CDS Daily Brief. 19.07.2023

Operational situation

Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to conduct an offensive operation in the Bakhmut, Melitopol and Berdyansk areas. The Russian military focuses its main efforts on the Kupyansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Maryinka directions.

General conclusion:

• The Ukrainian Defense Forces have achieved success on Velyka Novosilka – Staromayorske and Novosilka – Staromayorske directions and are consolidating their positions along the attained frontlines.
• The Ukrainian Defense Forces conducted counteroffensive actions on at least three sections of the front line and achieved tactical success along the border of Kharkiv and Luhansk Oblasts;
• The attack on the Kerch Bridge on July 17 will have immediate implications for the logistical support of Russian troops in southern Ukraine.
• The enemy continues offensive actions along the Kupyansk-Svatove line, to the southwest of Kreminna, and in the areas of Bakhmut and Avdiivka, achieving local tactical successes.
• The lack of rotations and the inadequate counter-battery efforts of the Russian 58th Army in their defensive operation against the “Tavriya” Operational Grouping’s advance have a considerable impact on the enemy’s forces.
• On the Kupyansk direction, the Russian forces are increasing the scale and pace of their offensive, aiming to create favorable conditions for the further development of their success in this sector.
• The enemy’s grouping deployed in the area of Myluvatka aims to reinforce the 423rd motorized rifle regiment, 15th and 30th separate motorized rifle brigades in case they achieve any significant success on the Kupyansk direction.
• Simultaneously with the enemy’s intensification northwest of Svatove, units of the Russian 6th Army also became more active north of Kupyansk. Specifically, the left-flank units of the enemy’s 138th separate motorized rifle brigade attacked the Defense Forces’ positions west of Synkivka along the Oskil River
• The Ukrainian Defense Forces maintain control of the road between Torske and Yampolivka, effectively hindering the Russian 74th separate motorized rifle brigade’s attacks towards Zarichne.
• Russian forces clearly lack combat readiness to change the tactical situation on the Lyman direction, where the terrain hampers the effective utilization of their numerical and armored superiority.
• In the areas of Pryiutne and Novodonetske, which are flanks in the Berdyansk direction, the situation has become significantly more complicated for the Russian military. The advancement of the “Tavriya” Operational Grouping in this area will disrupt the entire Russian defense system on this front.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

• Over 20 combat clashes took place on different directions.
• On the Kupyansk direction, within the defensive zone of the 7th motorized rifle regiment (18th motorized rifle division, 11th army corps of the Baltic Fleet), and the 27th separate mechanized brigade, Russian forces engaged units of the 1431st  motorized rifle regiment of the Territorial Troops and the 5th BARS detachment to increase their efforts. This allowed them to bypass Novoselivske from the north and from the south. Russian forces continue their attacks towards Berestove and south of Novoselivske in the direction of Stelmakhivka, and they have improved their tactical position in the areas of Synkivka and Kuzemivka. The 6th Army of the Western Military District advanced 3 km west of Lyman Pershyi towards Kupyansk. Units of the 423rd motorized rifle regiment (the 4th tank division of the 1st Tank Army), supported by the units  of the 15th and 30th separate mechanized brigade (the 2nd Army of the Central Military District) attacked the positions of Ukrainian Defense Forces in the direction of Karmazynivka – Druzhelyubivka, attempting to push them back beyond the Ostrovsky lakes.
• The Ukrainian Defense Forces are deploying reserves to this direction for a counterattack. Their units are currently holding only the western part of Novoselivske.
• On the Lyman direction, Russian forces advanced insignificantly to the northwest of Dibrova, tried to advance through the forests to the west of Kreminna.
• Despite a series of attacks by the 74th separate motorized rifle brigade towards Torske, supported by armored vehicles of the 59th tank regiment of the 144th motorized rifle division, units of the 331st air assault regiment of the 76th air assault division, and “Storm-Z” detachments, the Russian forces have failed to make any significant advances towards Torske. Furthermore, the introduction of units from the 1452nd motorized rifle regiment of the territorial troops did not produce any favorable outcomes.
• Despite conducting week-long coordinated attacks from three directions simultaneously, units of the 127th separate motorized rifle brigade, backed by the 79th separate reconnaissance battalion of the 2nd Army Corps and the 78th Russian special purpose motorized regiment “Akhmat-Sever,” were unsuccessful in displacing the Defense Forces units from Bilohorivka.
• In the area of Hryhorivka, within the Serebryansk Forestry, the Defense Forces successfully repelled the Russian forces with a well-executed counterattack, pushing them back by 2 km in the northeast direction. This action effectively removed the threat of the enemy’s breakthrough towards Hryhorivka.
• On the Bakhmut direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces continue their offensive actions north and south of Bakhmut. The Russian occupiers have been forced to retreat from positions northeast of Orikhovo-Vasylivka. The Defense Forces units have achieved partial success and are consolidating their positions along the attained frontlines. The enemy is putting up strong resistance, actively employing reserves, and suffering significant losses. Intense and fierce battles are ongoing.
• The Ukrainian Defense Forces successfully repelled Russian attacks in the Bohdanivka area of Donetsk Oblast, advanced west of Yahidne, and occupied almost all dominant heights around Bakhmut. However, their attempts to break through Russian defenses in the direction of Klishchiivka were not successful.
• Russian units made some progress near Ozaryanivka, but their counterattacks near Bohdanivka, Mynkivka, Ivanivka, and southwest of Orikhovo-Vasylivka were repulsed by the Ukrainian Defense Forces. The Russian command is transferring reserves to the Bakhmut direction from other areas.
• In the Avdiivka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold back the advance of Russian troops in the areas of Maryinka and Krasnohorivka.
• The Russian armored group breached the Ukrainian defense in the area of the “Trudivska” mine, captured the mine’s vicinity, and advanced 1 km towards Krasnohorivka.
• Zaporizhzhia direction:
  • Tokmak direction (Robotyne): the “Tavriya” Operational Grouping successfully attacked in the direction of Mala Tokmachka – Novopokrovka, holding positions near Orikhiv, previously recaptured from the Russian 71st motorized rifle regiment of the 42nd motorized rifle division.
  • Russian forces repelled “Tavriya” Operational Grouping’s attacks to the north of Robotyne, near Novodanylivka, Mali Shcherbaky, and Stepove, and achieved limited success to the northeast of Robotyne.
  • Berdyansk direction (Velyka Novosilka): Russian forces made unsuccessful attempts to regain the lost position in the areas of Rivnopil in Donetsk Oblast and Novodarivka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
  • The Tavria” Operational Grouping conducted successful operations in the direction of Velyka Novosilka – Urozhaine, achieving advancements in the Staromayorske area, launching attacks north of Pryiutne, engaging in battles within Staromayorske itself, and steadily pushing Russian forces out of Urozhaine.
  • The Russian 60th separate motorized rifle brigade, defending in this sector, is operating at the limit of its capabilities due to exhaustion and losses sustained in unsuccessful counterattacks northwest of Staromayorske last week.
  • Russian forces repelled Ukrainian attacks near Volodymyrivka and Urozhaine. Enemy units of the 247th air assault regiment of the 7th air assault division continuously counterattacked from the Pryiutne-Staromayorske line over the last two days, managed to halt the advancement of the forward units of the “Tavriya” Operational Grouping towards Staromlynivka from the northwest direction.
• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, there were 8 Russian ships on combat duty in the Black Sea, 1 in the Sea of Azov, 8 in the Mediterranean, 1 of them carriers of sea launched cruise missiles the total salvo is up to 16 Caliber missiles.

