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CDS Daily Brief. 10.07.2023

Operational situation

General conclusion: 

  • The Defense Forces launched offensive operations on at least three sectors of the front, including the Bakhmut direction, with the aim of weakening the defense of the Russian Armed Forces prior to the liberation of the territory, while accepting slower progress.
  • The “Zapad (West)” Operational Grouping of the enemy is trying to seize the initiative on the Lyman direction.
  • On the Kupyansk direction, there are concentrations of units and formations of the 1st Tank Army, 6th Army, and most of the forces of the 11th Army Corps of the Baltic Fleet of the Russian Armed Forces, which essentially represent enemy’s most combat-ready components.
  • The enemy’s command considers the Kupyansk direction to be convenient for delivering a sudden and powerful strike as part of a strategic defensive operation in the Southwest Theater of Military Operations.
  • Only on two operational directions, Kupyansk and Zaporizhzhia, the enemy has established a traditional military command system, “battalion-regiment-division-army.” On the remaining directions, the enemy’s troop groupings have a complex and intricate command structure.
  • The enemy’s “Zapad” Operational Grouping may consist of up to 3 brigades, 9 regiments, 9 regiments of the Territorial Forces, and up to 6 battalion-level formations. Their combined strength is estimated to be around 50,000 personnel, with an arsenal consisting of up to 420 tanks, 650 armored combat vehicles, 470 artillery pieces, mortars, multiple rocket launch systems (MLRS), and 6-8 surface-to-air missile launcher units.
  • The enemy’s Operational Grouping reserves include one motorized rifle regiment and up to two battalions of the Territorial Forces. 

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

  • There have been over 30 combat clashes in different directions. 
  • On the Kupyansk direction, the enemy unsuccessfully attacked near Berestove, Novoselivske, and Stelmakhivka. 
  • The enemy’s defensive positions, extending from the state border to Dvorichna village, are held by units of the 138th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 6th Army, with the objective of defending along the Oskil River to secure the right flank of the tactical grouping deployed in the Lyman Pershyi-Vilshana area. Along the Vilshana-Pershotravneve frontier, the 25th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 6th Army, reinforced by the battalion of the 347th motorized rifle regiment of the Territorial Forces (second echelon, defense area – Tokarivka village), has been assigned the task of assisting in breaching the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ defense in the Synkivka area and to advance southwards along the Oskil River towards Petropavlivka, should an offensive be launched by the adjacent flank of the 138th separate motorized rifle brigade.
  • The main forces of the enemy’s “Zapad (West)” Operational Grouping (the 2nd motorized rifle division of the 47th Tank Division, 1st Tank Army) are concentrated in the area of Arapivka-Verkhnya Duvanka-Orlyanske -Mykolaivka. Their possible objective is to break through the defense of Ukrainian Armed Forces units on the Ivanivka-Kyslivka sector and advance towards the Pishchane -Tabaivka line or support the offensive of the 25th separate motorized rifle brigade towards Vilshana -Petropavlivka in the direction of Kupyansk. 
  • Between Borova and Kupyansk, the forces of the 11th Army Corps of the Coastal Troops of the Baltic Fleet (18th motorized rifle division) and the 27th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 1st Tank Army are operating, attempting to capture Novoselivske for a long time without success. These attacks aim to create favorable conditions for further advancement towards Stelmakhivka.
  • On the Lyman direction, the enemy conducted assault operations and attempted to displace the Defense Forces from their positions in the area west of Spirne and Vesele in Donetsk Oblast, but was unsuccessful.
  • Units of the 3rd separate motorized rifle division of the enemy repelled attacks by the Defense Forces near Novovodyanе, the 234th air assault regiment of the 76th Air assault division in the Nevske area, the 331st parachute airborne regiment of the 98th airborne division in the Torske area, and the 127th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 2nd Army Corps near Bilohorivka.
  • On the Bakhmut direction, the Defense Forces repelled enemy attacks in the Dubovo-Vasylivka and Berkhivka areas of Donetsk Oblast. They advanced west of Andriivka but failed to capture the dominant height. The Defense Forces’ advance between Soledar and Yakovlivka is approximately 2 km. The strike of the M270 MLRS almost destroyed an enemy battalion from the composition of the 106th Airborne Division. 
  • The 72nd separate motorized rifle brigade of the enemy’s 3rd Army Corps is unable to provide adequate force density in defense, therefore its combat formations are reinforced by units of the 106th Airborne Division.
  • On the Avdiivka direction, the Defense Forces continue to hold back the advance of Russian forces in the Avdiivka area. They have repelled all enemy attacks in the area of Maryinka. Units of the 136th separate motorized rifle brigade of the enemy’s 1st Army Corps have made slight progress to the southwest of Vesele. 
  • Zaporizhzhia direction: 
  • Melitopol direction (Pyatykhatky): The 128th separate mountain assault brigade has withdrawn personnel from Pyatykhatky but maintains positions between Zherebyanky and Pyatykhatky.
  • Tokmak direction (Robotyne): The enemy forces, including the volunteer battalion “Vostok (East),” supported by aviation and artillery, repelled Ukrainian attacks near Robotyne, Novodanylivka, and Mala Tokmachka. The assault group of the “Tavriya” Operational Grouping breached the Russian defense at the junction between Russian regiments to the northeast of Robotyne; the battle for control over the positions of the 7th company (of the 71st motorized rifle regiment of the 42nd motorized rifle division of the 58th Army) is ongoing. 
  • Units of the “Tavriya” Operational Grouping attacked enemy positions on the heights to the northeast of Kopani, defended by the 11th BARS detachment and the PMC “Tsarskie Volky” detachment, broke through, reached the western outskirts of Robotyne, and struck the flank of the 291st motorized rifle regiment, inflicting significant losses. They conducted a raid on the combat formations of the 70th motorized rifle regiment, causing even greater losses, but were halted yesterday by a heavy downpour. The enemy’s losses defending Novodarivka are estimated at up to 50%.
  • Berdyansk direction (Velyka Novosilka): The enemy conducted unsuccessful offensive actions in the area of Novomykhailivka, Donetsk Oblast. Units of the Ukrainian “Tavriya” Operational Grouping (36th separate marines brigade and 31st separate mechanized brigade) advanced to Pryiutne from the north and are currently located approximately 2 km from the village, closing in on the encirclement of the remnants of the enemy’s 60th separate motorized rifle brigade in the village. Russian forces made unsuccessful counterattacks from Urozhaine towards Blahodatne. In the Staromayorske-Urozhaine area, the 35th separate marines brigade and the 4th separate tank brigade continue their offensive, without attempting to capture the settlement, instead destroying the enemy with long-range artillery strikes and eliminating the reserves attempting to break through to Staromayorske. The 37th separate marines brigade has resumed its advance towards Kreminchyk and Novodonetske.
  • On the Kherson direction, the enemy continues to restore positions on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River, which were previously flooded after the destruction of the Kakhovka HPP dam. 
  • In the Black Sea-Azov Sea maritime operational area, there were 6 enemy ships on combat duty in the Black Sea and 1 in the Azov Sea, while in the Mediterranean, there were up to 8 enemy ships.

