CDS Daily Brief. 14.07.2023

Operational situation

General conclusion: 

• The Defense Forces continued offensive operations on at least three fronts and achieved success on some of them.
• The Defense Forces units achieved tactical advantages in the areas of Krasnopillya and Yakovlivka, where they encircled the enemy and advanced to a distance of 4.5 km to Soledar.
• The pace and scope of the offensive operation of the “Tavriya” Operational Grouping have slowed down, although success is still being achieved on all fronts.
• The enemy’s command continues active offensive actions simultaneously on three fronts, achieving success on two.
• The 7th motorized rifle regiment (the 18th motorized rifle division of the 11th Army Corps of the Baltic Fleet) and the 27th separate motorized rifle brigade achieved success in the direction of Chervonopopivka – Nevske and in the area of Novoselivske, bringing them close to crossing the Kupyansk-Svatove road. Their achievements will constrain the Defense Forces’ command on the Kupyansk direction, limiting their ability to respond to changes in the operational situation on the Lyman direction.
• The deployment of the 1430th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the Russian Territorial Forces on the Tokmak direction northeast of Robotyne resulted in the enemy losing 4 km² of territory in counter battles east of the village. This development further complicates the situation for the units of the enemy’s 291st Motorized Rifle Regiment.
• The tactical position of the 38th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 35th Army of the enemy deteriorated on the Luhovske – Bagate direction. The brigade’s defensive line is divided in half by the T0815 Orikhiv – Polohy road, and the active fire from the “Tavria” Operational Grouping on the northern bank of the Konka River is forcing the enemy to adjust their battle formation due to the gradual encirclement by the Defense Forces from the right flank

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

• There were over 30 combat clashes on various fronts.
• On the Lyman direction, the enemy conducted unsuccessful offensive operations east of Nevske in Luhansk Oblast and east of Terniv in Donetsk Oblast. 
• The frontline units of the enemy’s 74th separate motorized rifle brigade were reinforced with at least two tank companies. They continued their attacks towards Kreminna – Zarichne, aiming to displace the Defense Forces from the northeastern outskirts of Torske. The enemy has significantly expanded their penetration into Ukrainian defenses in this direction. Southwestern of Spirne village, the Russian 123rd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Army Corps made several unsuccessful attempts over the course of several days to attack the Defense Forces’ positions and break through to Ivan-Daryivka village.
• The enemy continues to launch constant attacks from the areas of Dibrova and Shypylivka, which further complicates the tactical situation of the Defense Forces in the Serebryansk Forest area. They are making efforts to advance towards Serebryanka – Bilohorivka – Dronivka.
• On the Bakhmut direction, under intense enemy aviation and artillery fire, the Defense Forces successfully repelled all enemy attacks in the Berkhivka area. 
• On the Krasnopillya – Yakovlivka sector, the 137th Parachute Airborne Regiment of the 106th Airborne Division and detachments of the PMC “Fakel” were unable to eliminate the penetration made by the Defense Forces units in the Yakovlivka village area, and the enemy’s defense was breached to the west of the village. Attempts to counterattack from the direction of Bilohorivka village were also repelled.
• South of Bakhmut, the enemy, having deployed reserves, launched an attack with the units of the 124th separate rifle motorized brigade of the 2nd Army Corps in the direction of Klishchiivka-Ivanivske, and with the forces of the 83rd separate airborne assault brigade in the direction of Klishchiivka -Hight 233.3. As a result of the battle, the enemy was forced to abandon Klishchiivka. The Ukrainian Defense Forces gained control over the railway section south of Bakhmut, reached its southern outskirts, and entered Kurdyumivka.
• The enemy, with the forces of reserves (217th and 331st parachute airborne regiments of the 98th airborne division), successfully counterattacked the Defense Forces units in the Dubovo-Vasylivka, Berkhivka, and Yahidne areas, completely halting the advance of the Defense Forces.
• On the Avdiivka direction, under intense enemy artillery fire, the Defense Forces successfully repelled the attacks of Russian forces in the area of Pervomaiske and continue to contain the Russian advance in the area of Maryinka.
• Zaporizhzhia direction: 
• Berdyansk direction (Velyka Novosilka): The 136th Separate Motorized Brigade of the Russian 58th Army retreated by 1.5 km in the direction of Rivnopil-Staromayorske. The enemy conducted unsuccessful offensive operations in the area of Novomykhailivka.
• In the Black Sea-Azov Sea operational area, there were 8 enemy ships on combat duty in the Black Sea and 1 in the Azov Sea. In the Mediterranean, there were up to 8 enemy ships. A total salvo of cruise missiles (Kalibr) is up to 18.

