Russia’s war on Ukraine. Daily Snapshot. 03.07.2023

Snapshot of the day:

General, humanitarian:

• Ukrainian President Zelensky said that Ukraine cannot imagine its future without Crimea and emphasized that the war is not over as long as Crimea remains under Russian occupation.
• Russian forces attacked 11 Ukrainian Oblasts, including Kirovohrad and Khmelnytskyi which are not attacked frequently.
• The situation in the occupied Hola Prystan following the destruction of the Kakhovka dam is critical. The occupation authorities do not clean the debris and don’t pump water, no medical services or pharmacies are available to the residents;
• The situation at the Zaporizhzhya NPP remains “extremely vulnerable” although Ukrenergo reconnected it to the backup power line for the first time in four months;
• The Russian invaders placed Pantsir-S1 missile complexes around the Crimean Titan chemical plant in the city of Armyansk in the temporarily occupied Crimea.

Military:

• Ukrainian Defense Forces continue the offensive operation in the Melitopol and Berdyansk directions;
• Russian forces have changed tactics in the Lyman direction, where it conducts reconnaissance operations and attacks in small platoon groups.
• Possible operational situation development
• Ukrainian Defense Forces will develop an offensive in the direction of Polohy – Berdyansk; Velyka Novosilka – Berdyansk; Orihiv – Melitopol and part of the forces – to Tokmak;
• The deployment of the 1st separate motorized rifle brigade of the 1st Army Corps on the Opytne-Vodyane line should be viewed as preparation for intensified attacks in the direction of Severne and Avdiivka 9th quarter;
• The Russian command is preparing to carry out counterattacks in the Melitopol and Berdyansk directions
• Grain agreement:
• Russia claims that the restoration of the sanctioned Rosselkhozbank’s access to SWIFT is a precondition for extending the grain agreement; the EU is looking into this possibility.

International:

• Russia has taken 700,000 Ukrainian children hostage, according to a Russian lawmaker.
• The Papal envoy focused his talks in Kyiv and Moscow on humanitarian aspects and didn’t discuss a peace plan or a mediation, which is a fine line for the Holy See.
• Germany and Poland are facing difficulties in reaching an agreement on the establishment of a maintenance center in Poland to repair Leopard tanks supplied to Ukraine. Germans believe that it’s a politically motivated stance.
• The International Centre for the Prosecution of the Crime of Aggression against Ukraine has commenced its operation in The Hague. It will play a crucial role in investigating Russia’s alleged crime of aggression against Ukraine and facilitating the building of cases for future trials.
• While the EU is attempting to ease its imposed restrictions on a Russian bank to maintain Moscow’s participation in the Black Sea Grain Initiative, Hungary is undermining sanctions by extending sanctions exemptions for the Slovnaft oil refiner.

---

Humanitarian

As of 2:00 p.m. on July 3, 1 village (1 house) on the right bank of the Dnipro River and 17 villages in the temporarily occupied territory of Kherson Oblast remain flooded following the destruction of the Kakhovka dam, the State Emergencies Service reports. Residents of liberated territories, both those that were evacuated from the flooding and those who were in other regions of Ukraine are coming back to look at the damage. 

The situation in the occupied Hola Prystan is critical, the eastern and central parts remain flooded. The situation is critical in the central part of the city, where the water level sometimes reaches up to 0.7 m in the lowlands. The occupation authorities do not clean public spaces of water and debris. There are no medical services, pharmacies in the city do not work.

The State Environmental Inspection said that no oil products were detected In the Inhulets River following the flooding. The maximum permissible concentration of dry residue was exceeded – 1038.0 mg/dm3. Which is 1.04 times more than the norm. The salinity of the Black Sea water in Odesa Oblast is 16.3-17.3 g/dm3, which corresponds to the norm.

Russian attacks

During the day, Russian forces launched another air and missile attack using three S-300 anti-aircraft guided missiles and 20 Iranian Shahed attack drones against civilian infrastructure in Sumy, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. Ukrainian Air defense destroyed 14 Shahed attack UAVs. Overall, 11 Ukrainian Oblasts were attacked. In addition to the usual 9 Oblast, Russian forces attacked Kirovohrad Oblast in central Ukraine and Khmelnytskyi Oblast in the west of the country. There are killed and injured civilians in different regions of Ukraine.

