and infrastructure facilities in Zaporizhzhia Oblast were attacked.

In total, over the past day, 5 civilians were killed and 7 were injured in different regions of Ukraine, 2 more people were injured due to detonation of explosive devices. Russian attacks were recorded in 9 Ukrainian Oblasts.

Occupied territories

According to the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense (GUR), the Russian occupiers are reducing their presence at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. Three employees from Rosatom, who were responsible for managing the Russian personnel, were among the first to leave the station. Ukrainian employees who had signed contracts with Rosatom were also advised to evacuate, with a deadline of July 5. The GUR reports that the number of military patrols is gradually decreasing within the ZNPP territory and the neighboring city of Enerhodar. They further state that the remaining personnel at the station have been instructed to shift blame onto Ukraine in the event of any emergency situations.

Meanwhile, Russian propaganda media has started promoting a narrative accusing Ukraine of allegedly preparing a terrorist attack at the Zaporizhzhia NPP. This tactic is seen as an attempt by the invaders to create an informational alibi for themselves prior to their own planned terrorist attack, according to the Center for Countering Disinformation of the National Security and Defense Council.

Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Rafael Grossi, stated in an interview with France 24 channel that the water level in the cooling pond of the ZNPP is currently only sufficient to address the immediate situation resulting from the explosion at the Kakhovka HPP. However, he expressed concern that the available amount of water would not be enough in the long term. Grossi mentioned that the management of the power plant has taken initial measures to preserve the necessary water supply but emphasized that these measures would not be sufficient in the long run.

The so-called “Ministry of Education and Science of the LPR” in the temporarily occupied territory of Luhansk Oblast has issued an order to collaborating teachers, instructing them to monitor all public entries made by students on social networks. They are tasked with identifying entries that may be associated with “extremism” or “terrorist ideology.” This information has been reported by the Luhansk Regional State Administration. It is important to note that in the occupied territories, individuals expressing pro-Ukrainian positions are unjustly accused of extremism and terrorism.

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Operational situation (as of morning 30.06.2023)

General conclusion:

• Ukrainian Defense Forces continue the offensive operation in the Melitopol and Berdyansk directions. They intensified offensive actions in the Bakhmut area and achieved certain successes, trying to seize the heights in the Klishchiivka and Berkhivka areas, which will allow them to surround the enemy in Bakhmut. An offensive is developing in the direction of Soledar and Krasna Hora;
• The Ukraine’s “Tavriysk” Operational Grouping  continues to advance in the Tavriysk direction;
• Control over Dubovo-Vasylivka and along the Andriivka-Kurdyumivka line allows both sides to develop success in the Bakhmut direction;
• The situation in the Lyman direction continues to deteriorate. The command of the Russian troops decided to dislodge Ukrainian Defense Forces from the area of Bilohorivka at any cost;
• Russian forces are making efforts to “cut off” the operationally most threatening Ukrainian “top” of the Siversky ledge reach the Serebryanka-Verkhnyokamianske line by launching simultaneous attacks from multiple directions through the Serebryansk forest on the left bank of the Siversky Donets River and displacing Defense Forces units from Bilohorivka and Hryhorivka on the right bank of the river.
• Russian troops build up their presence in Armyansk to protect key infrastructure facilities in the north of Crimea; a large number of the Russian FSB officer are located in this area.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):

