Центр оборонних стратегій

Russia’s war on Ukraine. 27.07.2023

Operational situation

Ukrainian Defense Forces continue their offensive operations on the Bakhmut, Melitopol, and Berdyansk directions. The enemy concentrates its main efforts on the Kupyansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Maryinka directions.

General conclusion:

  • The Ukrainian Defense Forces continued their offensive on at least three sectors of the front line and made advancements, achieving successes near Bakhmut and developing progress in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Despite the enemy’s successes on the Kupyansk direction, the Defense Forces retained their capability for systematic defense. They skillfully drew the enemy into deeply echeloned defenses and engaged in ambushes and firefights to neutralize the enemy’s advances.
  • The Defense Forces do not have sufficient firepower on the Kupyansk and Lyman directions to actively counter the enemy’s offensive. The artillery density is insufficient;
  • The collapse of the defense on the Andriivka – Klishchiivka line forced the Russian forces’ command to deploy a powerful group of strike aircraft (Su-25 and attack helicopters).
  • The liberation of Staromayorske puts Russian control of Urozhaine at risk;
  • The Ukrainian Defense Forces likely conducted troop rotation on the Tokmak direction and increased pressure on the enemy’s 71st motorized rifle regiment of the 42nd  motorized rifle division of 58th Army, which had been already exhausted by previous battles.
  • Russian forces will likely lack reserves for the development of the offensive on Borova and Kupyansk as they have only the 79th and 275th motorized rifle regiments (the 18th motorized rifle division of the 11th Army corps of the Baltic Fleet) on this front, totaling up to 5 motorized infantry/tank battalions within a 30 km stretch.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

  • Over 25  combat clashes took place on different directions.
  • On the Kupyansk direction, the 66th separate mechanized brigade of the Ukrainian Defense Forces successfully repelled enemy  attacks forcing them to engage the main forces of the 4th Russian tank division. Units of the 7th motorized rifle regiment of the 18th motorized rifle division of the 11th army corps of the Russian Baltic Fleet successfully attacked in the direction of Kuzemivka. The enemy’s 15th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 2nd army continued its offensive in the Serhiyivka area, advancing along a 3 km-wide front and penetrating the Defense Forces’ positions by 2.7 km. Russian troops initiated battles for Nadiya (positional battles continued at the Nadiya – Novoyehorivka line) and conducted unsuccessful offensives south of Novoselivske. Units of the Russian 13th tank regiment, which had previously advanced west of Nadiya were forced to withdraw to the Nadiya-Serhiyivka frontier. Advanced units of the Russian 423rd motorized rifle regiment retreated in the area of Novoyehorivka, leaving the area northwest of the village and temporarily ceasing attacks on Tverdokhlibove.
  • On the Lyman direction, Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensives in the area south of Dibrova, Luhansk Oblast. Russian troops advanced to the south of Dibrova, to the west in the Serebryansk Forest area, attacked the Ukrainian Defense Forces from Shypylivka in the direction of Bilohorivka, positional battles continued near the Zhuravka ravine and in the Torske area.
  • On the Bakhmut direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces successfully repelled Russian attacks in the areas of Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, east of Stupochky and near Diliyivka. They continue to conduct successful offensive actions on the southern flank of Bakhmut near Klishchiivka, Andriivka and Kurdyumivka. The Ukrainian Defense Forces attacked the “Akhmat” detachment to the north of Kurdyumivka.
  • Units of the 83rd separate airborne assault brigade of the Russian Airborne Forces, the 4th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 2nd Russian Army corps with the support of the artillery of the Southern military district of the Russian Armed Forces continue to repulse the attacks of the Ukrainian Defense Forces near Klishchiivka. They repelled Ukrainian attacks near Bilohorivka, Berkhivka, Dubovo-Vasylivka and Rozdolivka. Russian forces attacked north of Khromove, north of Klishchiivka, east of Stupochky, near Diliyivka and east of Druzhba.
  • On the Avdiivka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces successfully repelled attacks by Russian troops in the Avdiivka area, and continued to hold back the advance of Russian troops in the Maryinka area.
  • Russian troops repelled the attacks of the Ukrainian Defense Forces near Severne, Vodyane and Maryinka.
  • Zaporizhzhia direction:
    • Vasylivka direction (Pyatykhatky): the 128th separate mountain assault brigade unsuccessfully tried to advance in the Luhove area, Russian troops continue to hold defenses in the Pyatykhatky – Zherebyanky area.
    • Tokmak direction (Robotyne): Russian forces made unsuccessful attempts to restore their lost position northeast of Robotyne.
    • The troops of the “Tavriya” Operational Grouping attacked Robotyne, broke through the Russian defenses in several areas in front of the Russian 810th separate marines brigade of the Black Sea Fleet and 71st motorized rifle regiment (the 42nd motorized rifle division, 58th army). They advanced 2.5 km to the east of Robotyne. The situation was later stabilized by a counterattack by the enemy’s reserves, but their attempts to regain lost positions were unsuccessful.
    • Berdyansk direction (Velyka Novosilka): The forces of the “Tavriya” Operational Grouping achieved success in the area of Staromayorske and made progress to the south of Velyka Novosilka, consolidating their positions on the reached frontlines. Near Staromayorske, the “Tavriya” forces captured a group of Russian servicemen from the 247th air assault regiment of the 7th air assault division, confirming their advancement towards the northeastern part of the village.
  • In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, there were 7 Russian ships  including one cruise missile carrier on combat duty in the Black Sea, 1 in the Sea of Azov, 8 in the Mediterranean including 3 cruise missile carriers. The total salvo is 32 Kalibr cruise missiles.