According to statistics, most Russian missile attacks on Ukraine are launched at night, because this complicates the work of air defense. They are launched from different directions, via different routes, which complicates the work of air defense and distracts the attention of the anti-aircraft fighters and other specialists who shoot down the UAVs, Yuriy Ignat, spokesman for the Air Force Command of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, said.

As of 10:49 a.m., 4 Shahed 136 UAVs hits were recorded in the center of Sumy. As a result of the impact, an administrative building and 2 apartment buildings were damaged. One person died, 16 were injured, Sumy Oblast Military Administration reported.

Occupied territories

The Zaporizhzhia NPP has been reconnected to the only available backup power line for the first time in four months, but the situation at the facility remains “extremely vulnerable” and unstable. IAEA Director General Raphael Grossi said. The connection of the nuclear power plant in Zaporizhzhia to the single 330 kV power transmission line was interrupted on March 1. Ukrenergo reported that it was able to restore the connection only in the evening of July 1.

The Russian invaders have strategically positioned Pantsir-S1 missile complexes around the Crimean Titan factory in the city of Armyansk, which is currently under temporary occupation in Crimea, as reported by Evocation.info investigators. In addition, the presence of numerous freight cars on a railway branch leading to a defunct enterprise raises suspicion and suggests the possibility of concealing warehouses and military headquarters at this potentially hazardous strategic object.

According to Nataliya Humenyuk, the head of the joint press center of the Defense Forces of Southern Ukraine, Russian occupying officials in Crimea are engaged in efforts to remove families and documents that could potentially incriminate them in criminal activities. These actions are being carried out cautiously to avoid causing panic among the local population.

---

Operational situation

General conclusion:

• Ukrainian Defense Forces continue the offensive operation in the Melitopol and Berdyansk directions;
• Russian forces have changed tactics in the Lyman direction, where it conducts reconnaissance operations and attacks in small platoon groups.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

• Over 31 combat clashes took place on different fronts.
• On the Kupyansk direction, units of the 27th separate motorized rifle brigade and 7th motorized rifle regiment (the 18th motorized rifle division of the 11th Russian Army Corps) repulsed two Ukrainian attacks near Novoselivske.
• On the Lyman direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces continued to conduct positional battles along the Kupyansk – Svatove – Kreminna line. The Russian military with the forces of the 234th air assault regiment of the 76th air assault division unsuccessfully attacked near Nevske and south of Dibrova.
• Units of the 331st airborne regiment of the 98th airborne division repelled Ukrainian attacks near Torske, the 234th air assault regiment of the 76th air assault division – near Dibrova, and the 55th separate motorized rifle brigade – near Terny. The 79th separate reconnaissance battalion of the 2nd Army Corps launched an attack with a UAV on the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces in Bilohorivka.
• On the Bakhmut direction, Russian forces carried out unsuccessful offensive actions in the areas of Minkivka and Bohdanivka, and unsuccessful assaults near Khromove and Berkhivka in Donetsk Oblast. Russian forces repelled Ukrainian attacks near Bakhmut and Berkhivka and deployed reinforcements in the area of the E40 highway near Dubovo-Vasylivka (likely – the 9th motorized rifle regiment of the 18th motorized rifle division of the 11^th Army Corps of the Baltic Fleet).
• Ukrainian Defense Forces advanced to the southwest of Klishchiivka, pushing back units of the 80th tank regiment of the 90th tank division. The 3rd separate assault brigade forced the Siversky Donets – Donbas canal to the south of Bakhmut on a wide front.
• In the Avdiivka direction, Russian forces carried out unsuccessful offensive actions in the area of Avdiivka, Maryinka, near Pervomaiske, and Pisky. Positional battles continue at the Opytne-Vodyane frontier. Russian forces repulsed Ukrainian attacks near Novobakhmutivka, Severne, Vodyane, Pervomaiske and Maryinka.
• Ukrainian Defense Forces carried out raids along the Severne-Vodyane road.
• In the Zaporizhzhia direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces advanced to the northeast of Volodymyrivka, continued counterattacks to the south and southwest of Orikhiv, attacked Russian positions near Robotyne, and captured the first Russian line of defense west of the village.
• Russian forces repelled a Ukrainian attack near Mykilske, Rivnopil. At night, the 429th motorized rifle regiment of the 19th motorized rifle division of the 58th Army repulsed an attack by Ukrainian Defense Forces near Pyatykhatky.
• The 128th separate mountain assault brigade of Ukrainian Defense Forces captured Zherebyanky and repels enemy counterattacks. The 65th separate mechanized brigade is fighting in Robotyne, repelling Russian counterattacks. Ukrainian Defense Forces attacked the 38th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 35th Army in Novoprokopivka, the unit of the 45th separate SOF brigade of the Russian airborne forces is defending in the southern part of the village.
• Units of Ukrainian Defense Forces hold positions on the eastern bank of the Dnipro near the Antoniv bridge.

