CDS Daily Brief. 16.07.2023

Operational situation

Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to conduct an offensive operation in the Bakhmut, Melitopol and Berdyansk areas. The Russian military continues to focus its main efforts on the Kupyansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Maryinka directions; intense battles continue.

General conclusion:

• Ukrainian Defense Forces continued offensive actions on at least three sections of the front and achieved success on some of them;
• Russian forces are most active in the Kupyansk and Lyman directions;
• The situation in the Lyman direction remains highly challenging. The Russian command aims to defeat the Ukrainian Defense Forces grouping in this direction and regain control over the defense line along the Chornyi Zherebets River. They also seek to disrupt the defense of Ukrainian troops along the entire length of the Siversky Donets River, from Bilohorivka (upper) to Dronivka, effectively cutting off the northern face of the Siversky Ledge.
• The enemy’s “Center” troops grouping is most powerful Russian grouping in the entire South-Western military theater;
• The deployment of an artillery grouping comprised of a missile brigade, 2 artillery brigades and 5 artillery regiments in the Lyman direction indicates the preparation for an offensive operation;
• The Russian military command is forced to transfer reserves to the Bakhmut from the Lyman direction to stop the offensive of Ukrainian Defense Forces.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

• Over 39 combat clashes took place on different directions.
• On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive actions south of Novoselivske, Luhansk Oblast. The enemy is consolidated in a position along the railway near the village, trying to dislodge Ukrainian Defense Forces from the forest area south of the village. The 21st separate motorized rifle brigade (the 2nd Army of the Eastern Military District) repelled the attack of Ukrainian Defense Forces near Kuzemivka.
• On the Lyman direction, over the past day, Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive actions east of Novosadove, west of Dibrova, Luhansk Oblast, east of Vesele, Donetsk Oblast. Units of Ukrainian Defense Forces attacked the positions of the 228th motorized rifle regiment (the 90th motorized rifle division of the Central Military District) in the Kreminna area, but were unable to advance.
• In the south of Serebryansk Forest, the 6th Russian BARS detachment advanced several hundred meters, the 331st parachute airborne regiment of the 98th airborne division advanced near Torske in the direction of Yampolivka. The enemy repelled two attacks of Ukrainian Defense Forces near Makiyivka.
• On the Bakhmut direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces successfully repelled all Russian attacks in the area southwest of Andriivka in Donetsk Oblast and liberated the territory near the village. They crossed the Siversky Donets-Donbas canal in this area and made territorial gains near Kurdyumivka. The Ukrainian forces also continued their offensive against the positions of the Russian 83rd separate airborne assault brigade near Klishchiivka. Attempts to regain previously lost positions in the Berkhivka area were not successful, although the 57th separate mechanized brigade of Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled the counterattack by the enemy’s 200th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 14th Army Corps of the Northern Fleet. Ukrainian Defense Forces’ 54th Separate Mechanized Brigade defeated the 29th BARS detachment north of Bakhmut and assumed a defensive posture, preparing to repulse a counterattack by the “Fakel” and “Potok” PMCs detachments. A Russian counterattack involving the 51st and 217th parachute airborne regiments, as well as the 9th and 1428th motorized rifle regiments of the Territorial Troops, was repulsed with heavy losses on the Russian side. The efforts of the 43rd and 45th Separate Artillery Brigades of the Ukrainian Defense Forces are noteworthy, particularly their successful counter-battery actions against Russian artillery positions along the M3 highway.
• The Russian military command relocated a BARS detachment from the Kreminna area to Klishchiivka. They also deployed the 4th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 2nd Army Corps and the 364th SOF Brigade to the same area. Additionally, elements of the Russian 98th Airborne Division advanced to the south of the Berkhivka Reservoir. A counterattack by the 83rd separate airborne assault brigade, 374th separate special unit, and the 13th BARS detachment allowed the enemy to advance by 100 meters in the Berkhivka area. However, this did not significantly improve the Russian tactical position as their units suffered significant losses.
• On the Avdiivka direction, Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive actions in the areas of Pervomaiske and Novokalynove. Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to repel the offensive of the Russian 150th motorized rifle division in the areas of Maryinka and Novomykhailivka. In the vicinity of Vesele, the 1454th motorized rifle regiment of the Territorial Troops launched an attack on the positions of the 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade of the Ukrainian Defense Forces and was subsequently defeated.

