Russia’s war on Ukraine. Daily Snapshot. 06.07.2023

Snapshot of the day:

General, humanitarian:

• Ukraine managed to return forty-five POWs and two children from Russian captivity.
• The Russians struck Lviv during the night. Ukrainian air defense systems shot down 7 out of 10 missiles. A rocket hit a multi-story residential building in Lviv. 6 people were killed, and 40 were injured.

Military: 

• The enemy’s maneuverability in Bakhmut is increasingly hindered.
• The enemy’s command is preparing for the “Tavriya” operational grouping to reach the main defensive line, but also considers the counterattacks in the Novopokrovka area, which may alter their tactical situation.
• The enemy command is making significant efforts to halt the advancement of the “Tavriya” grouping on the Pryiutne-Volodyne and Novozlatopil-Lyubimivka directions.
• In the Stepove-Vyshneve-Novoukrainske area, the enemy command is assembling a strike group to launch counterattacks against the right flank of the “Tavriya” Operational Grouping, which is currently engaged in the liberation of Pryiutne.
• The enemy’s “Zapad” Operational Group continues preparations for a renewed offensive on the Kupyansk and Lyman directions.
• The concentration of the 68th and 80th tank regiments in the narrow area of Klishchiivka, Odradivka – Mykolaivka indicates the enemy’s preparation for a counterattack through the village of Andriivka, bypassing Klishchiivka from the southwest direction.

International:

• Ukraine’s anti-corruption court has ruled to seize an An-140-100 aircraft belonging to Rostekh. Suupohjan Osuuspankki, a Finnish bank, allowed Russian billionaire Boris Rotenberg to withdraw funds shortly before the E.U. imposed sanctions.
• Finland has announced the delivery of an additional security aid package worth €105 million, which includes anti-aircraft weapons and ammunition. The U.S. is expected to announce its provision of cluster munitions to Ukraine, while the Human Rights Watch has called for both Ukraine and Russia to cease the use of this type of ammunition. None of the three countries are signatories to international treaties that ban the use of cluster munitions.
• Russia accused Finland of the “confrontational anti-Russian policy,” revoked permission for the Consulate General of Finland in St. Petersburg and declared nine diplomatic personnel from the embassy and the consulate general as “persona non grata.”

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POWs

Ukraine has returned 45 Ukrainian defenders from Russian captivity, including members of the Armed Forces, National Guard, State Border Guard Service, and two civilians. Among them are two officers, 41 enlisted personnel, a civilian employee of Azovstal, and a volunteer from Kherson.

Additionally, Ukraine was able to bring back two children (a 6-year-old boy and a 10-year-old girl) who had been unlawfully taken to Russia along with their mother, a military medic, who had been released earlier.

Russian Attacks

Russia attacked Lviv with “Kalibr” missiles. The launches were made from the Black Sea. Ukrainian air defense systems shot down 7 out of 10 missiles; however, there was an impact on the center quarter of Lviv (near the UNESCO-protected historical area).  

“This is the most devastating attack on the civilian population in Lviv Oblast since the start of the full-scale war,” said Maxym Kozitskyi, the head of the Lviv Regional State Administration.

One residential multi-apartment building was destroyed, and 35 sustained damage. According to the latest information, six people have died, and 40 have been injured. The youngest girl who died overnight was only 21 years old. The oldest victim was 95 years old.

The destruction of over 250 apartments, ten dormitories, a children’s home, two schools and a sanatorium school was reported.

One substation in Lviv has been damaged, leaving 150 customers without electricity.

In a statement during the national telethon, the spokesperson of the Air Force Command, Yuriy Ignat, said that the “Kalibr” missiles initially flew towards Kyiv but then sharply diverted towards Lviv: “The missiles launched from the Black Sea initially flew north, utilizing the terrain relief and the course of the Dnipro River, and then sharply changed course to the west.” In this context, Ignat emphasized once again that the F-16 could have helped prevent this: “This aircraft is part of the Air Defense System. It is designed to intercept airborne targets such as kamikaze drones and cruise missiles.”

