Russia’s war on Ukraine. 01.08.2023

Operational situation

Ukrainian Defense Forces continue their offensive operations on the Bakhmut, Melitopol, and Berdyansk directions. The enemy concentrates its main efforts on the Lyman, Bakhmut and Avdiivka directions.

General conclusion:

• The Ukrainian Defense Forces continued their offensive on at least three sectors of the front line and made advances, achieving successes near Bakhmut and developing progress in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
• The Russian command faces a critical shortage of reserves in the Zaporizhzhia direction. As a result, the 34th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 49th Army and the 247th air assault regiment of the 7th air assault division have been redeployed from the adjacent Kherson Oblast and activated in the area. Preparations are underway to transfer the tactical group of the 7th military base of the 49th Army, the 126th separate coastal defense brigade of the 22nd AC, and the 205th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 49th Army to reinforce the Zaporizhzhia front.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

• Over 40 combat engagements took place in different directions.
• On the Kupyansk direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces maintained a resilient defense, effectively thwarting Russian offensives east of Berestove in Kharkiv Oblast and near Novoselivske in Luhansk Oblast. Russian troops made unsuccessful attempts to advance southward from Novoselivske and dislodge the Ukrainian Defense Forces across the Oskil River. They managed to secure more advantageous positions near Kuzemivka.
• On the Lyman direction, Russian troops seized control of 8 strongholds previously held by the Ukrainian Defense Forces on the outskirts of Raigorodka and Chervonopopivka. They also made advances in the Serebryansk forest area, moving towards Lyman. However, their attempt to advance on Bilohorivka from the southeast was unsuccessful.
• The Ukrainian Defense forces stabilized the defense line near Dibrova after deploying reserves in that direction.
• On the Bakhmut direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces attacked in the area of Dubovo-Vasylivka; intense battles are ongoing near Andriivka and Klishchiivka.
• On the Avdiivka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold back the Russian offensive in the areas of Maryinka and Pobieda.
• Zaporizhzhia direction:
  • Melitopol direction (Pyatykhatky): Russian forces repelled the attack of the 128th separate mountain assault brigade of the “Tavria” Operational Grouping at the Pyatykhatky – Zherebyanka line.
  • Tokmak direction (Robotyne): troops of the “Tavria” Grouping attacked in the direction of Mala Tokmachka and Robotyne.
  • Berdyansk direction (Velyka Novosilka): Russian forces withdrew to positions on the northern bank of the Mokri Yaly river south of Staromayorske. Fighting continues near the T0518 Urozhaine – Velyka Novosilka highway.
  • The “Tavria” Operational Grouping advanced in the Pryiutne area.
• Kherson direction: The Russian “Dnepr” grouping’s operational zone currently comprises only three relatively combat-capable formations – the 126th separate coastal defense brigade of the 22nd Army Corps, the 80th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 14th Army Corps of the Northern Fleet, and the 205th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 49th Army.
• Additionally, the 61st separate marines brigade of the Northern Fleet is maintaining its defensive positions in the vicinity of Hola Prystan, while the 127th separate renaissance brigade of the 22nd Army of the Black Sea Fleet is concentrated in the Oleshky area. The tactical group of the 7th military base, consisting of two battalions, has been assigned to the second echelon to allow for the restoration of its combat capability.
• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, there were 4 Russian ships on combat duty in the Black Sea, 1 in the Sea of Azov, 8 in the Mediterranean. There are 2 cruise missile carriers. The total salvo is 24 Kalibr cruise missiles.

Escalation indicators: 

• The intensity of combat clashes doubled over the past day.

Possible operation situation developments:

• On the Kupyansk direction, the Russian forces are set to renew their offensive operations with the involvement of the 15th and 21st separate motorized rifle brigades. These units will initiate attacks from their established bridgehead along the Zherebets River, extending from Serhiyivka to Novovodyanе.
• The 7th motorized rifle regiment of the 18th motorized rifle division (the 11th Army Corps of the Baltic Fleet), along with the 27th separate motorized rifle brigade, will attempt to seize control of Novoselivske.
• In order to contain the breakthrough of the “Tavriya” Operational Grouping’s vanguard to their primary defensive line, the enemy’s command may opt to assemble a tactical group consisting of units from the 100th Separate Ranger Brigade, the 14th “BARS” Detachment, and the 249th Separate Motorized Special Purpose Battalion “Akhmat-Yug” (part of the Federal Service of the Russian National Guard). They could then attempt a counterattack within the defense zone of the Russian 70th Motorized Rifle Regiment (the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division) towards Novodanylivka along the H-08 road.
• Urozhaine village will be liberated within the next three days.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 01.08.23

Personnel – almost 246,690  people (+500);

Tanks – 4,216 (+5);

Armored combat vehicles – 8,205 (+17);

Artillery systems – 4,839 (+23);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 699 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 462 (+2);

Vehicles and fuel tanks –7,324 (+32);

Aircraft – 315 (0);

Helicopters – 311 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 4,027 (+10);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,347 (0);

Boats/ships – 18 (0).

Humanitarian:

• According to information provided by the MOD’s Situation Center, over the past day Russian forces shelled 9 regions of Ukraine. 138 towns and villages and 125 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. Oblast Military Administrations reported a total of 10 killed and over 100 wounded civilians in 4 Oblasts over the past day.
• Since February 24, pyrotechnic units have been deployed over 64,000 times, successfully neutralizing and removing 416,660 explosive items, as reported by Oleksandr Khorunzhiy, spokesman for the State Emergency Service of Ukraine during a media briefing on August 1. 3,062 of these munitions were aerial bombs.
• Ukraine is still recovering from the consequences of the Kakhovka dam destruction by the Russian Federation. Residents of Nikopol and Marhanets in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast have no centralized water supply, leading to the State Emergency Service having to transport water to these areas on a daily basis. The situation is similarly dire in certain parts of Kherson, particularly in the Korabel district, which bore the brunt of the flooding.
• The National Resistance Center of the Ukrainian MOD reported that in the occupied territories, parents who resist sending their children to Russian schools are facing severe threats of having their parental rights revoked. The occupation authorities have imposed a mandate that both parents must possess Russian passports, or else the child will be denied the right to education, and the parents will also face the loss of their rights.
• As of July 26, 2023, UNESCO has officially verified the damage to 274 sites in Ukraine since February 24, 2022, which includes 117 religious’ sites, 27 museums, 98 historically and/or artistically significant buildings, 19 monuments, 12 libraries, and 1 archive.

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