Russia’s war on Ukraine. Daily Snapshot. 01.07.2023

Snapshot of the day:

General, humanitarian:

• Russian armed forces shelled nine regions of Ukraine over the last day. There are killed and wounded Ukrainian civilians.
• In the temporarily occupied territory of Kherson Oblast, reports from the partisan movement “Atesh” on Telegram indicate that Russian military personnel and collaborators are conducting searches, beatings, and torture of local residents. The enemy’s increased attention to Tarasivka suggests a deep concern about the activities of Ukrainian partisans in the region.
• President Volodymyr Zelensky’s stated that the situation at the Zaporizhzhia NPP is highly complex. The plant is confirmed to be mined; the number of present Russian militants is estimated to be around 500. The dangerous situation is evidenced by the plans of the RF to create an accident and release radiation to demonstrate the consequences of war. This aligns with their strategic goal of freezing the conflict to strengthen their army and ultimately wipe out Ukraine. 

Military: 

• The Defense Forces continue their offensive operation on the Melitopol and Berdyansk directions; they have intensified the offensive and achieved success in the Bakhmut area; they are attempting to seize the heights in Klishchiivka and Berkhivka areas to encircle the enemy in Bakhmut. The advance towards Soledar and Krasna Hora is ongoing.
• The Ukraine’s “Tavria” Operational Grouping continues its advance on the Tavriysk direction.
• The significance of gaining control over the Dubovo-Vasylivka village and Andriivka-Kurdyumivka line is crucial for the advancement and success of both sides in the Bakhmut direction.
• The situation on the Lyman direction continues to escalate. 
• Possible operation situation developments: 
• The enemy command is preparing to launch counterattacks on the Melitopol and Berdyansk directions. They are deploying the 810th Separate Marine Brigade and the 336th Separate Marine Regiment for this purpose.
• The enemy command will attempt to stabilize the situation on the flanks of their Bakhmut grouping by introducing the 11th and 31st Separate Airborne Assault Brigades.

International:

• A Russian outlet confirmed the death of 26 thousand Russian invaders, while Ukraine’s military estimates the [Russian] losses to be almost 229 thousand. Ukraine’s General Staff informed that Russians use mobile crematoriums to hide high losses and deprive the families of financial compensation.
• Ukraine has imposed sanctions against 191 Russian and Belarusian nationals and nearly 300 companies linked to Russia.
• Spain will provide Ukraine with four more Leopard 2 MBTs in addition to six already delivered tanks.

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Russian attacks

The Russian forces shelled nine regions of Ukraine within the last day. 

• The enemy shelled border areas of Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts. In the Khotynska community of Sumy Oblast, a minor (born in 2006) was injured, and a storage facility of an agricultural firm was damaged.
• In Zaporizhzhia Oblast, 26 residential and utility objects were damaged over the past day. The enemy conducted 54 shelling attacks on 18 populated areas in Zaporizhzhia, Polohy, and Vasylivka districts. On July 1, a 51-year-old resident of Mala Tokmachka was killed in a Russian shelling. In Preobrazhenka, two people were injured.
• In Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, the Marhanets community in the Nikopol district was under heavy artillery shelling during the night. 
• In Kharkiv Oblast, the enemy shelled at least 12 towns and villages. In Synkivka, Kupyansk district, a 57-year-old man was injured due to artillery shelling. On July 1, Russian military forces struck Balakliya. 4 people, including a 14-year-old boy, were injured. 
• Within June 30, the enemy conducted 111 shelling attacks in Luhansk Oblast (firing 539 projectiles). 
• In Donetsk Oblast, the aggressors shelled at least 13 towns and villages. 31 residential houses, a shop, a warehouse, a water pipeline, a gas pipeline, a power transmission line, and a school were damaged. Within the past day, three people were killed, and ten were injured.
• In Mykolaiv Oblast, Russian forces carried out artillery shelling on the water area of the Ochakiv community. Shelling was also recorded on open territory in Kutsurub village.  
• The Russian forces targeted 26 populated areas of Kherson Oblast and fired artillery at a residential quarter in Kherson. A 72-year-old woman suffered severe injuries. On July 1, the Russian army shelled Kherson. A nine-year-old girl and a 15-year-old boy were injured.