• 31 combat clashes took place on different fronts.
• On the Lyman direction, Russian forces carried out unsuccessful offensive actions near Rozdolivka and Bilohorivka. Russian troops have advanced slightly near the Serebryansk Forest. The Russian military conducts offensive-assault actions in three directions at once:
• Forces of the 127th separate motorized rifle brigade (the 2nd Army Corps), units of the 98th parachute airborne regiment, the 6th detachment of BARS “Orenburg” operate on the left bank of the Siversky Donets river, bypassing the village of Bilohorivka from the northwest in the direction of Hryhorivka;
  • Part of the forces of the 127th separate motorized rifle brigade (the 2nd army corps) and the 7th BARS detachment move from the direction of Shepilivka;
  • Unidentified units of the 1st army corps, the 78th SOF motorized regiment “Akhmat-Sever” and the 16th detachment of the “Kuban Cossack” BARS are trying to advance along the road to the chalk quarry from the intersection with the T-1302 road to the village of Bilohorivka.
  • The attacks are supported by the 237th parachute airborne regiment and the 175th separate reconnaissance battalion of the 76th air assault division from the Dibrova-Kuzmyne line in the southern direction.
• On the Bakhmut direction, Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive actions in the Bakhmut area, repulsed several Ukrainian assaults near Kurdyumivka.
• Units of the Ukraine’s 3rd separate assault brigade and the 80th separate airborne assault brigade advanced 1,200 m in the direction of Klishchiivka, cleared the forest area near Klishchiivka, captured a significant number of Russian soldiers. The 28th separate mechanized brigade advanced 1,500 m in the direction of Kurdyumivka. Ukrainian Defense Forces are moving along the E -40 route near Zaliznyanske. They conducted offensive actions in the direction of Yahidne, Paraskoviivka. The 93rd separate mechanized brigade displaced Russian troops from positions on the western outskirts of Bakhmut. Units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces are fighting near Berkhivka. The units of the 57th separate mechanized infantry brigade are liberating Klishchiivka, intense fighting continues in the village.
• On the Avdiivka direction, with the support of aviation, Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive actions in the area of Avdiivka, Severne, and Novomykhailivka.
• Units of Ukraine AF’s 79th separate airborne assault brigade repulsed all enemy attacks in Maryinka and Pobieda areas. Units of the 110th separate brigade of the territorial troops advanced in the area of Kruta Balka and crossed the H20 highway.
• On the Zaporizhzhia direction, troops of the “Tavriysk” Operational Grouping advanced 1,300 m and entrenched themselves on the Rivnopil-Volodyne line, near Pryiutne, the 47th and 65th separate mechanized brigades advanced to the northern outskirts of Robotyne. The 128th separate mountain assault brigade advanced in the direction of Vasylivka near Zherebyanka and began clearing the forest massif. The 47th separate artillery brigade is successfully conducting a counter-battery fight in the Staromlynivka area, where it has suppressed enemy artillery groups.
• Russian forces repulsed the Defense Forces attacks near Pryiutne, Staromayorske, unsuccessfully attacked in the direction of Rivnopil.

Change in enemy disposition:

• Military units of the 127th motorized rifle division of the 5th Army of the Eastern Military District conduct combat operations on the Vremivka ledge.
• The Russian military command transferred units of the 11th and 31st separate airborne assault brigade of the Russian Airborne troops from the Kreminna area to the Bakhmut direction.
• The Kherson “volunteer” battalion “Vasyl Margelov”, staffed by collaborators, operates in Kherson Oblast.
• Russian PMC “Convoy” protects officials of the occupation administration of Kherson Oblast visiting the ongoing repair work on the bridge over the Chonhar.
• In order to hold Robotyne, Russian forces deployed the remnants of the 70th and 291st motorized rifle regiments, the 22nd and 45th separate SOF brigades, the 11th and 14th BARS detachments on a 7-8 km stretch. They are supported by Ka-52 helicopters and attack UAVs.
• The “Fakel”, “Potok”, “Patriot” PMC units are active in the area of Berkhivka, Yahidne and in the northern part of Bakhmut.

Escalation indicators:

Russian troops have built a dam on the outskirts of Tokmak, Zaporizhzhia Oblast and are preparing the area for flooding in order to slow down the advance of the Ukrainian Defense Forces in this direction.