Change in enemy disposition:

• On the Kupyansk direction, the 26th tank regiment (47th tank division) operates near Kyslivka.
• Units of the “Vladlen Tatarskyi” UAV detachment of the Southern Military District operate near New York, the 1453rd motorized rifle regiment and the 80th separate reconnaissance battalion “Sparta” of the 1st Army Corps are deployed near Pervomaiske and Lastochkine.
• The 38th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 35th Army of the Eastern Military District operates in the area of Luhovske.

Possible operation situation developments:

• Ukrainian Defense Forces will develop an offensive in the direction of Polohy – Berdyansk; Velyka Novosilka – Berdyansk; Orikhiv – Melitopol and part of the forces – to Tokmak;
• Ukrainian Defense forces will continue active offensive and defensive actions for the next 2-3 months;
• The deployment of the 1st separate motorized rifle brigade of the 1st Army Corps on the Opytne-Vodyane line should be viewed as preparation for intensified attacks in the direction of Severne and Avdiivka 9th quarter;
• The Russian command is preparing to carry out counterattacks in the Melitopol and Berdyansk directions. For this purpose, it deploys the 810th separate marines brigade of the Black Sea Fleet on the Verkhnya Krynytsia – Lisne line for a counterattack from the Kamianske – Luhove line in the direction of Lobkove, and the 336th separate marines brigade of the Baltic Fleet on the Priyutine – Remivka line for a counterattack from the Stepove – Novoukrainske line in the direction of Levadne. To attack in the direction of Stepove – Levadne it prepares the forces of the 143rd motorized rifle regiment of the 127th motorized rifle division, and to attack in the area of Novodonetske (or along the Shaitanka River, or across it towards the village of Zolota Nyva) – the forces of the 131st motorized rifle regiment, the 40th motorized rifle division, and probably the 5th separate tank brigade.

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:

