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CDS Daily Brief. 15.07.2023

Operational situation

Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to conduct an offensive operation in the Bakhmut, Melitopol and Berdyansk areas. The Russian military continues to focus its main efforts on the Kupyansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Maryinka directions; intense battles continue.

General conclusion:

  • Ukrainian Defense Forces continued offensive actions on at least three sections of the front and achieved success on some of them;
  • Units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces achieved tactical advantages in the area of Krasnopillya and Yakovlivka where they overtook the enemy and reached a distance of 4.5 km away from Soledar;
  • The pace and scale of the offensive operation of the “Tavriya” Operational Grouping have slowed down, although they contribute to success in all sections;
  • The command of the Russian troops continues active offensive actions simultaneously in three directions and is successful in two of them.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

  • Over 32 combat clashes took place on different directions.
  • On the Lyman direction, Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensives east of Nevske, Terny, west of Dibrova in Luhansk Oblast and east of Novosadove in Donetsk Oblast. They continued successful ground attacks near Torske, and had partially taken the village under control. Russian units of the 80th tank regiment (the 90th tank division of the Central Military District) stormed a forest massif near Kreminna. The 2nd battalion of the 74th separate motorized rifle brigade (the 41st Russian Army) attacked Ukrainian positions in the Serebryansk Forest area south of Kreminna. Russian forces repulsed Ukrainian attacks near Nevske and Bilohorivka.
  • On the Bakhmut direction, under heavy fire from the Russian aircraft and artillery, Ukrainian Defense Forces successfully repelled all Russian attacks in the area of Berkhivka in Donetsk Oblast. Ukrainian Defense Forces attacked and advanced in the Bakhmut area, achieved partial success in the direction of Bila Hora – Andriivka, attacked near Klishchiivka and Berkhivka.
  • Russian troops repelled Ukrainian attacks near Hryhorivka, Klishchiivka, in the area of the canal and dam near Kurdyumivka, near Yahidne.
  • On the Avdiivka direction, Russian forces carried out unsuccessful offensive actions in the area of Pervomaiske and Novokalynove. Ukrainian Defense Forces continue holding back the offensive of the Russian 150th motorized rifle division of the 8th Army in the Maryinka area, hold the previously liberated “Zvirynets” district southeast of Maryinka, and repel all Russian attacks.
  • Russian troops repelled Ukrainian attacks near Krasnohorivka and Severne.
  • Zaporizhzhya direction:
  • Tokmak direction (Robotyne): the troops of the “Tavriya” Operational Grouping advanced to the south and southeast for 1.7 km.
  • Berdyansk direction (Velyka Novosilka): Russian forces carried out unsuccessful offensive actions in the Novomykhailivka area of Donetsk Oblast. Troops of the “Tavriya” Grouping broke through the Russian defenses north of Pryiutne along the Hrusheva ravine. They are advancing in the direction of Pryiutne – Staromayorske and trying to break through near Urozhaine. They repulsed an enemy counterattack near Rivnopil.
  • On the Kherson direction, Russian troops continue to try to regain lost positions.
  • In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, there were 9 Russian ships on combat duty in the Black Sea including 2 carriers of sea launched cruise missiles. There was 1 ship in the Sea of Azov, and up to 8 Russian ships in the Mediterranean, the total salvo of sea launched cruise missiles is up to 12 Kalibr missiles.

Change in enemy disposition:

  • The 291st motorized rifle regiment of the 42nd motorized rifle division of the 58th Army is in a defensive posture in the Orikhiv area.
  • The Russian military concentrated up to 830 tanks, 1,500 armored combat vehicles, about 1,100, mortars, mine throwers, and MRLS in the Kupyansk and Lyman directions, and a grouping that has more than 100,000 servicemen.

Possible operation situation developments:

  • Ukrainian Defense Forces will develop an offensive in the direction of Stepove – Vasylivka, Orikhiv – Tokmak, Velyka Novosilka – Berdyansk;
  • Once Ukrainian Defense Forces reach the main Russian defensive line, the Russian command in the Zaporizhzhia direction will be forced to make a decision regarding the organization of defense either by consolidating the combat formations of the 49th and 58th Armies, or by reallocating reserves from other operational zones;
  • In the event of a successful breakthrough of the enemy’s main defensive line on the Zaporizhzhia direction, the Russian command in the Southwest Operational Theater may launch a main strike on the Kupyansk direction from the Mykolaivka – Nova Tarasivka – Yahidne – Orlianka area towards Stepova Novoselivka – Petropavlivka, and another strike from the Horobyivka – Vilshana – Lyman Pershyi – Masyutivka area towards Synkivka – Kucherivka or Petropavlivka.
  • In the course of 7-10 days, the command of the Russian “Center” troop grouping must decide on the direction of the main strike either Lyman – Borova or in the Kupyansk direction.
  • The introduction of the 423rd motorized rifle regiment and the 1431st motorized rifle regiment of the territorial troops into operation by the Russian command is meant to create a Lozova – Stelmakhivka cover line from the southern direction for the “Zapad” operational-tactical grouping deployed further north, and to occupy the Lozova – Pishchane – Berestov – Stelmakhivka area.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 15.07.23

Personnel – almost 236,590   people (+550);

Tanks 4,097 (+5);

Armored combat vehicles – 8,008 (+9);

Artillery systems – 4,449 (+24);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 680 (+2);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 423 (+2);

Vehicles and fuel tanks –7,019 (+24);

Aircraft – 315 (0);

Helicopters – 310 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 3,783 (+31);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,273 (+2);

Boats/ships – 18 (0).

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