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Operational situation (as of the morning 06.07.2023)

General conclusion: 

• The enemy’s maneuvering within Bakhmut is becoming more difficult.
• The enemy’s command anticipates the potential advancement of the Ukrainian “Tavriya” operational grouping towards the main defensive line. However, they also consider that Russian counterattacks in the Novopokrovka area could affect the overall tactical situation.
• The enemy command is making significant efforts to halt the advancement of the “Tavriya” grouping forces on the Pryiutne-Volodyne and Novozlatopil-Lyubimivka directions.
• In the Stepove-Vyshneve-Novoukrainske area, the enemy command is concentrating a strike group for counterattacks on the right flank of the “Tavriya” Operational Grouping, which is attempting to liberate Pryiutne.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

• There have been over 40 combat clashes in various directions. 
• On the Kupyansk direction, the enemy continues its attempts to advance in the area of Novoselivka and Novovodyanе in Luhansk Oblast. Ukrainian defenders are holding the defense steadfastly and have repelled all enemy attacks.
• On the Lyman direction, the enemy attempted to displace Ukrainian forces from positions in the area of Novoyehorivka in Luhansk Oblast but was unsuccessful. They also unsuccessfully attacked the Defence Forces’ positions south of Dibrova, in the area of Serebryansk Forest, Hryhorivka, and Yampil.
• The Defense Forces made two unsuccessful breakthrough attempts near Makiyivka; units of the Russian Airborne Forces repelled the assault on Defence Forces units at the Torsk bulge.
• On the Bakhmut direction, Ukrainian defenders have successfully repelled enemy attacks in the areas south of Berkhivka, Bohdanivka, and Orikhovo-Vasylivka in Donetsk Oblast. They continue to attack further south and north of the city of Bakhmut. They have consolidated their positions, advanced southwest of Berkhivka, west of Yahidne, and southwest of Bakhmut. They are storming enemy positions on the northern approaches to Bakhmut and have liberated a critical height near Klishchiivka. 
• Units of the enemy’s 72nd and 57th separate motorized rifle brigades are attempting to hold their positions along the Klishchiivka-Kurdyumivka line. The enemy’s command hastily concentrates reserves in their rear areas to secure the T-0513 road Bakhmut-Horlivka.
• On the Avdiivka direction, the Defense Forces continue to hold back the Russian forces’ advance in the area of Avdiivka. They have repelled all enemy attacks in the Maryinka area and have made progress west of Vesele. They have also captured enemy positions north of Opytne. 
• Russian forces have attempted 17 unsuccessful assaults in the Maryinka direction and repelled 9 Ukrainian attacks near Pervomaiske, Pivnichne, Nevelske, and Krasnohorivka. 
• Zaporizhzhia direction: 
• Melitopol direction (Pyatykhatky): Russian forces repelled an attack by the 128th separate mountain assault brigade near Zherebyanky. Russian forces have advanced to positions south of Pyatykhatky.
• Tokmak direction (Robotyne): Ukrainian small assault groups attacked Russian positions near Robotyne, Nesteryanka, and Kopani. The enemy remains determined to counterattack the left flank of the “Tavriya” Operational Grouping, which is continuing its advance towards Novodanylivka – Novoprokopivka. Units of the 38th separate motorized rifle brigade of the enemy, supported by a consolidated detachment of the 22nd separate SOF brigade and the 3rd BARS detachment, consistently attacked the positions of the forward units of the “Tavriya” grouping between Novopokrovka and the T-0803 road. They were able to advance westward by 1-1.5 km.
• Berdyansk direction (Velyka Novosilka): Russian forces repelled minor Ukrainian attacks near Staromayorsk and Urozhaine. Units of the Ukrainian “Tavria” Operational Grouping launched an attack near Pryiutne, inflicting significant losses on the enemy, advancing to Novozlatopil from the northwest, while Russian forces attacked near Rivnopil.
• On the Novozlatopil-Pryiutne section, the enemy deployed the 34th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 49th Army. The 336th separate marine brigade of the Baltic Fleet was partially withdrawn to the second echelon and is being deployed along the Pryiutne-Volodyne axis, likely to serve as a reserve in this direction. 
• From the elevated positions south of Pryiutne (to the west of Remivka), the enemy employs artillery and tank fire to impede the progress of the “Tavriya” Grouping towards the village. In the Novozlatopil area, the enemy has reinforced their defensive capabilities by consolidating the combat formations of the 143rd motorized rifle regiment (127th motorized rifle division) with support from units of the 34th separate motorized rifle brigade. This consolidation has halted the advance of the forward units of the “Tavriya” grouping northwest of the village.
• On the Kherson direction, the Defense Forces are maintaining their positions on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River. The Russian forces are carrying out reconnaissance of Ukrainian positions using small reconnaissance groups on boats. They have regained control over previously lost positions on the eastern bank of the Dnipro, which were affected by the flooding caused by the destruction of the Kakhovka HPP dam. The units of the 126th separate coastal defense brigade of the 22nd Army Corps and the 205th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 49th Army are persistently attempting to displace Ukrainian forces from their positions near Antonivskyi Bridge.
• The Defense Forces managed to transfer two small reinforcement groups from the western bank.