• As of the morning of July 3, there were 9 Russian ships at sea. They patrol the areas near the Kerch Strait Bridge and along the coast of the Taman Peninsula. There are 3-4 Kalibr missile carriers among them, one-two corvettes and two project 636.3 submarines that have recently replenished their stockpile of Kalibr missiles in Sevastopol. They have up to 24 missiles on board.Locations of ships/submarines of the Russian Navy:Black Sea:
• Pr. 636.3 submarine – SEVASTOPOL external raid;
• “Vyshnyy Volochyok” corvette, pr. 636.3 submarine – Cape Khersones area;
• Pr. 636.3 submarines, “Alrosa”, “Pytlivyy” and “Ladny” frigates, “Priazovye” reconnaissance ship – SEVASTOPOL;
• “Admiral Essen”, “Admiral Makarov” frigates, “Grayvoron”, “Ingushetia” small rocket ships, pr. 636.3 submarine, “Sergei Kotov”, “Dmitry Rogachev”, “Vasily Bykov” patrol ships – NOVOROSSIYSK;
• “Zyklon”, “Askold” corvettes – KERCH;
• “Ivan Khurs” reconnaissance ship – 55 km southeast of Cape MEGANOM (at sea for the first time after the naval drone attack);Sea of Azov:
• “Pavel Derzhavin” patrol ship – 30 km northwest of the Kerch Strait;Location of large landing ships:
• LLS “Korolyov” of the Baltic Fleet – 20 km south-east of Cape ZHELEZNY ROG;
• LLS “Kaliningrad” of the Baltic Fleet, “Olenegorskiy Gornyak” – SEVASTOPOL;
• LLS “Yamal”, “Cesar Kunikov” of the Black Sea Fleet, “Minsk” of the Baltic Fleet, “Pyotr Morgunov” of the Northern Fleet – NOVOROSSISK;
• LLS “Orsk” – FEODOSIA.
• The Azov, Nikolay Filchenkov, Novocherkassk, and Georgy Pobedonoset LLSs are being repaired in the city of Sevastopol.
• On the night of July 3, the Russian navy launched an attack from the sea with “Kalibr” missiles on Odesa Oblast.
• Russian aviation continues to fly from the Crimean airfields of Belbek, Saky, Dzhankoy and Hvardiyske over the sea. Seven fighter aircraft from Belbek and Saki Air Force Bases were involved in monitoring the surface and air conditions in the northwestern part of the Black Sea, namely three Su-27/30 (BELBEK), two Su-24MR and two Mig-29 UK (SAKI).
• The control of the air situation and the management of operational-tactical aviation over the Azov Sea were carried out by the A-50U Airborne Early Warning and Control (AEW&C) aircraft.

The “Grain Initiative”

• Against the background of the full-scale war unleashed against Ukraine, the largest banks of the Russian Federation lost access to the SWIFT international bank communication system. As a result, the aggressor is now conditioning the extension of the grain agreement on the restoration of Rosselkhozbank’s access to the system, a demand that is being considered by the EU. Sources from the Financial Times indicate that EU officials are assessing the legality and feasibility of a plan in which Rosselkhozbank, owned by the Kremlin, would establish a subsidiary capable of restoring communication with SWIFT. The EU representative acknowledges that Russia’s threats to terminate the agreement carry greater weight this time compared to previous negotiations. In order to extend the agreement, the EU is exploring various measures, including potential relaxation of sanctions against specific Russian companies or granting permission for the Russian Federation to export specific goods through the bloc’s territory. The possibility of removing Rosselkhozbank from the sanctions list was discussed by EU leaders during the recent summit in Brussels as a potential strategy to persuade Moscow to extend the grain agreement, which allowed for the resumption of grain exports from Ukraine after it expired on July 17.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 03.07.23

Personnel – almost 230,260 people (+600);

Tanks – 4,057 (+5);

Armored combat vehicles – 7,899 (+11);

Artillery systems – 4,220 (+32);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 641 (+4);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 391 (+1);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 6,834 (+18);

Aircraft – 315 (0);

Helicopters – 309 (+1);

UAV operational and tactical level – 3,573 (+16);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,264 (+3);

Boats/ships – 18 (0).

---

Ukraine, general news

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that Ukraine cannot imagine its future without Crimea and emphasized that as long as Crimea remains under Russian occupation, the war is not over. Liberation of Crimea isn’t only a matter of principle, restoration of international law, and ensuring the rights of indigenous peoples and Ukrainian citizens of different ethnic backgrounds. Russia-held Crimea is an existential threat to Ukraine, a danger to the Black Sea nations, and a power projection tool beyond the region. Russia’s militarized Crimea is a direct missile and nuclear threat to the European continent.

International

Russia has taken 700,000 Ukrainian children as hostages, according to Russian lawmaker Grigory Karasin. An ICC warrant has been issued against Russia’s president and ombudswoman regarding these exact actions.

