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Russia’s war on Ukraine. Daily Snapshot. 02.07.2023

Snapshot of the day:

General, humanitarian:

–       During the night attack on Ukraine, the Air Defense Forces successfully shot down all 11 enemy aerial targets, including 8 “Shahed” drones and 3 “Kalibr” cruise missiles.

–       Russian forces conducted attacks on 10 regions of Ukraine within the past day.

–       494 Ukrainian children have been killed, and over 1,036 have been injured since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale aggression.

Military:

–       The Defense Forces continue their offensive operation on the Melitopol and Berdyansk directions.

–       The advance towards Soledar and Krasna Hora is ongoing.

–       The “Tavriya” Operational Grouping continues its advance on the Tavriysk direction.

–       The situation south and west of Bakhmut is gradually gaining high dynamics.

–       The Defense Forces’ forward units have successfully eliminated enemy strongholds on the right bank of the Siversky Donets-Donbas Canal in Andriivka and Kurdyumivka. They have advanced significantly towards Klishchiivka, forcing the enemy to retreat to the western outskirts of the village.

–       The enemy command has begun preparations for counterattacks north of Klishchiivka, in the area of Khromove and Zelenopillia, likely to reclaim positions on the strongholds across the Siversky Donets-Donbas Canal.

–       The “Tavriya” grouping continues to advance along both banks of the Mokri Yaly River, complicating the enemy’s defense in Staromlynivka.

–       Possible operation situation developments:

–       On the Kupyansk direction, the enemy plans to launch attacks from the Kolomyichikha-Dzherelne line towards Myasozharivka and Andriivka, in addition to their ongoing attacks from the positions of Kuzemivka. Their objective is to decrease the threat posed to their forces in Svatove and prevent the liberation of Kolomyichikha by the Defense Forces, which would disrupt the stability of the enemy’s “Zapad” grouping defense in that area.

–       On the Lyman direction, the enemy will soon increase pressure towards Hryhorivka from the north and northeast, and resume attacks in the Kreminna-Torske-Zarichne direction.

–       The enemy’s command prepares for counterattacks on the Melitopol and Berdyansk directions.

–       The situation in the Bakhmut area may potentially become even more damaging for the enemy, both around the Siversky bulge of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and on the Svitlodarsk and Popasna directions.

–       The deployment of the 1st separate motorized rifle brigade of the 1st Army Corps on the Opytne-Vodyane line should be considered as preparation for intensifying attacks towards the Severne and the 9th district of Avdiivka.

International:

–       One of the top Russian propagandists claimed that Yevgeny Prigozhin’s companies, including Wagner PMC, have received approximately $20 billion of state financing. This revelation is a good reason to consider designating Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism, particularly because several countries have already labelled the Wagner PMC as such.

–       Shell accounted for 12% (over 7.5 million cubic meters) of Russian maritime trade in LNG in 2022, making it one of the top five sellers of liquefied gas in Russia, according to Global Witness.

–       The majority of Russians (73%) support their war against Ukraine, while only 19% do not, according to a Levada Centre poll.

–       According to a PEW poll, almost two-thirds of respondents view the U.S. role in the world as positive, while one-third do not share this sentiment. A significant majority (61%) believe that the U.S. contributes to peace and stability worldwide, although there is a notable minority (38%) that disagrees.


Humanitarian

As of the morning of July 2, 2023, more than 1,530 children have been affected in Ukraine due to the full-scale armed aggression of the Russian Federation. According to official information from juvenile prosecutors, 494 children have been killed, and over 1,036 have been injured to varying degrees. These figures are not final. Work is underway to establish the data in areas of hostilities, temporarily occupied, and liberated territories.

Russian attacks

At night, the Air Defense Forces successfully shot down all 11 enemy aerial targets, including 8 “Shahed” drones and 3 “Kalibr” cruise missiles.

Russian forces conducted attacks on 10 regions of Ukraine within the past day, using strike drones, aviation, heavy artillery, mortars, and multiple rocket launchers.

–       During the night, the enemy attacked Kyiv Oblast with drones. All targets were successfully intercepted, and no impacts were reported. However, a fire broke out in a private house due to falling debris, and a man was injured.

–       The enemy shelled border communities of Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts. There is damage to private houses and powerline.

–       Russian forces conducted 58 shelling attacks on 18 towns and villages in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. The destruction of 18 civilian objects, including houses, outbuildings, an educational institution, and vehicles, has been recorded. 3 people were wounded.

–       Russians fired 10 shells at Nikopol, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, yesterday. The damages include a canteen, an administrative building, a church, eight private houses, two outbuildings, and a car.

