Центр оборонних стратегій

Russia’s war on Ukraine. 12.08.2023

Operational situation

The Defense Forces continue their offensive operation on the Melitopol and Berdyansk directions, consolidating their positions at achieved frontlines and engaging in counter-battery warfare. The adversary concentrates their main efforts on the Kupyansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, and Avdiivka directions.

General conclusion:

  • The Defense Forces continue their offensive operation on the Melitopol and Berdyansk directions and are consolidating their positions on the achieved frontlines;
  • The Russian 2nd motorized rifle division of the 1st tank army became active in the Kupyansk direction, its 15th motorized rifle regiment unsuccessfully attacked Ukrainian Defense Forces from the Pershotravneve area in the direction of the 195.1 height. Concurrently, the 25th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 6th Army attempted to breach through to Synkivka, undertaking operations from the vicinity of Lyman Pershyi.
  • The regrouping of the Russian troops in the Tokmak and Berdyansk directions reveal an interesting operational pattern:
    • In the first echelon are units the loss of which are deemed acceptable. These units are predominantly manned by mobilized personnel (60th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade), proxy forces (Illegal Armed Formation “Vostok” battalion), or Airborne Forces (in relation to the conflict involving Airborne Forces commander General Teplinsky, the Ministry of Defense, and the Chief of the General Staff).
    • In the second echelon (along the Volodyne – Staromlynivka – Kremenchik line), there are military units that have experienced losses in prior engagements but have since been rehabilitated. Their loss is considered permissible but not desirable.
    • The reserves comprise military units where losses are considered undesirable, specifically the 336th Separate Marines Brigade, 136th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, and 218th Tank Regiment. The military units responsible for defense stability are the 22nd and 45th Separate Special Operations Forces Brigades.
  • The Russian command began deploying the second operational echelon in the operational zone of the “Dnepr” grouping at the expense of strategic reserves;
  • Following the RF Chief of the General Staff visit to the forward command post of the Russian “Center” grouping, the Russian forces have altered the main direction of their attack, pivoting it towards the Kupyansk direction, while the Lyman direction assumes a secondary role.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

  • Over 30 combat engagements took place in different directions.
  • On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive actions in the area of Ivanivka and Synkivka.  Fighting continues on the northern outskirts of the latter. Russian forces managed to improve their tactical position near Vilshana and Pershotravneve.
  • Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked near Synkivka and the Mankivka tract, but did not achieve significant results. The backbone of the Ukrainian Defense Forces grouping in this direction is the 14th separate mechanized brigade which opposes 5-6 Russian brigades.
  • On the Lyman direction, Russian troops conducted unsuccessful offensive actions near Nadia and south of Novoselivske, stormed the positions of Ukrainian Defense Forces on the Torske-Yampolivka line and advanced slightly in this area. In the Serebryansk Forest south of Kreminna, units of the 2nd Army Corps of the 8th Army and the “Akhmat” detachment conducted assault operations. The Russian “Center” grouping repulsed the attacks of the Ukrainian Defense Forces in the vicinity of Novoselivske, Novoyehorivka, Kreminna, Bilohorivka, in the area of Zhuravka ravine, Chervonopopivka, and Dibrova.
  • On the Bakhmut direction, Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive actions in the areas of Bohdanivka, Klishchiivka, and Bila Hora of Donetsk Oblast, tried to advance in the direction of the Berkhivka reservoir, and improved their positions near Andriivka.
  • Assault groups of Ukrainian Defense Forces operated near Yahidne and Berkhivka, attacked near Klishchiivka.
  • On the Avdiivka direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold back the advance of Russian troops in the Avdiivka, Maryinka, Krasnohorivka, and Novomykhailivka areas, taking control of parts of the “Trudivska” mine near Krasnohorivka.
  • Defense Forces attacked near Nevelske, Staromykhailivka, Malynivka, Vesele. The battles are ongoing.
  • Zaporizhzhia direction:
    • Melitopol direction (Pyatykhatky): the positional battle continued near Pyatykhatky and Zherebyanky. Units of the 128th separate mountain assault brigade advanced north of the T0812 road, bypassing Zherebyanky from the north. In response, the enemy transferred a detachment of the 45th separate SOF brigade to the defense line of the 429th motorized rifle regiment,  which is positioned north of Hrozove, to the defense line of the 429th motorized rifle regiment.
    • In the Shyroke – Peremozhne section, the 56th air assault regiment of the 7th air assault division moves to the defense in the second echelon, and units of the 95th motorized rifle regiment are deployed in the Pidhirne area.
    • Tokmak direction (Robotyne): “Tavriya” Operational Grouping continues its offensive operations. The 47th separate motorized brigade has advanced to the outskirts of the village and entered Robotyne. The wedge area measures up to 6 km along the front line and up to 1.5 km in depth. The battalion of the 810th separate marines brigade, brought into battle by the Russian command, could not improve the situation. The Russian garrison withdrew and concentrated in the southern part of the village; its supply lines are under the fire control of the “Tavriya” Operational Grouping. The 118th separate motorized  brigade clears Russian positions to the southeast and south of Verbove jointly with the “Azov” National Guard brigade.
    • Russian forces repulsed the attacks of the “Tavriya” Operational Grouping at the Robotyne-Verbove line.
    • Berdyansk direction (Velyka Novosilka): Russian forces made unsuccessful attempts to restore the lost position in the area of Urozhaine, repulsed the attack of the “Tavriya” Operational Grouping near Mykilske. Russian forces are trying to evacuate the wounded from the 37th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 36th Army of the Eastern Military District defending in Urozhaine.
    • The “Tavriya” Operational Grouping bypasses Zavitne Bazhanya from the north-west and advances in the direction of Volodyne creating a threat of encircling Russian forces in Staromayorske.
  • Kherson direction: Ukrainian Defense Forces captured the western half of the Kozachi Laherya. The Russian 1445th motorized rifle regiment of the territorial troops tried to knock out units of Ukrainian Defense Forces from this bridgehead, but failed.
  • Russian troops built a pontoon bridge near the damaged Chongar bridge.
  • In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, there were 4 Russian ships, 1 in the Sea of Azov, 8 in the Mediterranean, including 2 cruise missile carriers. The total salvo is 24 Kalibr cruise missiles.