The Papal envoy told RAI that his meetings in Kyiv and Moscow “were important, especially in humanitarian aspects, which are what we have focused on. There is not a peace plan, not a mediation.”  During his visit to Moscow, Cardinal Zuppi met with Yuri Ushakov, Putin’s diplomatic advisor, and Moscow’s Patriarch Gundyayev. After facing criticism from Ukraine, the Holy See has adopted a more focused approach to address humanitarian issues such as prisoner exchanges and the return of Ukrainian children who were illegally deported to Russia. The Ukrainian government did not welcome ceasefire proposals or peace talks, as they believed such initiatives would benefit Russia more than Ukraine and not lead to a just and lasting peace.

Germany and Poland are facing difficulties in reaching an agreement on the establishment of a maintenance center in Poland for repairing Leopard tanks supplied to Ukraine, as reported by Der Spiegel. The newspaper suggests that Poland’s stance is politically motivated, leading them to propose a diagnostic fee of €100,000, which is nearly ten times higher than the cost in Germany. The project, worth €150 million, was initially intended to involve German companies Rheinmetall and Krauss-Maffei Wegmann, along with the Polish Armaments Group, which planned to establish factories in Gliwice and Poznan.

The International Centre for the Prosecution of the Crime of Aggression against Ukraine (ICPA) has commenced its operations in The Hague, hosted by the European Union Agency for Criminal Justice Cooperation (Eurojust). This entity will play a crucial role in investigating Russia’s alleged crime of aggression against Ukraine and facilitating the building of cases for future trials. The ICPA aims to support and enhance ongoing and future investigations into the crime of aggression, as well as contribute to the exchange and analysis of evidence collected since the beginning of the Russian aggression. “We will leave no stone unturned to hold Putin and his henchmen accountable,” President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen said. “I hope that this tribunal to prosecute the crime of aggression would be international because the crime of aggression committed by Russia against Ukraine is the crime against global peace and security. And to fill in the gaps in international law we need an international response,” Prosecutor General of Ukraine Andriy Kostin stressed.

Ukraine has received an $890 million tranche from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) under the Extended Fund Facility. To date, Ukraine has already received $3.59 billion out of a total funding commitment of $15.6 billion under the program.

While the EU is attempting to ease the restrictions it imposed on Rosselkhozbank to maintain Moscow’s participation in the Black Sea Grain Initiative, Hungary is undermining sanctions by extending sanctions exemptions for the oil refiner Slovnaft. This would allow the Russian Agricultural Bank to establish a subsidiary with access to the SWIFT international payment system, enabling it to conduct financial transactions related to grain exports. Slovnaft, a Slovak subsidiary of the Hungarian oil and gas company MOL Group, would be permitted to continue exporting Russian-made oil products to the Czech Republic. Hungary and Slovakia are significant importers of Russian crude, with dependency rates of eighty and ninety-five percent, respectively.

---

Dear CDS Daily Brief subscribers, as we announced earlier, we will transition from email distribution to Substack, providing you with a better experience and new features.

We will continue distributing the CDS Daily Brief via email and website during the initial test period as we gradually transition to the Substack platform. We will also post links to our Substack account in our email newsletters for your convenience. https://cdsdailybrief.substack.com/

We encourage you to subscribe to our Substack account by clicking the link. By doing so, you will be able to access our newsletter on Substack and enjoy a range of new features, including the ability to search and browse past newsletters, comment on articles, and connect with other subscribers.

We appreciate your continued support and look forward to sharing our updates and insights with you on this new platform.

If you have any questions or concerns about this transition, please don’t hesitate to contact us.

---

Centre for Defence Strategies (CDS) is a Ukrainian security think tank. We operate since 2020. We publish this brief daily. If you would like to subscribe, please send us an email at cds.dailybrief@gmail.com

The CDC Daily Brief is produced with the support of the Kyiv School of Economics https://kse.ua/

Please note, that we subscribe only verified persons and can decline or cancel the subscription at our own discretion

We are an independent, non-government, non-partisan, and non-profit organisation. More at www.defence.org.ua

Our Twitter (in English) – https://twitter.com/defence_centre

Our Facebook (in Ukrainian) – https://www.facebook.com/cds.UA

Our brief is for information only and we verify our information to the best possible extent