Центр оборонних стратегій

Operational situation

Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to conduct an offensive operation on the Bakhmut, Melitopol and Berdyansk directions.

The Russian military focuses its main efforts on the Kupyansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Maryinka directions.

General conclusion:

  • Ukrainian Defense Forces continued counteroffensive actions in at least three sections of the front and have made advances. They have achieved success near Bakhmut, and are developing success in Zaporizhzhya Oblast;
  • Russian troops continued their offensive on the Svatove-Kreminna line, where they achieved significant tactical success, attacked in the Bakhmut and Avdiivka-Donetsk areas, but were unable to advance;
  • The Russian “Center” operational grouping began active offensive actions in the Lyman direction;
  • The Russian military command assesses the Ukrainian energy infrastructure in order to identify critical infrastructure objects for subsequent strikes;
  • Russian strikes on Odesa and Odesa Oblast are aimed at blocking Ukraine’s access to the Black Sea and intimidating international partners who work on restoring the Black Sea Grain Initiative;
  • Air defense of Ukrainian Defense Forces in the seaside direction is much weaker compared to the air defense grouping around Kyiv;
  • Russian propaganda deliberately attempts to portray minor Russian successes in the Luhansk and Kharkiv regions as significant tactical achievements in order to overshadow the advances made by the Defense Forces in Southern Ukraine. Additionally, they exaggerate the offensive actions of the Defense Forces in the Luhansk region for the same purpose.
  • The Russian military command is transferring troops that have lost combat capability from various areas of the front to Kherson Oblast for recovery. For this purpose it recently created a training ground on the island of Dzharylgach;
  • The Russian occupation authorities redirect civilian transportation along routes used by Russian military to transport their cargo in order to avoid being targeted by Ukrainian fire, using the civilian population as cover.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

  • Over 27  combat clashes took place on different directions.
  • On the Kupyansk direction, to capture Masyutivka (area – 25 hectares, population – several people), the enemy needed about 20 airstrikes and a prolonged artillery barrage, but their advancement further south was completely disrupted.
  • In the Lyman direction, units of the Russian 15th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 2nd Army and 74th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 41st Army continued offensive actions on the Svatove – Kreminna line and achieved significant tactical successes southwest of Svatove. Units of the 21st separate motorized rifle brigade of the 2nd Army of the Central Military District crossed the Zherebets River west of Karmazynivka and advanced to a depth of 4 km on the right bank of the river in the direction of Novoyehorivka. Russian forces repulsed 6 Ukrainian attacks near Novovodyanе and Karmazynivka, 4 attacks in the Kreminna area and near Bilohorivka, Donetsk Oblast. In the area of Dibrova, the 63rd separate mechanized brigade pushed back the Russian airborne units to their original positions.
  • Russian attacks near Nadia, Torske, Nevske, Makiyivka in Luhansk Oblast, and Hryhorivka in Donetsk Oblast were unsuccessful. In the Novoyehorivka area, the Russian 15th separate motorized rifle brigade lost up to two battalions under the fire of the 40th separate artillery brigade of the Ukrainian Defense Forces.
  • In the Bakhmut direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces continued their offensive operations in the area of Bakhmut. They advanced to the northwest of Khromove and pushed the Russian forces to the urban boundary of the village. The Defense Forces also made progress near Kurdyumivka and successfully repelled Russian attacks near Bohdanivka, Ivanivske, and Klishchiivka, launching a counterattack near Hryhorivka. Units of the 30th separate mechanized brigade, 56th separate mechanized infantry brigade, and 127th brigade of the Territorial Troops forced the enemy to retreat from Orikhovo-Vasylivka. Additionally, units from the 92nd separate motorized brigade and the 77th separate airborne assault brigade attacked the northern outskirts of Bakhmut, driving the enemy back to the Alley of Roses.
  • Russian forces repelled Ukrainian attacks near Klishchiivka and Mayorske, and conducted offensive actions near Kurdyumivka. The Ukrainian 3rd and 5th separate motorized rifle brigades, the 22nd separate mechanized brigade, and the 80th separate airborne assault brigade are employing infantry raid tactics, grinding down enemy forces in battles on the positions of the Russian 72nd separate motorized rifle brigade of the 3rd Army Corps, which the enemy is attempting to hold.
  • In the Avdiivka direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces continued local attacks along the Avdiivka-Donetsk line, but did not advance. They repulsed Russian assaults near Avdiivka, Nevelske, Krasnohorivka, Maryinka, and Novomykhailivka. Ukrainian Defense forces completely restored the defense line east of Kamianka.
  • Russian forces repulsed attacks near Vodyane and Severne, unsuccessfully stormed the positions of Ukrainian Defense Forces near Pervomaiske, and improved their tactical position north of Novomykhailivka.
  • Zaporizhzhia direction:
    • Tokmak direction (Robotyne): the “Tavriya” Operational Grouping advanced slightly 2 km deep into the Russian defensive positions south of Kamianske,
    • The enemy repelled 2 attacks by the “Tavriya” Operational Grouping near Robotyne. The 165th artillery brigade of the 35th Army practically lost all of its combat units after being targeted by artillery strikes from the “Tavriya” Grouping and precision-guided JDAM bombs from the Ukrainian Air Force aircraft.
    • Berdyansk direction (Velyka Novosilka): The forces of the “Tavriya” Operational Grouping have entered Staromayorske and secured the center of the village. They control dominant heights to the west of Staromayorske, advanced to the north of the village, and on the northern outskirts of Pryiutne. Ukrainian forces have consolidated their positions on the southwestern outskirts of Urozhaine and repelled enemy attempts to retake the lost positions near Pryiutne and to the south of Novodarivka. The assault groups of the “Tavriya” Operational Grouping are conducting short raids deep into the enemy’s defense towards Remivka.
    • Russian forces carried out unsuccessful offensive actions in the area of Novomykhailivka but repelled the attacks of small assault groups of the “Tavria” grouping near Staromayorske and Urozhaine and conducted an unsuccessful counterattack on Blahodatne from the south. The 336th separate marines brigade of the Baltic Fleet is concentrated in Volodyne.
  • In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, there were 8 Russian ships on combat duty in the Black Sea, 1 in the Sea of Azov, 8 in the Mediterranean.