Change in enemy disposition: 

• The units of the 59th Separate C2 Brigade and the 179th Signal Brigade of the Central Military District have completed the installation of fiber optic communication lines between the command posts of the 74th Separate Motorized Brigade (located in Krasnorichenske village), the 35th Separate Motorized Brigade (in Kreminna), and the 55th Separate Motorized Brigade (presumably in Rubizhne). These communication lines connect to the communication node of the Command Post of the 41st Army.
• The enemy command, intensifying its efforts, has deployed units of the 423rd Motorized Rifle Regiment from the 4th Tank Division of the 1st Tank Army in the directions of Kolomyichikha – Stelmakhivka and Kryvoshiivka – Stelmakhivka. Additionally, the 1431st motorized rifle regiment of the Territorial Forces has been introduced into the operation in the direction of Kuzemivka – Berestove.
• On the Kupyansk direction, some batteries of the 9th artillery brigade and the 147th self-propelled artillery regiment have changed their fire positions.

Escalation indicators: 

• In the area of Bilohorivka village, the enemy is regrouping the 127th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 2nd Army Corps, preparing to resume attacks on the village from the northeast and southeast directions.

Possible operation situation developments: 

• The Defense Forces will continue the offensive in the directions of Stepove – Vasylivka, Orikhiv – Tokmak, Velyka Novosilka – Berdyansk.
• As the Defense Forces advance towards the enemy’s main defensive line, the enemy command on the Zaporizhzhia direction will be forced to make a decision regarding the organization of defense either by consolidating the combat formations of the 49th and 58th Armies or by reallocating reserves from other operational zones.
• In the event of a successful breakthrough of the enemy’s main defensive line on the Zaporizhzhia direction, the enemy command in the Southwest Operational Theater may launch a main strike on the Kupyansk direction from the Mykolaivka – Nova Tarasivka – Yahidne – Orlianka area towards Stepova Novoselivka – Petropavlivka, and another strike from the Horobyivka – Vilshana – Lyman Pershyi – Masyutivka area towards Synkivka – Kucherivka or Petropavlivka.
• To halt the advance of the “Tavria” Operational Grouping on the Tokmak direction, the enemy command may redeploy the 165th and 291st artillery brigades from the Hulyaipole area and the 336th separate marines brigade of the Baltic Fleet from the Volodyne area to the Robotyne region.
• The enemy command has deployed the 423rd Motorized Rifle Regiment and the 1431st Motorized Rifle Regiment of the Territorial Forces with the objective of establishing a defensive position along the Lozova – Stelmakhivka axis from the southern direction. This defensive line serves to cover the “Zapad” operational-tactical grouping, which is deployed to the north, and to occupy the area of Lozova – Pishchane – Berestove – Stelmakhivka.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 14.07.23 

Personnel – almost 236,590 people (+550);

Tanks – 4,097 (+5);

Armored combat vehicles – 8,008 (+9);

Artillery systems – 4,449 (+24);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 680 (+2);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 423 (+2);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 7,019 (+24);

Aircraft – 315 (0);

Helicopters – 310 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 3,783 (+31);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,273 (+2);

Boats/ships – 18 (0).

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