–       The enemy launched airstrikes and shelled at least 15 towns and villages in Kharkiv Oblast. Yesterday, Russian forces shelled Balakliia in Izyum District with cluster munitions. 2 people were wounded. Four residential buildings, an outbuilding, a power transmission line, and a railway track were damaged. In Bohodarovo, a tractor detonated a landmine during fieldwork.

–       In Luhansk Oblast, the aggressors are shelling towns and villages. The enemy carried out an aviation strike on Bilohorivka.

–       One person was killed during the day in Donetsk Oblast, and three were injured. Ten residential buildings (including 5 apartment buildings), two schools, a village council building, a social rehabilitation center, an outpatient clinic, two power transmission lines, and a gas pipeline were damaged.

–       During the night, the air defense forces destroyed two combat UAVs of the Shahed-136/131 type over Mykolaiv Oblast.

–       Russian military targeted areas near 31 towns and villages in Kherson Oblast. In Kherson, a projectile hit a house, injuring a 9-year-old girl and a 15-year-old boy. A 72-year-old woman sustained severe injuries. An 11-year-old girl was injured due to the shelling of the village of Mylove. As a result of the shelling of Mykhailivka, Novooleksandrivka community, a 70-year-old man was wounded.

Zaporizhzhia NPP

Several employees of “Rosatom,” brought to the Zaporizhzhia NPP from Russia, have left Enerhodar, as well as some collaborators who were ZNPP employees that had contracts with the Russians, said the Mayor of Enerhodar, Dmytro Orlov, in a comment to Ukrainian Radio.

According to the Mayor’s statement, the occupying forces brought explosives to the ZNPP nearly a year ago and proceeded to mine the plant’s perimeter as well as the entire coast of the Kakhovka Reservoir. The Russians have continued mining activities this year, possibly in preparation for a potential counterattack by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. These mining activities, including the impact on the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Station, have caused significant concern among specialists in Enerhodar. The presence of trucks with explosives indicates that the occupiers are preparing for various scenarios, and their use of the nuclear power plant as a tool for international influence is seen as a means of blackmailing not only Ukraine but the entire world.

According to Orlov, the Mayor of Enerhodar, there are no shelters in the city in case of an explosion at the ZNPP. In the event of nuclear or radiation incidents at the plant, regulations and instructions dictate a complete evacuation from the city based on wind directions and weather conditions. Shelters are only available in industrial premises at the nuclear and thermal power plants and neighboring facilities. Orlov also highlighted that around 5,000-6,000 ZNPP workers in the city are effectively held hostage by the Russian army. The occupation authorities prevent them from leaving the city limits, and those who have not signed contracts with Rosatom have had their passes blocked, prohibiting them from working.

The humanitarian situation has worsened as well. Since September, the occupiers have blocked the delivery of humanitarian aid, including essential medications like insulin. Communication in the city is also challenging. While mobile networks can reach the upper floors of high-rise buildings, the occupiers have blocked Ukrainian TV channels, radio stations, and taken control of internet resources.


Operational situation (as of morning 02.06)

General conclusion:

–       The Defense Forces continue their offensive operation on the Melitopol and Berdyansk directions.

–       The advance towards Soledar and Krasna Hora is ongoing.

–       The “Tavriya” Operational Grouping continues its advance on the Tavriysk direction.

–       The situation south and west of Bakhmut is gradually gaining high dynamics. The enemy was also forced to abandon their positions in the southwestern part of Bakhmut (south of Korsunsky Street).

–       The Defense Forces’ forward units have successfully eliminated enemy strongholds on the right bank of the Siversky Donets-Donbas Canal in Andriivka and Kurdyumivka. Furthermore, they have advanced significantly towards Klishchiivka, forcing the enemy units of the 72nd and 57th separate motorized rifle brigades to retreat to the western outskirts of the village.

–       The enemy command has begun preparations for counterattacks north of Klishchiivka, in the area of Khromove and Zelenopillia. Their likely objective is to reclaim positions on the strongholds across the Siversky Donets-Donbas Canal.

–       The “Tavriya” grouping continues to advance along both banks of the Mokri Yaly River, complicating the enemy’s defense in Staromlynivka.

Change in the line of contact (LoC): 

–       There have been over 22 combat clashes in various directions.

–       On the Kupyansk direction, the enemy’s command aims to create favorable conditions for further intensification of combat operations, particularly in the direction of Stelmakhivka. To achieve this, they have organized a series of attacks over the past two days by the forces of the 7th motorized rifle regiment of the 18th motorized rifle division of the 11th Army Corps of the Baltic Sea Fleet, with the support of units from the 27th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, south and north of Novoselivka, in order to bypass the village from both flanks and push back the advance units of the Defense Forces from the R07 road.

