CDS Daily Brief. 18.07.2023

Operational situation

General conclusion: 

• Russian formations in the northern theater of operations are more effectively equipped and supplied compared to those in the southern theater, which can be attributed to the lower vulnerability of railway communications.
• The pace of advancement by the Defense Forces has slowed down during the week, while concurrently inflicting significant losses on the Russian Armed Forces.
• Russian forces have initiated limited, localized offensive actions in the Lyman direction, employing the “Storm-Z” assault groups to divert the informational focus away from the active operations of the Defense Forces in the Zaporizhzhia and Bakhmut directions.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

• There were over 36 combat engagements on various fronts.
• On the Kupyansk direction, the enemy conducted unsuccessful offensive operations west of Lyman Pershyi in Kharkiv Oblast. They attacked Ukrainian positions near Masyutivka and Novoselivske in an attempt to push back the Defense Forces across the Oskil River. The enemy managed to advance 1-2 km. Units of the 21st separate motorized rifle brigade of the 2nd Army Corps and the assault detachments “Storm-Z” launched attacks on Ukrainian positions near Karmazynivka and captured two strongpoints northwest of Novovodyanе village.
• On the Lyman direction, the enemy conducted unsuccessful offensive operations in the area west of Dibrova and east of Vesele in Luhansk Oblast. They also made unsuccessful attempts to advance in the Serebryansk Forest area. The Defense Forces are holding back the enemy’s advance near Torske.
• On the Bakhmut direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces successfully repelled enemy attacks in the areas of Mynkivka, southeast of Orikhove-Vasylivka, Hryhorivka, southeast of Bohdanivka, Ivanivske, Kurdyumivka in Donetsk Oblast. They control the areas near Zaliznyanske, Berkhivsky Reservoir, the railway section north of Bakhmut, part of the Chasiv Yar-Khromove route, and most of the dominant heights around Klishchiivka. They are close to liberating Yakovlivka, which will allow for the disruption of Russian logistical routes to Soledar. The Defense Forces have also regained their positions in the area of Orikhove-Vasylivka near the E40 highway from Bakhmut to Slovyansk.
• With significant effort, the Ukrainian 57th separate mechanized infantry brigade is holding Berkhivka, which poses a threat to the communications of the Russian grouping in Bakhmut. A battalion of the 57th separate mechanized infantry brigade repelled a counterattack by four Russian regiments from the 98th and 106th Airborne Divisions, inflicting significant losses on the enemy. The removal of the 106th Airborne Division commander from his position may be attributed to these losses.
• Russian forces are deploying reserves to Bakhmut and launching counterattacks on the flanks to regain lost positions. The 200th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 14th Army Corps of the Northern Fleet, supported by units of the Russian Airborne Forces and BARS detachments, engaged in combat with Defense Forces units near Yahidne. Units of the 106th Airborne Division of the Russian Airborne Forces counterattacked to the west of Klishchiivka. The 72nd separate motorized rifle brigade of the 3rd Army Corps and the 57th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 5th Army prevented the Defense Forces from occupying the height near Klishchiivka.
• On the Avdiivka direction, the Defense Forces repelled all attacks in the area of Avdiivka in Donetsk Oblast and continued to hold back the Russian forces’ advance in the areas of Maryinka and near Krasnohorivka. The enemy unsuccessfully attacked near Novomykhailivka and Pervomaiske.
• Zaporizhzhia direction: 
• Melitopol direction (Pyatykhatky): Russian forces repelled an attack by the 128th separate mountain assault brigade near Pyatykhatky.
• Tokmak direction (Robotyne): The “Tavriya” Operational Grouping continued with unsuccessful attacks in the area of Orikhove and made futile attempts to advance towards Robotyne. Overall, the intensity of combat operations in this sector of the front has decreased. The “Tavriya” Grouping operates on this direction with small assault groups.
• Berdyansk direction (Velyka Novosilka): The “Tavriya” Operational Grouping has reached Staromayorske and seized Russian positions in its vicinity; intense combat is ongoing. However, Russian forces currently control the town itself. 
• The “Tavriya” Operational Grouping has achieved success to the south of Velyka Novosilka in the areas of Makarivka and Novodarivka. 
• The enemy managed to regain the lost positions near Pryiutne. 
• In the Black Sea-Azov Sea operational area, there were 8 enemy ships on combat duty in the Black Sea, including 2 cruise missile carriers; 1 was in the Azov Sea, and 8 in the Mediterranean Sea, with a total of up to 22 Kalibr cruise missiles.

Change in enemy disposition:  

• No changes have been observed

Possible operation situation developments: 

• The Defense Forces will continue their offensive operations in the directions of Stepove-Vasylivka, Orikhiv-Tokmak, Velyka Novosilka-Berdyansk, and simultaneously in the area of Bakhmut.
• As the Defense Forces reach the enemy’s main defense line and engage a significant portion of their operational reserves, the enemy command will initiate offensive operations. The “Zapad” Operational Grouping will launch an offensive on the Kupyansk direction, delivering the main strike from the area of Mykolaivka-Nova Tarasivka-Yahidne-Orlianka towards Stepova-Novoselivka-Petropavlivka. Another strike will be launched from the area of Horobyivka-Vilshana-Lyman Pershyi-Masyutivka towards Synkivka-Kucherivka or Petropavlivka.
• In the near future, the enemy will be compelled to engage the 4th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 2nd Army Corps, the 11th separate airborne assault brigade, and the 1307th motorized rifle regiment of the Territorial Defense Forces in active operations.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 18.07.23 

Personnel – almost 239,010 people (+710);

Tanks – 4,119 (+4);

Armored combat vehicles – 8,051 (+17);

Artillery systems – 4,542 (+38);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 689 (+4);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 428 (0);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 7,086 (+27);

Aircraft – 315 (0);

Helicopters – 310 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 3,839 (+11);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,273 (0);

Boats/ships – 18 (0).

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