Russia’s war on Ukraine. Daily Snapshot. 04.07.2023

Snapshot of the day:

General, humanitarian:

• More than 84,000 criminal investigations have been launched in Ukraine into the alleged Russian  war crimes, and there are 1,838 criminal charges;
• The Army of the Russian Federation attacked 10 regions of Ukraine the previous day. 11 people were killed and at least 37 injured in different Ukrainian Oblasts;
• Zaporizhzhya NPP lost power from the main external power transmission line with a voltage of 750 kV and had to switch to the only available 330 kV backup line. Russian forces placed objects looking like explosives on the ZNPP roof preparing for provocations. Ukraine strengthens its defenses in the northern directions in response to these developments;

Military:

• Over 40 combat clashes took place on different fronts;
• Ukrainian Defense Forces continue the offensive operation in the Melitopol and Berdyansk directions. In the Tokmak direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces are close to reaching the enemy’s main defensive line;
• The highest concentration of Russian forces along the entire front line is observed in the area of Svatove – Sieverodonetsk – Lysychansk;
• In the area west of Yakovlivka, Russian units were forced to retreat in the direction of Soledar;
• The intensity of Russian airstrikes south of Bakhmut (mainly Su-25 and Ka-52) increased significantly;
• The Russian command in the Bakhmut direction formed an excessive artillery group which requires separate analysis;
• With an unexpected maneuver, units of the “Tavriya” operational grouping entered the northern part of Urozhaine, went to the northern outskirts of Staromayorske and advanced to Kerminchyk, bypassing Novodonetske;

Possible operational situation development

• Ukrainian Defense Forces will develop an offensive in the direction of Stepove – Vasylivka, Orikhiv – Tokmak, Velyka Novosilka – Berdyansk;
• During this week, Russian forces will resume attacks from the area of Dibrova in the southern direction to Serebryanka;
• The enemy will try to hold the Kopani-Robotyne line, although it does not have enough strength for the purpose;

International:

• The Netherlands will provide Ukraine with another humanitarian aid package worth €118 million. European countries have allocated a total of €43 billion in aid for Ukrainian refugees, with Poland ($13 billion) and Germany ($12 billion) being ultimate leaders. Those two countries host the most Ukrainian refugees, 1.6 million and 1 million, correspondently.
• Italy has frozen about €2 billion of Russian “oligarchs” assets as a part of the E.U. sanctions against Russia. The Yermak-McFaul International Working Group on Sanctions called for tightening sanctions against the Russian military-industrial complex, for it still receives Western-made components.
• The Swiss government eyes the European Sky Shield air defense umbrella while holding for neutrality, ignoring the deteriorated European security environment and blocking assistance to Ukraine.
• The OSCE Parliamentary Assembly determined the Wagner Group as a terroristic organization and called on the member-states to designate it as such. The Vancouver Declaration endorsed Volodymyr Zelensky’s Peace Plan and underlined that peaceful solutions to end the war must be in full compliance with international law and principles of the 1975 Helsinki Final Act.

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Humanitarian

Currently, more than 84,000 criminal proceedings have been initiated in Ukraine regarding the war crimes committed by the Russian invaders, and there are 1,838 criminal charges, President Zelensky said.

Russian attacks

In Sumy, three people were killed, 21 people were injured due to an attack by Russian drones on a residential high-rise building, and the city declared a day of mourning on July 4.

Around 1:35 p.m. on July 4, Russian forces fired an Iskander-K cruise missile at the city of Pervomaisky in Kharkiv Oblast. According to the latest data, the number of wounded has increased to 43 including 12 are children. Glass, balconies and doors of nine high-rise buildings in the city were damaged. Two infants were hospitalized, one of them is in the ER due to severe injuries.

As of 9:00 a.m. Tuesday, July 4, the Army of the Russian Federation carried out attacks on 10 regions of Ukraine the previous day. 11 people were killed and at least 37 injured in different Ukrainian Oblasts.

Occupied territories

According to the National Resistance Center (NRC) of the Ukrainian MOD, the Russian invaders continue to mine the occupied territories in the south of Ukraine – in the Melitopol district of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Russian forces lay mines on dirt roads and sown fields. According to available information, the tracked minelayer GMZ-3, which mines the ground at a speed of 208 units per minute, was repeatedly spotted in the fields near Melitopol. The NRC emphasized that this activity endangered civilian lives.