–       On the Lyman direction, the enemy’s forward units, which advanced northwest of Bilohorivka along the left bank of the Siversky Donets River several days ago, are consolidating their positions at the achieved frontlines. The enemy continues to launch attacks on  Bilohorivka from the southeast direction. The grouping in this direction was reinforced by the 6th detachment of the BARS “Orenburg” unit.

–       On the Bakhmut direction, combat activity has increased after a short-term pause caused by the enemy’s troop repositioning north and south of the city. The enemy has managed to push back the advance units of the Defense Forces in the Berkhivka area and is attempting to exploit this success to stabilize the situation on this front. The enemy carried out a series of attacks in the most threatening areas: they attacked Defense Forces positions from the direction of Berkhivka and Yahidne towards Bohdanivka with the aim of eliminating the Defense Forces’ penetration in the area of the Berkhiv Reservoir; the 200th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade attacked from the area north of Dubovo-Vasylivka towards Orikhovo-Vasylivka to prevent the encirclement of their units in Dubovo-Vasylivka; they also launched an attack from the northwest of Yakovlivka and from Bilohorivka towards Vesele, attempting to eliminate the breakthrough of the Defense Forces towards Yakovlivka.

–       The enemy is attempting to prevent the Defense Forces from reaching the T0513 road by steadfastly holding their positions along the Klishchiivka – Andriivka – Zelenopillia – Kurdyumivka line.

–       On the Avdiivka direction, the Defense Forces are completing the liberation of Vesele, which poses a threat to the right flank of the 227th rifle regiment of the 1st Army Corps, defending Krasnohorivka, and the 9th Separate SF motorized regiment of the 1st Army Corps will be forced to retreat beyond the road near Novoselivka-2. The enemy’s command was unable to capture Stepove and Berdychi.

–       On the Zaporizhzhia direction, the advance of the Defense Forces is developing along several tactical directions in Melitopol and Berdyansk.

–       On the Melitopol direction, battles are ongoing in two main tactical areas. The enemy is concentrating their efforts on defending Robotyne and Verbove, attempting to prevent their liberation by the Defense Forces.

–       The enemy’s operational deployment is as follows:

–       On the Tokmak direction, they are organized into two echelons:

  • In the first echelon: 291st, 70th, 503rd motorized regiments, 2nd and 45th separate SOF brigades, 417th separate ranger battalion (in Verbove village), 3rd detachment of the BARS group, PMC “Tsarskyi Vovky” detachment (in Kopani village).
  • In the second echelon: 1430th motorized rifle regiment of the Territorial Troops (in Novoprokopivka village), 249th battalion “Akhmat-Yug (South)” (deployed at positions between Kopani and Novoprokopivka villages), 11th and 14th detachments of the BARS group.

–       On the Vasylivka direction, the enemy is deployed in two echelons:

  • In the first echelon: 429th motorized rifle regiment (from the southwestern part of Kamianske village to the area of Zherebyanka village), 125th motorized rifle regiment of the 1st Army Corps (in Dolynka and Myrne villages), 32nd detachment of the BARS group (in Luhove village), remnants of the “Storm-Ossetia” battalion (in the northeastern area of Hrozove village).
  • In the second echelon: 810th separate marines brigade of the Black Sea Fleet (along the Verkhnya Krynytsia – Lisne line), 95th motorized rifle regiment (in Hrozove village), 4th military base (between Hrozove and Dolynka villages), “volunteer” battalion “Alania” (north of Hladke village).

–       The enemy has been unable to halt the advance of the Defense Forces on any of the directions.

–       On the Polohy direction, the command of the 35th Army is conducting troop redeployment and likely preparing for an intensification of attacks by the Defense Forces towards Dorozhnyanka and Dobry Zatyshok in the direction of Polohy, in the area of the 177th separate marine regiment of the Caspian Fleet.

–       The tactical situation in the area of Novopokrovka is becoming more challenging for the enemy. Although they continue to hold the southern part of the village, their units have retreated nearly 3 km in the Novokarlivka – Bagate section. The Defense Forces have disrupted the enemy’s defense stability along the northern bank of the Konka River in the general direction of Luhivske – Ukrayinske.

–       On the Berdyansk direction, in the first echelon, there are units of the 336th separate marines brigade of the Baltic Fleet (in Pryiutne village), the 394th motorized rifle regiment deployed in the area of Volodyne village, the 60th separate motorized rifle brigade (in Staromayorske village), the 136th separate motorized rifle brigade (in Urozhaine and Zavitne Bazhannia villages), and the 37th separate motorized rifle brigade (in Novodonetske-Kermenchyk).

