Russia’s war on Ukraine. 02.08.2023

Operational situation

The Ukrainian Defense Forces continue their offensive operations on the directions of Bakhmut, Melitopol, Tokmak, and Berdyansk. The enemy concentrates its main efforts on the Kupyansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, and Avdiivka directions.

General conclusion: 

• The Ukrainian Defense Forces continued their offensive on at least three sectors of the front line and made advances, achieving successes near Bakhmut and developing progress in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
• Russian commanders in southern Ukraine mainly face shortages of artillery ammunition, lack of reserves, and problems with the logistical support to the flanks of their defending units.
• Units of the 429th motorized rifle regiment of the enemy are gearing up for a counterattack against the positions of the advanced units of the Ukrainian 128th separate mountain assault brigade to the west of Pyatykhatky village.
• The enemy’s defense stability on the Melitopol direction hinges on fortified key points at the villages of Zherebyanky, Luhove, and Verkhnya Krynytsia. 

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

• There have been over 40 military clashes on various fronts. 
• On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces repelled attacks by the Ukrainian Defense Forces near Svatove, Berestove, Raigorodka, Novoyehorivka, and Karmazynivka. Additionally, they launched attacks near Kuzemivka and Berestove and from the Raigorodka-Karmazynivka frontier, aiming to cut off the H26 highway Svatove-Kupyansk and outflank the defenses of the Ukrainian forces in Novoselivske.
• The enemy’s 15th separate motorized rifle brigade has started regrouping in the Raigorodka area and southwards. After withdrawing troops from Nadia village, the enemy’s military command plans to continue attacks towards Pershotravneve and, therefore, is concentrating forces in this area.
• On the Lyman direction, Russian forces have captured the defensive positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces near Chervonopopivka and made advancements close to Torske and Serebryansk Forest.
• The Ukrainian Defense Forces have achieved limited success southeast of Kuzmyne.
• On the Bakhmut direction, the enemy unsuccessfully attempted to regain the lost position north and west of Klishchiivka. The advanced units of the enemy’s 72nd and 57th separate motorized rifle brigades withdrew behind the railway almost along the entire stretch between Bakhmut and Kurdyumivka. 
• The enemy’s command deployed the 1307th motorized rifle regiment of the territorial troops in the direction towards Klishchiivka from the area of Zaitseve.
• The Ukrainian Defense Forces have captured a height near Klishchiivka, adopting new tactics and operating with small assault groups along the Andriivka – Klishchiivka defensive line.
• On the Avdiivka direction, the Defense Forces successfully repelled the attacks of the Russian troops in the area of Avdiivka and continue to hold back the enemy’s advance in the vicinity of Maryinka. 
• Russian forces repelled Ukrainian attacks in the areas of Severne and Maryinka.
• Zaporizhzhia direction: 
• Melitopol direction (Pyatykhatky): The enemy’s forward units have withdrawn to Zherebyanky from the north and will attempt to hold their positions along the T0812 road towards its intersection with the M18 road east of Kamianske village.
• Tokmak direction (Robotyne): The “Tavriya” Operational Grouping forces unsuccessfully attacked the enemy’s 70th motorized rifle regiment (the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 58th Army) in the Robotyne area, and the enemy repelled the attack.
• Berdyansk direction (Velyka Novosilka): The “Tavria” Operational Grouping forces made unsuccessful attempts to cross the dried riverbed between Staromayorske and Urozhaine.
• Russian forces control the heights around Staromayorske and have control over Urozhaine, despite Ukrainian attacks on the village.
• During the past two days, units of the 247th air assault regiment of the 7th Air assault division, supported by units of the 60th separate motorized rifle brigade, made at least two unsuccessful attempts to regain their previous positions in the Staromayorske area.
• In the Black Sea-Azov Sea operational maritime zone, there were the following enemy forces on active duty: in the Black Sea – 6 ships, including 4 missile carriers, in the Azov Sea – 1 ship, in the Mediterranean – 8 ships, including 2 missile carriers, with a total salvo of 28 Kalibr cruise missiles.
• Three unmanned Ukrainian Navy boats attacked the Russian Navy’s patrol ships “Sergey Kotov” and “Vasyl Bykov” at 340 km southwest of Sevastopol. Intercepted radio communications indicate that the enemy ships suffered damage, resulting in one confirmed fatality and five wounded.
• The enemy is installing buoy barriers in Sevastopol Bay.

