CDS Daily Brief. 17.07.2023

Operational situation

General conclusion: 

• The enemy forces have increased the pace of their offensive actions along the Kupyansk-Svatove line to pressure the Defense Forces units in the area. Their objective is to force the military command of the Defense Forces to deploy their reserves to this sector of the front and divert them from ongoing offensive operations in other directions.
• With the arrival of reserve reinforcements, the Russian military command has almost completed the process of operational deployment of the striking operational-tactical groupings of the “Zapad” Operational-Tactical Group on the Kupyansk and Lyman directions.
• The objective of the Russian forces is to seize Maryinka and establish conditions for the encirclement of Avdiivka.
• The progress of Ukraine’s “Tavriya” Operational Grouping in the western part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast has slowed down.
• The Russian military command recognizes a threat of a breakthrough by the advanced units of the “Tavriya” Operational Grouping towards the Volodyne-Staromlynivka line. To counter this, they are maintaining a contingent of the 336th separate marines brigade of the Baltic Sea Fleet in the Volodyne area, which prevents its simultaneous deployment and joint operations with the 34th separate motorized rifle brigade for counterattacks both in the defense zone of the 34th separate motorized rifle brigade and the 143rd motorized rifle regiment of the 127th motorized rifle division.
• The enemy is compelled to deploy additional forces and resources to the operational area of the “Vostok” Operational Grouping (consisting of four combined-arms armies), indicating a persistent escalation of pressure from the “Tavriya” Operational Grouping.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

• There were over 28 combat clashes on various fronts. 
• On the Kupyansk direction, the enemy conducted unsuccessful offensive operations south of Novoselivske and further south of Masyutivka in Kharkiv Oblast, attacking Ukrainian positions near Synkivka and Dvorichna. 
• The Defense Forces’ attacks in the area of Karmazynivka were not successful.
• On the Lyman direction, the enemy conducted unsuccessful offensive operations east of Vesele in Donetsk Oblast. They achieved limited success west of Berestove and continued their attacks along the Torske – Makiyivka line near Torske, Yampolivka, Novosadove, Makiyivka, and in the forest area west of Kreminna and near Bilohorivka. 
• The enemy’s 74th separate motorized rifle brigade, with support from units of the 331st air assault regiment from the 76th air assault division, launched an assault towards Dibrova – Serebryanka. The 175th separate reconnaissance battalion from the 76th air assault division, assisted by the 8th detachment of BARS “Orenburg,” attacked the Defense Forces’ positions along the Siversky Donets River and in the area of Serebryanka village. Although the enemy’s attacks from the north yielded no results, they managed to make an approximate 1 km advance from the northeast.
• Russian forces repelled Ukrainian attacks near Novovodiane, Makiyivka, Serebryansk Forest, Bilohorivka, and Vesele. 
• On the Bakhmut direction, the Defense Forces successfully repelled all enemy attacks in the areas of Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Hryhorivka, Ivanivske, and southwest of Andriivka. The enemy attempted to regain the lost positions northwest of Kurdyumivka, and launched a counterattack near Berkhivka and Yahidne, but without success.
• The Defense Forces liberated Zaliznyanske, seized a fortified area west of Andriivka, and captured some of the heights near Klishchiivka. They intensified counteroffensive actions near Dubovo-Vasylivka, Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Berkhivka, Kurdyumivka, Klishchiivka, and Andriivka. 
• Following unsuccessful counterattack attempts in the Klishchiivka area by the 83rd separate airborne assault brigade, the enemy was compelled to engage in ongoing combat within the village, resulting in the loss of control over its western sector.
• In order to stabilize the situation in the defense zone of the 72nd and 57th separate motorized rifle brigades south of Bakhmut, the enemy’s military command is deploying additional units of the 68th tank regiment in the western vicinity of Odradivka and the 80th tank regiment in the northeast of Zelenopillia. In the second echelon, units of the 13th BARS “Russian Legion” detachment and the 374th separate SOF battalion have already been deployed. However, contrary to expectations, the Defense Forces’ units continue their southward advance south of Bakhmut along the T-0513 highway, simultaneously progressing in multiple directions.
• The enemy’s 57th separate motorized rifle brigade has retreated from the area west of Andriivka, approaching the village closely, and has engaged in combat directly near Kurdyumivka.
• On the Avdiivka direction, the enemy unsuccessfully attacked near Pervomaiske and Novomykhailivka. The Defense Forces continue to hold back the Russian forces’ advance in the Maryinka area. 
• The enemy is making attempts to break through on two fronts – Pisky-Pervomaiske (9th motorized rifle regiment, 87th motorized rifle regiment of the mobilization reserve, 10th separate tank battalion of the 1st Army Corps) and Vodyane-Opytne (1004th and 1439th motorized rifle regiments of the Territorial Forces, 1st separate motorized rifle brigade, 80th separate ranger battalion “Sparta,” 13th separate assault battalion “Somali”). Their objective is to regain the positions lost last week.
• Zaporizhzhia direction: 
• On the Melitopol direction (Pyatykhatky), units of the 429th motorized rifle regiment (the 19th motorized rifle division of the 58th Army) repelled attacks by the Ukrainian “Tavriya” Operational Grouping near Pyatykhatky and Zherebyanka. 
• On the Tokmak direction (Robotyne), the “Tavriya” Operational Grouping captured new positions in the area of Kamianske to the east of the E105 highway Zaporizhzhia – Vasylivka – Melitopol and advanced in the forest zone along the railway line to the west of Dorozhnianka. Their forward units are engaging in combat at a distance of 1 km from the enemy’s main defense line towards Verbove village. The “Tavriya” forces have outflanked the defense area of the 70th motorized rifle regiment from both flanks.
• To the northeast of Robotyne, their forward units have displaced the units of the 1430th motorized rifle regiment of the Russian Territorial Forces by a distance of 1.2 km and gained control over important heights. This development puts into question the stability of the defense of the enemy’s 1430th motorized rifle regiment, as well as the 1st, 3rd, and 14th detachments of BARS in this area. In the area south of Verbove, the enemy’s 100th separate ranger brigade is currently concentrating its forces to reinforce the defensive positions. The tactical situation of the enemy’s 291st motorized rifle regiment, defending in Robotyne, has further deteriorated as they are now faced with the challenge of repelling simultaneous attacks from three directions – the north (involving intense close-quarters combat within the village), northeast, and east.
• Berdyansk direction (Velyka Novosilka): In the northern part of Staromayorske, Donetsk Oblast, the enemy made unsuccessful attempts to regain lost positions. 