Change in enemy disposition:

• In the area of Myluvatka, the Russian command has concentrated a tactical group consisting of the 752nd motorized rifle regiment of the 3rd motorized rifle division, the 24th separate SOF brigade the 9th BARS detachment and two “Storm-Z” consolidated detachments.

Possible operation situation developments:

• The Ukrainian Defense Forces will continue their offensive operations in the directions of Stepove-Vasylivka, Orikhiv-Tokmak, Velyka Novosilka-Berdyansk, and simultaneously in the area of Bakhmut.
• With the Ukrainian Defense Forces advancing to the main defensive line of the enemy and engaging a significant portion of their operational reserves, the enemy’s command will initiate an offensive operation with the forces of the “Zapad” Operational Grouping on the Kupyansk direction and the “Tsentr” Operational Grouping on the Lyman direction. The main strike on the Kupyansk direction will be launched from the area of Mykolaivka – Nova Tarasivka – Yahidne – Orlianka towards Stepove-Novoselivka-Petropavlivka. Simultaneously, another attack will be carried out from the area of Horobyivka – Vilshana – Lyman Pershyi – Masyutivka towards Synkivka – Kucherivka or towards Petropavlivka.
• The enemy, operating in the general direction of Borova and Kruglyakivka, will attempt to break through the Ukrainian Defense Forces’ formation on the left bank of the Oskil River and establish a covering position from the south for the striking group of the 1st Tank Army, deployed in the Svatove – Kupyansk direction.
• During the upcoming week, the enemy will continue their attacks along the Siversky Donets River through Serebryansk Forest, along the Kreminna-Lyman road in the direction of Zarichne. They will also attempt to dislodge the Defense Forces units from Bilohorivka.
• On the Berdyansk direction, Russian forces will have to retreat to the Remivka – Volodyne – Staromlynivka – Kermenchyk line before the end of July;
• In order to prevent the collapse of their defenses in the Berdyansk direction, the enemy will make efforts to hold Staromlynivka and Kermenchyk.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 19.07.23

Personnel – almost 239,480  people (+470);

Tanks – 4,123 (+4);

Armored combat vehicles – 8,059 (+8);

Artillery systems – 4,573 (+31));

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 689 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems -430 (+2);

Vehicles and fuel tanks –7,105 (+19);

Aircraft – 315 (0);

Helicopters – 310 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 3,885 (+46);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,279 (+6);

Boats/ships – 18 (0).

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