Центр оборонних стратегій

Russia’s war on Ukraine. 30.07.2023

Operational situation

Ukrainian Defense Forces continue their offensive operations on the Bakhmut, Melitopol, and Berdyansk directions. The enemy concentrates its main efforts on the Kupyansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Maryinka directions.

General conclusion: 

  • The Ukrainian Defense Forces continued their offensive on at least three sectors of the front line and made advancements, achieving successes near Bakhmut and developing progress in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
  • The Defense Forces reduced the intensity of their attacks on Klishchiivka due to inclement weather conditions in the area.
  • With limited available reserves, the Russian command will exert maximum efforts to contain the penetration of the “Tavriya” Operational Grouping’s vanguard into their primary defensive line in the Verbove sector or, at the very least, impede any further expansion along the entire sector between Novoprokopivka and Verbove.
  • The Russian command maintains the 136th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade and the 5th Separate Tank Brigade in reserve, within the second echelon, along the Staromlynivka – Kermenchyk line, exercising caution in deploying them into the operation. The 336th Separate Marines Brigade is currently operating in a “fire command” mode: after fulfilling their assigned tasks, the battalions are withdrawn from active combat and return to the brigade’s concentration area near Volodyne.
  • The “Tavriya” Operational Grouping has closed in to a distance of 4 km from the enemy’s defensive position in Staromlynivka. However, its progress is hindered by the ongoing offensive along the Mokri Yaly River and the near-continuous rural agglomeration of Zavitne Bazhannia – Staromlynivka.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

  • Over 36 combat engagements have taken place on various fronts.
  • On the Lyman direction, the Russian forces executed unsuccessful offensive operations in Novoyehorivka, Serebryansk Forest, Kuzemivka, and Bilohorivka areas of Luhansk Oblast. However, they have repelled Ukrainian Defense Forces from the heights between Novoyehorivka and Nadia and thwarted their attacks near Raigorodka and close to Bilohorivka in Donetsk Oblast. The 21st Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Russian Army is currently engaged in territorial clearance operations near Novoyehorivka.
  • On the Bakhmut direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces advanced to the northwestern outskirts of Kurdyumivka and continued to attack Klishchiivka.
  • Russian forces repelled Ukrainian attacks near Andriivka, Yahidne, and Orikhovo-Vasylivka.
  • On the Avdiivka direction, the Defense Forces continue to contain the Russian troop’s advance in the vicinity of Maryinka. Russian forces repelled Ukrainian attacks near Avdiivka, Pervomaiske, and Krasnohorivka.
  • Zaporizhzhia direction:
    • Tokmak direction (Robotyne):  With support from the 3rd “BARS” detachment, units of the 1430th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the Russian territorial troops have temporarily stalled the progress of the “Tavriya” Operational Grouping’s vanguard east of Robotyne in the southern direction. Despite this, the forward units of the “Tavria” Operational Grouping managed to enter the village and engaged in intense battles with the 291st Motorized Rifle Regiment of the adversary for the northern part of the village, on both sides of the road between Novodanylivka and Novoprokopivka.
    • Berdyansk direction (Velyka Novosilka): Enemy units of the 60th separate motorized rifle brigade have withdrawn to Zavitne Bazhannia village and occupied positions on its northern outskirts.
    • Units of the 247th Air Assault Regiment of the 7th Air Assault Division, which faced setbacks from the “Tavriya” Operational Grouping’s vanguard following the liberation of Staromayorske, are conducting a deliberate southward retreat towards the Pryiutne – Zavitne Bazhannia line in an effort to avert the risk of being encircled on their right flank.
    • Enemy units from the 394th and 71st motorized rifle regiments are making efforts to secure their positions in Pryiutne, controlling dominant heights southwest of the village.
    • Russian forces launched counterattacks near Rivnopol, Staromayorske, Urozhaine, and Pryiutne.
    • Between Urozhaine and Novodonetske, the “Tavriya” Operational Grouping successfully breached the defenses of the enemy’s 37th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade on two fronts. The adversary now has limited control over Novodonetske, and the road south of it, heading towards Kermenchyk, is currently in a contested “gray” area. Furthermore, “Tavriya” forces have progressed north of Priyutne.
  • In the Black Sea-Azov Sea Maritime Operations Area, the enemy had the following ships on combat duty: 10 ships in the Black Sea, 1 ship in the Azov Sea, and 8 ships in the Mediterranean Sea.