–       Zaporizhzhya direction:

• Melitopol direction (Pyatykhatky): units of the 429th motorized rifle regiment (the 19th motorized rifle division of the 58th Russian Army) repulsed the attacks of the “Tavriya” Operational Grouping near Pyatykhatky and Zherebyanky.
• Tokmak direction (Robotyne): the “Tavriya” Grouping advanced to the northeast of Robotyne, struck a column of the 177th separate marines regiment of the Caspian Fleet northwest of Tokmak.
• Berdyansk direction (Velyka Novosilka): Russian forces carried out unsuccessful offensive actions in the area of Novomykhailivka. The Ukrainian Defense Forces consolidated their positions near Hrusheva Ravine south of Rivnopil. The Russian 37th separate motorized rifle brigade repulsed two attacks by the “Tavriya” Grouping near Urozhaine. Ukrainian troops attacked northwest of Staromayorske and near Pryiutne.
• In the Kherson direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces continued to hold positions near the Antoniv bridge, but Russian forces repulsed all their attempts to cross the Dnipro River.
• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, there were 9 Russian ships on combat duty in the Black Sea including 2 carriers of sea launched cruise missiles. There was 1 ship in the Sea of Azov, and up to 8 Russian ships in the Mediterranean, the total salvo of sea launched cruise missiles is up to 12 Kalibr missiles.

Change in enemy disposition:

• “Storm-Z” detachments of the 1st tank army of the Western Military District manned by former prisoners, arrived in Spiridonova Buda of the Russian Bryansk Oblast (20 km from the Ukrainian-Russian and 5 km from the Belarusian-Russian border) with the alleged task of securing the Russian border regions.
• The Russian grouping in the Lyman direction has the following composition: personnel – 59,122 infantrymen, up to 400 tanks, about 900 armored combat vehicles, 600 guns, mortars and MRLS, 12 operational tactical missile complex launch pads. The grouping’s reserve is up to 6 regiments, which sets it apart from others.
• The Russian military command has dismissed the commander of the 106th airborne division, Major General V. Seliverstov. The dismissal of the commander of the 58th Army, Major General I. Popov, indicates the formation of a new behavioral model that has developed in the Russian command in Ukraine. The commanders try to take advantage of their responsibility for key areas of the front in order to gain the support of senior authorities.

Escalation indicators:

• In Kharkiv and Luhansk Oblasts, on a front of about 120 km, two strike groupings of the Russian troops numbering a total of about 100,000 soldiers are concentrated.

Possible operation situation developments:

• Ukrainian Defense Forces will develop an offensive in the direction of Stepove – Vasylivka, Orikhiv – Tokmak, Velyka Novosilka – Berdyansk;
• In the event of a successful breakthrough of the enemy’s main defensive line on the Zaporizhzhia direction, the Russian command in the Southwest Operational Theater may launch a main strike on the Kupyansk direction from the Mykolaivka – Nova Tarasivka – Yahidne – Orlianka area towards Stepova Novoselivka – Petropavlivka, and another strike from the Horobyivka – Vilshana – Lyman Pershyi – Masyutivka area towards Synkivka – Kucherivka or Petropavlivka.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 16.07.23

Personnel – almost 237,680 people (+500);

Tanks – 4,107 (+5);

Armored combat vehicles – 8,026 (+7);

Artillery systems – 4,481 (+18);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) -681 (+1);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 425 (0);

Vehicles and fuel tanks –7,044 (+8);

Aircraft – 315 (0);

Helicopters – 310 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 3,820 (+13);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,273 (0);

Boats/ships – 18 (0).

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