On July 4 at 01:21, the Zaporizhzhia NPP lost power from the main external power transmission line with a voltage of 750 kV, the mayor of Enerhodar, Dmytro Orlov, reports. After that, the ZNPP had to switch to the only available backup line of 330 kV, which was repaired and reconnected to the station only on July 1. Director General of the IAEA, Raphael Grossi, said that he is concerned about the safety situation at the Zaporizhzhia NPP. He stressed that off-site electricity is required, for example, to pump cooling water for the plant. “This time the plant avoided a complete loss of all external power – which has happened seven times previously during the conflict – but the latest power line cut again demonstrates the precarious nuclear safety and security situation at the plant,” Director General Grossi said. According to operational information from the Ukrainian Armed Forces, foreign objects which look like explosive devices were placed on the outer roof of the third and fourth power units of the ZNPP. According to the military, these devices, if detonated, would not damage the power units but could be used to create a false narrative of shelling from Ukraine. Russian propaganda outlets like “RIA Novosti” have already disseminated reports suggesting that Ukraine plans to attack the ZNPP using high-precision weapons and kamikaze drones on July 5. In response to the events surrounding the ZNPP, Ukrainian defenders are reinforcing the northern border of the country with personnel and equipment, as confirmed by Lieutenant General Serhiy Naev, Commander of the Joint Forces.

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Operational situation

General conclusion:

• Ukrainian Defense forces continue the offensive operation in the Melitopol and Berdyansk directions. In the Tokmak direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces are close to reaching the enemy’s main defensive line;
• The area of Svatove – Kreminna west of the P66 highway should be considered the area where the main efforts of the Russian “Zapad (West)” troop grouping are concentrated;
• The highest concentration of Russian forces along the entire front line is observed in the area of Svatove – Sieverodonetsk – Lysychansk;
• In the area west of Yakovlivka, Russian units were forced to retreat in the direction of Soledar;
• Russian counterattacks in the area of Berkhivka somewhat pushed the Ukrainian Defense Forces out of the village itself, but the enemy could not advance beyond the reservoir;
• The 200th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 14th Army Corps of the Russian Northern Fleet defending in the north of the Soledar salient. It has suffered losses and is losing its ability to hold Dubovo-Vasylivka. A similar situation develops along the Slavyansk-Bakhmut road, where the “Veterany” battalion and up to two “Storm-Z” companies conduct combat operations;
• The intensity of Russian airstrikes south of Bakhmut (mainly Su-25 and Ka-52) increased significantly;
• The Russian command in the Bakhmut direction formed an artillery group consisting of the 305th artillery brigade, 27th, 1065th, 1182nd artillery regiments of the territorial troops, up to six separate divisions, which is clearly excessive and requires separate analysis;
• Advanced units of Ukrainian Defense Forces entered the city of Bakhmut, knocking out the positions of the 4th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 2nd Russian Army Corps, advanced beyond the Yubileyna street simultaneously in several quarters;
• Units of the 72nd separate motorized rifle brigade of the 3rd Russian Army Corps completely retreated to Klishchiivka and are already forced to fight hold the village;
• The “Tavriya” operational grouping has significantly increased its rate of advancement, putting pressure on the Russian command to transfer the 1430th motorized rifle regiment of the territorial troops to this direction in order to strengthen its grouping;
• The Russian command tried to hold the defense area around Urozhaine and prevent the further advance of the advanced units of the “Tavriya” grouping in the direction of Kerminchyk. The 37th, 60th, and 136th separate motorized rifle brigades were deployed there for the purpose. However, with an unexpected maneuver, units of the “Tavriya” grouping entered the northern part of Urozhaine, went to the northern outskirts of Staromayorske and advanced to Kerminchyk, bypassing Novodonetske;
• The consistent introduction of the 35th Army troops of the Eastern Military District into operation with the simultaneous involvement of troops of other groupings on the military theater in the defense zone of the “Vostok” troop grouping indicates that the operational situation development is negative for the enemy;
• The 34th separate motorized rifle brigade (mountain) of the 49th Army was transferred to Zaporizhzhia from the Kherson direction and deployed west of Remivka, which indicates that Russian forces lack operational reserves;
• 10 Russian regiments and brigades of the “Dnieper” troop grouping are not equipped with the necessary number of motor boats and regular boats for effective control over the Dnipro delta. They try to solve the problem by handing the vessels confiscated from poachers over to the troops with the help of the administration of Russian regions.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