–       In the second echelon, there are the 40th separate marines brigade of the Pacific Fleet, the 131st motorized rifle regiment of the 1st Army Corps, and the remaining elements of the 394th motorized rifle regiment, the 71st motorized rifle regiment (in Staromlynivka village), and the separate battalion “Kaskad”.

–       It is also evident that the command of the Russian forces in this direction is preparing a kind of response in the form of a series of counterattacks. Most likely, in the direction of Stepove – Levadne, the forces of the 143rd motorized rifle regiment of the 127th motorized rifle division and units of the “fresh” 336th separate marines brigade, as well as in the area of Novodonetske (either along the Shaitanka River or across it towards Zolota Nyva), it is highly likely, with the participation of units from the 131st motorized rifle regiment, the 40th separate marines brigade, and probably the 5th separate tank brigade (if it is indeed present there).

–       In addition, it is not ruled out that the enemy will also attempt to halt the advancement of Ukrainian forces along the Mokri Yaly River through counterattacks involving units from either the left flank of the 37th separate motorized rifle brigade or the 71st motorized rifle regiment, and the 5th separate tank brigade with the immediate task of “easing the situation” with the 136th separate motorized rifle brigade in the area of Urozhaine.

Change in enemy disposition:

–       On the Lyman direction, the enemy’s operational-tactical group is engaged in combat operations, consisting mainly of units from the 74th separate motorized rifle brigade, the 488th and 228th  motorized rifle regiments, the 98th airborne division, the 76th separate airborne assault division. The group’s actions are supported by the 59th tank battalion (at full strength) of the 144th motorized rifle division, whose main forces are deployed in the Kreminna-Zarichne direction.

–       Since the capture of Soledar and its outskirts, the enemy has established a fortified defensive line between Krasnopolivka and Yakovlivka, consisting of a series of platoon and company strongpoints.

–       In the area of Opytne and Zaitseve, the enemy has begun deploying the 1307th motorized rifle regiment of the Russian Territorial Forces, a motorized rifle battalion from the 374th motorized rifle regiment, the “Prizrak” (Ghost) separate motorized rifle battalion, the 27th and the 1182nd artillery brigades of the 106th airborne division. These units, along with elements of the 2nd Army Corps, are being deployed to stabilize the situation south of Bakhmut.

–       The units of the 1st separate motorized rifle brigade of the 1st Army Corps, after a shortened restoration of combat readiness, have advanced to the Opytne-Vodyane line.

–       The 38th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 35th Army is being relocated from the area of Novokarlivka to the Myrne-Zahirne line.

Possible operation situation developments:

–       The Defense Forces will continue the offensive in the directions of Polohy-Berdyansk, Velyka Novosilka-Berdyansk, Orikhiv-Melitopol, and some forces will target Tokmak.

–       The Defense Forces will maintain active offensive and defensive operations for the next 2-3 months.

–       On the Kupyansk direction, the enemy, simultaneously with attacks from the positions of Kuzemivka, will soon attempt to launch attacks from the Kolomyichikha-Dzherelne line towards Myasozharivka and Andriivka, aiming to reduce the threat to their forces in Svatove and prevent the liberation of Kolomyichikha by the Defense Forces, which would disrupt the stability of the enemy’s “Zapad” grouping defense in that area.

–       On the Lyman direction, the enemy will soon increase pressure towards Hryhorivka from the north and northeast, and resume attacks in the Kreminna-Torske-Zarichne direction.

–       The enemy’s command prepares for counterattacks on the Melitopol and Berdyansk directions. They are deploying the 810th separate marine brigade of the Black Sea Fleet at the Verkhnya Krynytsia-Lisne line for a counterattack towards Lobkove from the Kamianske-Luhove line, and the 336th separate marine brigade of the Baltic Fleet at the Priyutine-Remivka line for a counterattack towards Levadne from the Stepove-Novoukrainske line.

–       The situation in the Bakhmut area may potentially become even more damaging for the enemy, both around the Siversky bulge of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and on the Svitlodarsk and Popasna directions.

–       The deployment of the 1st separate motorized rifle brigade of the 1st Army Corps on the Opytne-Vodyane line should be considered as preparation for intensifying attacks towards the Severne and the 9th district of Avdiivka.

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:

–       As of the morning of July 2nd, there were 7 enemy ships in the sea. They were patrolling the areas near the Crimean Bridge and the coast of the Taman Peninsula. Among them is one missile carrier, the corvette “Grayvoron,” equipped with Kalibr missiles, and two Project 636.3 submarines that have replenished their Kalibr missile stockpile in Sevastopol. Each of these ships carries 16 missiles.