Change in enemy disposition:

  • The Russian command in the Southern military theater began advancing its strategic reserves – the 18th Army of the Southern Military District and the 25th Army of the Central Military District – to the operational zone.
  • Operational deployment of the 70th motorized rifle division of the 18th Army continues in the operational zone of the “Dnepr” grouping:
    • the 26th motorized rifle regiment of the division has concentrated in the area of Nova Mayachka,
    • the 28th motorized rifle regiment took up the defense at the Kostogryzove-Radensk line,
    • the 24th motorized rifle regiment, the 17th tank regiment and the 81st self-propelled artillery regiment of the 70th motorized rifle division carry out transportation to the Crimean Autonomous Republic.
  • The rotation of the troops of the 20th Army (3rd and 144th motorized rifle divisions) in the Lyman direction, which sustained losses in previous battles and needed replenishment, continues.
  • The 21st and 30th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 2nd Army, and the 35th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 41st Army are also moved to the areas of combat capability restoration.

Possible operation situation developments:

  • On the Kherson direction, the enemy forces will attempt to break through from the northern outskirts of Oleshky towards Dachi village. This maneuver aims to compel the frontline units of the Defense Forces to abandon the bridgehead on the left bank of the Dnipro River in the area of Antonivskyi Bridge.
  • The Russian military concentrates additional forces and means in the operational zone of the “Zapad” grouping, transferring the 272nd tank regiment of the 47th tank division to the area. One of the 2nd or 41st Army brigades should be expected to arrive in the Kupyansk direction after they complete the restoration of their combat capability.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 12.08.23

Personnel – almost 253,290  people (+510);

Tanks – 4,295 (+5);

Armored combat vehicles – 8,324 (+6);

Artillery systems – 5,053 (+10);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 713 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 472 (+1);

Vehicles and fuel tanks –7,523 (+12);

Aircraft – 315 (0);

Helicopters – 313 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 4,201 (+4);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,378 (+1);

Boats/ships – 18 (0).


  • According to information provided by the MOD’s Situation Center, over the past day, Russian forces shelled 10 regions of Ukraine. 118 towns and villages and 79 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. At least 4 people were killed and 13 injured as a result of Russian shelling, as reported by the Oblast Military Administrations.
  • In Orikhiv, Zaporizhzhya Oblast, rescuers extinguished a fire in a 5-story residential building caused by a Russian aerial bomb. On Saturday, as a result of a Russian attack on Orikhiv, a law enforcement officer was killed and 12 more people were injured.
  • The Russian occupation administration is planning to conduct an inventory of “abandoned properties” in the temporarily seized areas of Kherson Oblast. By this, they are referring to assets left behind by Ukrainians who fled the Russian “liberation”. Specially appointed inspectors will search for both movable assets and real estate without owners, as reported by the National Resistance Center of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry. Additionally, the Russian authorities aim to identify properties that are “self-occupied,” which pertains to properties owned by Ukrainians who remain in the occupied territory but have not re-registered their property rights under the illegal Russian administration. If such properties are discovered, the Russians are issuing threats of “nationalizing” them.
  • In Mariupol, the Russian Guard (Rosgvardiya) has intensified its scrutiny of civilians, according to Petro Andryushchenko, an adviser to the mayor of Mariupol. This time, the focus is on the city outskirts and residential areas with single-family homes. These inspections involve searches and confiscations. Andryushchenko noted that individuals are once again disappearing without clear reasons. He further pointed out that these intensified checks in the city began following a rotation of the Russian Guard personnel.

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