Change in enemy disposition: 

• In Maryinka, units of the 78th motorized rifle regiment of the 42nd motorized rifle division (Chechen formation “Akhmat-Sever(North)”) and the 58th Army of the Southern Military District are operating.
• Units of the 155th separate marine brigade of the Pacific Fleet and the 39th separate motorized rifle brigade (the 68th Army Corps of the Eastern Military District) launched an assault on Ukrainian positions near Mykilske. Artillery units of the 39th separate motorized rifle brigade were spotted in the area of Maryinka.
• The battalions of the 1430th motorized rifle regiment of the Russian Territorial Forces have reinforced the first line by occupying positions between Robotyne and Verbove, between the 291st and 70th motorized rifle regiments. The enemy’s 810th separate marines brigade has completed deployment along the Myrne-Kopani line, supporting the enemy’s 503rd motorized rifle regiment, which is defending on both sides of Nesteryanka.
• The 14th detachment of the BARS “Sarmat” has concentrated on the enemy’s main defense line, west of Verbove.
• The Russian Armed Forces have formed the 25th Army in the Central Military District and the 40th Army Corps in the Southern Military District. It is planned to include in the composition of the 25th Army a motorized rifle division, two separate motorized rifle brigades, and one separate tank brigade, and in the 40th Army Corps a motorized rifle division and a separate motorized rifle brigade.
• In the rear areas beyond the Klishchiivka-Kurdyumivka frontier, the following units are being concentrated: the 83rd separate airborne assault brigade (Zaitseve), the 68th tank regiment of the 150th motorized rifle division (east of Klishchiivka), the 80th tank regiment of the 90th tank division (Odradivka – Mykolaivka), the 1307th motorized rifle regiment of the Territorial Forces (Ivangrad – Zaitseve), and the 13th detachment of the BARS “Russkiy Legion” (Odradivka – Andriivski Stavky).

Escalation Indicators: 

• In the Bakhmut area, the enemy uses artillery shells loaded with the toxic substance “luizit”.

Possible operation situation developments: 

• The Defense Forces will continue the offensive on the Stepove-Vasylivka, Orikhiv-Tokmak, and Velyka Novosilka-Berdyansk directions.
• The enemy command may be preparing a local counterstrike in the area between Hulyaipole and Velyka Novosilka and is preparing for counterattacks in the area of Zherebyanky.
• As the Defense Forces advance towards the main defensive line of the enemy, the enemy command on the Zaporizhzhia direction will be forced to make a decision regarding the organization of defense either by consolidating the combat formations of the 49th and 58th Army or by reallocating reserves from other operational zones.
• The enemy’s “Zapad” Operational Group continues preparations for a renewed offensive on the Kupyansk and Lyman directions.
• The concentration of the 68th and 80th tank regiments in the narrow area of Klishchiivka, Odradivka – Mykolaivka indicates the enemy’s preparation for a counterattack through the village of Andriivka, bypassing Klishchiivka from the southwest direction.