Change in enemy disposition:  

• In the southern part of Bakhmut, units of the 141st Special Purpose Motorized Regiment of the Russian National Guard (Rosgvardiya) are being deployed. 
• The enemy’s 30th separate motorized rifle brigade is receiving personnel and military equipment reinforcements in the vicinity of Novovodyanе village, with the arrival of up to two motorized rifle regiments (presumably “Storm-Z” units).
• In the southern part of Bakhmut and south of the city, the following units have already been concentrated: the 57th and 72nd separate motorized rifle brigades, the 4th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 2nd Army Corps, the 11th and 83rd separate airborne assault brigades, the 102nd motorized rifle regiment, the 68th and 80th tank regiments of the 150th motorized rifle division, the 1307th motorized rifle regiment of the Territorial Troops, the 14th separate motorized rifle battalion of the Territorial defense of the 2nd Army Corps, the 13th “BARS” Detachment, and the 374th separate rifle battalion of the mobilization reserve of the 2nd Army Corps.
• In the outskirts of Vasylivka, the enemy is relocating units of the 810th separate marines brigade and the 4th Military Base.
• Two tactical groups from the composition of the 305th artillery brigade of the enemy have started moving to new positions closer to the line of contact southwest of Staromlynivka and south of it.

Possible operation situation developments: 

• On the Kupyansk direction, the enemy will resume attacks with the 15th and 21st separate motorized rifle brigades from positions on their bridgehead on the Zherebets River, which stretches from Serhiyivka to Novovodyanе.
• The 7th motorized rifle regiment of the 18th motorized rifle division from the 11th Army Corps of the Baltic Fleet and the 27th separate motorized rifle brigade will attempt to seize control of Novoselivske.
• In order to contain the breakthrough of the “Tavriya” Operational Grouping’s vanguard to their primary defensive line, the enemy’s command may opt to assemble a tactical group consisting of units from the 100th Separate Ranger Brigade, the 14th “BARS” Detachment, and the 249th Separate Motorized Special Purpose Battalion “Akhmat-Yug” (part of the Federal Service of the Russian National Guard). They could then attempt a counterattack within the defense zone of the Russian 70th Motorized Rifle Regiment (the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division) towards Novodanylivka along the H-08 road.
• Urozhaine village will be liberated within the next three days.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 02.08.23 

Personnel – almost 247,230 people (+540);

Tanks – 4,217 (+1);

Armored combat vehicles – 8,213 (+8);

Artillery systems – 4,866 (+27);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 700 (+1);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 463 (+1);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 7,349 (+25);

Aircraft – 315 (0);

Helicopters – 311 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 4,042 (+15);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,347 (0);

Boats/ships – 18 (0).

Humanitarian 

• The Office of the Ukrainian Prosecutor General has confirmed 10,749 civilian deaths, including 499 children at the hands of the Russian occupation forces and 15,599 injuries (including 1,090 children) since the start of the full-scale war. 
• According to the Minister of Reconstruction, Development of Communities, Territories and Infrastructure Oleksandr Kubrakov, the Russian attack on the grain warehouses and elevators destroyed almost 40,000 tons of grain, which was expected by African countries, China, and Israel. 
• Investigators of Mobile Justice Team, part of the UK, EU and US-sponsored Atrocity Crimes Advisory Group (ACA) have identified more than 35 detention centres after having studied 320 cases of detention in Kherson. At least 43% of victims explicitly mentioned torture practices in the detention centers, citing sexual violence as a common tactic imposed by Russian guards on both male and female prisoners. Preliminary results show that military personnel were most likely to experience torture in the detention centers. 
• According to the National Resistance Center of the Ukrainian MOD, the Russian occupation authorities in the temporarily occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast plan to take more than 10,000 local children on a so-called “vacation”. Minors are sent to camps in Dagestan, Chuvashia, Krasnodar Territory, etc. “The project is overseen by Vladimir Putin’s United Russia party. In the camps, children are subjected to ideological indoctrination through propaganda concerts and “educational events”.

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