Центр оборонних стратегій

Russia’s war on Ukraine. 25.07.2023

Operational situation

The Defense Forces continue their offensive operations on the Bakhmut, Melitopol, and Berdyansk directions. The enemy concentrates its main efforts on the Kupyansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Maryinka directions.

General conclusion: 

  • The Defense Forces continued their offensive actions on at least three sectors of the front line and made advancements, achieving successes near Bakhmut and developing progress in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
  • The Russian forces continued their offensive actions on the Svatove – Kreminna frontier, achieving significant tactical successes. They also attacked in the areas of Bakhmut and Avdiivka – Donetsk, but were unable to make further advances.
  • On the Kupyansk and Lyman directions, the Russian military command on the Southwestern operational theater synchronizes the actions of the “Zapad” and “Tsentr” operational groupings on their adjacent flanks.
  • The commencement of enemy offensive operations in the northern part of Luhansk Oblast is linked to the situation in the south of Ukraine. However, the underlying motive for initiating the offensive remains uncertain:
    • a) The enemy’s command is seeking to address its shortage of reserves in the south by diverting reserves of the Ukrainian Defense Forces. 
    • b) The enemy’s command perceives the Defense Forces’ offensive in the south as unsuccessful and seizes strategic initiative on its own.
  • The enemy’s command views the Berdyansk direction as the most critical threat on the southern front and has positioned covering echelons in response, employing a portion of its operational reserves.
  • On the Vasylivka direction, the situation for the enemy is gradually deteriorating in the areas of Kamianske – Lobkove and near Nesteryanka. The presence of military units from the Crimean defense group on this front indicates a critical depletion of the enemy’s reserves on the Zaporizhzhia direction.
  • The 35th Russian army is compelled to engage in defensive operations on two out of the three active sectors of the front in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
  • The enemy’s operational reserves are unevenly distributed concerning the directions of the “Tavriya” operational grouping of the Ukrainian Defense Forces.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

  • There were over 35 combat clashes on different fronts. 
  • On the Kupyansk direction, the enemy launched an offensive towards Synkivka – Petropavlivka, attacking the Defense Forces’ positions in the direction of Synkivka with units from the 138th and 25th separate motorized rifle brigades. Their objective is to hinder the deployment of Defense Forces’ reserves in the Nyzhnia Duvanka area and disrupt the logistical route of the Defense Forces on the Kupyansk-Svatove highway.
  • The units of the 1st Tank Army, concentrated in the areas of Pershotravneve – Arapivka – Verkhnya Duvanka – Orlyanske, are not currently involved in the offensives.
  • On the Lyman direction, the enemy launched attacks north of the Svatove-Borova road towards Dzherelne-Vyshneve and Raigorodka-Nadiya, deploying forces from the 12th and 13th tank regiments of the 4th Tank Division. South of the primary efforts of the 4th Tank Division, the enemy is attacking with units from its 423rd motorized rifle regiment and the 15th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 2nd Army. They have achieved success in the Novoyehorivka area and are preparing to introduce the 30th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 2nd Army, the 752nd motorized rifle regiment of the 3rd motorized rifle division, detachment of the 24th separate SOF brigade, and the 9th “BARS” detachment to expand their penetration area towards Novovodyanе – Ostrovski Stavky.
  • On the Bakhmut direction, the Defense Forces successfully repelled enemy attacks northwest of Orikhovo-Vasylivka, south of Ivanivske, and west of Klishchiivka. They made a breakthrough in the enemy’s defense in the Yakovlivka area. They expanded the penetration area towards Rozdolivka – Soledar, forcing the enemy’s command to deploy the 137th parachute airborne regiment, which took up defensive positions on a pre-established line between Krasnopillya and Yakovlivka, providing cover for Soledar.
  • To contain the breakthrough in the Yakovlivka area, the 29th “Bars” detachment, the “Veterans” detachment, and the detachments of the PMC “Potok” and “Fakel” were engaged.
  • The enemy forces have withdrawn from their positions in the Kurdyumivka area and on the Andriivka direction; the ongoing battles persist in Klishchiivka.
  • In the defense sectors of the enemy’s 57th, 72nd, and 4th separate motorized rifle brigades, they are concentrating additional reserves to maintain control over the T-05-13 road south of Bakhmut.
  • On the Avdiivka direction, the Defense Forces effectively repelled Russian forces’ attacks in the Pervomaiske area and continued to hinder the enemy’s advancement in the Krasnohorivka and Maryinka areas in Donetsk Oblast.
  • In the Opytne area, the enemy is concentrating units from the 102nd motorized rifle regiment of the 150th motorized rifle division in case the situation worsens south of Bakhmut.
  • Zaporizhzhia direction: 
  • Vasylivka direction (Pyatykhatky):  The 128th separate mountain assault brigade of the Ukrainian Defense Forces is making a gradual advance towards Pyatykhatky – Zherebyanky, progressively increasing pressure on its flanks.
  • The enemy’s attempts to dislodge the forward units of the 128th separate mountain assault brigade from the Pyatykhatky area by attacking from the south and southwest with the forces of the 429th motorized rifle regiment and the 4th military base were unsuccessful. The deployment of the “Storm-Osetia” detachment also did not yield results.
  • East of Kamianske, the unit of the 128th separate mountain assault brigade made a sudden advance to the south and created conditions for surrounding the enemy, which was attempting to hold the southwestern part of the village, covering the road to Vasylivka. The enemy’s command immediately deployed the “BARS Krym” and “P. Sudoplatov” detachments to stabilize the situation.
  • East of Kamianske, the 128th separate mountain assault brigade executed a swift and decisive southward advancement, creating an encirclement situation for the enemy, who was trying to maintain control over the southwestern part of the village, which covers the road to Vasylivka. The enemy’s command promptly deployed the “BARS Krym” and “P. Sudoplatov” detachments to stabilize the situation.
  • Tokmak direction (Robotyne): The enemy’s counterattack, led by the 70th motorized rifle regiment, towards Verbove – Novodanylivka was unsuccessful, despite advancing about 1.5 km in the northwest direction. The 291st motorized rifle regiment of the 42nd motorized rifle division is gradually losing combat capability, and it won’t be able to hold Robotyne without reinforcements. A similar situation is unfolding east of the village for the 1430th motorized rifle regiment of the Territorial Troops.
  • “Tavriya” operational Grouping of the Ukrainian Defense Forces have gained control of the heights northeast of Robotyne.
  • Berdyansk direction (Velyka Novosilka): The enemy’s offensive actions in the Rivnopol area were unsuccessful. All of their previous counterattacks, involving units from the second echelon brigades – the 136th separate motorized rifle brigade and the 336th separate marines brigade of the Baltic Fleet – towards the villages of Rivnopil and Novodarivka, ended in failure. The enemy couldn’t improve their tactical situation in the Pryiutne and Staromayorske areas. The enemy’s 60th separate motorized rifle brigade is attempting to hold Staromayorske and Urozhaine amidst intense close-quarters combat. Meanwhile, the 37th separate motorized rifle brigade is gradually losing Novodonetske, as forces of the “Tavriya” operational grouping are bypassing the area from the south, thereby creating conditions for encirclement.
  • In the Black Sea-Azov Sea operational area, the enemy has 8 ships on combat duty in the Black Sea, 1 in the Azov Sea, and 8 in the Mediterranean Sea. There are 3 cruise missile carriers among them, amounting to a total salvo capability of up to 28 “Kalibr” cruise missiles.