Change in enemy disposition: 

  • Units of the 120th separate artillery brigade of the 41st Army of the Central Military District operate near Kotlyarivka (previously deployed near Kreminna.) Additionally, the 3rd separate SOF brigade has been relocated to this area from the Lyman direction. 
  • In the area of Berkhivka, the 98th airborne division is defending.
  • The second echelon of the enemy’s “Zapad(West)” Operational Grouping consists of up to nine territorial defense regiments, including the 1427th, 1431st, and 1432nd motorized rifle regiments of territorial defense, two detachments of the BARS formation (one of which is engaged in combat operations between Yahidne and Volodymyrivka), and 4-5 detachment of the “Storm-Z” formation, which are consistently deployed at the front line. 
  • Between Svatove and Troitske, a defensive line has been established along the Troitske-Pokrovske-Nyzhnia Duvanka-Svatove axis, which covers the main logistical route of the “Zapad” Operational Grouping – the T-1312 road.
  • On the Kupyansk direction, the enemy has formed an artillery grouping consisting of the 45th The 5th Artillery Brigade (of High Power/Capacity), the 147th self-propelled artillery regiment of the 2nd Motorized Rifle Division, the 288th Artillery Brigade of the 1st Tank Army, the 9th Artillery Brigade of the 6th Army, and the 244th Artillery Brigade of the 11th Army Corps. 
  • The 331st separate marines brigade of the Baltic Fleet is concentrated in Volodyne.

Possible operation situation developments: 

  • The Defense Forces will continue the offensive in the directions of Stepove-Vasylivka, Orikhiv-Tokmak, and Velyka Novosilka-Berdyansk.
  • As the Defense Forces reach the enemy’s main defensive line, the enemy command on the Zaporizhzhia direction will be forced to make a decision regarding the organization of defense. They can either reinforce their current battle formations of the 49th and 58th Armies or reallocate reserves from other operational zones.
  • The concentration of the 68th and 80th tank regiments in the narrow area of Klishchiivka, Odradivka-Mykolaivka indicates the enemy’s preparation for a counterattack through Andriivka, bypassing Klishchiivka from the southwest direction.
  • The concentration of up to 4-5 battalions supported by a tank battalion in the Kreminchyk area is a sign of preparation for a counterattack in that direction.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 10.07.23 

Personnel – almost 234,480 people (+440);

Tanks – 4,085 (+7);

Armored combat vehicles – 7,966 (+2);

Artillery systems – 4,371 (+5);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 668 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 414 (+1);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 6,937 (+8);

Aircraft – 315 (0);

Helicopters – 309 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 3,686 (+1);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,271 (0);

Boats/ships – 18 (0).

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