Change in enemy disposition:

  • Units of the Russian Special Police Force “Rus” are evacuating wounded Russian military personnel near Bakhmut. In the same area, the 58th separate SOF of the 1st army corps of the 8th army was spotted.
  • The Russian military concentrated up to 150 tanks, about 430 armored combat vehicles, up to 190 guns, mortars, and MRLS in the offensive lane towards Borova.

Escalation indicators:

  • The 12th and 13th tank regiments (the 4th tank division of the 1st tank army) have been employed into combat in the Kupyansk direction.

Possible operation situation developments:

  • On the Kupyansk direction, with the advance towards the Pershotravneve – Kopanky – Novoserhiivka – Cherneshchyna line, the enemy will be forced to deploy the remaining reserves, specifically the 30th separate motorized rifle brigade, in their operations. However, even if they achieve some success, the enemy will not have enough strength for an assault on Borova.
  • In the near future, the enemy will resume attacks in the direction of Tverdokhlibove and Kopanky;
  • A Russian attack from the Dzherelne area in the direction of Andriivka by the 12th tank regiment and the 9th BARS detachment should be expected. Units of the Russian 7th motorized rifle regiment and 27th separate motorized rifle brigade will continue their attacks in the direction of Berestove and Stelmakhivka on both flanks in the Novoselivske area;
  • On the Berdyansk direction, the enemy will have to retreat to the Remivka – Volodyne – Staromlynivka – Kermenchyk line by the end of July. The reserves positioned in this sector, including the 5th separate tank brigade, the 131st motorized rifle regiment, and several separate battalions, will be employed to maintain control of Kermenchyk village and the dominant heights around it. The deployment of these reserves for the defense of Novodonetsk will hinder the enemy’s efforts in that area.
  • On the Robotyne direction, where the situation is progressively deteriorating for the enemy, their military command is confronted with a decision – either to maintain their primary line of defense or to deploy the available 1st, 3rd, and 14th “BARS” detachments, along with the SOF detachments of the 22nd and 45th separate SOF brigades, to reinforce the 291st motorized rifle regiment of the 42nd motorized rifle division in order to hold Robotyne.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 27.07.23

Personnel – almost 244,270 people (+530);

Tanks – 4,186 (+9);

Armored combat vehicles – 8,147 (+11);

Artillery systems – 4,745 (+18);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 698 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 457 (0);

Vehicles and fuel tanks –7,229 (+18);

Aircraft – 315 (0);

Helicopters – 310 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 3,996 (+3);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,347 (+40);

Boats/ships – 18 (0).


  • According to information provided by the MOD’s Situation Center, Russian troops shelled 12 regions of Ukraine over the past day. 127 towns and villages and 92 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. Local Military administrations reported a total of 3 killed and 18 injured civilians over the past day. Khmelnytskyi Oblast in the west of Ukraine was attacked in two waves with 4 Kinzhal missiles and Shahed UAVs but all of them were shot down by Ukrainian air defense. Russia also continued to strike civilian port infrastructure in Odesa Oblast with submarine launched Kalibr missiles, damaging an office building and loading equipment. 
  • As of now, over 500 Ukrainian civilian and military doctors are unjustly held in detention in Russia. To mark the Day of the Medical Worker on July 27, the Center for Civil Liberties, in collaboration with the public organization “Military Doctors of Ukraine,” has initiated a comprehensive information and advocacy campaign to protect the rights of medical prisoners affected by the Russian-Ukrainian war and to save them from inhumane and degrading treatment. 
  • During the occupation of Melitopol in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, the Russian occupation authorities took out of the city and illegally “adopted” 230 children, Melitopol mayor Ivan Fedorov said citing numbers made public by the Russian authorities. In addition, children continue to be taken to Russian propaganda camps. In particular, the governor of one of the Russian regions openly stated why Ukrainian children are taken “on vacation” – “to teach them the “true” history, love for the Russian Federation and “what the special military operation really is.”
  • The Russian Ministry of the Interior issued a search warrant for International Criminal Court (ICC) judge Tomoko Akane, who issued a warrant for the arrest of Russian President Vladimir Putin.
  • 14 people, gathered in front of the occupation Supreme court, were detained in Crimea as the court was considering the appeal against the verdict in the case of Nariman Dzhelyal and the Akhtemov brothers via video link. The detainees included close relatives of the defendants, journalists and disabled people who came to listen to the proceedings. Deputy Head of the Crimean Tatar Mejlis, Nariman Dzhelyal who had openly demonstrated his anti-occupation position and the Akhtemov brothers are sentenced to 17, 15, and 13 years in a strict regime colony respectively in the fabricated case of “sabotage on the gas pipeline.”

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