Occupied territories:

In the temporarily occupied territory of Kherson Oblast, near Radensk, Velyki Kopany, and Tarasivka, Russian military personnel and collaborators are conducting searches, beatings, and torture of local residents. This information was reported by the partisan movement “Atesh” on Telegram. The movement claims that the enemy is deeply concerned about the activities of Ukrainian partisans, with specific attention focused on Tarasivka.

Zaporizhzhia NPP

According to President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky’s interview with Spanish journalists, the Zaporizhzhia NPP situation is highly complex. Zelensky stated that the plant is mined, and [Russian] militants are present. “The IAEA confirms that the Zaporizhzhia plant is mined; they simply say that the reactor is not mined. That was their latest information. But this confirms that the plant is mined. We have accurate confirmation from our intelligence that there are mines there. And there is accurate information that there are around 500 militants,” Zelensky emphasized. He stated that while the exact number of militants at the Zaporizhzhia NPP is unknown to the IAEA, their presence has been confirmed. The presence of weapons and mining at the nuclear power plant poses a significant danger.

President Zelensky noted that the information about the dangerous situation at the plant is also evidenced by the plans of the Russian Federation to “create an accident”. “And this is very important. It is done to… freeze the conflict, so that we do not develop our territory.” A frozen conflict is the main strategic idea of ​​the Russian Federation, as they need time to strengthen their army – with weapons, people, “in order to come and wipe us off the face of the earth again.”

According to Zelensky, the release of radiation at the Zaporizhzhia NPP is necessary for the [Russian] aggressors to demonstrate the consequences of war.

“We are talking about it out loud again, just like we talked about the dam of the Kakhovka Reservoir being blown up a year ago,” the President emphasized.

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Operational situation (as of morning 01.07)

General conclusion: 

• The Defense Forces continue their offensive operation on the Melitopol and Berdyansk directions, have intensified their offensive actions in the Bakhmut area, and have achieved certain successes. They are attempting to seize the heights in Klishchiivka and Berkhivka areas, allowing them to encircle the enemy in Bakhmut. The advance towards Soledar and Krasna Hora is ongoing.
• The “Tavria” Operational Grouping continues its advance on the Tavriysk direction.
• The significance of gaining control over the Dubovo-Vasylivka village and Andriivka-Kurdyumivka line is crucial for the advancement and success of both sides in the Bakhmut direction.
• The situation on the Lyman direction continues to escalate. The enemy’s command plans to dislodge the units of the Defense Forces from the area of Bilohorivka at any cost.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