Possible operation situation developments:

• Ukrainian Defense Forces will develop an offensive in the direction of Polohy – Berdyansk; Velyka Novosilka – Berdyansk; Orihiv – Melitopol and with part of the forces – to Tokmak;
• Ukrainian Defense Forces will continue active offensive and defensive actions for the next 2-3 months;
• The Russian command is preparing to carry out counterattacks in the Melitopol and Berdyansk directions. For this purpose, it deploys the 810th separate marines brigade of the Black Sea Fleet on the Verkhnya Krynytsia – Lisne line for a counterattack from the Kamianske – Luhove line in the direction of Lobkove, and the 336th separate marines brigade of the Baltic Fleet on the Priyutine – Remivka line for a counterattack from the Stepove – Novoukrainske line in the direction of Levadne.
• The Russian command plans to stabilize the situation on the flanks of its Bakhmut group by deploying the 11th and 31st separate airborne assault brigades, which are concentrated in the area.
• The 1428th motorized rifle regiment of the territorial troops has fully restored its combat capability. It is likely to be deployed north of Bakhmut, starting from the line west of Pidhorodnie. Russian forces will attempt to push back the Ukrainian Defense Forces from Berkhivka towards the reservoir and launch attacks on Defense Forces’ positions to the north of Klishchiivka in the direction of Ivanivske.

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:

• As of June 30, there were 10 Russian ships at sea. They patrolled the areas near the Kerch Strait Bridge and along the coast of the Taman Peninsula. There as one Kalibr missile carrier among them. It has up to 8 missiles on board.
• Two ships are in the Sea of Azov. One of them is on patrol near the Kerch Strait bridge.
• Russian aviation continues to operate from the airfields in Crimea, specifically Belbek, Saky, Dzhankoy, and Hvardiyske. Seven fighter aircraft from Belbek and Saki Air Force Bases were deployed for surveillance purposes in the northwestern part of the Black Sea. These included three Su-27/30 aircraft from Belbek and two Su-24MR and two Mig-29 UK aircraft from Saki.
• The A-50U Airborne Early Warning and Control aircraft were responsible for monitoring the air situation and managing operational-tactical aviation over the waters of the Sea of Azov.
• On the night of June 30, Russian forces  attacked objects in southern Ukraine from the Sea of Azov. Of the 13 Shahid-136 kamikaze drones, 10 were shot down.
• During the ongoing “Sea Breeze-2023” exercises taking place in Great Britain, the Ukrainian mine countermeasures ship “Chernihiv” participated in training exercises with combat crews, utilizing drones as part of the training process. The objective of the training was to ensure that multinational forces are prepared to conduct mine clearance operations in the Black Sea, adhering to NATO standards and procedures. The exercises involved the use of weaponry and military equipment provided to the Ukrainian Navy by partner countries
• On June 29, the training was conducted by remote underwater vehicles of the “Sea fox” type. These drones are designed to locate and identify explosive objects underwater. After equipping the drone, checking all the device’s systems and immersing it in water, the ship’s crew began the search for the exact location of the mine and its identification. The drone was controlled directly from the operating room. After being discovered the training mine was examined directly on the bottom with the help of a camera installed on the above-mentioned drone. Having recorded the location of the mine, the foreman of the mine countermeasure complex returned the drone to the ship. The next stage is the use of a drone of the “Charly” type, which must destroy the mine by blowing it up along with itself.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 30.06.23

Personnel – almost 228,340 people (+560);

Tanks – 4,041 (+3);

Armored combat vehicles – 7,863 (+6);

Artillery systems – 4,127 (+11);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 630 (+3);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 389 (+1);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 6,785 (+5);

Aircraft – 315 (0);

Helicopters – 308 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 3,519 (+6);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,261 (0);

Boats/ships – 18 (0).

