Russia’s war on Ukraine. Daily Snapshot. 08.07.2023

Operational situation

General conclusion: 

• Ukrainian Defense forces have made significant tactical gains in the Bakhmut area and continue offensive operations in at least three other areas of the front;
• The command of the Russian Armed Forces deployed almost all the troops of the Eastern Military District to the south of Ukraine.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

• Over 30 combat clashes took place on different fronts.
• In the Kupyansk direction, the enemy deployed the forces of the 27th separate motorized rifle brigade, the 7th motorized rifle regiment (the 18th motorized rifle division, the 11th Army Corps of the Baltic Fleet) and the 5th BARS detachment, tried to advance in the Novoselivske and Stelmakhivka areas of Luhansk Oblast. Units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled all Russian attacks. Nevertheless, Russian forces managed to take control of the industrial zone in Novoselivske, advance deep into the village and slightly advance to the south of Novoselivske.
• In the Lyman direction, Russian forces conducted assaults and tried to dislodge Ukrainian troops from the positions they occupied to the west of Karmazynivka, in the area northwest of Berestove, Luhansk Oblast. They had no success.
• Units of the Russian 76th air assault division captured new areas in the Serebryansk Forest area. Russian forces repelled the attacks of Ukrainian Defense Forces near Makiyivka, Yampolivka and Torske.
• Ukrainian Defense Forces attacked the positions of the 15th and 30th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 2nd Army in the area of Karmazynivka, near Nevske, Dibrova, Bilohorivka, in the direction of Shypylivka.
• In the Bakhmut direction, under heavy Russian aircraft and artillery fire, Ukrainian Defense Forces successfully repelled all Russian attacks in the Berkhivka area of Donetsk Oblast and advanced west of Yahidne.
• The 57th Russian separate motorized rifle brigade successfully repulsed the attack of Ukrainian Defense Forces south of Ozaryanivka in the area of the former checkpoint “Mayorske”.
• In the Avdiivka direction, Russian forces supported by aviation unsuccessfully attacked in the areas of Novokalynove, Avdiivka, and Nevelske. Under the Russian artillery fire, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled all attacks in the area of Pervomaiske, Novomykhailivka, and Maryinka. The 255th motorized rifle regiment (20th motorized rifle division of the 8th Army) and the Chechen “Akhmat” detachments operate near the latter.
• Units of the 1st separate motorized rifle brigade and “Storm-Z” detachments repelled the attacks of Ukrainian Defense Forces in the areas of Severne, Pervomaiske and Vodyane.
• Zaporizhzhia direction: Ukrainian Defense Forces continue their offensive operations in the Melitopol and Berdyansk directions. They have entrenched at the achieved lines, inflicting damage through artillery fire and engaging in counter-battery combat. The successful operations by Ukrainian Defense Forces, coupled with significant losses among Russian manpower, have led to an increase in refusals to participate in combat operations within Russian occupation forces. In the Rozivka area of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, for instance, approximately 20 Russian soldiers refused to engage in combat missions at advanced positions. As a result, they were apprehended and transferred to the premises of the Rozivka district court.
• Melitopol Direction (Pyatykhatky): Ukrainian Defense Forces were particularly active in the direction of Pyatykhatky-Zherebyanka.
• Tokmak direction (Robotyne): Ukrainian Defense Forces attacked in the directions Novofedorivka – Verbove, Nesteryanka – Kopani.
• Berdyansk direction (Velyka Novosilka): the enemy carried out unsuccessful offensive actions in the area of Blahodatne of Donetsk Oblast. Russian troops attacked and recaptured several positions northwest of Staromayorske.
• Ukrainian Defense Forces attacked to the south and southwest of Velyka Novosilka near Staromayorske, Urozhaine, Novodonetske and Pryiutne.
• In the Kherson direction, Russian forces concentrate their main efforts on preventing the further advance of Ukrainian troops; the opposing sides shell each other’s positions on the opposite banks with artillery.
• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, Russia maintained a presence of five combat-ready ships in the Black Sea, but no Kalibr cruise missile carriers were observed. The Russian Navy displays signs of unease and caution at sea, actively seeking out the safest base locations and frequently maneuvering its vessels.
• There is one Russian ship in the Sea of Azov and up to eight ships in the Mediterranean Sea; among them is one Kalibr sea-launched cruise missile carrier with a total salvo of up to 16 missiles.

Change in enemy disposition: 

• The Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Naval Forces has been replenished with a small Karakurt-class “Zyklon” missile ship, which carries eight Kalibr cruise missiles and can be upgraded as a naval platform for Zircon hypersonic missiles.

Possible operation situation developments: 

• Ukrainian Defense Forces will develop an offensive in the direction of Stepove – Vasylivka, Orikhiv – Tokmak, Velyka Novosilka – Berdyansk;
• Russian command may prepare a local counterattack in the area between Hulyaipole and Velyka Novosilka and is getting ready for counterattacks in the Zherebyanky area;
• Once Ukrainian Defense Forces reach the main Russian defensive line, the Russian command in the Zaporizhzhia direction will be forced to make a decision regarding the organization of defense on it either by consolidating the battle formations of the 49th and 58th Armies, or by transferring reserves from other operational zones;
• The deployment of the 68th and 80th tank regiments in the confined area of Klishchiivka, Odradivka, and Mykolaivka suggests that the enemy is making preparations for a counterattack. It is anticipated that the counterattack will occur through Andriivka, bypassing Klishchiivka from the southwestern direction.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 08.07.23 

Personnel – almost 233,440 people (+630);

Tanks 4,074 (+4);

Armored combat vehicles – 7,953 (+9);

Artillery systems – 4,346 (+16);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 661 (+3);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 410 (+2);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 6,914 (+16);

Aircraft – 315 (0);

Helicopters – 309 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 3,666 (+14);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,271 (0);

Boats/ships – 18 (0).

Today’s reading recommendation: https://defence-blog.com/nato-ignores-tough-lessons-from-the-ukraine-war/

Centre for Defence Strategies (CDS) is a Ukrainian security think tank. We operate since 2020. We publish this brief daily. If you would like to subscribe, please send us an email at cds.dailybrief@gmail.com

The CDC Daily Brief is produced with the support of the Kyiv School of Economics https://kse.ua/

Please note, that we subscribe only verified persons and can decline or cancel the subscription at our own discretion

We are an independent, non-government, non-partisan, and non-profit organisation. More at www.defence.org.ua

Our Twitter (in English) – https://twitter.com/defence_centre Our Facebook (in Ukrainian) – https://www.facebook.com/cds.UA

Our brief is for information only and we verify our information to the best possible extent