Change in enemy disposition:

  • To reinforce the 60th separate motorized rifle brigade, which suffered losses in the battles for Staromayorske, the Russian command concentrated in this area the 247th air assault regiment of the 7th air assault division and the 136th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 58th Army.
  • In Pryiutne, the 394th motorized rifle regiment of the 127th motorized rifle division of the 5th Army finally lost its combat capability. The 71st motorized rifle regiment of the 42nd motorized rifle  division of the 58th Army, reinforced by airborne units, was deployed at its positions.

Possible operation situation developments:

  • In the Kupyansk direction, the 138th and 25th Russian separate motorized rifle brigades will try to improve their tactical position;
  • The command of the Russian troops will try to organize the main defense node in the area of the village Andriivka for the entire area south of Bakhmut and to conduct a number of counterattacks from there with the forces of the 57th separate motorized rifle brigade and the 68th tank regiment of the 150th motorized rifle division;
  • In the Berdyansk direction, Russian forces will have to retreat to the Remivka – Volodyne – Staromlynivka – Kermenchyk line before the end of July;
  • In the direction of Robotyne, the main line of defense is covered only by the 1st, 3rd and 14th BARS detachments, which due to their potential and morale-psychological state are not able to complete the task, so they should be expected to be reinforced by units of the 22nd and 45th separate SOF brigades.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 24.07.23

Personnel – almost 242,620 people (+660);

Tanks – 4,162 (+11);

Armored combat vehicles – 8,118 (+13);

Artillery systems – 4,675 (+17);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 697 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 452 (+1);

Vehicles and fuel tanks –7,182 (+10);

Aircraft – 315 (0);

Helicopters – 310 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 3,963 (+5);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,307 (+9);

Boats/ships – 18 (0).


  • On the night of July 23, the Russian Federation launched an almost four-hour long Shahed-136 attack at the Danube port infrastructure in Odesa Oblast. The “South” command reported that 3 drones were downed by Ukrainian air defenses. A grain hangar was destroyed, tanks for storing other types of cargo were damaged, and a fire broke out in one of the production premises. Six people were injured, four of them needed hospitalization.
  • Over the past day, the Russian military attacked 9 Ukrainian Oblasts. 9 people are reported injured.
  • In Ukraine, since the beginning of the full-scale war, a total of 15,233 children are being searched for, and 998 children are missing, the press service of the National Police informed.
  • According to the estimates of the Ministry of Social Policy, the number of IDPs has not changed much over the last several months. There are about 4.7 million IDPs. Among them about 60% are women, and 40% are men.
  • Since the beginning of the full-scale Russian invasion, investigators of the National Police have initiated 87,308 criminal proceedings based on the facts of crimes committed on the territory of Ukraine by servicemen of the Russian Armed Forces and their accomplices.

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