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Ukraine, general news

According to the initial estimate conducted by the KSE Institute in collaboration with the Ministry of Economy and the Ministry of Reconstruction, the Russian terrorist attack on the Kakhovka dam has resulted in direct losses of at least 2 billion dollars for Ukraine. The breakdown of these losses is as follows:

• Housing sector and communal properties: Approximately 950 million dollars, which accounts for almost half of the total damages.
• Ukrainian energy industry: Around 624 million dollars, representing nearly a third of all losses. The majority of this amount, more than 90%, is attributed to the destruction of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (HPP), which had a capacity of 334.8 MW.
• Transport infrastructure: Estimated damages exceeding 300 million dollars. The assessment indicates that over 290 km of international, regional, and communal roads have been affected by the flood.

International

Russian invasion forces are gradually withdrawing from the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant and are requiring the workers who signed contracts with the Russians to do so. July 5 is a deadline for the evacuation, therefore a countdown for a possible sabotage attack, according to Ukraine’s Military Intelligence has begun. The parody account DarthPutinKGB nailed it – “the stages of western “concern:” 1 Concerned – invasion; 2 Deeply concerned – Mariupol; 3 Gravely concerned – Bucha; 4 Severely concerned – No ATACMS or F-16s; 5 Gravely & deeply concerned – Kakhovka Dam; 6 Demand answers – Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant; 7 How was this allowed to happen?”

“We have to show results before the summit, but every meter costs a life,” Volodymyr Zelensky said. For Ukraine’s counteroffensive to progress faster, Ukraine needs more of every weapon, General Valery Zaluzhny said. “While his biggest Western backers would never launch an offensive without air superiority, Ukraine still has not received modern fighter jets but is expected to rapidly take back territory from the occupying Russians,” Washington Post writes. “This [counteroffensive] is happening more slowly than people predicted. I am not surprised by this. They [Ukrainians] are advancing confidently, purposefully, making their way through very difficult minefields,” Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley said.

Though the number of Ukrainians who lost a friend or a member of a family has risen from 20% in May last year to 47%, the overwhelming majority of Ukrainians (87%) remain positive about the country’s future. Almost all Ukrainians (92%) formulate victory as the restoration of the country’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. Two-thirds of Ukrainians are against negotiations (AKA concessions) with Russia, while a third are for it. Almost all Ukrainians (94%) want Ukraine to become a fully operating democracy. Ukraine’s Armed Forces are the most trusted institution (95%). Eighty-nine percent of Ukrainians support the country’s membership in NATO. The poll was conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology at the request of the NDI.

Denmark will provide Ukraine with a military package worth $190 million. It includes air defense missiles and funds for the purchase of artillery ammunition.

“One thing is clear, we Hungarians … will not give more money to Ukraine until they say where the previous ($76 billion) worth of funds had gone,” Viktor Orban blackmailed Ukraine. Ukraine is supposed to receive $55 billion under the E.U. four-year financial assistance package. Hungary has been playing a negative role by blocking assistance and cooperation between Ukraine and the E.U., and NATO. Orban isn’t happy that Ukraine has included a Hungarian bank in a list of sponsors of Russian terrorism for still operating in Russia.

Ukraine is determined to show good results on the battlefield before the Vilnius summit. General Valery Zaluzhny explains why it’s not feasible to expect a speedy counteroffensive without additional weapons supply, including the Western jets. General Mark Milley confirms that it’s not easy for Ukrainians to advance

While Switzerland blocks weapons and ammunition supplies from third countries to Ukraine, it has sharply increased its imports of Russian-origin gold. Switzerland imported 75 tons from Russia

Russia, relevant news

Russian gas monopolist Gazprom has decided not to declare or pay final dividends for 2022. This decision was made by the general meeting of shareholders, the company reports. Analysts explained Gazprom’s decision by the fact that “the IFRS report turned out to be significantly worse than expected” and “the prospects for 2023 look increasingly worse.”

The “Wagner” PMC continues to recruit militants throughout Russia to fight in Ukraine despite Russian President Vladimir Putin’s statement about “treason” on the part of the rebels and the fear of civil war. BBC journalists found this out by calling more than a dozen recruiting centers.

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