• There have been over 22 combat clashes on different fronts. 
• On the Kupyansk direction, the enemy unsuccessfully advanced towards Novoselivka in Luhansk Oblast. 
• On the Lyman direction, the enemy attacked in the area of Serebryansk forestry, near Bilohorivka and Rozdolivka, but failed to achieve success.
• The enemy forces repelled counterattacks by the Defense Forces in Novoselivske, Bilohorivka, and towards Kuzmyne. Positional battles continue near Synkivka and Dvorichna, with the aggressor seizing the initiative west of Kreminna by capturing some Ukrainian positions and pushing back the Defense Forces to the west in certain areas. 
• On the Bakhmut direction, the enemy unsuccessfully attacked in the areas of Bohdanivka and Khromove, conducting unsuccessful ground strikes near Bakhmut, Bohdanivka, and Ivanivske. However, they improved their tactical position to the south of Ivanivske and in the forest near Chasiv Yar.
• The Defense Forces achieved partial success on the Pryvillya-Zaliznyanske line and consolidated their positions, advancing near the dam in Kurdyumivka. They continued to launch attacks near Yahidne, Berkhivka, Dubovo-Vasylivka, Ivanivske, Pivnichne, Ozaryanivka, Kurdyumivka, and Klishchiivka. 
• On the Avdiivka direction, with the support of aviation, the enemy conducted unsuccessful offensive actions in the areas of Avdiivka, Maryinka, Pobieda, Pervomaiske, and Novomykhailivka. Russian forces repelled Ukrainian attacks near Kamyanka, Kruta Balka, and Pervomaiske.
• The Defense Forces advanced to the north of Avdiivka, to the west of Novobakhmutivka, and in Krasnohorivka, posing a threat to seize Vesele. 
• On the Zaporizhzhia direction, the enemy concentrates its primary efforts on preventing the advancement of the Defense Forces. The [Russian] occupiers unsuccessfully attempted to launch a counterattack in the Rivnopil area and suffered losses. They repelled attacks by the Defense Forces to the south and southwest of Velyka Novosilka.
• The “Tavria” Operational Grouping achieved partial success on the Levadne-Pryiutne line and secured their positions there. They improved their tactical position on the Staromayorske-Rivnopil line and made progress on the Mala Tokmachka-Ocheretyne line. They attempted to break through the Russian defense near Pyatykhatky and made slight advancements in the area. 
• The Russian forces could not displace the Defense Forces unit from its fortified positions under the eastern span of the Antonivskyi Bridge.

Change in enemy disposition: 

• The Russian grouping on the Bakhmut direction consists of 50,300 personnel, over 330 tanks, 140 artillery pieces, mortars, and multiple rocket launchers (RSZV). 
• The 8th artillery regiment of the 22nd Army Corps of the Russian Black Sea Fleet does not have sufficient ammunition for strikes on Ukrainian positions.
• After the air and missile strike by the Defense Forces on the enemy’s Operational Command Post (OCP) of the “Dnipro” operational grouping, its commander, Lieutenant General O. Makarevich, relocated to the OCP of the Southern Military District of Rostov.

Possible operation situation developments: 

• The Defense Forces will continue the offensive in the directions of Polohy-Berdyansk, Velyka Novosilka-Berdyansk, Orikhiv-Melitopol, and some forces will be deployed to Tokmak.
• The Defense Forces will continue active offensive and defensive operations for the next 2-3 months.
• The enemy command is preparing to launch counterattacks on the Melitopol and Berdyansk directions. For this purpose, they are deploying the 810th Separate Marine Brigade of the Black Sea Fleet at the Verkhnya Krynytsia-Lisne frontier for a counterattack from Kamianske-Luhove line towards Lobkove; and the 336th Separate Marine Regiment of the Baltic Fleet at the Pryiutne-Remivka frontier for a counterattack from the Stepove-Novoukrainske line towards Levadne.
• The enemy command will attempt to stabilize the situation on the flanks of their Bakhmut grouping by deploying the 11th and 31st Separate Airborne Assault Brigades, which are being concentrated in this area.
• The restoration of combat readiness of the 1428th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the Territorial Forces has been completed. It will likely be deployed in operations north of Bakhmut from a position west of Pidhorodnie village. The enemy will attempt to displace the forward units of the Defense Forces from Berkhivka towards the reservoir and also try to attack the positions of the Defense Forces north of Klishchiivka towards Ivanivske.

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area: 

• As of July 1st, there were 6 enemy ships at sea. They patrolled the areas near the Crimean Bridge and the coast of the Taman Peninsula. Among them was one missile carrier, the corvette “Ingushetia” (with up to 8 missiles on board), which arrived in Sevastopol from Novorossiysk to replenish its ammunition. 
• At the end of June, some ships and submarines were relocated to Sevastopol to replenish the stock of “Kalibr” missiles (another batch of approximately 20 missiles was delivered from the manufacturer).