• Over 40 combat clashes took place on different fronts.
• In the Kupyansk direction, units of the 27th separate motorized rifle brigade and the 7th motorized rifle regiment (the 18th motorized rifle division of the 11th Russian Army Corps) unsuccessfully attacked the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces near Novoselivske.
• In the Lyman direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces successfully repelled 7 Russian attacks in the areas south of Novoselivske, Novovodyanе, west of Dibrova in Luhansk Oblast and northeast of Serebryansk forestry and near Vesele in Donetsk Oblast. They attacked near Nevske, in the area of Serebryansk forest and achieved tactical success. Units of the 66th separate mechanized brigade of the Ukrainian Defense Forces under the pressure of the overwhelming Russian forces and their fire superiority were forced to retreat to the Nevske-Kovalivka frontier.
• Units of the 3rd Russian motorized rifle division repulsed the attacks of the Ukrainian Defense Forces near Makiyivka, the 331st parachute airborne regiment of the 98th airborne division – near Torske, the 55th separate motorized rifle brigade – near Yampolivka, the 127th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 2nd Army Corps – in the area of Zolotarivka.
• In the Bakhmut direction, under heavy fire from Russian aircraft and artillery, Ukrainian Defense Forces successfully repelled 9 Russian attacks in the areas of Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Hryhorivka, Mynkivka, Bohdanivka, west of Yahidne, Ivanivske, and southeast of Bila Hora of Donetsk Oblast.
• The 22nd separate mechanized brigade and 80th separate airborne assault brigade of the Ukrainian Defense Forces have cleared the forest strips west of Klishchiivka and advance further, units of the 28th separate mechanized brigade and 3rd separate assault brigade pushed back units of the Russian 83rd separate airborne assault brigade and approached Klishchiivka from the west and southwest. Ukrainian defense forces attacked near Kurdyumivka and Ozaryanivka. With blows from the north, Ukrainian Defense Forces pushed the 106th airborne division of the Russian Armed Forces from its positions in the Soledar area and are developing success. The 57th separate motorized infantry brigade is advancing with battles in Berkhivka. A Russian counterattack from Khromove in the direction of Ivanivske failed.
• In the Avdiivka direction, under enemy airstrikes and artillery fire, the 79th separate airborne assault brigade repelled 15 enemy attacks in the Maryinka area. Ukrainian Defense Forces liberated the village of Vesele, knocking out the 136th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 1st Army Corps from there. Fighting continues near Kruta Balka.
• Units of the 1st separate motorized rifle brigade and the 87th rifle regiment of the 1st Russian Army Corps slightly advanced to the southeast of Pervomaiske.
• In the Shakhtarsk direction, the 100th separate motorized rifle brigade and the 123rd rifle regiment of the 1st Russian Army Corps conducted unsuccessful offensive actions in the area of Rivnopillia of Donetsk Oblast. The 155th separate marines brigade of the Russian Pacific Fleet repulsed an attack of the Ukrainian Defense Forces in the area of Mykilske.
• In the Zaporizhzhia direction, the “Tavriya” operational grouping continues successful offensive actions in the Novosilka and Staromayorsk directions. It conducted offensive actions in the Novodarivka and Pryiutne directions, in the direction of Novodanylivka and Robotyne, captured the strongholds of the Russian 38th separate motorized rifle brigade near Luhivske and advanced in the direction of Robotyne. It knocked out the 291st motorized rifle regiment of the 42nd motorized rifle division from the outskirts of Robotyne and forced them to go on the defensive inside of the village and attacked near Pyatykhatky.
• Ukrainian 128th separate mountain assault brigade repulsed several powerful Russian counterattacks, cleared the territory north of Zherebyanky and continued the attack on the village, methodically destroying the 429th motorized rifle regiment of the 19th Russian motorized rifle division. The reserves the Russian command in this direction transfers from Vasylivka are destroyed by artillery and UAV strikes.
• The 38th separate mechanized brigade advanced in the direction of Novoprokopivka, striking at the junction of the defenses of the enemy’s 3rd BARS detachment and the 70th motorized rifle regiment of the 42nd motorized rifle division. The Russian garrison in Novoprokopivka (1430th motorized rifle regiment of the territorial troops) was reinforced by units of the 22nd separate SOF brigade. The 3rd BARS detachment lost its combat capability in these battles and was withdrawn to Novoprokopivka. The 249th motorized battalion of the Federal Service of the National Guard Troops of RF  “Akhmat-Yug (South)” is being moved from Kopani to the same village. It has not yet taken part in battles and has moved even deeper to the rear. Positions in Kopani were occupied by the remnants of the 291st motorized rifle regiment, the “Tsarskie Volki (Tsar’s wolves)” PMC detachment (formed by Roscosmos) and the 11th BARS detachment.
• The 47th separate artillery brigade of the Ukrainian Defense Forces is effectively operating in the Staromayorske area.
• The enemy’s 37th and 60th separate motorized rifle brigades repulsed attacks by the “Tavriya” operational grouping near Makarivka, Urozhaine, Pryiutne, and Staromayorske. Attempts to counterattack in the Robotyne area and push the Ukrainian Defense Forces into minefields were unsuccessful. The Russian 38th separate motorized rifle brigade achieved certain successes in the area of Novopokrovka, where it managed to completely occupy the village and advance on the other side of the road to Novodanylivka for 700 m.
• In the Kherson direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces created a well-fortified bridgehead from the dachas north of Oleshky to Bilohrudove and Hola Prystan. Russian forces are trying to destroy the bridgehead with missile and air strikes and fire strikes. The 8th artillery regiment of the 22nd Army Corps and the 1141st artillery regiment of the 7th air assault division of the Russian Airborne Forces are actively involved. The attacks of the Russian 108th air assault regiment, 7th air assault division and 10th separate SOF brigade were unsuccessful.