Change in enemy disposition:  

  • In the forward sectors of the 15th and 21st Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades, the enemy’s command implements troop reinforcements to reestablish offensive capabilities towards Pershotravneve and Vyshneve.
  • In the RF’s “Vostok” Operational Grouping reserve, units of the 35th Army, comprising the 38th and 64th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades, and the 69th Separate Cover Brigade, have concentrated in the Polohy area.
  • The 292nd Self-Propelled Artillery Regiment, a component of the enemy’s 19th Motorized Rifle Division from the 58th Army of the Southern Military District, is currently operating in the Robotyne area.
  • The Russian military command has incorporated Ukrainian individuals residing in the occupied territories into the 33rd “BARS” Detachment “Margelov.”

Possible operation situation developments: 

  • On the Kupyansk direction, with the advance towards the Pershotravneve-Kopanky-Novoserhiivka-Cherneshchyna line, the enemy will be compelled to deploy the remnants of their reserves (the 30th separate motorized rifle brigade). However, even if they achieve some success, the enemy will not have enough strength for an assault on Borova.
  • In the next 2 days, the enemy will deploy additional forces from the 4th Tank Division into the battle area near Raigorodka.
  • In order to contain the breakthrough of the “Tavriya” Operational Grouping’s vanguard to their primary defensive line, the enemy’s command may opt to assemble a tactical group consisting of units from the 100th Separate Ranger Brigade, the 14th “BARS” Detachment, and the 249th Separate Motorized Special Purpose Battalion “Akhmat-Yug” (part of the Federal Service of the Russian National Guard). They could then attempt a counterattack within the defense zone of the Russian 70th Motorized Rifle Regiment (the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division) towards Novodanylivka along the H-08 road.
  • The enemy’s command will not deploy its reserves in the Staromlynivka area, expecting a potential escalation of combat operations in the Mariupol direction (80 km) and the Berdyansk direction (110 km, 68 km from Vuhledar).
  • Russian forces will attempt to cover Vasylivka with units of the 95th motorized rifle regiment, deploying them along the Verkhnya Krynytsia-Lisne line;

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 30.07.23 

Personnel – almost 245,700 people (+480);

Tanks – 4,205 (+14);

Armored combat vehicles – 8,178 (+11);

Artillery systems – 4,795 (+9);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 698 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 459 (+1);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 7,275 (+28);

Aircraft – 315 (0);

Helicopters – 311 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 4,011 (+4);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,347 (0);

Boats/ships – 18 (0).


  • According to information provided by the MOD’s Situation Center, over the past day, Russian forces shelled 9 regions of Ukraine. 133 towns and villages and 46 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. 5 people were reported killed, and at least 24 injured. 
  • On July 29, a Russian rocket hit an educational institution in Sumy. Two people died, and 20 were injured (three remain in the hospital).
  • Two people died due to a rocket attack on Zaporizhzhia. Two people were hospitalized with minor injuries. 
  • Dmytro Lubinets, the Verkhovna Rada Commissioner for Human Rights, emphasized that since the commencement of the full-scale war, the risk of Ukrainian citizens being ensnared in human trafficking has notably risen. As reported by the Office of the Prosecutor General, this year alone, 56 citizens have been identified as victims of human trafficking. Most appeals about falling into the situation of human trafficking concern persons who were in Russian captivity. 
  • Vitaliy Kim, the head of Mykolaiv Oblast Military Administration, stated that there are currently no plans to initiate demining operations in Mykolaiv. There are two main reasons for this decision. Firstly, Mykolayiv Oblast is not part of the “grain agreement.” Secondly, the enemy is positioned on the Kinburn spit, a mere 4 km away from the town of Ochakiv, and as a result, the Ochakiv and Kutsurub communities are subjected to almost daily shelling. Given the ongoing security concerns, it is deemed unsuitable to commence demining operations at this time.
  • As part of their propaganda campaign, the Russian occupation authorities in Crimea recently conducted the “Forum of Young Specialists – Path of Victory “Zerkalo,” bringing over 120 students from universities within the occupied peninsula, along with Russian “siloviki” (representatives of the military and law enforcement agencies). The forum was organized by the Federal Agency for Youth Affairs of the Russian Federation. In the aftermath of the “forum,” an “interagency council” was established to promote the implementation of “military-patriotic education” for young people, as reported by the National Resistance Center of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense.

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