Change in enemy disposition:  

  • On the Kupyansk direction, the enemy has deployed an artillery group comprising 4 brigades – the 9th, 45th, 244th, and 288th. Additionally, in the same area, there are the 147th self-propelled artillery regiment of the 2nd motorized rifle division, the 79th MLRS brigade of the Western Military District, and the 488th missile brigade of the 20th Army.

Escalation indicators: 

  • The port of Reni (90 m from the border with Romania, a NATO member country) was attacked by the strike UAV “Shahed.” 
  • The training of three new brigades of the Ukrainian Defense Forces has been completed in the United Kingdom.

Possible operation situation developments: 

  • On the Kupyansk direction, the enemy’s 138th and 25th separate motorized rifle brigades will try to improve their tactical position.
  • The enemy’s command will try to establish the primary defense node in the area of Andriivka and carry out a series of counterattacks from there using the 57th separate motorized rifle brigade and the 68th tank regiment of the 150th motorized rifle division.
  • On the Berdyansk direction, the enemy will have to retreat to the line of Remivka – Volodyne – Staromlynivka – Kermenchyk by the end of July. The reserves positioned in this sector, including the 5th separate tank brigade, the 131st motorized rifle regiment, and several separate battalions, will be employed to maintain control of Kermenchyk village and the dominant heights around it. The deployment of these reserves for the defense of Novodonetsk will hinder the enemy’s efforts in that area.
  • On the Robotyne direction, where the situation is progressively deteriorating for the enemy, their military command is confronted with a decision – either to maintain their primary line of defense or to deploy the available 1st, 3rd, and 14th “BARS” detachments, along with the SOF detachments of the 22nd and 45th separate SOF brigades, to reinforce the 291st motorized rifle regiment of the 42nd motorized rifle division in order to hold Robotyne.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 25.07.23 

Personnel – almost 243,220 people (+600);

Tanks – 4,174 (+12);

Armored combat vehicles – 8,131 (+13);

Artillery systems – 4,705 (+30);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 698 (+1);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 454 (+2);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 7,194 (+12);

Aircraft – 315 (0);

Helicopters – 310 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 3,977 (+14);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,307 (0);

Boats/ships – 18 (0).

Humanitarian, general news

  • Over the past day, the Russian army conducted attacks in 13 regions of Ukraine, with the geographic scope expanding to include Zhytomyr, Cherkasy, and Poltava Oblasts. 3 people, including 1 child, are reported dead, and 15 people, including 5 children, are injured. An infrastructure object was hit in Zhytomyr Oblast.  
  • According to the official information of juvenile prosecutors, as of the morning of July 25, 2023, 497 children died, and more than 1,077 were injured because of Russian aggression in Ukraine. 
  • [Ukraine’s] Prosecutor’s Office of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and the city of Sevastopol is currently conducting 127 criminal investigations into cases of illegal deprivation of liberty related to pro-Ukrainian positions or participation in pro-Ukrainian events. Additionally, they are investigating one case of improper medical care provided to Ukrainian political prisoners in the occupied Crimea.
  • Representatives of the International Atomic Energy Agency discovered anti-personnel mines on the territory of the Zaporizhzhia NPP in the buffer zone between the barriers of the internal and external perimeters of the site. The mines are located in an area to which station personnel do not have access. 

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