Russia’s war on Ukraine. 05.08.2023

Operational situation

The Ukrainian Defense Forces continue their offensive operations on the directions of Bakhmut, Melitopol, Tokmak, and Berdyansk. The enemy concentrates its main efforts on the Kupyansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, and Avdiivka directions.

General conclusion:

• The Ukrainian Defense Forces continued their offensive on at least three sectors of the front line and developing progress in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
• Russian forces have carried out offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, in close proximity to Bakhmut, near the border between Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk Oblasts. Additionally, there have advanced in the west of Zaporizhzhia Oblast and in some sections of the front.
• The Ukrainian Defense Forces carried out a series of strikes using aerial and maritime drones against the material-technical and port infrastructure of the Russian Federation in the occupied Crimea and the Krasnodar Krai.
• Artillery and MRLS fire of Ukrainian Defense Forces complicates the logistics of the Russian grouping in the Zaporizhzhia direction;
• The pace of offensive operations conducted by the “Tavriya” operational grouping in the Orikhiv direction has been consistently decreasing for the past three days.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

• Over 36 combat engagements took place in different directions.
• On the Kupyansk direction, Russian troops repelled attacks of the Ukrainian Defense Forces near Novoselivske, Novovodyanе, Karmazynivka. They intensified offensive actions in the Kupyansk, Lyman and Svatove directions, advanced near Novoselivske along the H26 route and broke through the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces north of the settlement. Their advance continues to the north of Kupyansk and to the Oskil River west of Svatove.
• On the Lyman direction, Russian forces repelled Ukrainian attacks near Serebryansk forest, Bilohorivka, Spine and Vesele.
• The enemy’s “Tsentr” operational grouping repelled the Defense Forces’ attacks near Kreminna, counterattacked, achieved tactical successes, and advanced, reaching the eastern outskirts of Bilohorivka. They also launched attacks to the south and southeast of Dibrova.
• On the Bakhmut direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces are holding back the enemy in the areas of Klishchiivka, Kurdyumivka, Berkhiv reservoir, and to the south and southeast of Ivanivske.
• Russian forces maintain control over Andriivka.
• On the Avdiivka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces successfully repelled attacks by Russian troops in the Avdiivka area, and continued to deter the advance of Russian troops in the Maryinka, Staromykhailivka, and Krasnohorivka areas.
• Zaporizhzhia direction:
  • Tokmak direction (Robotyne): Russian forces conducted an unsuccessful offensive near Novopokrovka, repulsed the Ukrainian assault near Robotyne.
  • Berdyansk direction (Velyka Novosilka): Russian forces unsuccessfully tried to restore the lost position in the area of Blahodatne, west of Staromayorske and east of Urozhaine.
  • The “Tavriya” Operational Grouping carried out several assaults near Urozhaine but did not advance.
  • The Ukrainian Defense Forces attacked Russian positions near Mykilske but Russian forces held on to the occupied line.
• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, there were 7 Russian ships, including 1 cruise missile carrier on combat duty in the Black Sea, 3 in the Sea of Azov, 8 in the Mediterranean, including 2 cruise missile carriers. The total salvo is 28 Kalibr cruise missiles.
• “Magura V5” surface unmanned aerial vehicles attacked the Russian tanker “Sig”, which had previously transported aviation kerosene for the Russian Air Force grouping in Syria.

Change in enemy disposition:

• The 150th Russian motorized rifle division of the 8th Army of the Southern Military District was transferred from Maryinka to the Bakhmut direction.

Escalation indicators:

• Ukraine has declared a military threat to navigation in the waters of the ports of Anapa, Novorossiysk, Gelendzhik, Tuapse, Sochi, and Taman.
• On August 4, Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation S. Shoigu visited the advanced command post of the “Center” Russian military grouping in the Lyman direction.

Possible operation situation developments:

• In order to contain the breakthrough of the “Tavriya” Operational Grouping’s vanguard to their primary defensive line, the enemy’s command may opt to assemble a tactical group consisting of units from the 100th Separate Ranger Brigade, the 14th “BARS” Detachment, and the 249th Separate Motorized Special Purpose Battalion “Akhmat-Yug” (part of the Federal Service of the Russian National Guard). They could then attempt a counterattack within the defense zone of the Russian 70th Motorized Rifle Regiment (the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division) towards Novodanylivka along the H-08 road.
• North of Klishchiivka, the enemy is preparing a counterattack with the forces of the 102nd motorized rifle regiment (150th motorized rifle division). Between Klishchiivka and Andriivka, the enemy is preparing a sequence of counterattacks with the forces of the 72nd separate motorized rifle brigade, supported by the 68th tank regiment (150th motorized rifle division). The enemy’s command plans to deploy the 105th rifle regiment of the mobilization reserve in the area of Khromove.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 05.08.23

Personnel – almost 249,110  people (+620);

Tanks – 4,232 (+4);

Armored combat vehicles – 8,251 (+2);

Artillery systems – 4,943 (+32);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 704 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 466 (0);

Vehicles and fuel tanks –7,422 (+30);

Aircraft – 315 (0);

Helicopters – 311 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 4,116 (+12);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,347 (0);

Boats/ships – 18 (0).

Humanitarian:

• According to information provided by the MOD’s Situation Center, over the past day Russian forces shelled 9 regions of Ukraine. 138 towns and villages and 31 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. There are killed and wounded civilians.
• According to the Ukrainian General Staff, in the occupied Mykhailivka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, the Russian military stationed about 100 of its soldiers on the territory of the school. This is a violation of the IHL.
• On the evening of August 5, Russian forces launched Kalibr and Kinzhal missiles at Ukraine, reportedly from Belarus and the vicinity of the Russian city of Tambov. The full extent of the consequences is currently unclear.
• Since the start of the full-scale war, a total of 1,074 Ukrainian children are classified as missing, as reported by the state children’s search portal “Children of War.”
• The ecologically precious steppe region within Dzharylgach National Nature Park has been on fire for 5 consecutive days. This will cause colossal losses to the island’s biodiversity, reports the Ukrainian Nature Conservation Group (UNCG). It is noted that Dzharylgach has been under occupation since the first days of the full-scale invasion, so the special administration of the national park cannot ensure its preservation. The occupying forces have shown no intention of extinguishing the fire.
• According to the legally elected Melitopol mayor Ivan Fedorov, Russian occupation authorities are preparing to hold farce elections in the city and move people there from different Russian regions. He also said that the occupation authorities obstruct the movement of the residents of the occupied territories to the areas controlled by Ukraine. In particular, the Kolotylivka-Pokrovka checkpoint, which served as the most direct route to exit the occupied area through the Sumy region, was abruptly closed just two weeks ago. Furthermore, the Vasylivka checkpoint has remained non-operational for the past seven months.

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