• On the Kherson direction, Russian forces were unable to displace the Defense Forces from their positions near Antonivskyi Bridge over the past week due to intense counter-battery fire. 
• In the Black Sea-Azov Sea operational area, there were 10 enemy ships on combat duty in the Black Sea, including 2 missile carriers; one – in the Azov Sea and 8 in the Mediterranean, including 1 missile carrier. The total salvo of cruise missiles is up to 28 Kalibr missiles.
• From July 20 to 22, the arrival of a railway echelon with ten sea-launched cruise missiles 3M14K/3M14T (“Kalibr”) is expected at Makenzievy Hory railway station in the temporarily occupied Crimea to replenish the ammunition of the Russian Navy’s Black Sea Fleet ships. 

Change in enemy disposition: 

• The 20th motorized rifle division of the 8th Army of the Southern Military District operates near Mariinka.
• Due to the inability to halt the advancement of the “Tavriya” Operational Grouping, the enemy command has taken measures to establish a covering echelon. This echelon comprises the 336th separate marines brigade of the Baltic Fleet, the 136th separate motorized rifle brigade, the 71st separate motorized rifle regiment, and the 5th separate tank brigade. It is worth noting that the 136th separate motorized rifle brigade and the 71st separate motorized rifle regiment were previously withdrawn to rear areas for reconstitution purposes.
• In the area between Pryiutne and Staromayorske, units of the 247th air assault regiment of the 7th air assault division of the Russian Airborne Forces have been observed.
• With the objective of displacing the Defense Forces units from the left bank of the Dnipro River near the Antonivskyi Bridge, the enemy’s command has concentrated additional units in the Oleshky area. This includes the 61st separate motorized rifle brigade of the Northern Fleet and the 336th separate motorized rifle brigade of the Baltic Sea Fleet, with personnel strength of 200 and 100, respectively. The consolidated battalion formed by these units is supported by the battalion tactical group of the 126th separate coastal defense brigade of the 22nd Army Corps, as well as an artillery group consisting of two howitzer batteries and one rocket artillery battery.
• On July 12, the enemy’s command completed the concentration of its reserve forces in the area of the 1st Tank Army and the 20th Army. These forces consisted of the 283rd motorized rifle regiment from the 144th motorized rifle division, the 245th motorized rifle regiment from the 3rd motorized rifle division of the 20th Army, and the 272nd motorized rifle regiment from the 47th tank division of the 1st Tank Army in the Western Military District. Prior to their concentration, these regiments had undergone combat training at the “Obuz-Lesnovsky,” “Osipovichsky,” and “Lepelsky” training grounds of the Armed Forces of Belarus.

Escalation indicators: 

• The enemy has increased the number of maritime carriers of cruise missiles by more than twice.
• On July 14, the enemy transferred at least 4 missiles of the 9M723 type for the Iskander-M missile system from the complex storage arsenal of missiles, ammunition, and explosives of the 1061st Center for Material and Technical Support (Tikhoretsk, Krasnodar Krai, Russia) to the concentration area of the 448th missile brigade of the 20th Army, located in the village of Mistky (southeast of Svatove). 

Possible operation situation developments: 

• The Defense Forces will continue their offensive operations in the directions of Stepove-Vasylivka, Orikhiv-Tokmak, Velyka Novosilka-Berdyansk, and simultaneously in the area of Bakhmut.
• With the Defense Forces reaching the enemy’s main defensive line and the deployment of a majority of their operational reserves, the enemy’s command is poised to launch an offensive operation using the “Zapad” Operational Grouping on the Kupyansk direction and the “Tsentr” Operational Grouping on the Lyman direction. The primary thrust on the Kupyansk direction will originate from the Mykolaivka-Nova Tarasivka-Yahidne-Orlianka area, advancing towards Stepova-Novoselivka-Petropavlivka. Simultaneously, another offensive will be conducted from the Horobyivka-Vilshana-Lyman Pershyi-Masyutivka area, targeting Synkivka-Kucherivka or Petropavlivka.
• In the near future, the enemy will be compelled to engage the 4th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 2nd Army Corps, the 11th separate airborne assault brigade, and the 1307th motorized rifle regiment of the Territorial Defense Forces in active operations.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 17.07.23 

Personnel – almost 238,300 people (+620);

Tanks – 4,115 (+8);

Armored combat vehicles – 8,034 (+8);

Artillery systems – 4,504 (+23);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 685 (+4);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 428 (+3);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 7,059 (+15);

Aircraft – 315 (0);

Helicopters – 310 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 3,828 (+8);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,273 (0);

Boats/ships – 18 (0).

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