CDS Daily Brief. 13.07.2023

Operational situation

The Ukrainian Defense Forces continue their offensive operation on the Bakhmut, Melitopol, and Berdyansk directions. The enemy continues concentrating its primary efforts on the Kupyansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Mariupol directions, where heavy fighting is ongoing.

General conclusion: 

• Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations on at least three sectors of the front and achieved success in some areas.
• Russian and Ukrainian forces engaged in battles along the Kupyansk-Svatove and Avdiivka-Donetsk sectors and in the vicinity of Kreminna, where Russian forces achieved limited success.
• Ukrainian Defense Forces continued their offensive actions in the Bakhmut area and stormed Russian positions in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
• Ukrainian Defense Forces inflicted substantial damage on the air defense systems of the Russian 71st anti-aircraft missile brigade on the Zaporizhzhia front, resulting in an enhanced capability for launching air-launched cruise missile strikes.
• The Ukrainian 47th and 65th separate mechanized brigades have completed the demining of a large minefield and approached its southern edge. As a result, the Russian military command is forced to increase the number of troops in the Tokmak direction. The detachments of the PMCs “Redut” and “Plamya” remain in reserve in the Tokmak area.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

• There have been over 35 combat clashes on various fronts. 
• On the Lyman direction, the enemy conducted unsuccessful offensive operations in the areas of Novoselivske, Zolotarivka, Verkhnyokamianka, and Spirne in Luhansk Oblast. They were unable to hold their positions in Torske and withdrew. They unsuccessfully attacked near Vesele. 
• Russian forces advanced to the east of Kotlyarivka and repelled Ukrainian attacks near Novoselivske and Karmazynivka. Intense battles are taking place in the Kreminna area. Units of the 21st separate motorized rifle brigade from the 2nd Army captured a height to the east of Nevske near Zhuravka ravine.
• On the Bakhmut direction, the Defense Forces achieved partial success in the of Bila Hora – Andriivka and Bila Hora – Kurdyumivka directions. They secured a position on a height east of Orikhovo-Vasylivka and reached the E40 highway connecting Bakhmut and Slovyansk. They also attacked the southwestern outskirts of Berkhivka and repelled enemy attacks near Hryhorivka.
• The enemy repelled attacks by the Defense Forces near Sil and Andriivka. They launched a counterattack on Ukrainian positions on the northern outskirts of Klishchiivka, displacing Ukrainian units from the vicinity and the surrounding dominant heights.
• On the Avdiivka direction, despite heavy fire from enemy aviation and artillery, the Ukrainian Defense Forces successfully repelled attacks by Russian forces in the areas of Avdiivka, Keramik, Pervomaiske, Nevelske, Pobeda, and Novomykhailivka in Donetsk Oblast. They continued to hold back the Russian advance in the area of Maryinka. 
• The enemy repelled attacks by the Defense Forces near Vodyane, Pervomaiske, and Krasnohorivka. The Russian units attempted to advance towards Lastochkyne but were unable to enter the town. Similarly, their efforts to attack near Severne and Krasnohorivka were unsuccessful.
• Zaporizhzhia direction: On the Novodanylivka – Shyroka Balka and Mala Tokmachka – Novopokrovka sectors, the Ukraine’s “Tavriysk” Operational Grouping achieved success, consolidating their positions and inflicting artillery strikes on identified enemy targets. They are actively engaging in counter-battery warfare. The enemy is putting up fierce resistance, maneuvering their forces, and actively deploying reserves.
  • Melitopol direction (Pyatykhatky): the “Tavriysk” Grouping conducted several unsuccessful assaults near Zherebyanky and Pyatykhatky.
  • Tokmak direction (Robotyne): Russian forces repelled two Ukrainian attacks near Robotyne and in the direction of Verbove. They conducted a counterattack northeast of Robotyne, displacing Ukrainian troops from one of the strongpoints of the 71st motorized rifle regiment of the 42nd motorized rifle division, which had been lost the previous day.
  • “Tavriysk” Grouping’s forces advanced 1 km north of Robotyne and conducted strikes with cluster munitions on the outskirts of Tokmak.
  • Berdyansk direction (Velyka Novosilka): Ukrainian Defense Forces unsuccessfully attacked in the direction of Petrivske but made progress to the north and south of Pryiutne. They launched a strike on the command post of the 58th Artillery Brigade with a Storm Shadow missile. 
  • Russian forces repelled a Ukrainian assault near Staromayorske and unsuccessfully counterattacked in the direction of Blahodatne. 
• In the Kherson direction, Russian forces ceased their assault near Antonivskyi Bridge due to the advantage of Ukrainian artillery in that area.
• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, there were 8 enemy ships on combat duty in the Black Sea, 1 in the Azov Sea, and up to 8 enemy ships in the Mediterranean. The total salvo of cruise missiles is up to 18 “Kalibr” missiles. The Russian Navy has deployed two large landing ships to serve as transport ferries in the Kerch Strait.

Change in enemy disposition: 

• The commander of the 58th Army, Major General I. Popov, has been removed from his position, and Major General D. Lyamin, the commander of the 22nd Army Corps of the Black Sea Fleet, is assuming command. 
• During the past week, the 70th, 291st motorized rifle regiments and 1430th motorized rifle regiment of the Territorial Forces suffered significant losses. As a result, they have been reinforced on the Staromayorske-Staromlyniv frontier by units of the 100th separate ranger brigade and the 3rd, 11th, and 14th BARS detachments. This enemy grouping is facing the 47th and 65th separate mechanized brigades of the Ukrainian Defense Forces and comprises approximately 4,500 personnel, 70 tanks, and 70 artillery pieces. The technical readiness coefficient of this force is estimated to be around 50%.

Possible operation situation developments: 

• The Ukrainian Defense Forces will continue the offensive in the directions of Stepove – Vasylivka, Orikhiv – Tokmak, and Velyka Novosilka – Berdyansk.
• As the Defense Forces advance towards the enemy’s main defensive line, the enemy command on the Zaporizhzhia direction will be forced to make a decision regarding the organization of defense either by consolidating the combat formations of the 49th and 58th Armies or by reallocating reserves from other operational zones.
• In the event of a successful breakthrough of the enemy’s main defensive line on the Zaporizhzhia direction, the enemy command in the Southwest Theater of Military Operations may deliver a major strike on the Kupyansk direction from the area of Mykolaivka – Nova Tarasivka – Yahidne – Orlianka towards Stepova Novoselivka – Petropavlivka, and another strike from the area of Horobyivka – Vilshana – Lyman Pershyi – Masyutivka towards Synkivka – Kucherivka or Petropavlivka.
• To halt the advance of the “Tavriysk” Operational Grouping on the Tokmak direction, the enemy command may redeploy the 165th and 291st artillery brigades from the Hulyaipole area and the 336th separate marines brigade of the Baltic Fleet from the Volodyne area to the Robotyne region.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 13.07.23 

Personnel – almost 236,040 people (+510);

Tanks – 4,092 (+2);

Armored combat vehicles – 7,999 (+9);

Artillery systems – 4,425 (+23);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 678 (+4);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 421 (+7);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 6,995 (+17);

Aircraft – 315 (0);

Helicopters – 310 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 3,752 (+26);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,271 (0);

Boats/ships – 18 (0).

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