Центр оборонних стратегій

Russia’s war on Ukraine. 13.08.2023

Operational situation

The Defense Forces continue their offensive operation on the Melitopol and Berdyansk directions, consolidating their positions at achieved frontlines and engaging in counter-battery warfare. The adversary concentrates their main efforts on the Kupyansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, and Avdiivka directions.

General conclusion: 

  • The Defense Forces continue their offensive operation on the Melitopol and Berdyansk directions and are consolidating their positions on the achieved frontlines;
  • The disruption of the bridges between Crimea and the operational zone compels the Russian military to transport supplies through the ports of Mariupol and Berdyansk. However, this transportation mode cannot fully replace the lost capacity of railway logistics.
  • The deployment pace of Russian strategic reserves does not align with the development’s dynamic in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Considering the challenges that Russian forces are encountering in other areas, the situation is progressively approaching a crisis point.
  • Within the adversary operational grouping “Dnepr,” a replacement of the 7th air assault division with the 70th motorized rifle division of the 18th Army (reserve) aims to reinforce the forces of the “Vostok” grouping on the Zaporizhzhia direction.
  • The Russian command withdrew the 7th air assault division of the airborne forces from the composition of the “Dnepr” grouping and reinforced it with the regiments of the “Vostok” grouping, namely the 56th air assault regiment – Melitopol direction, the 247th air assault regiment – Urozhaine, the 108th air assault regiment – Novoprokopivka.
  • On the Tokmak direction, the enemy’s command has initiated the deployment of forces on the main defensive line; the lack of reserves prevents them from further containing the “Tavriya” Operational Grouping in the supply zone.
  • The breakthrough of the “Tavriya” Grouping in the area of Verbove will have catastrophic consequences for the entire Russian defense in the Azov area.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

  • Over 39 combat engagements took place in different directions.
  • On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive actions northeast Synkivka, north of Kyslivka, and southeast of Andriivka of Kharkiv Oblast.
  • On the Bakhmut direction, Russian forces carried out unsuccessful offensive actions in the areas of Klishchiivka and Bila Hora of Donetsk Oblast.
  • On the Avdiivka direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold back the advance of Russian troops in the Avdiivka and Maryinka areas.
  • Zaporizhzhia direction:
    • Melitopol direction (Pyatykhatky): The forward units of the AFU 128th Separate Mountain Assault Brigade have initiated a notably brisk advancement to the north of Zherebyanky in the direction of Luhove. Luhove represents a crucial defense node for the enemy along the route from Kamianske to Vasylivka. The primary direction of the main assault has shifted northwestward from Pyatykhatky-Zherebyanky. This alteration has placed the Russian 429th Motorized Rifle Regiment in a disadvantageous tactical position due to the elongation of its battle formations.
    • The attempt by the “Tavriya” Operational Grouping to outflank the southern part of Kamianske from the east prompted the enemy command to swiftly relocate the remaining reserves to the Vasylivka area, specifically, battalions of the 810th separate marines brigade of the 4th military base; two detachments of the 45th separate SOF brigade were deployed on the Lisne – Dolynka line in the area of Grozove.
    • Tokmak direction (Robotyne): The “Tavriya” Operational Grouping achieved partial success near Robotyne. The enemy’s 810th separate marines brigade, which had been deployed to this area, suffered personnel losses of up to a company size in the battle.
    • Intense close-quarter combat is ongoing in the northern and eastern parts of Robotyne. Simultaneously, the “Tavriya” Operational Grouping forces are advancing to the east and west of the settlement. They have reached the northern and northeast outskirts of Kopani village, engaging in fierce battles in an attempt to breach the enemy’s defensive line between these villages and have already broken through in one section. The “Tavriya” grouping is expanding the area where it reached the main defensive line in the Verbove area, advancing 2 km to the west from the village.
    • The enemy units of the 291st Motorized Rifle Regiment and the 1430th Motorized Rifle Regiment are attempting to hold the defensive line between Kopani and Robotyne, but maintaining their positions is becoming increasingly problematic for them. The 3rd and 14th BARS detachments were forced to withdraw to a distance of up to 2 km, allowing the “Tavriya” Operational Grouping to closely approach the northeastern outskirts of Novoprokopivka and effectively isolate the Russian tactical groups defending Robotyne and Verbove from one another.
    • Berdyansk direction (Velyka Novosilka): Russian forces made unsuccessful attempts to restore the lost position in the area of Urozhaine, liberated by the troops of the “Tavriya” Operational Grouping (information is constantly updated).
    • To prevent a breakthrough, the enemy’s command deployed the 136th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade from the area of Staromlynivka to a position west of Staromayorske. It conducted an unsuccessful counterattack.
    • The enemy’s 394th Motorized Rifle Regiment is attempting to hold Pryiutne, but the “Tavriya” Grouping has maneuvered around the village from the north and will try to enter the settlement from this direction. This move aims to nullify the enemy’s advantage in fire control of the village from heights southwest of it.
  • In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, there were 7 Russian ships, 1 in the Sea of Azov, 8 in the Mediterranean, including 2 cruise missile carriers. The total salvo is 24 Kalibr cruise missiles. 