Change in enemy disposition:

• Units of the 228th motorized rifle regiment of the 90th tank division of the Central Military district operate near Kreminna, and the 85th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 2nd Army Corps of the 8th Army of the Southern Military district operates near Bilohorivka.
• Detachments of the 247th air assault regiment of the 7th air assault division of the Russian Airborne Forces operate in the Zaporizhzhia direction. Units of the 1430th motorized rifle regiment of the territorial troops operate near Robotyne, and units of the 22nd separate SOF brigade operate in the Orikhiv direction.
• In order to eliminate the bridgehead of the Ukrainian Defense Forces on the eastern bank of the Dnipro, the Russian military transferred the 127th separate reconnaissance brigade of the 22nd Army Corps, the 385th motorized rifle brigade of the territorial troops, and a collaborator “Kherson” BARS detachment to this area.
• In the Bakhmut direction, the operational formation of the enemy consists of two echelons, in the first there are: 4th, 57th, 72nd, 200th separate motorized rifle brigades, 11th, 31st separate airborne assault brigades, 51st airborne regiment of the 106th airborne division, 68th tank regiment of the 150th motorized rifle division (used in a decentralized manner), in the second: 1307th, 1428th, 1486th motorized rifle regiments of the territorial troops, 105th SF motorized regiment of mobilization reserve, 27th, 1182nd artillery regiment of the territorial troops. There are also paramilitary formations operating here – “Prizrak” volunteer battalion, “Fakel” and “Patriot” PMC detachments.
• In the lane of the enemy’s 143rd motorized rifle regiment to the west of Remivka the 34th separate motorized rifle brigade (mountain) of the 49th Army concentrates.

Escalation indicators:

• In the areas of Berdyansk and Kyrylivka Russian forces deployed units of attack helicopters on field platforms.

Possible operation situation developments:

• Ukrainian Defense Forces will develop an offensive in the direction of Stepove – Vasylivka, Orikhiv – Tokmak, Velyka Novosilka – Berdyansk;
• During this week, Russian forces will resume attacks from the area of Dibrova in the southern direction to Serebryanka. This is why they are transferring the 104th air assault regiment 76th air assault division to this area;
• The enemy will try to hold the Kopani-Robotyne line, although it does not have enough strength for the purpose. In the event the “Tavriya” operational grouping is successful in this direction, a threat will be created for the 503rd motorized rifle regiment defending in the area of Nesteryanka;
• The Russian command can prepare a local counterattack in the area between Hulyaipole and Velyka Novosilka.

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:

• As of the morning of July 4, there were 6 Russian ships at sea patrolling the areas near Crimea and along the coast of the Taman Peninsula. Among them is 1 surface ship which is a Kalibr missile carrier. It has up to 24 missiles on board.
• 9 Russian ships were detected in the Sea of Azov. They probably conduct combat coordination as part of the newly formed Azov Naval District.
• The 1127th Repair Plant of Missile and Artillery Weapons in the temporarily occupied Crimea restored several dozens of anti-aircraft guns of the 12.7 mm 2M-1 and 25 mm 2M-3M types (in service since 1948 and 1953, respectively). The occupiers claim that they placed some of these anti-aircraft installations on the “Tsezar Kunikov” and “Novocherkassk” landing ships, on the Soviet project 1135 “Ladny” and “Pytlivy” frigates, on the “Port Olga” floating base to strengthen the defense of the base in Sevastopol against possible Ukrainian naval drone and UAV attacks.
• On the northern pier of the Sevastopol Naval Base, a training session with practical shootings of anti-aircraft and anti-aircraft defense forces took place.
• Along the western and eastern coasts of the Black Sea and in the northern regions of Crimea, engineering fortifications and earth defense structures are built.
• Russian aviation continues to fly from the Crimean airfields of Belbek, Saky, Dzhankoy and Hvardiyske over the sea. Six fighter aircraft from Belbek and Saki Air Force Bases were involved in monitoring the surface and air conditions in the northwestern part of the Black Sea, namely two Su-27/30 (BELBEK), two Su-24MR and two Mig-29 UK (SAKI).
• The control of the air situation and the management of operational-tactical aviation over the Azov Sea were carried out by the A-50U Airborne Early Warning and Control (AEW&C) aircraft.
• On July 3, an RQ-4B reconnaissance UAV from the US Air Force operated in the central part of the Black Sea.