• Locations of the Russian Navy ships/submarines:
  • Black Sea: 
  • Corvette “Ingushetia” – south of Cape Chauda (Crimea); 
  • Three submarines of the 636.3 project, submarine “Alrosa”, frigates “Pytlivy”, “Ladny”, reconnaissance ship “Ivan Khurs” – Sevastopol;
  • Frigates “Admiral Essen”, “Admiral Makarov”, corvettes “Grayvoron”, “Vyshny Volochyok”, a submarine of the 636.3 project, patrol ships “Sergey Kotov”, “Dmitry Rogachev” – Novorossiysk; 
  • Corvette “Cyclone”, “Askold” – Kerch; 
  • Reconnaissance ship “Priazovye” – 130 km northeast of Zonguldak (Turkey).
  • Sea of Azov: 
  • Patrol ship “Pavel Derzhavin” – 20 km northwest of the Kerch Strait; 
  • Patrol ship “Vasily Bykov” – south of Mariupol.
  • Locations of large landing ships: 
  • LLS “Korolev” – southwest of Cape Zhelezny Rog; 
  • LLSs “Kaliningrad”, “Olenegorsky Gornyak” – Sevastopol; 
  • LLSs “Yamal”, “Cesar Kunikov”, “Minsk”, “Pyotr Morgunov” – Novorossiysk; 
  • LLS “Orsk” – Feodosia.
• The following landing ships are undergoing repairs in Sevastopol: LLSs “Azov,” “Nikolay Filchenkov,” “Novocherkassk,” “Georgiy Pobedonosets.”

• The enemy’s aviation continues flights over the sea from Crimean airfields Belbek, Saki, Dzhankoy, and Hvardiyske. Three fighter aircraft were monitoring the surface and air situation in the northwestern part of the Black Sea: Su-27/30 (Belbek), one Su-24MR, and one MiG-29 UK (Saki).
• Air situation control and operational-tactical aviation management over the Azov Sea were carried out by A-50U AWACS aircraft.

• Romania has initiated natural gas production in the Black Sea. According to available information, the state-owned company “Romgaz” and “OMV Petrom” (Austria) have approved the development plan for the “Neptun Deep” gas field. The “Neptun Deep” field is located on the continental shelf of the Black Sea in the eastern part of Romania’s exclusive economic zone, about 160 km from the coast.
• Preliminary estimates suggest that the project’s implementation will allow the extraction of approximately 100 billion cubic meters of gas over 10 years. The gas field development is estimated to cost 4 billion euros, and it is expected to be operational by 2027. The “Neptun Deep” project aims to ensure Romania’s independence from Russian gas and provide an opportunity to export its surplus to the EU market and Ukraine.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 28.06.23 

Personnel – almost 228,870 people (+530);

Tanks – 4,042 (+1);

Armored combat vehicles – 7,868 (+5);

Artillery systems – 4,162 (+35);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 632 (+2);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 389 (0);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 6,794 (+9);

Aircraft – 315 (0);

Helicopters – 308(0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 3,545 (+26);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,261 (0);

Boats/ships – 18 (0).

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International:

While Mediazona, a Russian independent media, confirmed the identities of over 26,000 Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine, Ukraine’s military estimates the Russian losses to be almost 229 thousand. Ukraine’s General Staff informed that the Russians are trying to hide significant losses and avoid paying compensation to families by burning the bodies of killed soldiers in mobile crematoria. President Volodymyr Zelensky told the Spanish El Mundo that 21,000 Wagnerites had been killed by Ukrainian forces, and over 80,000 had been injured. At the same time, Russian propaganda started to downplay the effectiveness of the mercenary group after it had been disbanded.

Ukraine has imposed sanctions against 191 Russian and Belarusian nationals, and the founder of Georgian Airways, which is now flying to Russia. Nearly 300 companies linked to Russia were blacklisted.

Spain will provide Ukraine with four more Leopard 2 MBTs in addition to six already delivered tanks.

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