Change in enemy disposition:

  • In the Tokmak direction, units of the 1429th motorized rifle regiment of the territorial troops, the 1st and 11th detachments of the BARS, and the 417th separate reconnaissance battalion are deployed on the main defensive line.
  • The 108th air assault regiment of the 7th air assault division is transferred to the Novoprokopivka area.

Escalation indicators:

  • The Russian military deployed its strategic reserves and transferred part of them to Kherson Oblast.

Possible operation situation developments: 

  • On the Kherson direction, the enemy forces will attempt to break through from the northern outskirts of Oleshky towards Dachi village. This maneuver aims to compel the frontline units of the Defense Forces to abandon the bridgehead on the left bank of the Dnipro River in the area of Antonivskyi Bridge.
  • The enemy is concentrating additional forces and resources in the operational zone of the “Zapad” grouping, having transferred the 272nd Tank Regiment of the 47th Tank Division to the area. One of the brigades from the 2nd or 41st Armies is expected to be deployed on the Kupyansk direction after completing their combat readiness restoration.
  • The expansion of the “Tavriya” Grouping’s breakthrough section in the Melitopol direction to Nesteryanka or Myrne could potentially lead to an operational collapse for the enemy due to their lack of available operational reserves.
  • The change of direction by the “Tavriya” Operational Grouping from Novoprokopivka to the Verbove direction could have a crucial significance for the enemy’s efforts to maintain their positions on the main defensive line.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 13.08.23 

Personnel – almost 253,850 people (+560);

Tanks – 4,298 (+3);

Armored combat vehicles – 8,335 (+11);

Artillery systems – 5,072 (+19);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 713 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 477 (+5);

Vehicles and fuel tanks –7,543 (+20);

Aircraft – 315 (0);

Helicopters – 313 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 4,204 (+3);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,378 (0);

Boats/ships – 18 (0).


  • According to information provided by the MOD’s Situation Center, over the past day, Russian forces shelled 9 regions of Ukraine. 114 towns and villages and 49 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. As reported by the Oblast Military Administrations, at least one person was killed and 14 injured as a result of Russian shelling.
  • As a result of the enemy shelling of Kherson Oblast on Sunday, 7 people died, 13 were injured. A day of mourning was announced in the region on Monday, Oleksandr Prokudin, head of Kherson Oblast Military Administration, said. 
  • Over the past day, 111 people, including 36 children, were evacuated from the Kupyansk district of Kharkiv Oblast. Mandatory evacuation was announced there due to intensified Russian shelling. 

Centre for Defence Strategies (CDS) is a Ukrainian security think tank. We operate since 2020.

We publish this brief daily. If you would like to subscribe, please send us an email at cds.dailybrief@gmail.com

The CDC Daily Brief is produced with the support of the Kyiv School of Economics https://kse.ua/

Please note, that we subscribe only verified persons and can decline or cancel the subscription at our own discretion

We are an independent, non-government, non-partisan, and non-profit organization. More at www.defence.org.ua

Our Twitter (in English) – https://twitter.com/defence_centre

Our Facebook (in Ukrainian) – https://www.facebook.com/cds.UA

Our brief is for information only and we verify our information to the best possible extent