–       In total, there are seven Kalibr missile carriers (up to 48 missiles) in the Black Sea ports:

  • Sevastopol: one Project 636.3 submarine
  • Novorossiysk: frigates “Admiral Makarov,” “Admiral Essen,” corvettes “Grayvoron,” “Vyshny Volochyok,” “Ingushetia,” and one Project 636.3 submarine.

–       In the Caspian Sea ports, there are three Kalibr missile carriers (up to 24 missiles):

  • Kaspiysk: frigate “Dagestan,” corvettes “Veliky Ustyug,” “Grad Sviyazhsk.”

–       On the night of July 2nd, the enemy launched three Kalibr missiles from the sea, but the Ukrainian Defense Forces’ air defense systems successfully intercepted all three missiles.

–       The enemy’s aviation continues flights over the sea from the Crimean airfields of Belbek, Saky, Dzhankoy, and Hvardiyske. To monitor the surface and air situation in the northwestern part of the Black Sea waters, six fighter aircraft were deployed from the Saky and Belbek airfields: three Su-27/30 (Belbek), two Su-24MR, and one MiG-29 UK (Saky).

–       The control of the air situation and the management of operational-tactical aviation over the Azov Sea were carried out by the A-50U Airborne Early Warning and Control (AEW&C) aircraft.

–       Military transport aviation conducted five flights to transport personnel and weapons to the Belbek airfield, four to Saky, and two to Dzhankoy.

–       The enemy in the northern part of Crimea is intensifying their defense efforts. Following a missile strike by the Ukrainian Defense Forces that damaged the Chonhar crossing bridge, the enemy has deployed three additional S-400 air defense systems in the Chonhar area, possibly transferred from Komsomolsk-on-Amur, Russia. The damage to the bridge has resulted in increased traffic and cargo redirection to the Crimean Bridge, leading to significant traffic jams and waiting times of up to 7-9 km and 5 hours, respectively, at the entrance to the Kerch Bridge from the Kuban side. Additionally, the enemy is relocating more ground forces to Crimea. Over June 29th and 30th, three trains transported 35 tanks, 30 armored personnel carriers, and 400 servicemen across the Kerch Bridge to Dzhankoy.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 02.06.23

Personnel – almost 229,660 people (+790);

Tanks – 4,052 (+10);

Armored combat vehicles – 7,888 (+20);

Artillery systems – 4,188 (+26);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 637 (+5);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 390 (+1);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 6,816 (+22);

Aircraft – 315 (0);

Helicopters – 308(0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 3,557 (+12);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,261 (0);

Boats/ships – 18 (0).


International:

Dmitriy Kiselev, a prominent Russian propaganda figure, claimed that Yevgeny Prigozhin Wagner PMC received a staggering $9.8 billion in state funding. When considering financing other companies owned by Prigozhin, it is estimated that the Russian Federation spent approximately $20 billion. This revelation is a good reason to consider designating Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism, particularly because several countries have already labelled the Wagner PMC as such.

According to Global Witness, Shell accounted for 12% (over 7.5 million cubic meters) of Russian maritime trade in LNG in 2022, making it one of the top five sellers of liquefied gas in Russia. Analyst firm Bernstein estimated that in 2022, the company achieved a gross margin of approximately $5.4 billion from trading LNG and optimizing its LNG portfolio. Global Witness further approximated that 8% of the LNG traded by Shell, worth $5.4 billion, originated from Russia, meaning that around $430 million came from Russian trades.

A recent poll conducted by the Levada Centre revealed that the majority of Russians (73%) support their war against Ukraine, while only 19% do not. Comparatively, in March of the previous year, 80% favored the war, and 14% were against it. The most prevalent emotions concerning Russian actions are pride (43%), followed by anxiety and fear (31%). Only a small percentage of Russians reported feeling anger (8%), shame (8%), or shock (11%).

According to a recent PEW Research poll, U.S. President Joe Biden is receiving predominantly positive reviews from the global public. Almost two-thirds of respondents view the U.S. role in the world as positive, while one-third do not share this sentiment. A significant majority (61%) believe that the U.S. contributes to peace and stability worldwide, although there is a notable minority (38%) that disagrees. Among countries with a favorable view of the U.S., Poland leads the list with 93%, followed by Italy (60%), the U.K. (59%), and the Netherlands (58%). In terms of considering their interests, Poland (67%) is again at the top, with Germany (59%) and the U.K. (49%) following suit. Foreign respondents highly value U.S. achievements in technology (72%), entertainment (71%), universities (69%), and the military (68%).


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