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area: 

• As of July 6, there were 6 enemy ships at sea, carrying “Kalibr” missiles. They were positioned near Crimea and the coast of the Taman Peninsula. Among them are four surface ships and two submarines. They carry up to 22 missiles on board. 
• During the night of July 6, the enemy launched a strike from the sea towards Western Ukraine using 10 “Kalibr” missiles. Air defense systems intercepted 7 missiles, while 3 missiles hit Lviv. 
• The enemy’s aviation continues flights over the sea from the Crimean airfields of Belbek, Saky, Dzhankoy, and Hvardiyske. To control the surface and air situation in the northwestern part of the Black Sea, eight fighter aircraft from the airfields of Saky and Belbek were involved: four Su-27/30 (Belbek), two Su-24MR, and two MiG-29 UK (Saky).
• Air situation control and operational-tactical aviation management over the Azov Sea area were carried out by the A-50U Airborne Early Warning and Control (AEW&C) aircraft. 
• An increase in aviation equipment is observed at the Dzhankoy airfield (Crimea): 4 Su-25 aircraft and 32 helicopters, including 5 Ka-52, 3 Mi-24, 9 Mi-28, and 15 Mi-8.

“The Grain Initiative” 

• On Wednesday, July 5, according to Reuters, Russia stated that it had not made a final decision regarding the extension of the grain agreement, while the UN pledged to make every effort to extend the agreement until its expiration on July 17. Russia has consistently stated that it does not see any grounds for renewing the agreement after July 17 due to obstacles to its own grain and fertilizer exports. However, Peskov mentioned there is still time for the West to resolve these issues.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 06.07.23 

Personnel – almost 236,000 people (+600);

Tanks – 4,068 (+6);

Armored combat vehicles – 7,932 (+15);

Artillery systems – 4,310 (+22);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 657 (+1);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 404 (+9);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 6,888 (+23);

Aircraft – 315 (0);

Helicopters – 309 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 3,635 (+21);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,264 (0);

Boats/ships – 18 (0).

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International 

Ukraine’s anti-corruption court has ruled to seize an An-140-100 aircraft belonging to Rostekh, a sanctioned Russian company, estimated to be worth $4 million. 

Suupohjan Osuuspankki, a Finnish bank, allowed Russian billionaire Boris Rotenberg to withdraw funds shortly before the E.U. imposed sanctions, according to Ilta-Sanomat. Despite the bank’s internal control service recommending against transferring funds to Rotenberg, a close associate of Putin, he managed to move an undisclosed amount of money, pledging not to send it to Russia or Belarus.

Finland has announced the delivery of an additional security aid package worth €105 million, which includes anti-aircraft weapons and ammunition. In total, Finland has provided Ukraine with assistance amounting to €1.2 billion, ranking ninth in terms of monetary value and seventh in terms of GDP contribution. Minister of Defense Antti Häkkänen stated that supporting Ukraine is crucial for Finland’s security since the war’s outcome will significantly impact the security order in Europe and Finland for many years to come. 

The U.S. is expected to announce its provision of cluster munitions to Ukraine, according to the NYT. However, Human Rights Watch has called for both Ukraine and Russia to cease the use of this type of ammunition. It is worth noting that neither the U.S., Russia, nor Ukraine are signatories to international treaties that ban the use of cluster munitions.

Russia made a demarche to the Finish Ambassador in Moscow, accusing the country of “confrontational anti-Russian policy” and “discrimination against Russians on the basis of national origin in the issuance of entry visas, creating obstacles to the normal operation of Russian missions in this country, including the reduction of their staff by declaring employees “persona non grata.” Russians expressed their dissatisfaction with the “parameters of Finland’s entry into NATO,” which was called a “threat to the security” of Russia, and accused the Finns of “encouraging the Kyiv regime to go to war and pumping it with Western weapons means clearly hostile actions against our country.” As a result, Moscow revoked permission for the Consulate General of Finland in St. Petersburg and declared nine diplomatic personnel from the embassy and the consulate general as “persona non grata.”

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