CDS Daily Brief. 09.07.2023

Operational situation

General conclusion: 

• The Defense Forces have conducted offensive actions on at least three front sectors.
• The lack of rotations in the Russian Airborne Forces confirms the absence of operational reserves in Russian strike formations.
• The artillery ammunition minimum requirement for the Armed Forces of Ukraine is 110,000 rounds per month, with a desired need of up to 300,000 rounds. The defense industry of allied nations, with the support of Japan, is ramping up monthly production from 65,000 to 107,000 rounds, considering the sustainment of their own defense capabilities.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

• There have been over 30 combat clashes in different directions.
• On the Kupyansk direction, the enemy conducted aerial strikes in the areas of Kyslivka in Kharkiv Oblast and Novoyehorivka in Luhansk Oblast. They attempted to advance in the areas of Berestove, Novoselivske, and Stelmakhivka with the forces of the 27th separate motorized rifle brigade, 7th motorized rifle regiment (of the 18th mechanized brigade, 11th Army Corps of the Baltic Fleet), and the 5th BARS detachment. Units of the 1st Tank Army of the Western Military District attacked the positions of the Defense Forces near Pishchane.
• On the Lyman direction, the enemy carried out assault operations and attempted to displace the Defense Forces from their positions in the Vesele area in Donetsk Oblast but was unsuccessful. Russian forces made unsuccessful attempts to cross the Zherebets River between Svatove and Kreminna and attacked from Karmazynivka towards Chereshyna. Combat in the Kreminna area involves enemy units of the 24th separate SOF brigade and the 285th artillery brigade. The enemy’s “Tsentr (Center)” Operational Grouping achieved success in repelling the Defense Forces’ attacks near Torske and made progress near Spirne.
• The Defense Forces struck a munitions depot near Sorokyne using Storm Shadow missiles.
• On the Bakhmut direction, the enemy conducted aerial strikes in the Ivanivske, Druzhkivka, Bila Hora, and Druzhba areas. 
• The Defense Forces advanced more than 1 km south of Bakhmut; fighting continues north of the city and for the heights north and west of Klishchiivka, where the 83rd separate airborne assault brigade of the enemy replaced the 31st separate mountain assault brigade two weeks ago, which had suffered losses in the battles.
• Russian forces repelled Ukrainian attacks near Berkhivka and Kurdyumivka. 
• On the Avdiivka direction, the enemy conducted unsuccessful offensive actions in the areas of Avdiivka, Novokalynove, Stepove, Pervomaiske, Nevelske, Maryinka, and Novomykhailivka in Donetsk Oblast. Despite enemy artillery fire, the Defense Forces units repelled all attacks in the city area. 
• On the Zaporizhzhia direction, the Defense Forces continue their offensive operations on the Melitopol and Berdyansk directions. They consolidate their positions at achieved frontlines, inflict fire damage, and engage in counter-battery warfare.
• On the Melitopol direction (Pyatykhatky), Ukrainian forces have withdrawn from the Pyatykhatky-Zherebyanky area. 
• On the Tokmak direction (Robotyne), Russian forces have repelled two attacks by units of the “Tavriya” Operational Grouping near Marfopil and Robotyne. 
• On the Berdyansk direction (Velyka Novosilka), the enemy has conducted unsuccessful offensive actions in the Blahodatne area of Donetsk Oblast. The Defense Forces have unsuccessfully attacked near Pryiutne, Staromayorsk, Rivnopil, and Urozhaine.
• The 305th artillery brigade of the enemy has conducted a fire strike on units of the “Tavriya” Operational Grouping near Novodarivka.
•  On the Kherson direction, the enemy is concentrating its primary efforts on preventing further advancement of the Defense Forces. The opposing sides engage in mutual artillery shelling of positions on opposite banks. 
• In the Black Sea-Azov Sea operational area, there were 5 enemy ships on combat duty in the Black Sea and one in the Azov Sea. In the Mediterranean, there were up to 8 enemy ships. Russia continues to violate the International Convention for the Safety of Life at Sea 1974 (SOLAS) by disabling the Automatic Identification System (AIS) on civilian vessels in the Azov Sea waters.

Change in enemy disposition: not identified

Escalation indicators:

• The United States has expressed readiness to supply the Armed Forces of Ukraine with DPICM cluster munitions, additional guided anti-aircraft missiles for the Patriot air defense system, and HIMARS rocket artillery systems.

Possible operation situation developments: 

• The Defense Forces will continue the offensive in the directions of Stepove-Vasylivka, Orikhiv-Tokmak, and Velyka Novosilka-Berdyansk.
• As the Defense Forces reach the enemy’s main defense line, the enemy command on the Zaporizhzhia direction will be forced to make a decision regarding the organization of defense either by consolidating the combat formations of the 49th and 58th Armies or by reallocating reserves from other operational zones.
• The concentration of the 68th and 80th tank regiments in the narrow sector of Klishchiivka, Odradivka-Mykolaivka, indicates the enemy’s preparation for a counterattack through Andriivka village, bypassing Klishchiivka from the southwest direction.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 09.07.23 

Personnel – almost 234,040 people (+600);

Tanks – 4,078 (+4);

Armored combat vehicles – 7,964 (+11);

Artillery systems – 4,366 (+20);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 668 (+7);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 413 (+3);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 6,929 (+15);

Aircraft – 315 (0);

Helicopters – 309 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 3,685 (+19);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,271 (0);

Boats/ships – 18 (0).

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