The “Grain Initiative”

• Every time the extension of the grain agreement approaches, Russia “plays on the brink of war” with food on the tables of people around the world. Such a statement was made by the permanent representative of Great Britain to the UN, Barbara Woodward, while noting that influential countries neglect their responsibilities, which is why Britain intends to become a leader of progress to change the situation. Woodward said she is “not sure” that the grain initiative will be revived. She reminded that the agreement expires on July 18 and the UK supports its extension, adding that this initiative has made a significant contribution. “I don’t take this promise at all at face value,” said Woodward, commenting on Russia’s promise to provide free grain to African countries.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 04.07.23

Personnel – almost 231,030  people (+770);

Tanks 4,059 (+2);

Armored combat vehicles – 7,908 (+9);

Artillery systems – 4,252 (+32);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 647 (+6);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 394 (+3);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 6,843 (+9);

Aircraft – 315 (0);

Helicopters – 309 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 3,602 (+29);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,264 (0);

Boats/ships – 18 (0).

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International

The Netherlands will provide Ukraine with another aid package worth €118 million. Eighty-three million will be streamed for reconstruction needs and health care system, another ten million will help victims of the Russia-blown Kakhovka dam, twenty-five million will be given to companies and NGOs contributing to Ukraine’s recovery, and almost nine hundred thousand will be given to Ukrainian human rights defenders. Overall, European countries have allocated a total of €43 billion in aid for Ukrainian refugees, according to Ukraine’s Ministry of Reintegration. The ultimate champions are Poland ($13 billion) and Germany ($12 billion), with the following Czechia ($3.2 billion), Spain ($2.4 billion), and Romania ($1.4 billion). At the moment, there’re 5.9 million Ukrainian refugees in Europe, with 1.6 million in Poland, and 1 million in Germany, according to UNHCR.

Italy has frozen about €2 billion of Russian “oligarchs” assets as a part of the E.U. sanctions against Russia, according to the country’s central bank. Yet, the E.U. still hasn’t come up with a legal scheme that would allow the money of the Russian state and supporters of the regime to be channeled for Ukraine’s needs. Meanwhile, the Yermak-McFaul International Working Group on Sanctions against Russia presents a new document on tightening sanctions against the Russian military-industrial complex. An analysis of 1,057 foreign components of Russian military equipment manufactured by 155 companies shows that Russia’s military supply chain has maintained access to critical Western technologies since the beginning of the war through 2022 and the first quarter of 2023. For instance, the Russian X-101 missile contained 53 critical components obtained from Western countries. “The 155 companies whose products were identified in Russian weapons accounted for $2.9 billion in sales of critical components to Russia in 2022,” the Secretary of the Group said.

The Swiss government voiced its interest in participating in the European Sky Shield air defense umbrella. It’s being criticized by those Swiss who believes it’s incompatible with the country’s long-standing tradition of neutrality. The deteriorated European security environment caused a U-turn of former neutral Sweden and Finland, while Switzerland keeps believing in neutrality, being protected by their neighbors. A neutrality mindset blocks the country’s direct and indirect (via third countries) security assistance to Ukraine, which was attacked by Russia while was a country with a non-block status.

The OSCE Parliamentary Assembly determined that the “actions of the Wagner Group on behalf of the Russian Government can rightly be characterized as terroristic in nature and intent, and that designation of the Wagner Group as a terrorist organization by national authorities is therefore justified” and encouraged OSCE participating States to “reinforce international norms which clearly recognize the terroristic nature of the Wagner Group and its actions, the responsibility of the Russian Federation as the State sponsor of said terrorist organization, and the inadmissibility of employing such actors in inter-State relations.” The Vancouver Declaration endorsed Volodymyr Zelensky’s Peace Plan and underlined that peaceful solutions to end the war must be in full compliance with international law and principles of the 1975 Helsinki Final Act. “The Russian Federation’s withdrawal of its forces and proxies from all areas of Ukraine is the only long-term solution to ending the current physical and psychological suffering of the people of Ukraine,” the Assembly stated.

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