CDS Daily Brief. 11.07.2023

Operational situation

General conclusion: 

• Ukrainian Defense Forces gained fire control over Bakhmut;
• Ukrainian Defense Forces conduct offensive actions on at least three sections of the front;
• The Russian “Zapad (West)” operational grouping is increasing the intensity of offensive actions in the Kupyansk direction, trying to create favorable conditions to start its offensive in the Lyman direction.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

• Over 30 combat clashes took place on different directions.
• On the Kupyansk direction, Russian “Storm-Z” assault units achieved minor successes in Novoselivske, Luhansk Oblast, advanced south of Vilshana. Units of the Russian 27th separate motorized rifle brigade captured positions near Kuzemivka. Units of the Russian 423rd motorized rifle regiment of the 4th tank division repelled Ukrainian assaults near Karmazynivka.
• On the Lyman direction, Russian troops repelled the attacks of the Ukrainian Defense Forces in the area of Dibrova. The 331st parachute airborne regiment of the 98th airborne division successfully attacked near Torske. The 237th air assault regiment of the 76th air assault division attacked in the Serebryansk Forest area. The attack of the 14th “Prizrak” battalion of the 1st Army Corps west of Spirne was repulsed by Ukrainian Defense Forces.
• On the Bakhmut direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces established fire control over Bakhmut and advanced south of the city.
• The Russian 200th separate motorized rifle brigade (the 14th Army Corps of the Russian North Fleet) repelled the attacks of Ukrainian Defense Forces in the Berkhivka area. The 4th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 2nd Army Corps and the 80th tank regiment of the 90th tank division defended in the Klishchiivka area. Units of the 200th separate motorized rifle brigade unsuccessfully counterattacked in the Berkhivka area, and the 123rd separate motorized rifle brigade – in the Vesele area.
• Ukrainian Defense Forces attacked near Andriivka and repulsed the “Storm-Z” units’ attacks near Hryhorivka and Dubovo-Vasylivka.
• On the Avdiivka direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled attacks near Severne. The units of the Russian 114th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 1st Army Corps were repelled near Krasnohorivka, the 150th motorized rifle division – in the Maryinka and Novomykhailivka areas, the 132nd separate motorized rifle brigade – near Novokalynove, the 277th special battalion – near Stepove, the 1st separate motorized rifle brigade – Pervomaiske, other formations of the 1st Army Corps – near Nevelske.

Zaporizhzhya direction:

• Melitopol direction (Pyatykhatky): assault groups of the 128th separate mountain assault brigade of Ukrainian Defense Forces were active at the Pyatykhatky – Zherebyanka line.
• Tokmak direction (Robotyne): the troops of the “Tavriysk” Operational Grouping attacked south of Orikhiv and advanced 2 km northeast of Robotyne to the defense line of the 71st motorized rifle regiment of the 42nd motorized rifle division; advanced towards Novopokrovka.
• Berdyansk direction (Velyka Novosilka): troops of the “Tavriysk” Grouping operated near Pryiutne, advancing south from Rivnopil, near Staromayorske and Urozhaine.
• Units of the 34th separate motorized rifle brigade (mountain) of the Russian 49th Army repulsed the attack of the “Tavriysk” Grouping south of Velyka Novosilka.
• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, there were 2 Russian ships on combat duty in the Black Sea, 1 in the Azov Sea, and up to 8 Russian ships in the Mediterranean.

Change in enemy disposition: 

• Units of the Russian 58th Special Purpose Brigade of the 1st Army Corps operate in the Bakhmut direction.
• Units of the 9th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 1st Russian Army Corps and the 10th tank regiment of the 3rd Russian Army Corps operate in the Avdiivka direction.

Escalation indicators:

• Russian forces sharply intensified missile-aircraft, missile and artillery strikes on the port infrastructure of Mykolaiv and Odesa Oblasts.

Possible operation situation developments: 

• Ukrainian Defense Forces will develop an offensive in the direction of Stepove – Vasylivka, Orikhiv – Tokmak, Velyka Novosilka – Berdyansk;
• Once Ukrainian Defense Forces reach the main Russian defensive line, the Russian command on the Zaporizhzhia direction will be forced to make a decision regarding the organization of defense. They can either reinforce their current battle formations of the 49th and 58th Armies or reallocate reserves from other operational zones.
• The concentration of up to 4-5 battalions supported by a tank battalion in the Kremenchik area is a sign of preparation for a counterattack in that direction.
• In the event of a successful Ukrainian Forces’ breakthrough through the Russian main defensive line in the Zaporizhzhia direction, the Russian command in the Southwest Theater of Military Operations may launch a major strike in the Kupyansk direction from the area of Mykolaivka – Nova Tarasivka – Yahidne – Orlianka towards Stepova Novoselivka – Petropavlivka and another strike from the area of Horobyivka – Vilshana – Lyman Pershyi – Masyutivka in the direction of Synkivka – Kucherivka or Petropavlivka.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 11.07.23 

Personnel – almost 235,020 people (+540);

Tanks – 4,089 (+4);

Armored combat vehicles – 7,983 (+17);

Artillery systems – 4,385 (+14);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 672 (+4);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 414 (0);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 6,966 (+29);

Aircraft – 315 (0);

Helicopters – 310 (+1);

UAV operational and tactical level – 3,693 (+7);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,271 (0);

Boats/ships – 18 (0).

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